Predicting College Football's 2023-24 Bowl Games

In these final days before the 2023 college football season kicks off, an initial round of bowl projections is a proper way to celebrate.

Yes, we're all excited for Week 0 and a flurry of September games.

But the college football world, myself included, always has an eye on how the postseason will shake out.

At this point of the year, exact matchups aren't necessarily meant as the takeaway from these projections. Rather, it's the expectation of these programs hitting that six-win barrier and heading to a bowl game.

Conference selection orders and processes are taken into account as much as possible. However, the ESPN-owned and operated bowls are built for flexibility and could include a wide range of teams.

Bahamas (Dec. 16): Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois
New Orleans (Dec. 16): Troy vs. Middle Tennessee
Cure (Dec. 16): Buffalo vs. Southern Miss
New Mexico (Dec. 16): Wyoming vs. Coastal Carolina
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 18): Eastern Michigan vs. Louisiana
Frisco (Dec. 19): Army vs. East Carolina
Boca Raton (Dec. 21): South Alabama vs. Florida Atlantic
Camellia (Dec. 23): Central Michigan vs. Appalachian State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): San Diego State vs. Toledo
68 Ventures (Dec. 23): Marshall vs. Bowling Green
Hawai'i (Dec. 23): Fresno State vs. New Mexico State
Arizona (Dec. 30): San Jose State vs. Miami (OH)

Moving Up: Central Michigan Chippewas

Last season didn't go as planned for Jim McElwain's team, which dropped from a 9-4 record two years ago to a middling 4-8. Don't expect the Chips to legitimately contend for a MAC crown, but Central can lean on a promising defense to make its return to a bowl.

Sliding Down: East Carolina Pirates

After an eight-win season in 2022, East Carolina may be scrapping for a sixth victory in 2023. Star running back Keaton Mitchell is gone, along with quarterback Holton Ahlers and 1,000-yard receivers Isaiah Winstead and C.J. Johnson. The immediate nonconference slate of Michigan, Marshall and Appalachian State is full of thorns, too.

LA (Dec. 16): UCLA vs. Air Force
Gasparilla (Dec. 22): Mississippi State vs. Western Kentucky
Birmingham (Dec. 23): Auburn vs. Liberty
Armed Forces (Dec. 23): UCF vs. UTSA
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Maryland vs. Ohio
First Responder (Dec. 26): SMU vs. Oklahoma State
Military (Dec. 27): Wake Forest vs. Memphis
Fenway (Dec. 28): Syracuse vs. Tulane

Moving Up: Ohio Bobcats

Ohio probably won't appear as a lead story in national headlines, but this offense should be extremely fun. If you said the Bobcats were actually the MAC's best team in 2022, I wouldn't argue. They had a terrific chance at a conference crown before dual-threat quarterback Kurtis Rourke's knee injury in November, and he's back healthy.

Sliding Down: UCLA Bruins

Dorian Thompson-Robinson guided the Bruins to consecutive eight-win years. However, the longtime UCLA signal-caller is now in the NFL, creating a major quarterback competition that seems destined to linger into the season. If three of Collin Schlee, Ethan Garbers, Dante Moore and Justyn Martin started at some point, it wouldn't be surprising.

Independence (Dec. 16): Arizona vs. Texas Tech
Las Vegas (Dec. 23): Nebraska vs. Oregon
Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26): Kansas vs. Iowa
Mayo (Dec. 27): Duke vs. Arkansas
Holiday (Dec. 27): Pitt vs. Washington State
Texas (Dec. 27): TCU vs. Florida
Pinstripe (Dec. 28): North Carolina State vs. Illinois
Pop-Tarts (Dec. 28): Kansas State vs. Notre Dame
Alamo (Dec. 28): Oklahoma vs. Washington

Moving Up: Nebraska Cornhuskers

I do not feel comfortable about this prediction. Matt Rhule inherited a mess, so there's not really much optimism for Nebraska to orchestrate a rapid rise. On the other hand, the combination of a favorable nonconference slate and a mediocre Big Ten West offers the Huskers a path to its first bowl appearance in seven years.

Moving Down: TCU Horned Frogs

Lighting can't possibly strike twice, right? TCU stunned the college football world with its 12-0 regular season and trip to the national championship last year. Since the offense has endured a near-complete overhaul, simply earning bowl eligibility would be a fine season for TCU.

Editor's note: Independence, Holiday and Alamo Bowl projection have been corrected since the initial publish to reflect the proper placement of Pac-12 teams.

Gator (Dec. 29): Miami vs. Kentucky
Sun (Dec. 29): Louisville vs. Oregon State
Liberty (Dec. 29): Baylor vs. Texas A&M
Music City (Dec. 30): Minnesota vs. South Carolina
ReliaQuest (Jan. 1): North Carolina vs. Ole Miss
Citrus (Jan. 1): Wisconsin vs. Tennessee

Moving Up: Texas A&M Aggies

To be perfectly blunt, this is not high praise for Texas A&M. The reality is the Aggies severely underperformed in 2022, plummeting from a No. 6 preseason ranking to a seven-loss year. But it feels unlikely they'll miss a bowl for a second straight season, though the school may figure out how to pay Jimbo Fisher's $77 million buyout if that happened.

Sliding Down: North Carolina Tar Heels

Conversely don't consider this a major problem for North Carolina. In fact, the ReliaQuest Bowl—formerly known as the Outback Bowl—is one of the more prestigious non-New Year's Six games. Still, the Tar Heels won nine games and played in the ACC Championship Game. They probably won't repeat those outcomes, especially now that the ACC doesn't have divisions to determine its title matchup.

Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29): Texas vs. LSU
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30): Alabama vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Florida State vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1): Boise State vs. Utah

Moving Up: Texas Longhorns

In each of the program's last three postseason trips, Texas has headed to the Alamo Bowl. However, the Longhorns may trade the jaunt to San Antonio for a trip to only its second New Year's Six appearance. This projection is also a fun precursor to the school's looming switch to the SEC, particularly since Texas and LSU aren't slated to play in 2024.

Sliding Down: Ohio State Buckeyes

Two things are inferred here: Ohio State will not dethrone Michigan in the Big Ten, and the rest of the country doesn't cooperate for the Buckeyes to sneak into the College Football Playoff again. I still believe OSU wins 11 games, yet that's one short of what the Buckeyes likely need.

Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Michigan vs. USC
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Georgia vs. Clemson

National Championship (Jan. 8): Georgia vs. Michigan

Since the inception of the College Football Playoff in 2014 (and excluding that year, of course), at least two programs have made return trips to the championship tournament in every season but one.

Georgia and Michigan, check and check.

The newcomers in this projection are Clemson—although the ACC power is hardly a new face to the CFP—and USC. Clemson should be able to navigate the ACC, provided it takes down Florida State. USC, meanwhile, has assembled a talented roster that can outlast a deep Pac-12 in what should be Caleb Williams' final year in college.

For lovers of tradition, one last Rose Bowl pitting the Big Ten champion against the Pac-12 winner would be a fitting farewell.

This season, the College Football Playoff national championship will be played in Houston, Texas.