NFL Picks Week 15: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change

Over the last few weeks, prime-time upsets have been a theme in the NFL. However, we didn't see one in the Week 15 opener on Thursday night. The Las Vegas Raiders were slight favorites over the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Raiders won big.

And by big, we mean that Las Vegas won in a 63-21 blowout.

While it's difficult to envision future Week 15 games being quite that lopsided, there are a few other favorites we like heading into the weekend. Let's dive into those matchups and examine the latest lines.

Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

Yes, we're backing the up-and-down Atlanta Falcons on the road in a divisional game. It may seem odd a week after Atlanta blew a late lead to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home. However, the Falcons are visiting the rudderless Carolina Panthers this week.

To be fair, Carolina is not a pushover team. Despite a one-win record, they've shown a lot of fight throughout the season—certainly more than we saw from the Chargers on Thursday—and their pass defense is formidable.

However, the Panthers have been vulnerable to the run, and Atlanta has a stellar backfield duo in Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson. As long as quarterback Desmond Ridder can protect the football and make the occasional play, Atlanta's offense should be in good shape here.

The Falcons' 11th-ranked defense, meanwhile, is likely to make life difficult for rookie quarterback Bryce Young. The No. 1 overall pick has really struggled to get going this season, and Carolina's in-season coaching changes haven't helped. As long as Atlanta's run defense doesn't collapse like it did against Tampa Bay at times last Sunday, the Falcons should win fairly convincingly.

This is a large line for a divisional game, but there are a few reasons why the San Francisco 49ers should cover.

The first is that offensive playmakers Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are all relatively healthy. It's an elite skill group that can score points in bunches against virtually any defense.

Secondly, the Arizona Cardinals' 23rd-ranked defense hasn't done a great job of slowing the opposition this year—though it did stymie the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks ago.

Lastly, the 49ers will be highly motivated to win this one. They share a 10-3 record with the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles but own the head-to-head tiebreaker over both. To claim the NFC's NO. 1 seed, San Francisco only needs to win out.

The Cardinals are coming off the bye and can get enough from Kyler Murray, James Connor and the offense to make things interesting for a bit—as the Seattle Seahawks did against the 49ers last week. Like last week, however, San Francisco should eventually hit the gas and pull away from its divisional foe.

The 49ers only beat the Seahawks by 12. Expect them to seek a better showing and deliver a bigger win this week.

Don't look now, but the Los Angeles Rams have emerged as legitimate threats in the NFC playoff race. The Rams just took the vaunted Baltimore Ravens to overtime, and they have an opportunity to get back to .500 against the Washington Commanders this week.

Expect Los Angeles to do exactly that.

While the Rams have dealt with their fair share of injuries during the 2023 season, they're one of the healthier teams in the conference right now. Offensive tackle Rob Havenstein (groin) missed practice this week, but playmakers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are healthy.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford, meanwhile, is back to playing like a top NFL quarterback.

Los Angeles is going to present major problems for a Washington defense ranked 32nd in net yards per pass attempt allowed and passing yards allowed. While Sam Howell and the Commanders offense has had some terrific games, it's been difficult to offset poor defense.

Stafford and Co. dropped 36 points on a good Cleveland Browns defense in L.A. two weeks ago. The Rams should have even more success against Washington, and the Commanders will struggle to keep pace.

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