College Football Picks: Week 14 Predictions for Every Game
After a long, grueling regular season for 20 programs, the most important 60 minutes of their campaigns are up next.
Ten trophies and four bids to the College Football Playoff are at stake during conference championship week.
Highlighted by the Pac-12 Championship Game, every single matchup in the Power Five conferences can alter the CFP picture. Three showdowns within Group of Five leagues could impact New Year's Six bowls, too.
It's a decent time to start clearing your calendar, because there's a whole lot of meaningful football on the slate this weekend.
The rankings are a reflection of the latest CFP Top 25.
Friday's Games
C-USA: New Mexico State (10-3) at No. 24 Liberty (12-0), 7 p.m. ET
Liberty is the only ranked G5 team other than Tulane, so the Flames are suddenly huge SMU fans. But they need to handle a surging New Mexico State roster that recently upset Auburn and is riding an eight-game winning streak. Liberty's run-first offense has been so overwhelming, though, that a loss at home—especially with a possible New Year's Six bowl invite on the line—would be stunning.
Prediction: Liberty 36, New Mexico State 24
Pac-12: No. 5 Oregon (11-1) vs. No. 3 Washington (12-0), 8 p.m. ET
For basically eight straight weeks, Washington has done enough. It's both a dangerous way to live and very impressive to keep winning close games, and the latter point should not be undervalued. In the meantime, however, Oregon has showcased a devastatingly efficient offense with a stingy defense. Missed opportunities doomed Oregon in the October loss to UW, but the rematch goes to the Ducks—and quarterback Bo Nix locks up the Heisman Trophy.
Prediction: Oregon 38, Washington 27
Saturday's Group of 5 Championships
MAC: Miami (Ohio) (10-2) vs. Toledo (11-1), Noon ET
Defense has carried Miami all year, and the unit has become particularly valuable since a leg injury ended quarterback Brett Gabbert's season in mid-October. Incidentally, that moment happened in a 21-17 loss to Toledo. Miami has done an admirable job navigating four games without Gabbert, but his absence will be evident opposite a Toledo defense that isn't far behind the RedHawks' key strength.
Prediction: Toledo 24, Miami 17
MWC: Boise State (7-5) at UNLV (9-3), 3 p.m. ET
Win the right ones, you know? Boise State dropped five games overall yet finished 6-2 in conference play, edging San Jose State in a tiebreaker to face UNLV. The even stranger part is the school fired head coach Andy Avalos in mid-November. But this bizarre situation has an excellent chance of leading to a Mountain West crown if Boise's rushing attack takes advantage of a Rebels defense that has ceded 5.7 yards per carry over the last two games.
Prediction: Boise State 27, UNLV 23
AAC: SMU (10-2) at No. 22 Tulane (11-1), 4 p.m. ET
It's a downright shame that Preston Stone (broken leg) is now unavailable for SMU, which has been sizzling for two months and notched eight straight wins. Redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings is the next man up, and we've seen backup QBs work miracles in the past. But I can't pick against Tulane at home opposite a first-time starter.
Prediction: Tulane 26, SMU 20
Sun Belt: Appalachian State (8-4) at Troy (10-2), 4 p.m. ET
James Madison's rout of Coastal Carolina allowed App State to slide into a matchup at Troy, which arrives on a nine-game winning streak. App State's offense is peaking at the perfect time, but Troy has surrendered more than 17 points just once in the last two months. That pesky defense propels Troy to a second Sun Belt title in a row.
Prediction: Troy 28, Appalachian State 24
Saturday's Power 5 Championships
Big 12: No. 18 Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. No. 7 Texas (11-1), Noon ET
After not having a regular-season clash for the first time since the formation of the Big 12 in 1996, the longtime foes still managed to create a matchup. Really, the outlook seems simple. If Texas can contain OSU running back Ollie Gordon II, the Longhorns should win. Given that Texas is fifth nationally at 2.9 yards allowed per carry, there's a good chance—despite Gordon's immense talent—that it happens.
Prediction: Texas 31, Oklahoma State 23
SEC: No. 8 Alabama (11-1) vs. No. 1 Georgia (12-0), 4 p.m. ET
Whether or not Georgia contains Jalen Milroe as a runner may shape this result. Alabama's quarterback has thrown for a stellar 10.6 yards per attempt, so his passing ability should not be discounted. However, the excellence of UGA's secondary will likely force Milroe into plenty of scrambling moments, and his elusiveness has been vital for Bama recently. Georgia limits his impact and returns to the CFP.
Prediction: Georgia 34, Alabama 24
ACC: No. 14 Louisville (10-2) vs. No. 4 Florida State (12-0), 8 p.m. ET
Defense, defense, defense. That's the story in the ACC championship, which is remarkably the third game involving a program that has an injured QB. Fortunately for Florida State, it has held eight straight teams to 20 points or fewer. One final time, the 'Noles survive—and punch a ticket to the College Football Playoff.
Prediction: Florida State 23, Louisville 19
Big Ten: No. 16 Iowa (10-2) vs. No. 2 Michigan (12-0), 8 p.m. ET
First to, what, 17 points? Michigan leads the nation with 10.3 allowed per game, while Iowa is fourth at 12.2. Look, there's a strong possibility the Hawkeyes keep U-M below its season-worst 24 points. But I'm struggling to envision a reality in which a porous Iowa offense actually moves the ball.
Prediction: Michigan 27, Iowa 7
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
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