College Football Picks: Week 12 Predictions for Every Game
Only two weeks remain in the 2023 regular season, and conference championships hang in the balance.
While the SEC, Conference USA and MAC have the title matchup set, only the ACC (Florida State) and Sun Belt (Troy) otherwise have a program that has clinched a spot.
But that can change in a major way in Week 12.
In the Power Five alone, Washington, Texas, Louisville and Iowa have win-and-in scenarios. For every possible clincher, though, a spoiler is lurking. Oregon State, Iowa State, Miami and Illinois would love to smash—or even simply delay—the championship dream of their respective opponents.
On to the predictions. The ranking is a reflection of the latest AP Top 25.
AP Nos. 25-21
Massachusetts (3-7) at No. 25 Liberty (10-0), 1 p.m. ET
Victories over Army and Merrimack have pulled UMass out of the cellar in the standings, but Liberty is a major step up in competition. Liberty moves within a game of a perfect regular season.
Prediction: Liberty 48, UMass 14
No. 24 Oklahoma State (7-3) at Houston (4-6), 4 p.m. ET
Not only did Oklahoma State's winning streak end last week, but UCF straight-up steamrolled the Pokes. That performance is certainly a concern with another road game on the way, although Oklahoma State should be able to bounce back opposite a shaky Houston secondary.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, Houston 27
No. 23 Kansas State (7-3) at Kansas (7-3), 7 p.m. ET
Kansas is aiming to snap a 14-game skid in the rivalry. While it clearly would help if the Jayhawks aren't down to a third-string quarterback as they were in Week 11's loss to Texas Tech, Kansas State is built to grind out a win—no matter who's under center for KU.
Prediction: Kansas State 31, Kansas 28
No. 22 North Carolina (8-2) at Clemson (6-4), 3:30 p.m. ET
Poor red-zone execution nearly crushed UNC in a double-overtime win against Duke on Saturday. Meanwhile, that's been a major problem for Clemson all season. Any guesses for which team will be...less bad in that department? I'll lean toward Clemson's defense at home. Uncomfortably.
Prediction: Clemson 27, North Carolina 26
No. 1 Georgia (10-0) at No. 21 Tennessee (7-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
See No. 1 Georgia for prediction.
AP Nos. 20-16
Wake Forest (4-6) at No. 20 Notre Dame (7-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
Although a seventh loss wouldn't totally remove Wake Forest from the hunt for bowl eligibility—thanks, APR scores!—the Demon Deacons should be playing with some desperation in South Bend. The problem is Notre Dame's sturdy defense is likely to silence a Wake offense that hasn't cracked 21 points since mid-September.
Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Wake Forest 13
No. 16 Utah (7-3) at No. 19 Arizona (7-3), 2:30 p.m. ET
See No. 16 Utah for prediction.
Appalachian State (6-4) at No. 18 James Madison (10-0), 2 p.m. ET
Last weekend, App State impressively smacked Georgia State 42-14. Oddly enough, that was the exact score of JMU's recent triumph over Georgia State. James Madison is the clear favorite, but App State deserves to be taken more seriously than I would've said a month ago.
Prediction: James Madison 34, Appalachian State 24
No. 17 Tulane (9-1) at Florida Atlantic (4-6), Noon ET
Tulane continues to live dangerously, so the teams' records don't feel important right now. I'm inclined to believe FAU's inefficient offense—one ranked 104th in yards per play—won't be able to score enough to spring an upset. But I don't really trust Tulane to win easily, either.
Prediction: Tulane 24, Florida Atlantic 16
No. 16 Utah (7-3) at No. 19 Arizona (7-3), 2:30 p.m. ET
As feisty as Utah had been defensively this season, the performance has dipped noticeably. Yes, that's a function of competition; USC, Oregon and Washington all topped six-plus yards per play. However, Utah only defeated USC because of its horrid defense. Arizona's surging offense is a tough matchup for Utah right now.
Prediction: Arizona 27, Utah 23
AP Nos. 15-11
Georgia State (6-4) at No. 15 LSU (7-3), 8 p.m. ET
Back-to-back 28-point losses for Georgia State against James Madison and Appalachian State are, oh, just highly problematic entering a clash with Heisman Trophy candidate Jayden Daniels.
Prediction: LSU 52, Georgia State 24
No. 14 Oklahoma (8-2) at BYU (5-5), Noon ET
Since defeating Texas Tech a month ago, BYU has totaled 26 points and given up 117 in losses to Texas, West Virginia and Iowa State. Let's not complicate this prediction, you know?
Prediction: Oklahoma 38, BYU 14
Louisiana-Monroe (2-8) at No. 13 Ole Miss (8-2), Noon ET
For comparison's sake, Texas A&M rolled to a 47-3 win over Louisiana-Monroe this season. Ole Miss had a rough showing at Georgia last weekend, but this one shouldn't be very competitive.
Prediction: Ole Miss 51, ULM 17
Rutgers (6-4) at No. 12 Penn State (8-2), Noon ET
After a dismal day on offense in the loss to Michigan, Penn State fired coordinator Mike Yurcich. Given that Rutgers has ceded only 18.3 points per game, the Nittany Lions may struggle to score yet again. Penn State's defense will be the best unit on the field, though.
Prediction: Penn State 23, Rutgers 13
Florida (5-5) at No. 11 Missouri (8-2), 7:30 p.m. ET
Missouri rolled to an emphatic 36-7 win over Tennessee last weekend. Florida, meanwhile, has yielded 39-plus points in four straight games. Billy Napier's hot seat probably won't get any cooler.
Prediction: Missouri 41, Florida 27
AP Nos. 10-6
No. 5 Washington (10-0) at No. 10 Oregon State (8-2), 7:30 p.m. ET
See No. 5 Washington for prediction.
No. 9 Louisville (9-1) at Miami (6-4), Noon ET
Miami's mini-quarterback carousel has spun back to Tyler Van Dyke, who'd been benched in favor of Emory Williams—whose season just ended with an arm injury. Although the 'Canes can be stingy on defense, their ineffectiveness on offense in the last month is impossible to ignore. Louisville should be able to outlast Miami and seal a spot in the ACC Championship Game opposite Florida State.
Prediction: Louisville 23, Miami 20
Chattanooga (7-3) at No. 8 Alabama (9-1), Noon ET
Chattanooga is a quality lower-division team on the fringe of making the FCS playoffs. Alabama is Alabama.
Prediction: Alabama 45, Chattanooga 7
No. 7 Texas (9-1) at Iowa State (6-4), 8 p.m. ET
Iowa State locked in bowl eligibility with a rout of BYU last weekend. Still, the Cyclones are in decent position to pull off an upset. Texas hasn't been convincing lately, and ISU's secondary is an opportunistic group. I believe Texas wins but is probably headed for a nerve-testing finish on the road.
Prediction: Texas 27, Iowa State 24
No. 6 Oregon (9-1) at Arizona State (3-7), 4 p.m. ET
Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham served as Oregon's offensive coordinator last season and began to unleash the best version of Bo Nix. In that respect, this is a fun reunion. On the field, however, ASU likely won't be enjoying much against a torrid Oregon offense and pesky defense.
Prediction: Oregon 37, Arizona State 20
AP Nos. 5-1
No. 5 Washington (10-0) at No. 10 Oregon State (8-2), 7:30 p.m. ET
Oregon State has performed quite well at home in 2023, and Washington has basically just survived for about six weeks now. While a loss wouldn't crush Washington's hopes for the College Football Playoff—and I think the Huskies recover to make it, for the record—their margin for error may disappear this weekend.
Prediction: Oregon State 33, Washington 31
North Alabama (3-7) at No. 4 Florida State (10-0), 6:30 p.m. ET
Consider this a tune-up game before Florida State travels to Florida in the regular-season finale.
Prediction: Florida State 49, North Alabama 7
Minnesota (5-5) at No. 3 Ohio State (10-0), 4 p.m. ET
Losses to Illinois and Purdue quickly have Minnesota on the brink of missing a bowl. Since the Gophers host a reeling Wisconsin squad next week, they're still in a manageable spot. But they're certainly not expected to truly compete with Ohio State.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Minnesota 10
No. 2 Michigan (10-0) at Maryland (6-4), Noon ET
With or without Jim Harbaugh—whose hearing for a temporary restraining order is on Friday—the Wolverines have a great opportunity on Saturday. Michigan can become the first program to reach 1,000 all-time wins. Given how dominant the Wolverines have been defensively and Maryland's recent struggles on offense, that's a likely outcome.
Prediction: Michigan 34, Maryland 13
No. 1 Georgia (10-0) at No. 21 Tennessee (7-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
At least the Vols are at home for this showdown, but Week 11 brought some wildly opposing results for these teams. Georgia stomped Ole Miss to seal the SEC East, while Tennessee lost badly at Missouri. Difficult to see that changing so dramatically in a week.
Prediction: Georgia 33, Tennessee 20
Rest of the Slate, Part I
Boston College (6-4) at Pitt (2-8), Thursday, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Boston College 26, Pitt 20
South Florida (5-5) at UTSA (7-3), Friday, 9 p.m. ET
Prediction: UTSA 37, USF 24
Colorado (4-6) at Washington State (4-6), Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Colorado 27, Washington State 23
Michigan State (3-7) at Indiana (3-7), Noon ET
Prediction: Indiana 31, Michigan State 24
Purdue (3-7) at Northwestern (5-5), Noon ET
Prediction: Northwestern 28, Purdue 20
Southern Miss (3-7) at Mississippi State (4-6), Noon ET
Prediction: Mississippi State 31, Southern Miss 16
Abilene Christian (5-5) at Texas A&M (6-4), Noon ET
Prediction: Texas A&M 45, Abilene Christian 13
SMU (8-2) at Memphis (8-2), Noon ET
Prediction: SMU 41, Memphis 33
East Carolina (2-8) at Navy (4-5), Noon ET
Prediction: Navy 24, East Carolina 14
Coastal Carolina (7-3) at Army (4-6), Noon ET
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 21, Army 17
Sacred Heart (2-8) at Connecticut (1-9), Noon ET
Prediction: UConn 31, Sacred Heart 14
Rice (4-6) at Charlotte (3-7), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Rice 33, Charlotte 27
Louisiana Tech (3-8) at Jacksonville State (7-3), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Jacksonville State 42, Louisiana Tech 28
UTEP (3-7) at Middle Tennessee (3-7), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: MTSU 27, UTEP 24
Kent State (1-9) at Ball State (3-7), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Ball State 30, Kent State 17
Hawai'i (4-7) at Wyoming (6-4), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Wyoming 28, Hawai'i 20
Rest of the Slate, Part II
Cincinnati (3-7) at West Virginia (6-4), 2:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: West Virginia 35, Cincinnati 19
Duke (6-4) at Virginia (2-8), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: Duke 24, Virginia 20
North Texas (3-7) at Tulsa (3-7), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: Tulsa 34, North Texas 31
Temple (3-7) at UAB (3-7), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: UAB 37, Temple 31
Nevada (2-8) at Colorado State (4-6), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: Colorado State 29, Nevada 17
Texas State (6-4) at Arkansas State (5-5), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: Arkansas State 33, Texas State 31
North Carolina State (7-3) at Virginia Tech (5-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: NC State 26, Virginia Tech 23
Illinois (5-5) at Iowa (8-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Iowa 14, Illinois 9
Baylor (3-7) at TCU (4-6), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: TCU 27, Baylor 22
UCLA (6-4) at USC (7-4), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: USC 34, UCLA 29
Sam Houston (2-8) at Western Kentucky (5-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: WKU 27, Sam Houston 14
UNLV (8-2) at Air Force (8-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: UNLV 28, Air Force 21
Louisiana (5-5) at Troy (8-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Troy 24, Louisiana 16
New Mexico State (8-3) at Auburn (6-4), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Auburn 37, NMSU 17
Rest of the Slate, Part III
UCF (5-5) at Texas Tech (5-5), 5 p.m. ET
Prediction: Texas Tech 31, UCF 27
Marshall (5-5) at South Alabama (5-5), 5 p.m. ET
Prediction: South Alabama 26, Marshall 23
Old Dominion (4-6) at Georgia Southern (6-4), 6 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia Southern 30, Old Dominion 24
Cal (4-6) at Stanford (3-7). 6:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Stanford 34, Cal 31
Boise State (5-5) at Utah State (5-5), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Boise State 27, Utah State 24
Nebraska (5-5) at Wisconsin (5-5), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Wisconsin 17, Nebraska 14
Kentucky (6-4) at South Carolina (4-6), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Kentucky 27, South Carolina 23
Florida International (4-6) at Arkansas (3-7), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Arkansas 38, FIU 20
Syracuse (5-5) at Georgia Tech (5-5), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia Tech 30, Syracuse 24
New Mexico (3-7) at Fresno State (8-2), 10:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Fresno State 42, New Mexico 17
San Diego State (3-7) at San Jose State (5-5), 10:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: San Jose State 38, San Diego State 16