UFC 294: Head-to-Toe Breakdown for Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski II

By now, you've surely heard the news. Alexander Volkanovski will get another crack at UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev—on a little over 10 days notice.

Russia's Makhachev had originally been set to defend his belt against Charles Oliveira at UFC 294, which goes down on October 21 in Abu Dhabi, but when the Brazilian suffered a cut to his eyebrow in training, the champ shifted his focus to Australia's Volkanovski, who holds the UFC's featherweight title and is widely considered the best fighter in the sport.

It will be the second time Makhachev and Volkanovski have met in the Octagon. Their first meeting occurred at UFC 284 in February, when Makhachev defended his belt with a narrow decision win, dashing Volkanovski's dreams of becoming a two-division champion by the thinnest of margins.

There has been talk of a rematch between the two ever since then, but it did not look like an immediate part of the UFC's plan, as Volkanovski was booked for a title defense against Yair Rodriguez in July—which he won handily—and Makhachev was matched up with Oliveira.

In the end, we will get a rematch between the two stars sooner than anybody anticipated, and after the razor close nature of their first fight, it's anybody's guess who will come out on top.

Keep scrolling to see how the two UFC champions match up on paper, and for our best guess at the winner.

Ahead of Volkanovski and Makhachev's first meeting, the prevailing opinion was that the former was the superior striker of the two. That may still be true, but the first fight proved that the two champions are far more evenly matched on the feet than most originally anticipated. The southpaw Makhachev even hurt Volkanovski with a straight left early in the fight, though that favour was returned with a right hand in Round 5.

The striking exchanges in the rematch should be competitive as well, and it would not be surprising to see either fighter do damage on the feet—potentially with fight-ending consequences.

Still, it's hard not to give Volkanovski a slight edge in this department. The featherweight spends a lot more time striking than Makhachev, who prefers to grapple, and the stats show that he is the more effective fighter in this department.

Not only did he out-land Makhachev 70-57 in their first fight, but he also lands 6.25 significant strikes per minute, on average, to Makhachev's 2.35, which works out to almost three times as many.

Volkanovski can't risk getting complacent on the feet with Makhachev—and after their first fight he surely knows this—but it still seems like it's in his best interest to keep this one upright.

Edge: Volkanovski

Makhachev and Volkanovski are both world-class grapplers, but so far, Makhachev has shown a greater proficiency in terms of submissions.

Just look at the numbers.

The Russian lightweight has won 11 fights by submission, while his Australian rival has done so just three times. Makhachev also hunts for submissions with far greater verve, attempting an average of 1.1 per 15 minutes in the Octagon compared to Volkanovski's 0.2.

The interesting counterpoint to all of this is that Volkanovski has some of the most bulletproof submission defense in all of MMA. The featherweight champ has never been submitted in 28 fights, despite some very close calls in his 2021 win over Brian Ortega and his first fight with Makhachev.

So while you've got to give the submission edge to Makhachev, that is no guarantee the Russian's submission skills will be effective in this fight.

Edge: Makhachev

Makhachev and Volkanovski are both excellent wrestlers and routinely use their skills in this department to win their fights. Still, it's hard not give Makhachev the edge in this area on paper.

All the proof you need exists in the Russian's first fight with Volkanovski. As close as the bout was, Makhachev completed four takedowns over five rounds, which he used to rack up over seven minutes of control time on the mat—surely a big part of what convinced the judges he deserved the nod. Makhachev also denied all four of Volkanovski's takedown attempts in the fight, proving that, as a wrestler, he is as defensively sound as he is offensively.

Of course, it's worth noting that Volkanovski has some great defense himself, thwarting five of Makhachev's takedown attempts to counterbalance the four he gave up. The featherweight champ also scored some control time of his own in the fight—just shy of three minutes all told.

It's close, but as we said above, Makhachev has to be given the edge. In terms of wrestling, he simply has few equals in the Octagon.

Edge: Makhachev

Volkanovski's X-Factor: Short-Notice Circumstances

Volkanovski might not have been in fight camp when he got the call to step in and fight Makhachev on less than two weeks' notice, but there is no question he was training. Still, even if he is in great condition, he has very little time to develop a game plan for Makhachev, who he failed to defeat less than nine months ago. Most fans would give Volkanovski a good shot of beating Makhachev in a rematch under normal circumstances, but on such short notice, the featherweight king faces a steep uphill climb.

Makhachev's X-Factor: A Change in Focus

The other side of the coin is that Makhachev is also gearing up for a short-notice fight. Yes, he was preparing for a matchup with Oliveira on the same date, but Oliveira and Volkanovski are nothing alike beyond their status as elite fighters. In fact, the game plan Makhachev and his coaches at American Kickboxing Academy developed for Oliveira is surely crunched up in a trash can somewhere in San Jose. He might be in better condition than Volkanovski, but he has just as little time to prepare for their unexpected rematch.

The short-notice circumstances of this fight make it very difficult to make a confident prediction. It's impossible to know what kind of shape Volkanovski is in right now, or how much difficulty Makhachev will have shifting his focus from Oliveira to the very different challenge he now faces.

If both men had a full eight weeks to prepare, it would be easy to lean Volkanovski's way, as the Australian battered Makhachev to the brink of a finish in their first fight, and in the eyes of some fans, actually did enough to win the fight.

However, under these terms, we've got to pick Makhachev.

Our reasoning is very simple.

Makhachev won the first fight. In a rematch that his rival accepted on such short notice, the Russian should have a few extra advantages to lean on. In a game of inches, those extra advantages could prove invaluable.

And still... Even if it's another squeaker.

Prediction: Makhachev by decision