Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers: Complete Week 14 Preview for Green Bay

Fresh off a thrilling victory in what was billed as “The Game of The Year,” head coach Mike McCarthy rewarded his team with an extra day off.

“I wanted the players to have an extra day off this week,” McCarthy said at his press conference Monday, via Mike Spofford of Packers.com. “I’ve liked that little break before the fourth quarter of our season, and I’m trying to create that here with the Monday night game.”

So when the Green Bay Packers (9-3) host the Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Lambeau Field on Monday Night Football at 8:30 p.m. ET, McCarthy’s squad should be rested, relaxed and ready to lay down another home beatdown.

The Pack is unscathed at home this season (6-0) and has outscored its last five visiting opponents 214-82, an average score of 42.8-16.4. Fast starts have been key, with a first-quarter margin of 79-0 in those games.

As well as Aaron Rodgers and the defense played in the Packers' 26-21 win over the New England Patriots on Sunday, the real MVP of this game was McCarthy.

When Bill Belichick schemed to remove Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb from Rodgers’ repertoire, McCarthy countered with a game plan that featured No. 3 wide receiver Davante Adams and tight end Richard Rodgers, both rookies (second- and third-round picks, respectively).

That’s a lot of faith to put into two first-year players, and it paid off handsomely, with Adams totaling a career-high 121 receiving yards on six catches and Rodgers breaking free for a 32-yard touchdown, the game’s first.

McCarthy also lined up Randall Cobb in the backfield to free up the wide receiver downfield. On a 3rd-and-5 play with 11:22 left in the second quarter, Green Bay lined up with Richard Rodgers split wide left and three wide receivers bunched to the right. Cobb, in the backfield next to Aaron Rodgers in the shotgun, ran a wheel route up the right sideline and easily blew past defensive end/linebacker Rob Ninkovich for a 33-yard gain.  

The game essentially came down to two plays: a third-down stop by the Packers defense with New England at Green Bay’s 20-yard line, and Rodgers hitting Cobb for a seven-yard gain for a first down on the following possession. Three kneeldowns later, the game was over. According to NFL Network's Jeff Darlington, this game set the tone in preparing him for postseason play:

Today's Patriots-Packers game put me in the mood for the playoffs. I'm ready for the postseason. That was fun football.

— Jeff Darlington (@JeffDarlington) December 1, 2014

Hawk to Fly No More?

"It's time to bench A.J. Hawk." That’s the stance taken by Pete Dougherty of Press-Gazette Media, who argues that Hawk “looks small and slow for his position,” and “the way he’s diving at blockers’ and runners’ ankles when he fills holes, he looks like he’s simply trying to survive out there.”

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Hawk played a season-low 27 snaps against New England, replaced by Sam Barrington at inside linebacker in Dom Capers’ nickel defense.

Red Zone Not Red-Hot

Despite rolling up 478 yards in the win over New England—13 short of a season high—Coach McCarthy said the team will “definitely” put a "highlighted emphasis" on the red-zone offense after a disappointing 0-of-4 performance, writes the Journal Sentinel’s Tom Silverstein.

The Packers were 3-of-3 scoring touchdowns in the red area vs. Minnesota, Silverstein notes, and the team has generally been very good in the red zone on the season, so there’s not a ton of reason for concern. But, had Green Bay not pulled it out against New England, many would have pointed to the red zone’s inefficiency as the culprit.

LB Move Helps Run D

“It could be argued,” linebacker Sam Barrington said via Silverstein, that the reason for the defense’s improvement against the run is Clay Matthews shift from primarily playing outside to a mixture of inside and outside.

The Packers gave up 30 runs of 10 yards or more in the first eight games, Silverstein writes, but they have given up just nine since the bye week, which coincides with Clay’s move-around. In my opinion, Clay’s willingness to attack a blocker instead of trying to wiggle around him helps stifle runners and allow teammates to flow to the ball and make the tackle.

Injury status via ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky.

Sam Shields has yet to practice this week, which means he's still dealing with the league's concussion protocol. 

Mike Daniels "looks better" and is "getting better," according to McCarthy (via Demovsky) in his Friday press conference. 

Lane Taylor was added to the injury report Friday with an illness. 

Nick Perry played 11 snaps last week, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), and it looks like the Packers are easing him back into football shape after he missed the win at Minnesota.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Falcons' Pass Defense

I guarantee that every Packers (or Falcons) fan reading this remembers where they were when Rodgers absolutely eviscerated Atlanta’s secondary in Green Bay’s 48-21 win in the divisional-round win en route to Super Bowl XLV.

These are two different teams, obviously, but there’s a chance we’ll see a similar result. Atlanta’s pass defense allows 8.1 yards per attempt (30th) and sacks opposing quarterbacks on just 3.1 percent of dropbacks (31st), while Rodgers is having (another) historically efficient season.

Falcons fans can find a silver lining in the fact that the Falcons have only allowed 15 passing touchdowns through 12 games, the fifth-best mark this season.

Steven Jackson vs. Packers' Run Defense

Remember when the Packers were flirting with Steven Jackson?

Thankfully nothing came of that, because that would have meant no Eddie Lacy.

Jackson, who’s started all 12 games at running back for Atlanta this season, topped 100 yards for just the first time last week in the Falcons’ 29-18 win over Arizona. On the season he’s averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, a small uptick from the 3.5-yard clip he carried in 12 games last season.

Green Bay’s Rush D has been much-improved after the bye, allowing just 90 yards per game in four games since, as opposed to a 153.5 mark before.

Julio Jones

Thankfully we’ve not had a Packers defensive back run his mouth about Julio Jones this week the way Patrick Peterson did last week.

Peterson, who played against Jones in college (Peterson at LSU, Jones at Alabama), boasted about winning the matchup in college and said he wanted Jones one-on-one, per Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Peterson got his wish, unfortunately for him, with Jones going for 10 catches and a career-high 189 yards, including eight matched up on Peterson, according to ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure.

Sam Shields would figure to draw this Monday night matchup given Shields' speed and man-cover skills, but the fifth-year corner has yet to return to practice after suffering a concussion against New England. Another career game for Jones would be about the only way Atlanta wins this game.

Is this the week I finally pick against the Packers?

No. Obviously not.

Per Odds Shark, Green Bay is the most lopsided favorite on the Week 14 slate. Aaron Rodgers has a history of torching the Falcons, and the Packers are crushing opponents at home (aside from a squeaker win over the Patriots, probably the league’s second-best team behind Green Bay).

Atlanta has bounced back well after a 2-6 start, winning three out of four, including road wins at Tampa Bay and Carolina. At 5-7 the Falcons are tied for the NFC South lead with New Orleans and would win the division if the season ended today (it doesn’t) based on the head-to-head record.

But, the Packers are too good, the Falcons are an average to below-average football team, the game’s in Green Bay and we’ve got the best player in the world playing as good as he’s ever played.

Packers win in a laugher.

Prediction: Packers 42, Falcons 13

Odds by Odds Shark: Green Bay (-13)

Follow me on Twitter @PeterSowards.