4 Key Factors That Will Decide the 2015 Aviva Premiership Semi-Finals

The Aviva Premiership has four teams still vying for the 2015 crown. Bath and Leicester Tigers, and Northampton Saints and Saracens will meet this weekend in the semi-finals with a place in the final at Twickenham on May 30 at stake.

Bath against Leicester will be determined primarily by the weather at the Recreation Ground, and secondly by the two fly-halves. Meanwhile, Northampton vs. Saracens will be the tighter game, with home advantage and mental fortitude the key factors at Franklin’s Gardens.

Bath, along with Exeter Chiefs, have played the most attractive and expansive rugby this year and have been at their attacking best on hard, fast surfaces, as the firm footing provided by dry weather gives their fluent backs the conditions they need to be adventurous with ball in hand. For instance, they were free-scoring in last week’s 50-30 win over rivals Gloucester.

With George Ford pulling the strings at fly-half, and Kyle Eastmond, Anthony Watson and Premiership Player of the Year Jonathan Joseph waiting for quick ball, a dry day would mean Bath have one foot in the Premiership final.

Leicester Tigers’ strong forward pack, featuring England’s Tom Youngs, Dan Cole and Geoff Parling, ought to ensure they have at least parity with Bath up front, so Bath will be hoping for clear skies in order to maximise the advantages of their syncopated back division.

Verdict: If it’s dry, there will only be one winner: Bath

Freddie Burns was pushing Owen Farrell hard for the England fly-half berth in 2012-13, but two seasons on, and despite a move to Leicester Tigers, he is now nowhere near the national-team radar. A key reason for that is a former Tiger, George Ford.

Burns and Ford are similar types of fly-half: Players who get their outside backs into the game, kick well tactically and have an eye for a gap. Neither 10 is especially reliable from the tee.

Ford’s development over the last two seasons puts him comfortably ahead of Burns, and Ford’s increasingly impressive game management will be a key factor in Bath reaching the final.

Verdict: Ford and Bath to reach the Premiership final

Home advantage will be a key factor in the second semi-final as the two teams are very evenly matched. Northampton had the better regular Premiership season, coming top of the pile, but Saracens won’t be fazed by the occasion. That said; the famously intense atmosphere at Northampton’s Franklin’s Gardens could prove the most decisive factor of all.

Northampton have only lost once at Franklin’s Gardens in the Premiership this season, so expect home advantage to carry them to Twickenham.

Verdict: Northampton will make the most of playing at home

Northampton and Saracens are both mentally strong sides with clear game plans. Saracens have best exhibited these qualities this season in the European Champions Cup. They won a challenging away fixture against Racing Metro (who defeated Northampton in both pool matches) 11-12 thanks to Marcelo Bosch’s last-minute penalty.

Saracens then fought bravely in the semi-final, before going down 13-9 to a Clermont Auvergne side that had dispatched Northampton 37-5 in the quarter-final.

Northampton moreover, will have a mental edge over Saracens after winning last year’s Premiership final against Saracens 24-20, with a last-minute try in extra time from prop Alex Waller.

To compound matters for Saracens mentally, they lost 25-20 to Northampton at Franklin’s Gardens less than a month ago.

Verdict: Tough to call, but Northampton have a decisive mental edge from their head-to-head meetings.