NFL Picks Week 7: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change

The New Orleans Saints were slight home favorites on Thursday night but ended up falling to the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-24.

Being the favorite has meant little in the 2023 season, as there are no perfect teams and very few legitimately bad ones. We saw the San Francisco 49ers fall as double-digit favorites in Week 6, while the Buffalo Bills narrowly escaped the New York Giants, who easily covered the two-score spread.

This doesn't mean, however, that there aren't a few favorites worth backing each week.

Below, we'll examine our three top favorites to trust for the rest of the Week 7 slate. We'll examine why they should win and why the current lines are worth targeting.

Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

The Cleveland Browns outlasted the 49ers last Sunday, thanks to a few San Francisco mistakes and a historically good defense. Cleveland is allowing just over 200 yards per game, and if it doesn't boast the best defense in the NFL, it's up there.

That's problematic for the Indianapolis Colts and quarterback Gardner Minshew II. Minshew has played well when coming off the bench this season, but he's been less effective when teams have had time to prepare.

The Colts could be without wideout Alec Pierce (shoulder), while the Browns may have quarterback Deshuan Watson for the first time since Week 3.

Watson, who has been dealing with a rotator cuff injury, returned to practice and was throwing 30-yard passes on Thursday, according to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com.

If Watson cannot go, P.J. Walker will start for the second consecutive week.

If Cleveland can avoid turnovers, it should find some offensive consistency against a Colts defense ranked 26th overall and 24th in points allowed. That, combined with their stellar defense, should be enough to get the Browns a win.

There is some risk of an emotional letdown after Cleveland's big Week 6 upset, but expect the Browns to remain focused. This isn't a particularly large line, but it has the potential to grow between now and kickoff.

This is a much larger line, and a surprisingly big one for a divisional game. However, there's a good reason for it. The Buffalo Bills, and more specifically, quarterback Josh Allen, have the New England Patriots' number.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has long found success in taking away the opposition's biggest threat, but he's struggled to contain Allen.

According to Andrew Callahan of the Boston Herald, Allen owns the highest passer rating against Belichick of any quarterback to start at least five games against him. Buffalo has won four straight against New England and won all of them by at least 12 points.

"No quarterback has thwarted Belichick as consistently and ruthlessly as Allen. He is at the heart of Belichick's heartache," Callahan wrote.

The Bills are dealing with multiple defensive injuries, and their offense has looked out of rhythm over the past two weeks. However, the Patriots' offense has been bad all season, and it averages just 12 points per game.

If New England could find a way to slow Allen, it might have a chance in this game, but to date, the Patriots have come up short in their search for answers. Expect the Bills offense to get going in this one, while Mac Jones and the Patriots offense remain stuck in neutral.

The 49ers got out-schemed and out-played by the Browns last Sunday, and you can bet that they're not happy about it.

A miffed San Francisco team is not what the Minnesota Vikings will want to see on Monday night. Yes, the Vikings will have home-field advantage, but they won't have star receiver Justin Jefferson (hamstring, injured reserve).

The Vikings also lack a defense as physical and as competent as Cleveland's—most teams do. Minnesota ranks 15th in yards allowed and 21st in points allowed. Compounding the issue is the Vikings penchant for mistakes. They've turned it over 13 times this season and at least once in every game.

If there was going to be an equalizer in this game, it would be the injury report. San Francisco lost both Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) to injury against Cleveland, while left tackle Trent Williams is battling an ankle injury.

With an extra day of rest, however, all three could suit up this week.

"All three players are considered day to day and have not been ruled out against the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night," Matt Barrows and David Lombardi of The Athletic wrote.

San Francisco is by far the better team here, and the line is likely to swing further toward it if encouraging injury news emerges over the weekend.

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