Miguel Cotto vs. Saul Alvarez: Expert Picks for the Main Event

On Saturday night, Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KO) and Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KO) will write another chapter in the historic rivalry between Puerto Rico and Mexico. And, perhaps just as importantly, boxing will take its first tentative steps into the post-Floyd Mayweather Jr. era.

The two men will compete for the Ring Magazine and lineal middleweight title—but will do so at a catchweight just one pound above the junior middleweight cutoff. Cotto's WBC middleweight title, the crowning jewel of the division, will not be at stake—the Puerto Rican was stripped of the title after a disagreement about sanctioning fees.

Ignore all of that backroom business. What happens in the ring transcends that. Both fighters have promised an explosive night of action. Both have plenty to prove—Cotto that he still belongs among the elite, and Canelo that he has what it takes to assume the responsibility of representing Mexico as that nation's top boxer. Those are heady stakes, much more significant than any bauble could ever be.

Can Canelo live up to the hype three years after Mayweather bodied that train right off the tracks? Or will the 35-year old Cotto add another soul to a collection that already ensures his induction in Canastota? Our crack boxing team of Lyle Fitzsimmons, Kelsey McCarson, Kevin McRae, Briggs Seekins and myself has a few thoughts on the topic. 

Have some of your own? Drop us a line in the comments.

Fitzsimmons: I can't recall a recent pay-per-view fight being a more 50-50 proposition. A legitimate case can be made for either guy. That said, I like Canelo by a narrow decision in a potential Fight of the Year.

I think he'll start fast, manage to keep a Cotto rally from costing him his consciousness and ultimately keep just busy enough to win seven of 12 rounds. Not a one-sided thrashing by any means, just a young and talented guy doing just enough to beat an older talented guy.

McCarson: Cotto will defeat Alvarez by decision. The fight will be a back-and-forth affair, but Cotto’s ability to lure Canelo into traps and hard counterpunches will give him the nod on the judges’ scorecards. It will likely be a very close fight, possibly a split decision.

Another way Cotto might take the win is through his excellent jab. Remember, Cotto landed his jab on Mayweather more than just about anyone ever. Compared to Mayweather, Alvarez will be a sitting duck.

McRae: Canelo Alvarez will win this fight, and he’ll do so by late stoppage.

Canelo is younger, fresher, bigger and likely stronger than Cotto, who has looked incredible during his late-career resurgence but hasn’t yet beaten the type of opponent that removes doubt whether he’s that good or his foes have just been that bad. Canelo ain’t Daniel Geale, and he’ll take over in the middle rounds and end it late.

Seekins: Saul Alvarez is going to win this by late stoppage. Miguel Cotto's late-career resurgence has been exciting to watch, but a large part of it has been built on sand. There's no doubt Freddie Roach has made him the best fighter he can be, but the lineup of opponents he's faced since working with Roach has been ideal matchmaking for him.

Cotto has won his last three fights with aggression and pressure, but that would play right into what the younger, stronger Canelo wants. Cotto will be crafty and make it an exciting, competitive fight for the first six rounds. He might even be winning at the halfway mark. But the younger man will make enough adjustments and keep pushing the pace, and Cotto will fade in the championship rounds and be forced to quit in his corner after Round 10.

Snowden: Despite all the talk of fireworks and bell-to-bell action, Canelo Alvarez is a surprisingly cautious fighter when matched against another top professional. This won't be the slugfest so many are hoping for. Instead, he'll work his counter game smartly and hope he has too much for old-man Cotto.

The only thing Cotto knows how to do is come ever forward. Unfortunately for him, that's exactly what Canelo wants. When he closes the distance, he'll find a younger, stronger, slicker fighter there waiting. Canelo by unanimous decision.

Fitzsimmons: When HBO’s Max Kellerman joins Alvarez in mid-ring and pops the inevitable question about a showdown with the other middleweight sheriff in town, one Gennady Golovkin. Alvarez will answer in the affirmative when it comes to a rendezvous, drawing thunderous applause from the Mandalay Bay crowd and a near-conniption from the Bearded One and his premium cable colleagues.

McCarson: The moment we’ll remember most is being exceedingly thankful for finally seeing a superfight that lives up to pre-fight expectations. Cotto-Canelo will be an action-packed bout, one of the better fights of the year. If you were bored by Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao, you won’t be bored by Cotto-Canelo.

McRae: The moment the opening bell rings. Few rivalries in all of sports get the collective juices of fandom going more than Puerto Rico vs. Mexico in boxing. These are two fiercely proud boxing nations, and you can expect the fans inside the arena to make for an electric atmosphere the minute that bell rings and the two warriors streak toward combat.

Seekins: There's going to be some great moments in this fight, for both men. But I ultimately feel that the moment we'll remember most will be the great and heroic Cotto, face badly swollen and breathing labored, forced to retire in his corner. Meanwhile, the arena will erupt, and across the ring, the young rising superstar will be throwing his tired arms into the air in victory.

Snowden: Cotto is there to be a sacrificial lamb, a gift laid bare at the altar of Canelo. We'll remember the challenger graciously accepting, his eyes alive with the kind of smile only a champion can muster as he accepts The Ring championship belt.

Fitzsimmons: It’ll be a good fight and suggestions for a rematch won’t be unfounded, but it’d be a stretch to lift it to the level of past clashes between the intense rivals. For my money, it’s still Salvador Sanchez-Wilfredo Gomez that’s most emblematic.

McCarson: There’s no way Cotto-Canelo becomes the greatest fight of the rivalry. There have been some tremendous fights in the history of Mexico vs. Puerto Rico. Just making it into the top 10 would be a noteworthy accomplishment, and Cotto-Canelo at least has the potential to do that.

McRae: Not even close. It would be lucky to even elevate itself to the conversation. That’s not a criticism of this fight, which presents an exciting style matchup between two bangers who are happy getting to close quarters and slinging away, but a healthy dose of respect for the storied rivalry between the nations.

Salvador Sanchez’s 1981 win over Wilfredo Gomez will remain the greatest fight in this storied rivalry when Saturday concludes.

Seekins: It has a chance to be. Simply because of the stature both fighters currently enjoy, it's likely to be the most lucrative. And they match up well to create an exciting battle.

Will it be a more exciting fight than Tito Trinidad vs. Fernando Vargas or Jose Luis Ramirez vs. Edwin Rosario? Will it be more historically significant than Wilfredo Gomez's clashes with Carlos Zarate and Salvador Sanchez? Those are some high standards to live up to, but this fight has the potential to do so.

Snowden: If the expectation is a fight for the ages, fans are bound to leave disappointed. When the final bell rings, this won't rank among the best fights in a historic rivalry. It will be the swan song of an aging champion, hopelessly overmatched by the kind of man he used to be. 

Fitzsimmons: The WBC will be knocking on Canelo’s door looking to repossess his newly acquired green belt, but Team Golden Boy will nonetheless determine that the safest path for its top drawing card is another duel with Cotto rather than a scrap with Golovkin. Sign them up for Madison Square Garden on the first Saturday in May 2016.

McCarson: Canelo will face Demetrius Andrade at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Alvarez will return to 154 pounds and look to solidify his stature as the best junior middleweight in the world by facing solid contenders like Andrade.

McRae: The answer should be Gennady Golovkin, but if you believe the HBO people, and why not, then Timothy Bradley seems to have a legitimate shot at this fight if he doesn’t get a Manny Pacquiao repeat. Nothing about that fight is appealing (because of the size difference), but it seems to be the way the wind is blowing and will happen in Las Vegas in April.

Seekins: If I'm right, and he wins, the WBC says he has to fight Gennady Golovkin next. Please let it be so. That fight would attract huge excitement and attention and would deliver with thrills in the ring.

And let's hope Canelo doesn't insist on a pathetic catchweight for that fight. If he truly wants to be an all-time great, he needs to drop that line in a hurry. Thomas Hearns, Sugar Ray Leonard and the former lightweight Roberto Duran all fought Marvin Hagler at the 160-pound limit. Although, historically, you could argue that Canelo's mentor and promoter Oscar De La Hoya started all this catchweight nonsense when he faced Bernard Hopkins.

Snowden: Everyone will be hoping for Gennady Golovkin. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting. Instead, Canelo will likely dip his toes into the middleweight division proper against a mere mortal at 160 pounds. Tureano Johnson, a recent Golden Boy acquisition, fits the bill nicely for a homecoming fight in Mexico next May.

Fitzsimmons: Unless it's a total blowout in favor of the youngster, go ahead and book a flight to New York for the rematch. Even with a narrow loss, Cotto is still a more lucrative, and less dangerous, option for Alvarez than Golovkin. If the Puerto Rican loses big, it might be the end of the line. And if he wins big, don't be surprised if a guy named Floyd enters the conversation.

McCarson: While the entire world will want Cotto to fight Gennady Golovkin, he won’t. Instead, Cotto will wait around to see if Floyd Mayweather wants to come out of retirement for a rematch of their 2012 bout. When Mayweather doesn’t bite, Cotto will retire. 

McRae: Assuming he loses, which I will, then it’s unclear whether or not Cotto fights on at all. He’s made his money (adding a large fortune more) and no longer needs to put himself in harm’s way to support his family. The smart money says he just calls it quits and awaits the Hall of Fame.

Seekins: If I'm right and Cotto gets stopped, or even loses badly, I think he'll retire. He's a legend, he's made his money, and his late-career resurgence was the icing on an already delicious cake. He'll go down in history as the first four-division champion from Puerto Rico. Even if he wins, I don't think he'll face Gennady Golovkin. I could see him rematching with Floyd Mayweather, though, if Mayweather decides to come back so he can go for 50-0.

Snowden: While his performance may demand retirement, his pocketbook will demand otherwise. He'll return to New York for a chance at revenge against Austin Trout early next year.