Pac-12 Tournament 2018: Preview and Predictions for Every Team

Basketball fans with West Coast ties are swimming upstream this season. 

It's been a tough campaign at times, with situations like the Arizona allegation mess and LiAngelo Ball's removal from UCLA. But there have been good times and plenty of good players too.

The numbers, though—they do not tell falsehoods. By all accounts, Arizona is the only lock for the Big Dance.

According to both ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi and CBS bracketologist Jerry Palm, the Pac-12 Conference is only expected to land four teams in the Dance. It's not all that surprising given that it ranked above only the Big Ten among collective power-conference RPI. The American (three), West Coast (two) and Atlantic 10  (two) are the only other conferences below the Pac-12 that Lunardi projects to get more than one bid.

This is all bleak news but doesn't mean there's nothing at stake in this tournament. Seeding for the Big Dance is critical for those slated to go. For other teams, their seeds are not certain. Still others can make a case with a deep (very deep) run. And of course, anyone can make it to mid-March by running the table.

Here are predictions and previews for all 12 teams in the conference.

The teams appear in the order they are seeded in the official tournament draw, which also includes games times. Stats are current as of March 4 and provided by ESPN.com unless otherwise noted. All games slated to air on Fox Sports 1 and/or the Pac-12 Network.

First matchup: No. 5 Stanford (Wednesday, 5:30 p.m. ET)

Prediction: Loses first game

California (8-23, 2-16) is not a good team. That's just the way it is.

It sounds weird to say the Golden Bears ended their season with a seven-game losing streak because that streak began Feb. 7. If you go even farther back, they lost 17 of their final 19 contests.

Their offensive woes are the most glaring weakness, as they're a dismal 289th on the KenPom.com efficiency rankings.

So, yeah. Nothing much to see here. 

First matchup: No. 6 Oregon (Wednesday, 11:30 p.m. ET)

Prediction: Loses first game

Washington State (12-18, 4-14) is better than California, but not by a whole lot. The Cougars are only three spots above the Golden Bears on the aforementioned KenPom offensive rankings at No. 286.

Only two Cougars (Robert Franks and Malachi Flynn) average double figures in scoring. Their 44.7 team shooting percentage is tied with Seattle and Tennessee-Martin for 178th nationally.

You get the idea. They don't have much to play for and shouldn't be a tough test for Oregon.

First matchup: No. 7 Washington (Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET)

Prediction: Loses first game

The tournament stays chalky when the Oregon State Beavers (15-15, 7-11) tangle with Washington.

Washington has an outside shot at making the tournament. Beating Oregon State won't get the Huskies there; they'll need a much deeper run. Losing to Oregon State would seal the metaphorical tomb on their 2017-18 season.

An upset is not inconceivable, as this not a bad matchup for the Beavers. But Oregon State lacks a frontcourt. Outside of Drew Eubanks and Tres Tinkle—who also takes 23 percent of the team's shots on average—the cupboard's pretty empty down there. But Washington is arguably worse in that regard, 299th nationally with 33 rebounds per game (Oregon State is at 224th with 34.6 per outing).

Still, since the Huskies have more to play for, they should down the Beavers on Wednesday.

First matchup: No. 8 Colorado (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)

Prediction: Wins one game, loses to No. 1 Arizona in quarterfinals

The Arizona State Sun Devils (20-10, 8-10) are moving in the wrong direction.

As Bleacher Report bracketologist Kerry Miller points out, their tournament stock is dropping because they went 8-10 through this below-average conference, including losses to Oregon State and to Stanford at home. They dropped four of their final five.

Lunardi has them slipping to a No. 11 seed in the big tournament. They're in an odd place entering the Pac-12 tourney: Because of their bad conference schedule they're a 9 seed, but their nonconference wins over the likes of Xavier and Kansas give them a much higher national profile than teams like Colorado and Washington, which are seeded above them in a conference context. 

The point is, although they're most likely in, they could still use a win. Colorado would go a long way toward shoring that up. 

First matchup: No. 9 Arizona State (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)

Prediction: Loses first game

Colorado (16-14, 8-10) sits 85th in national RPI. The Buffaloes did a good job of beating the beatable teams, but they don't have a signature nonconference win. Their best victories overall were probably back-to-back beatings of Arizona State and Arizona back in early January.

The bracketologists don't currently have the Buffaloes in the Big Dance picture. Barring a deep run through the Pac-12—and given the conference's overall weakness, it would need to be quite deep—they're probably just playing for pride.

The strange tourney dynamic rears its head again. The lower-seeded Sun Devils have more to play for and will show it.

First matchup: No. 10 Oregon State (Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET)

Prediction: Wins one game, loses to No. 2 USC in quarterfinals

The Washington Huskies (20-11, 10-8) can hang their hats on an early-season win over Kansas and good conference wins over Arizona State and Arizona. 

But a 3-5 close to the season seemed to force them off the bubble. In the Pac-12 tournament they'll be shooting to play their way back on. 

They could have been a No. 3 seed in this tournament, but then a late comeback came up short in the regular-season finale at Oregon. So, here they are.

The problem that is they have an unfavorable draw. If they get past OSU, they'll face a USC team with plenty of its own motivation. The Huskies did beat the Trojans in their sole meeting this season, but that came well before their late-season stumble.

If they want to make any meaningful run, they'll need to find a way to get the ball in the hole and share the basketball more effectively. Their 45.7 shooting percentage is eighth in the conference, and their 11.7 assists per game are a borderline shocking 310th nationally.

First matchup: No. 11 Washington State (Wednesday, 11:30 p.m. ET)

Prediction: Wins one game, loses to No. 3 Utah in quarterfinals

Like Colorado before them, the Oregon Ducks (20-11, 10-8) have a bit of an inflated status within the conference because they got fat on the Pac-12's soft underbelly.

Their top wins are Arizona and Arizona State (twice), and that's nothing to sneeze at. Their out-of-conference resume doesn't exist.

Oregon can get past Washington State. The Ducks have a balanced offensive attack led by guard Payton Pritchard and his 14.6 points per contest. But last season's Final Four squad feels a long way away. The team seems solid on both ends of the floor but occasionally struggles to put it all together. Utah is a pretty well-oiled machine and will capitalize on those mistakes.

First matchup: No. 12 California (Wednesday, 5:30 p.m. ET)

Prediction: Wins two games, loses to No. 1 Arizona in semifinals

The Stanford Cardinal (17-14, 11-7) are not in the big tournament conversation, but this Pac-12 run could change that.

They suffer from a 72nd national RPI ranking, which, among Pac-12 teams, puts them over only the conference bottom-feeders. But with four wins in five games to close the regular season, they've got some momentum coming into Wednesday. 

Simply put: their nonconference experience was awful, with losses to teams like Portland State and Eastern Washington. But their second half helped make up for it.

If they're going to pull the upset of UCLA in the quarterfinals, they'll need to cut down on the turnovers and overall sloppy play that has plagued them all season.

Guard Daejon Davis leads the team in assists with five per contests—and in turnovers with four per contests. They're ninth in the conference with a 0.92 assist-to-turnover ratio. They have only 56.8 field-goal attempts to UCLA's 60.9. Part of that comes from the loss of junior guard Marcus Sheffield, who hasn't played all season.

In any event, they're trending in the right direction. Averaging 82 points, as they did in those final five contests, will cover a multitude of sins. The turnovers are a bit better, too, with 12.8 giveaways per game on average during that stretch compared with its last-in-the-conference season average of 15.

The Cardinal take advantage of a reeling Bruins team and enter the national conversation.

First matchup: No. 5 Stanford (projected) (Thursday, 5:30 p.m. ET)

Prediction: Loses first game

Bleacher Report's Miller has a "Stock Down" for UCLA (20-10, 11-7) thanks to its late-season woes. As the Bruins came down a 3-3 final stretch, they didn't look particularly good even when they won. For example, they needed overtime to beat Oregon after squandering an 11-point second-half lead at home.

They righted the ship somewhat by defeating USC in the season finale to complete an impressive sweep of the Trojans. 

They split their season slate with Stanford, however, and on paper the Cardinal are a favorable matchup. The Bruins lead the conference with 38.6 percent shooting from three. Stanford's defensive lapses can exacerbate the situation. 

But it seems UCLA can get caught sleeping, and Stanford has a knack for clutch play. Of the Cardinal's four final wins, three came by four points or less. Those kinds of games are confidence-builders, and they'll take that fight to UCLA on Thursday.

First matchup: No. 6 Oregon (projected) (Thursday, 11:30 p.m. ET)

Prediction: Wins one game, loses to No. 2 USC in semifinals

It's sink or swim for the Utah Utes (19-10, 11-7). 

Not to be a broken record, but with so much flotsam and jetsam in the conference, it's not hard to find easy meals. Utah feasted on a 6-1 home stretch liberally sprinkled with the conference's lower-tier programs.

But the Utes have an ace up their sleeve. Their No. 48 RPI ranking is good for fourth in the conference. They didn't have any major nonconference wins but by and large took care of business as expected.

They should beat an Oregon team playing its second game in two days. But they'll run into a buzzsaw in streaking USC. Utah plays a low-tempo game—278th in the nation according to KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings—but at the same time allows 68.8 points per contest. That's not bad, but it's not the sort of lockdown defense you need to compensate for a lower tempo, particularly against a USC team that can score in bunches.

Add in the fact that USC defeated Utah by 16 points just two weeks ago—in Utah, no less—and you have every ingredient you need.

First matchup: No. 7 Washington (projected) (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET)

Prediction: Wins two games, loses to Arizona in Pac-12 tournament final

Arizona isn't the only Pac-12 school mired in scandal. Trojan fans breathed a big sigh of relief when NCAA officials ruled that leading scorer Chimezie Metu was cleared to continue playing this season.

USC (21-10, 12-6) is handling it well. The regular-season finale home loss to UCLA was demoralizing, but the Trojans had won previously four straight. They're in Lunardi's "Last Four In," even if it's still pretty shaky.

A No. 23 ranking in KenPom's offensive efficiency speaks in part to the Trojans' style, which is predicated on forcing turnovers and converting them to easy buckets. 

USC seems to have Utah's number. The Trojans' bad losses—including that three-game dead spot in early February that saw them lose to UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona in succession—seem to be behind them.

Arizona is a great team. Though the Wildcats are also a lock for a high seed in the Big Dance and have sagged a bit in the final segment of the season. They could be susceptible to upset, and USC's top-shelf scoring machine could spring it.

First matchup: No. 9 Arizona State (projected) (Thursday, 12 p.m. ET) 

Prediction: Wins Pac-12 tournament

Yes, USC could pull an upset. But this is definitely the safer pick. Arizona (24-7, 14-4) is the class of this conference—and it's not that close.

The recent corruption allegations made national news, but everything is OK for now in Tucson, with head coach Sean Miller and top performer Allonzo Trier back on the court.

Trier and freshman forward Deandre Ayton are a two-headed monster, combining for 38.8 points per game. Ayton also leads the Pac-12 with 11.4 rebounds per contest, and the Wildcats are 16th nationally in KenPom's offensive rankings. 

Still, there are cracks in the armor. Point guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright has been inconsistent with both scoring and distributing. For example, in a January 4 win at Utah, he netted 19 points on 4-of-6 shooting, with three assists and one turnover. The next game, a loss at Colorado, he scored two points on an 0-of-6 night from the field, with eight assists and one turnover.

You can't really lay an entire team's weaknesses (or strengths) at the feet of one person, and in the meantime, the Wildcats have more than enough firepower to grab the two-piece—adding a Pac-12 tournament title to accompany their regular-season crown.