Predicting the Best 2023-24 CBB Teams Who'll Crash and Burn to Miss March Madness

With 32 of the NCAA tournament's 68 spots decided by automatic bid, there are only 36 at-large berths available when the field is set, and a handful of tournament-caliber teams always wind up on the outside looking in each year.

Ahead we've taken a crack at predicting the seven best teams that will miss March Madness.

Whether it's a tough remaining schedule, a lack of marquee wins, a troubling recent stretch or a simple numbers game, each of these teams faces a steep uphill battle.

There's still time for resumes to be improved, and a conference tournament win would make it a moot point. But right now, these seven schools, presented in alphabetical order, look to be on their way to the NIT.

Note: NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings in parentheses. Notable wins written in italics indicate a road game, while underlined games indicate a neutral site.

Record: 16-9, 5-7 in Big 12

Quadrant 1 Wins: BYU (10), Texas Tech (26), UCF (68)

Quadrant 2 Wins: TCU (36), UCF (68)

Q1: 3-6, Q2: 2-2, Q3: 3-1, Q4: 8-0

Bad Losses: West Virginia (155)

The Big 12 will almost certainly lead all conferences in NCAA tournament bids this year, with the latest version of Bracket Matrix showing nine of the conference's 14 teams in the projected field.

Cincinnati is currently the best team on the outside looking in.

The Bearcats started the season 12-2 and kicked off conference play with an 11-point road win over a good BYU team, but they have gone just 4-7 in their past 11 games, and two of those victories came against a UCF team that is not projected for the tournament field.

Road games against Houston (Feb. 27) and Oklahoma (March 5) will provide an opportunity to pad their resume, and a group that ranks No. 22 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency is never going to be an easy matchup, but they still have a lot of work to do if they want to make it an even 10 Big 12 teams in the tournament field.

Record: 17-9, 8-7 in Pac-12

Quadrant 1 Wins: Washington (72)

Quadrant 2 Wins: Washington State (31), Oregon (61), Washington (72), Richmond (73), Miami (79), USC (108)

Q1: 1-5, Q2: 6-4, Q3: 3-0, Q4: 7-0

Bad Losses: None

A single Quad 1 victory over a Washington team that is not projected for the NCAA tournament field leaves the Colorado Buffaloes with an extremely light resume.

They have also already played both games against Pac-12 leaders Arizona and Washington State, leaving next Saturday's home matchup against fellow bubble team Utah as their only remaining game against a potential tournament team.

With a 2-4 record in their past six games, they don't exactly have momentum on their side either, leaving a Buffaloes team that climbed as high as No. 18 in the AP poll back on Nov. 20 facing an uphill battle to find a spot in the tournament field.

It will be a shame if Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate KJ Simpson (19.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.7 APG) and projected lottery pick Cody Williams (14.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 47.1 3PT%) don't get a chance to perform for a national audience in March.

Record: 23-3, 11-3 in Sun Belt

Quadrant 1 Wins: Michigan State (20)

Quadrant 2 Wins: Louisiana (117)

Q1: 1-0, Q2: 1-1, Q3: 4-2, Q4: 17-0

Bad Losses: Appalachian State (76), Southern Miss (217)

The James Madison Dukes kicked off the 2023-24 season with a bang, beating then-No. 4 Michigan State in overtime in their season opener en route to a 14-0 start that saw them spend eight weeks in the AP poll, peaking as the No. 18 team in the nation.

However, after an undefeated run through non-conference play, they suffered a pair of early losses in Sun Belt action, including an ugly 10-point loss on the road against a Southern Miss team ranked outside the Top 200 in NET.

They have rebounded to go 9-1 in their past 10 games, but a pair of losses against Appalachian State (22-5, 12-2 in Sun Belt, NET: 76) has raised questions of whether they can even be considered the best team in the Sun Belt Conference.

It's been over a decade since the last time the Sun Belt received an at-large bid, with Middle Tennessee earning a spot in the 2013 NCAA tournament field after losing in the conference tournament, so history is not on the Dukes' side if they can't run the table.

Record: 17-8, 7-7 Big Ten

Quadrant 1 Wins: Purdue (2), Michigan State (20), Wisconsin (21)

Quadrant 2 Wins: Northwestern (56), Ohio State (64), Kansas State (81)

Q1: 3-6, Q2: 3-2, Q3: 5-0, Q4: 7-0

Bad Losses: None

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have come a long way since going 7-25 overall and 2-18 in conference play during the 2019-20 season in their first year under head coach Fred Hoiberg, though they are still eyeing their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2014.

They beat Purdue when they were ranked No. 1 in the nation on Jan. 9, and also beat then-No. 6 Wisconsin on Feb. 1, but both of those impressive home victories were immediately followed by back-to-back losses on the road.

All told, they have gone 2-7 in road and neutral site games this season, and that coupled with a non-conference strength of schedule that ranks among the worst of any major conference team give them a head-scratching resume to say the least.

They close out the season against Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio State, Rutgers and Michigan—five teams that are all outside the current projected NCAA tournament field—leaving them with little chance to pad their resume and ample opportunity to fall further down the bubble pecking order.

Record: 19-6, 6-6 in SEC

Quadrant 1 Wins: Florida (28), Texas A&M (45), UCF (68)

Quadrant 2 Wins: Mississippi State (38), NC State (75)

Q1: 3-5, Q2: 2-1, Q3: 7-0, Q4: 7-0

Bad Losses: None

After an ugly 3-15 showing in conference play and a 21-loss season overall a year ago, Chris Beard has quickly turned things around in his first season at the helm for the Ole Miss Rebels.

Auburn transfer Allen Flanigan (15.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Saint Peter's transfer Jaylen Murray (14.0 PPG, 4.0 APG) have provided a major boost alongside leading scorer Matthew Murrell (17.1 PPG, 40.9 3PT%), and the Rebels rank 12th in the nation as a team with a 38.5 percent clip from beyond the arc.

However, the defense checks in No. 126 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and they have allowed more than 80 points in six different games this season, going 2-4 in those contests.

Consecutive home games against South Carolina (Feb. 24) and Alabama (Feb. 28) could make-or-break their season, with at least one victory needed to add to their resume, but even then there will still be work to do.

Record: 17-9, 10-5 in Big East

Quadrant 1 Wins: UConn (4), Marquette (14), Saint Joseph's (51), Butler (57), Providence (59)

Quadrant 2 Wins: St. John's (51), Xavier (54)

Q1: 5-5, Q2: 2-2, Q3: 2-2, Q4: 8-0

Bad Losses: Rutgers (82), USC (108)

An entire article could be written on the current bubble situation in the Big East.

While UConn, Marquette and Creighton are all locks for the NCAA tournament, six other teams—Butler, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova and Xavier—reside squarely on the bubble.

Any one of those teams could have been a reasonable choice to include in this article, and Seton Hall might be the most controversial of the bunch given their wins over UConn and Marquette as part of a five-win Quad 1 resume.

However, they also have a pair of Quad 3 losses, and the coming weeks won't be easy with road games against Creighton and UConn, as well as bubble matchups with Butler and Villanova before closing things out with a cupcake against DePaul.

If they go 2-3 in their final five games and make an early exit in the Big East tournament, those two marquee wins won't be enough to punch their ticket to March Madness.

Record: 16-8, 8-5 in ACC

Quadrant 1 Wins: Florida (28)

Quadrant 2 Wins: Virginia (41), Virginia Tech (62), NC State (75), Boston College (87)

Q1: 1-6, Q2: 4-3, Q3: 5-0, Q4: 6-0

Bad Losses: None

It's a down year for the ACC with only North Carolina, Duke and Clemson looking like locks for the tournament, while Virginia is also safely in the field for the time being thanks to a 9-1 record in their last 10 games.

Wake Forest is their best candidate for a fifth team.

The Demon Deacons missed a golden opportunity to pad their resume last week with road losses to Duke (77-69) and Virginia (49-47), and they still have just a single Quad 1 victory, which came at home against Florida back on Nov. 29.

They might need to win home games against Pitt and Duke this week to have a real shot at an at-large case, and after that they'll need to take care of business against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech before closing out the regular-season slate at home against Clemson.