Shifting MLB's 2024 Playoff Races with These 6 Trades

For each of Major League Baseball's six divisions, we've put together one hypothetical trade proposal that would make a non-favorite to win the division (based on DraftKings odds) much more of a candidate to do just that.

And, notably, these are six wholly separate trade ideas that could all happen simultaneously. In other words, it's not six trade packages for Dylan Cease, though we most certainly do have him going somewhere in here.

In addition to Cease, who has been mentioned often as a possible trade target this offseason, most of these trades involve players who have been recently mentioned in trade rumors/speculations. (The AL Central trade proposal is the exception to that rule, but it also might be the most intriguing of them all.)

Division odds current as of Monday morning.

Current AL East Odds: Yankees +140, Orioles +280, Blue Jays +350, Rays +650, Red Sox +1100

Division Race-Shifting Trade: Baltimore Orioles trade 1B/3B Coby Mayo to Milwaukee Brewers for RHP Corbin Burnes and LHP Robert Gasser

Baltimore fans keep telling me that they don't want to trade away Coby Mayo, but I'm going to keep coming up with trade ideas involving him, because it just makes sense for the O's to part with the super-talented prospect who hit .290 with 29 home runs last year in the minors.

Baltimore has first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and third baseman Ramon Urias under team control through 2026. It also has each of Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz and Jackson Holliday locked up through at least 2028.

If they hang on to Mayo, they'll find a way to use him in some capacity once it's abundantly clear he no longer belongs in Triple-A. But they don't need him any time soon, which makes him the ideal trade chip.

For instance, send Mayo to Milwaukee where the entire 1B/3B/DH situation is questionable at best and, heck, he maybe even cracks the Opening Day roster.

They're most likely not moving Mayo for anything less than a top-of-the-rotation starter, though. The O's would probably prefer Dylan Cease because he has two years remaining before free agency, but they certainly aren't going to turn up their nose at the idea of getting one year of Corbin Burnes' services.

Even though Burnes is an elite pitcher and a former Cy Young winner, because he only has one year left, Milwaukee would likely need to add in a prospect in order to give Baltimore the necessary incentive to part with what our Joel Reuter rates as the 27th-best prospect in all of baseball. Robert Gasser—part of Milwaukee's haul in the Aug. 1, 2022 Josh Hader trade—should do the trick, as the southpaw could even make some big league starts this season.

Getting Burnes probably wouldn't push the O's ahead of the Yankees as the betting favorites to win the AL East. It sure would close the gap, though, as adding an ace would cement Baltimore as one of the top candidates to win the AL pennant.

Current AL Central Odds: Twins -115, Guardians +330, Tigers +340, Royals +900, White Sox +4000

Division Race-Shifting Trade: Detroit Tigers trade LHP Brant Hurter to Philadelphia Phillies for LF/DH Kyle Schwarber

Even after signing Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty and trading for Mark Canha with the Javier Báez contract weighing them down, the Tigers should be able to find room in the budget to take on at least one more sizable salary, provided it's for someone who can give a boost to what was the third-worst-slugging offense in the majors in 2023.

Could they just sign that guy instead of trading for him? Sure. Jorge Soler is still available. They could bring J.D. Martinez back home. Maybe bet on Justin Turner having one more good year left in the tank.

Or they could trade for Kyle Schwarber and his 93 home runs over the past two seasons—second only to Aaron Judge.

For the Phillies to be willing to give up Schwarber, it probably needs to be a "sign-and-trade" situation—as in they sign one of the big-name free agents still out there (Josh Hader, Blake, Snell, etc.) before trading away Schwarber's $20 million salary in each of 2024 and 2025 to offset the cost of that big signing.

The Phillies aren't exactly eager to get rid of Schwarber, but effectively trading him for Hader or Snell would be an upgrade. They could still roll out an outfield of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos, or put Cristian Pache in right and use Castellanos as the primary DH.

Assuming then that Detroit is absorbing what's left on Schwarber's contract, it isn't also going to part with any of its top four prospects (Colt Keith, Max Clark, Jackson Jobe and Josh Jung). But it could flip the Phillies a respectable pitching prospect, and Brant Hurter had a solid 2023 at Double-A Erie, making 26 starts with a 3.28 ERA.

Maybe it takes a little more than that. Maybe less. But if they could run out an L-R-L-R-L-R top six of Schwarber, Canha, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and Jake Rogers, that's a formidable lineup in a not very formidable AL Central.

Current AL West Odds: Astros +130, Rangers +160, Mariners +280, Angels +3500, Athletics +15000

Division Race-Shifting Trade: Seattle Mariners trade C Harry Ford and UTIL Dylan Moore to San Diego Padres for IF Ha-Seong Kim

We've already seen the Mariners make trades this offseason with the Arizona Diamondbacks (Eugenio Suárez salary dump) and the San Francisco Giants (Robbie Ray for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani).

And it could be a trade with the San Diego Padres that elevates them to co-favorites in the AL West with the Astros and Rangers.

The Athletic's Dennis Lin reported last week that the Padres are open to the idea of—internally discussing for weeks the possibility of—trading away valuable utility infielder Ha-Seong Kim if they don't think they can extend him to a long-term deal. The 28-year-old is owed $7 million this season, plus a $7 million mutual option for 2025 that 100 percent will be declined by him if he's even half as good as he has been over the past two seasons.

Well, with Josh Rojas and Luis Urías presently looking like the plan at second base and third base, Seattle could really benefit from the addition of a Gold Glove infielder who had 17 home runs and 38 stolen bases last season en route to a few votes for NL MVP.

Even though it would only be for one year, Kim is so valuable that Seattle would probably need to give up one of its top two prospects (2022 first-round pick Cole Young or 2021 first-round pick Harry Ford) in order to grease the wheels here. It might even need to be one of those prospects plus someone who might be able to provide some value to the Padres in 2024, which is why we have Dylan Moore in the deal as well.

It's worth it for Seattle, though.

Putting Kim at second with a third-base platoon of Urías (right-handed hitter with much better career numbers against LHP) and Rojas (left-handed hitter who definitely hit better against RHP in 2023) would be a game-changer for this team's 2024 outlook, significantly upgrading two questionable spots in the lineup.

Granted, it doesn't need to be Kim. They could go after Minnesota's Jorge Polanco or pursue one of Cincinnati's many infielders. But with Kim rumors swirling lately, that's the obvious target right now.

Current AL Central Odds: Braves -220, Phillies +320, Mets +750, Marlins +1600, Nationals +7000

Division Race-Shifting Trade: Philadelphia Phillies trade IF Bryan Rincon, C Eduardo Tait and RHP Alex McFarlane to Washington Nationals for RHP Josiah Gray

It would take something extreme for Philadelphia to replace Atlanta as the favorite to win the NL East.

But the Phillies could at least close the gap by adding another quality starting pitcher to their arsenal.

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are their clear co-aces, followed by Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez. That fifth spot is up in the air, though, with Cristopher Sánchez looking like the best in-house option. And with the payroll already as high as it is, signing a better option might not be in the cards.

What if they could trade for a 2023 All-Star who is still a year away from being eligible for arbitration?

The Phillies typically wait until Washington Nationals hit free agency to acquire them, but Josiah Gray would be quite the addition to a roster already featuring Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber.

Gray made 11 quality starts this past season in what was by far the best year of his young career. He needs to get the walks under control, but he has a lot of potential and could be the No. 3 starter for the Phillies...if Washington is willing to make this type of long-term trade within the division.

Gray has four years remaining until free agency, for which the Nationals would demand a sizable haul of prospects. At that, preferably young prospects who A) have a lot of potential but B) likely won't be ready for the big leagues for another two years. After all, if they're willing to part with Gray, they would basically be acknowledging that they're still at least two or three more years away from legitimately contending again.

And as Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer reported last week, Bryan Rincon (19) and Eduardo Tait (17) have generated quite a bit of interest in trade discussions.

Current NL Central Odds: Cubs +170, Cardinals +200, Reds +400, Brewers +500, Pirates +2000

Division Race-Shifting Trade: Cincinnati Reds trade IF Noelvi Marté, IF Carlos Jorge and RHP Cole Schoenwetter to Chicago White Sox for RHP Dylan Cease

The Cincinnati Reds got Noelvi Marté (and quite a bit more) from Seattle in the Luis Castillo trade two summers ago.

Wouldn't it be something if he was the headliner of the trade package the Reds put together to reintroduce an ace to their pitching staff?

Understandably, the White Sox want a lot for Dylan Cease, who has two years remaining before free agency. The latest report from ESPN's Jesse Rogers indicated Chicago would want, "Multiple high-end prospects (one won't be enough) and some 'fill-ins.'"

Which Cincinnati could do.

Per Reuter's updated farm system rankings, Marté is the best the Reds have to offer, with Carlos Jorge a solid "Tier 2" prospect. Cole Schoenwetter—Cincinnati's fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft—fits the "fill-in" description with some talent that might pay off a few years down the line.

To get Cease for two years, it's plausible Cincinnati would part with both Marté and its No. 2 prospect, 2023 No. 7 overall pick pitcher Rhett Lowder. But that's probably more than the Reds would be willing to give up.

Either way, at least one talented infielder is definitely expendable for Cincinnati.

Even with Marté theoretically out of the picture in this swap and Spencer Steer projected as a primary outfielder after spending much of last season manning the infield, it's still a crowded rotation of Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan India, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. And with all five of those guys (six if you count Steer) under team control through at least 2026, they shouldn't miss Marté any time soon.

And Cease would be quite the final piece of the offseason facelift for this Reds pitching staff.

Cincinnati already signed Emilio Pagán, Nick Martínez, Frankie Montas and Brent Suter to spruce up a group that struggled woefully in 2023. But if they could roll out a rotation of Cease, Montas, Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott and whoever they believe in the most out of Martínez, Graham Ashcraft, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson and Connor Phillips in the No. 5 spot, they just might be the favorites to win the NL Central. (At least until the Cubs re-sign Cody Bellinger.)

Current AL Central Odds: Dodgers -400, Diamondbacks +700, Padres +1000, Giants +1100, Rockies +12000

Division Race-Shifting Trade: San Francisco Giants trade OF Rayner Arias to Milwaukee Brewers for SS Willy Adames

There's no point in trying to put together a trade that would get any of Arizona, San Diego or San Francisco on equal footing with Los Angeles. That isn't to say it's impossible to imagine anyone other than the Dodgers winning the division, but it is impossible to imagine another team entering the season as the favorite to win the division.

We can get the Giants up from fourth-best odds to second-best with a single trade, though, which would suggest an impact in the wild-card race.

San Francisco had three pretty clear needs heading into the offseason: Add an outfielder (signed Jung Hoo Lee), add at least one starting pitcher (traded for Robbie Ray, though he won't be available until probably July; signed Jordan Hicks with the intention of making him a starter) and add a middle infielder in case long-touted prospect Marco Luciano isn't ready for the everyday shortstop job (nothing yet).

But if we already have Milwaukee sending Corbin Burnes to Baltimore, we might as well have the Brewers shipping out Willy Adames, too, since it wouldn't make much sense for them to trade away just one of their two stars hitting free agency next winter.

Adames has hit 80 home runs over the past three seasons, which is a heck of a lot more than anyone currently on San Francisco's roster can claim. He doesn't necessarily solve the "lack of star power" issue that plagued the Giants in 2023, but getting that type of production out of a shortstop spot that sputtered to a .338 slugging percentage last season would be big.

They might be reluctant to trade away a 17-year-old outfielder with a bunch of long-term potential for just one year of a slugging shortstop, but Rayner Arias is the best candidate for a one-for-one swap. If the Brewers are open to doing a couple of lower-tier pitching prospects instead, San Francisco would go that route in a heartbeat.