Predicting Players Who Will Get Franchise Tag in the 2024 NFL Offseason

The application of the franchise tag is the last major puzzle piece to fall into place before NFL free agency gets going on March 11.

That's when the legal tampering period begins, and it's just a few days before the 2024 league year officially opens on March 13.

For now, we are just a day away from the opening of the franchise/transition tag window on February 20.

As a refresher, the franchise tag is a tool that teams have at their disposal to guarantee they don't lose their top talents to free agency. It is a one-year tender that is either determined by the average of previous years' tags and the new salary cap number or 120 percent of their salary the previous season (whichever is highest).

It's a convenient tool that can either keep a player around for year, buy extra time to negotiate a long-term deal or provide the opportunity to trade that player away.

The downside is that it can potentially damage the relationship with the player, and it isn't a cheap alternative. Teams are paying a top-of-the-market cap figure, but players are not getting the added security of a long-term deal.

Here, we'll take a look at tag candidates around the league. First, we'll take a look at some who are likely headed toward a long-term extension and some who appear destined to move before getting to those most likely to get the tag based on production, age, team cap situation and other situational factors.

DT Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs

Tagging Chris Jones is not a realistic option for the Chiefs. The benefit of a long-term deal is the cap flexibility that it provides, and Jones has proven time and time again how valuable he is to the Chiefs defense. His ability to generate pressure on the inside was instrumental to them winning it all this season, so letting him walk would create a nearly irreplaceable hole.

Based on the rules and his salary last season, Jones' tag would cost the Chiefs $32.2 million. That's not feasible for a team that has $23.8 million in cap space right now. The Chiefs can't lose him and the franchise tag is too expensive, so a new contract is the only logical answer.

DT Justin Madubuike, Baltimore Ravens

The franchise tag would be considerably cheaper for Madubuike despite playing the same position as Jones. The tag for defensive tackles is $20.9 million, and Madubuike didn't have the contract that has elevated Jones' tag for 2024. Still, Madubuike produced in a big way for the Ravens, stacking up 13 sacks in a contract year.

The Ravens might have played hardball with Lamar Jackson and used the franchise tag to get a long-term deal done, but before that, they hadn't used since 2016. Defensively, their early round picks aren't in line for big extensions. David Ojabo and Odafe Oweh are not on a trajectory to break the bank, so they might as well give future money to Madubuike.

QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have found a symbiotic relationship that seems to work. The quarterback helped lead the Bucs back to the playoffs, and there's reportedly mutual interest in getting a contract done before free agency starts. Mayfield had a good season and is definitely worth more than the $4 million contract he played on last season, but the $36.3 million franchise tag for quarterbacks is a bit rich.

EDGE Josh Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars

This one is pretty simple. The Jags essentially challenged Allen to earn a contract extension when they forced him to play on his fifth-year option without an extension last season. He responded with his best season yet, getting 17.5 sacks, 33 quarterback hits and 17 tackles for loss.

The Jags have $17.2 million in cap space, so the tag would take a heavy toll on their cap this season. Young edge-rushers with his production are too valuable to let walk. They should get a deal done.

CB Jaylon Johnson, Chicago Bears

There was a time when it seemed like Jaylon Johnson was destined to leave the Chicago Bears. He was permitted to seek a trade just before the deadline this season. However, Johnson has told reporters that his "heart is in Chicago" even if his mind is on the money.

The Bears have plenty of money to spend ($70.4 million in cap space) and have too much work to do to build the roster to let good players walk—especially good players who want to be there.

RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

All signs point to the end of an era in Tennessee. With Mike Vrabel gone and Derrick Henry set to become a free agent at 30 years old, it's time for the organization to let go. They could hold on to Henry with the tag, but it would cost $19 million based on his 2023 salary, and that doesn't make sense even if they have $73.9 million in cap space.

RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Jacobs was initially tagged last offseason, but the Raiders gave him a one-year contract that paid him a little more than the tag would have. It was a nice gesture of goodwill to get him on the field, but he responded with a season in which he averaged 3.5 yards per carry and missed four games with a quad injury.

LB Patrick Queen, Baltimore Ravens

Patrick Queen has put together two really good seasons since the Ravens brought on Roquan Smith. But the day they made that move probably marked the end of Queen's long-term future in Baltimore. It's hard to build a great defense when paying two off-ball linebackers as much as it will cost to retain Queen with Smith already on the books.

The Ravens' decision to draft Trenton Simpson in the third round last year gives them a logical heir to his role.

RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Saquon Barkley played on the franchise tag, but he doesn't seem like he was happy about it. In an appearance on 98.7 ESPN Radio, ESPN's Jordan Raanan said the Giants aren't expected to use the franchise tag.

It would be tough for the Giants to let Barkley go, but they also didn't do themselves any favors by forcing him to play on the tag last season. Given the opportunity to shop his talents around, he might find a better situation to contend now.

If Brian Burns is allowed to hit the free-agent market, he would have a good argument to be the most valuable target outside of Kirk Cousins if he's healthy. Burns is just 25 years old, plays a highly valued position and has 46 sacks in five seasons with the Carolina Panthers.

The fact that he doesn't have a long-term extension less than a month away from the dawn of free agency makes him a prime franchise-tag candidate.

It's not a surprise that Jeremy Fowler of ESPN was reporting that the Panthers were expected to use the franchise tag on their pass-rusher all the way back in November.

Just because the Panthers will utilize the one-year tender on Burns doesn't mean he'll be in the blue and black next season. There's still the possibility of a tag-and-trade scenario that would see the Panthers use the tag as a way to guarantee compensation for losing a critical player.

That's the scenario Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated addressed recently. He noted that the Panthers and Burns haven't been close to agreeing to a new contract in previous negotiations, but he's worth too much to simply let go.

Whether it's the set up for a tag-and-trade, a way to buy time for negotiations or a one-year fix to the problem, it would appear Burns is headed toward the tag.

The other player Breer mentioned as a tag-and-trade candidate is Tee Higgins. The 25-year-old receiver is another player who would have several suitors backing up the Brinks truck to land him if he hits the open market.

Unfortunately for the rest of the league, the Bengals have a ton of short-term cap space ($61.4 million) to comfortably fit the receiver franchise tag, which is expected to be valued at $20.7 million.

The speculation around trading Higgins has been persistent going back to last season when Kelsey Conway of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported that Higgins was not a part of the team's long-term plans.

However, we're still talking about a Bengals team that is a Super Bowl contender if Joe Burrow is healthy. It would make sense that the Bengals want to hold on to the wide receiver duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as long as possible without having to pay both big-dollar deals.

The best way to do that is to keep Higgins around for one more season on the tag. Chase is only scheduled to cost $9.8 million next season, so the Bengals could have both on the roster for around $30.5 million.

Regardless of whether the Bengals intend to trade Higgins, it just makes sense for them to utilize the tag as a way to hang on to Higgins when free agency starts in March.

The Chiefs have two major free agents hitting the market in Chris Jones and L'Jarius Sneed. That means they'll face the challenges of finding a way for both to stick around and maintaining long-term cap flexibility while also pursuing a third consecutive Super Bowl.

The answer might lie in giving L'Jarius Sneed the franchise tag.

Sneed is coming off a phenomenal season. His value to the Chiefs is clear in the way he can play press-man coverage and lock down some of the best receivers in the league.

According to Player Profiler, he had the third-highest man coverage rate and shadow rate in the league. He was often tasked with following around the team's best receiver and sticking with him. That makes the 4.9 yards he allowed per target all the more impressive.

Factoring in degree of difficulty, he's the best free-agent cornerback in this year's class.

At the same time, the Chiefs have to be careful with how many players have top-of-the-market deals on their roster. Even without a new contract for Jones, the Chiefs' top five cap hits account for $140 million.

It's easy enough to move some numbers around and clear up the $18.8 million it would cost to tag Snead for one more season. But ensuring that a long-term deal works with those of Patrick Mahomes and a new deal for Jones is a different task.

As good as Sneed is, the Chiefs have developed plenty of cornerbacks in Steve Spagnuolo's system over the years. They allowed Charvarius Ward to walk and ended up having Sneed take his place.

The same can't be said for Jones. It should be the defensive tackle that gets the long-term deal, while Sneed has to wait another year under the tag.

The Miami Dolphins are backed into a bit of a corner when it comes to their situation with Christian Wilkins. They had him play on his fifth-year option last season, and he responded with a career-high nine sacks and 23 quarterback hits.

He's always been a stout run-defender. He added high-end pass rush production to his portfolio.

That's only going to make him more expensive as he looks for a new long-term contract. Omar Kelly of Sports Illustrated reported that Wilkins "felt lowballed" by the team's offer in the summer. At the same time, the same source told Kelly that "the problem will get worse if they try to make him play on the franchise tag".

That might be true, but the decision to tag him doesn't mean they will give up on an extension. But the Dolphins have a lot to figure out with their cap situation. They are $51.2 million over the cap right now.

The transition tag could come into play for Wilkins. It's a bit cheaper than the traditional franchise tag. It would only cost $15.8 million against the $19.8 million for the regular tag. The difference is that other teams can agree to a long-term contract with Wilkins, giving the Dolphins the chance to match or receive two first-round picks.

It's a little bit more feasible for the Dolphins to clear the space necessary to sign Wilkins to the transition tag and use it to either have someone else negotiate a long-term deal they can match or get two first-round picks for him.

The Seattle Seahawks took a swing at the trade deadline last season, adding Leonard Williams for a 2024 second-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick.

It's a relatively steep price to pay for an interior defensive lineman if the plan was to only get 10 games out of him. Williams had four sacks and improved the pass-rush, but he wasn't the force multiplier they were hoping as they still missed out on the playoffs.

However, Williams could still be a part of the puzzle under new head coach Mike MacDonald. Jeff Howe of The Athletic reported that there "is hope" the sides can reach an agreement on a contract extension.

The franchise tag could still be in play, especially as a placeholder for a new agreement. With the changes in Seattle this offseason and the fact that Williams has only played a little more than half a season, it would make sense that they might need some extra time to evaluate and negotiate the contract.

Williams is no stranger to the tag. The Giants applied it to him twice before ultimately signing him to an extension.

If the Seahawks don't use it, they would be applying extra pressure to hammer out a deal before March 11 when other teams could start negotiating. The added protection for a player they've already invested draft capital to acquire would make sense.