Week 6 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 5 Results

While Week 5 brought a few more surprises, it also brought a little clarity to the NFL landscape. The Minnesota Vikings really are good. The Cleveland Browns really are bad. The Buffalo Bills? Well, they're not good enough to overcome some horrendous clock management.

We finally, finally seem to know who the NFL's contenders truly are, along with which teams may be vying for the top pick in the 2025 draft. Of course, a few more surprises in Week 6 could easily throw everything back into question.

Based on what we know, however, we've identified some early lines for the week that have real exploitation potential.

*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook

The Chicago Bears finally look like a team that can make some noise in the NFC playoff race. They have a top-10 defense, have found a running game and are starting to see special glimpses from rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.

Williams fully established his connection with star receiver D.J. Moore (5 receptions, 105 yards, 2 TDs) in Week 5, which is tremendous news for Chicago's evolving offense.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, meanwhile, have stumbled through the first five weeks. They managed to secure a win over the Indianapolis Colts—their first victory of the season—but it was a struggle.

Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence was mostly good against a bad Colts defense on Sunday, but he's unlikely to have an easy time against Chicago.

The one thing working in Jacksonville's favor here is that the game will be played in London—which is pseudo-home territory for the Jags. Still, the Bears are the better team, and this line is likely to grow in the coming days—it already moved a half-point over the course of Monday.

The Houston Texans are only touchdown favorites over the New England Patriots this week, which is likely a reflection of Nico Collin's hamstring injury. Houston's star receiver left Sunday's game and is considered "day to day," according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Head coach DeMeco Ryans, however, labeled Collins as "week to week," which suggests he won't play against the Patriots. Even if he doesn't, the Texans should have the offensive resources needed to win convincingly.

Running back Joe Mixon (ankle) will have a chance to return this week, while receivers Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs serve as quality targets for quarterback C.J. Stroud.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have one of the most toothless offenses in the NFL. They mustered just 10 points against the Miami Dolphins in Week 5 and lost their fourth straight game because of it.

While New England's defense has talent, it isn't good enough to corral the Texans for a full four quarters. This one could be close early, but Houston should have little trouble pulling away in the second half.

The Baltimore Ravens survived against the rival Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5, winning their third straight and establishing Baltimore as a playoff threat.

However, the Ravens were very fortunate to get the win. Their defense struggled to contain Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the Bengals, and it took a valiant comeback effort just to reach the extra period.

Baltimore's defense, specifically its secondary, has been an issue throughout the season. The Ravens rank 27th in net yards per pass attempt allowed and have surrendered nine passing touchdowns through five games.

While Baltimore has been terrific against the run, rookie Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is proving that he can beat teams through the air. He's completing a ridiculous 77.1 percent of his passes and has led Washington to an average of 31 points per game.

Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens can hammer a lackluster Commanders run defense, but the stage is still set for another back-and-forth offensive track meet. This is simply too large of a line for a quality team like the Commanders.