Week 10 NFL Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive

We're past both the midpoint of the 2024 NFL season and the trade deadline, which means a clear line has been drawn between the league's contenders and its basement-dwellers.

As teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders vie for the top seeds in their respective conferences, nine two-win teams may be jockeying for draft positioning.

The challenge for survivor pool participants lies in the fact that most of the "good" teams have probably already been used for this year. Over the second half of the season, it will be increasingly important to consider individual matchups, team-specific situations, injuries and other factors.

With this in mind, let's dive into some survivor tips and top picks for Week 10, using the early odds as a guideline.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

It's always best to start by identifying matchups to avoid. Week 10 will start with one, as the Ravens will host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night. We're never a fan of short-week divisional games, and this one is particularly difficult.

Baltimore (-6) is a fairly heavy favorite, but in no way can the Ravens be trusted. During the Joe Burrow era, the Bengals have typically been tough to beat after October, and they tend to fare well against their AFC North rivals.

The Ravens, while Super Bowl contenders, have been vulnerable defensively. Bad defense forced Baltimore to win in overtime in the first meeting against Cincinnati. Two weeks ago, the Ravens inexplicably lost to the lowly Cleveland Browns.

On a short week in primetime, anything could happen.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) and Commanders game is another dicey one. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is a star, and he's a big reason why Washington is in the hunt for the top seed in the NFC. However, the Steelers have an elite defense, have found an offensive spark in Russell Wilson and present a big challenge for any first-year signal-caller.

Under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 25-6 against rookie quarterbacks. Either team could win this one. That's not the sort of game anyone should rush to circle in survivor.

We'd also be wary of the San Francisco 49ers (-6) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup. On paper, the 49ers appear poised to dominate. They're coming out of the bye and may finally have star running back Christian McCaffrey back in the lineup—he returned to practice this week.

"It was great seeing him," 49ers tackle Trent Williams said, per ESPN's Nick Wagoner.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are incredibly thin at wide receiver because of injuries. However, they showed their resiliency on Monday night by taking the Chiefs to overtime. Betting against the Bucs at home in a desperation game might not be the best idea.

We're not huge fans of divisional matchups, because teams that know the opposition well often overperform. Cleveland's upset of Baltimore in Week 8 serves as an example. However, the Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) have a great opportunity to bury the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas on Sunday.

The big concern for Philadelphia is the health of wide receiver A.J. Brown. He suffered a knee injury in Week 9 and is considered "day to day," according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Philly's top receiver may or may not be available against the Cowboys.

Dallas, however, won't have quarterback Dak Prescott, who is set to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. Cowboys star receiver CeeDee Lamb suffered an AC joint sprain in Week 9, and while there's a chance he may try to play, the 3-5 Cowboys have no real reason to rush him back.

On a positive note for Dallas, pass-rusher Micah Parsons (ankle) is expected to return this week. That'll help, but it won't completely fix Dallas' 30th-ranked run defense.

Philadelphia should be able to grind out a road victory by using Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and the running game to wear down Dallas. Upsets can always happen in divisional games, but now's a good time to use Philly before it enters a tough three-game stretch against Washington, the Los Angeles Rams and the Ravens.

All is not well for the Chicago Bears. Chicago lost on a Washington Hail Mary in Week 8 and then got steamrolled by the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9. Its defense had a laughable effort against Arizona, while rookie QB Caleb Williams and the offense sputtered repeatedly.

The New England Patriots (+6.5), meanwhile, have looked like a competent team ever since rookie quarterback Drake Maye entered the lineup. Chicago is no lock in this matchup, though there's one factor to consider.

The Bears will be at home.

Under head coach Matt Eberflus, Chicago has a record of 3-18 on the road. The Bears are undefeated at home this season and have played a better brand of football at Soldier Field. Chicago also has the better defense in this matchup.

Even after last week's embarrassment, the Bears rank fifth in points allowed. The Patriots rank 25th in total defense and 21st in points allowed. In a potentially ugly game involving two rookie QBs, defense and home-field advantage should mean a lot.

And this may be the last time to really consider using Chicago in survivor. The Bears are entering a three-game home stretch, but after New England, they'll host the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. After that are trips to Detroit, San Francisco and Minnesota.

The Lions, Seattle Seahawks and Packers (at Green Bay) will round out Chicago's 2024 schedule.

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