Big Ten Football: Preview and Predictions for 2024 Season

Not only is the next era of the Big Ten ready to begin, but the 2024 college football season looks like it will be awfully kind to the conference.

Michigan is the reigning national champion, yet the Maize and Blue aren't even among the five most respected teams in the country. Ohio State and newcomer Oregon are safely within that range.

Oh, right, the new guys!

Along with Oregon, three more Pac-12 departures—UCLA, USC and Washington—are preparing for their Big Ten debut. The upcoming campaign will be the first season with 18 programs in the conference.

This preview includes top players, big storylines, key games and so many other topics to know in 2024.

How much time do we have?

Michigan has a mountain of production to replace, but several key players are still in Ann Arbor. That group features running back Donovan Edwards, defensive tackle Mason Graham and cornerback Will Johnson.

Oregon is loaded with talent, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel—who previously starred at UCF and Oklahoma—is the main attraction. He's the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite, while wide receiver Tez Johnson is one of the nation's best returning players at his position.

Ohio State added elite transfers in running back Quinshon Judkins and safety Caleb Downs to bolster a roster with fellow back TreVeyon Henderson, wideout Emeka Egbuka, edge-rusher Jack Sawyer, corner Denzel Burke and so many others.

More top defenders are Iowa defensive backs Sebastian Castro and Xavier Nwankpa, Penn State edge-rusher Abdul Carter and Wisconsin cornerback Ricardo Hallman.

Truly, that's just the beginning. We could be here a long time, especially now that the conference has 18 teams.

New Kids on the Block

Will the incoming Pac-12 programs have a bunch of hits? Or will the potential jet lag make them sick? I think it's fly when Oregon and USC stop by for the summer—er, the fall. In seriousness, Oregon arrives as a premier College Football Playoff contender. USC is somewhere on the periphery, while UCLA and Washington are aiming for a quality debut in what's suddenly a coast-to-coast conference.

The Ryan Day Situation

In five years as Ohio State's head coach, Ryan Day has compiled a 53-8 record. He's won a couple of Big Ten championships and overseen three CFP trips. Because the Buckeyes have dropped three straight to Michigan and failed to win a national title, however, he's not in a particularly comfortable spot. Ask me? Big overreaction. I don't control Day's job security, though. At the very least, he needs to beat Michigan in 2024.

How Many CFP Teams?

Since the Playoff is expanding to 12 invites, the Big Ten is positioned well to command a few slots. Ohio State and Oregon checked in as preseason top-five teams, and both Penn State and Michigan landed top-10 positions. Will all four match that billing, or will any drop out? Will someone else—say Iowa or USC—join the conversation?

Tier 1: Ohio State and Oregon

Famous last words, of course, but Ohio State may be the safest team in the country this season. The offense is loaded with playmakers, the defense is stacked with veterans and new quarterback Will Howard is perfectly competent. Enough to win a national title? Fair question even in the Big Ten, particularly as a presumably elite defense complements Dillon Gabriel at Oregon. Both should make the CFP.

Tier 2: Michigan and Penn State

Talent isn't an issue at either program. The issue at Michigan is a new, unproven quarterback with a roster in heavy transition. The challenge at Penn State is actually winning those big games, something that has eluded James Franklin for much of his decade-long tenure. Good teams, for sure. But are they great?

Tier 3: Anyone Else

Do you like USC? Great! Have a feeling Iowa can take advantage of a favorable slate? You got it. Hoping for a shocker? You do you, boo. I will not reside in this territory, but I appreciate your spunk.

Unlike last season, no Big Ten coach opens the 2024 campaign on a legitimately warm seat. Anyone mentioned here is basically on a watch list, not an it's-almost-time-to-panic list.

Nevertheless, a few coaches are worth monitoring.

In an earlier section, I mentioned Ryan Day's predicament in Columbus. His overall record is great, but a fourth consecutive loss to Michigan may feel calamitous within the fan base. And, hey, when boosters threaten to stop writing checks, changes tend to follow. Don't rule it out.

Lincoln Riley sits in a similar place at USC, looking reasonably safe but certainly needing to avoid a disastrous year. Illinois boss Bret Bielema is probably around that category, too.

Keep an eye on Maryland's Mike Locksley, Purdue's Ryan Walters and UCLA's DeShaun Foster, but none are worse than lukewarm today.

Nonconference Games

Aug. 31: Penn State at West Virginia
Sep. 1: LSU vs. USC (in Las Vegas)
Sep. 7: Texas at Michigan; Colorado at Nebraska; Boise State at Oregon
Sep. 14: Alabama at Wisconsin

The opening weekend brings a rivalry game for Penn State and an intriguing neutral-site clash for USC. But there's no doubt the conference is looking to make a statement in Week 2 as Michigan hosts a championship contender, Nebraska rekindles a Big 12 rivalry and Oregon takes on one of the best programs in the Group of Five.

Top Conference Matchups

Oct. 12: Ohio State at Oregon
Nov. 2: Oregon at Michigan; Ohio State at Penn State
Nov. 30: Michigan at Ohio State

In short, we're locked onto the round-robin involving Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon. If any team manages a 2-0 record in those showdowns, it'd be shocking to not see that program in the Big Ten title game. Penn State's schedule does not include Michigan or Oregon, so a victory over Ohio State would be massive for the Nittany Lions.

Best of the Rest

Sep. 21: USC at Michigan
Oct. 5: Michigan at Washington
Oct. 12: Penn State at USC
Nov. 16: Oregon at Wisconsin
Nov. 30: Washington at Oregon

Save for the former Pac-12 clash of Washington and Oregon, the rest of these contests were atypical games in the past. Now, they're all conference tilts—and perhaps headlined by a rematch of last season's national championship when Michigan visits Washington.

The Pick: Oregon Ducks

Last season, quarterback Bo Nix propelled Oregon to No. 2 national rankings in both yards per play (7.8) and points per game (44.2). He's now vying for a starting job with the Denver Broncos in the NFL.

Ordinarily, losing a star QB of his caliber is a problem.

However, an offense typically doesn't replace a player like Nix with someone who's similarly productive. Nix finished his career with the sixth-most passing yards in FBS history, and Gabriel is set to open the campaign in eighth. In all likelihood, he'll climb to No. 2 in 2024.

Gabriel's supporting cast is loaded in every direction. Offensive tackles Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius are both highly respected, and the blocking unit overall is a veteran group. Tez Johnson notched 86 catches for 1,182 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, and transfer Evan Stewart bolsters a deep receiving corps.

Jordan James and Noah Whittington would've been a great one-two punch in the backfield, yet Oregon flexed its muscle in the transfer portal and added D-II All-American Jay Harris.

There is just a laughable amount of talent—in a very complimentary manner—on the Ducks' offense.

The Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes

Exactly like 2023, I wouldn't even argue with a few other options. Ohio State should be stellar on defense, and Michigan absolutely has that potential once again. Penn State and Wisconsin routinely are strong defensively, and Oregon may be built to dominate, too. As if that's not enough, Nebraska has a potentially great unit.

Seriously, the Big Ten is a nightmare for offenses.

That's the long version of saying Iowa could put a special defense on the field—which isn't close to surprising.

All-American nickelback Sebastian Castro is the most accomplished player on the defense coordinated by Phil Parker, the reigning Broyles Award winner as the nation's top assistant coach. Xavier Nwankpa is among the country's best safeties, while linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson combined for a staggering 281 tackles last season.

Iowa is dealing with a massive quarterback question that probably will silence championship hopes. But if the Hawkeyes actually manage to find a good solution there, the defense can lead the way.

1. Oregon

2. Ohio State

3. Penn State

4. Michigan

5. Iowa

6. USC

7. Wisconsin

8. Rutgers

9. Nebraska

10. Maryland

11. Washington

12. Michigan State

13. Minnesota

14. Northwestern

15. Illinois

16. UCLA

17. Indiana

18. Purdue

Boring? Sure.

Picking the league's two highest-ranked teams in the preseason to make the championship game is not bold. Praise for both Oregon and Ohio State is not difficult to find as the season is set to begin.

I'd rather be boring and correct than bold and wrong, though. These two programs are clearly built to excel in 2024.

Best of all, we get a preview of this potential clash when Oregon hosts Ohio State on Oct. 12. For history fanatics out there, it's the first regular-season tilt between the teams in Eugene since 1967.

Michigan has a direct opportunity to upend both squads and merits respect as the league's three-time reigning champion. Iowa and Penn State have extremely favorable slates to the point that an upset of Ohio State can create an enjoyable twist in the Big Ten race, too.

But I'll stick to the chalk—and not regret it for a second.