Predicting the 10 Biggest Contracts of the 2024 NFL Offseason

The frenzy of the NFL offseason begins with the scouting combine, but free agency will soon take center stage.

Before the market officially opens, franchises will be negotiating with their own players. If no contract is agreed upon, however, several All-Pros and other stars will be free to speak with other teams in March.

And a good chunk of them are going to be paid handsomely.

This list is subjective but based on projected annual value for impending free agents. Players at the same position are grouped into one section to help contrast salary expectations for comparable top free agents.

Extensions and new contracts for players who may be released during the offseason are not considered.

Kirk Cousins
Contract Projection: Two years, $82 million with Minnesota Vikings, including $70 million guaranteed

Even after an Achilles injury ended his 2023 season, the single-largest annual value will belong to Kirk Cousins.

The questions, however, are simple: How long and with which team?

Without a doubt, the Minnesota Vikings would prefer to keep him. Despite that injury, Cousins—who will turn 36 in August—has otherwise been a durable QB, so he's not an abnormal injury risk. He'd been playing at a decently high level before the unfortunate setback, too.

Wherever he lands, it's fair to expect Cousins will ink a two- or three-year contract with no less than $35 million per season and likely above $40 million.

Baker Mayfield
Contract Projection: Three years, $81 million with Tampa Bay Buccaneers, including $48 million guaranteed

Following a tough 2022 season, Baker Mayfield received what seemed like his final chance to hold a starting job. He signed a one-year deal, joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to compete with Kyle Trask.

Mayfield is destined to cash in his redemption story, and the Bucs should be the clear favorite to sign him.

But it'll be far more expensive.

Last offseason, Geno Smith—fresh off his late-career comeback season—signed a three-year, $75 million pact with $40 million guaranteed (and $30 million more in incentives). That's the benchmark for Mayfield, whose agreement will likely be structured similarly with bonuses.

Mike Evans
Contract Projection: Three years, $80 million with Tampa Bay Buccaneers, including $65 million guaranteed

Shortly before the 2023 season began, Mike Evans made headlines with his deadline for an extension from the Bucs. The day passed, making it clear Evans would head to free agency in March.

As a result, he'll be the most established receiver on the market. Evans has surpassed 1,000 yards in all 10 seasons and just caught a league-best 13 touchdowns in 2023.

Yes, age could be a factor in negotiations; Evans will be 31 years old when the 2024 campaign begins. However, that also means this contract will likely be his final high-dollar deal, and Evans presumably wants to maximize the value and term of the deal.

Although a homecoming with the Houston Texans looks appealing on paper for the Galveston native, Mayfield's return to Tampa may keep Evans in town, too.

Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr.
Contract Projection: Franchise tag of one year, approximately $21.7 million with current teams

Both the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts have plenty of reasons to lock in Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr., respectively, on long-term contracts this offseason.

The more likely outcome, though, is the franchise tag—which Over the Cap projects for $21.7 million.

Cincinnati is entering a delicate financial situation with Joe Burrow's huge extension and Ja'Marr Chase's looming deal. Higgins is due a substantial raise, and the Bengals have repeatedly said they want to keep him, but finding an agreeable solution will not be easy.

Pittman, meanwhile, has publicly stated he's not averse to the franchise tag. Indy can slap the exclusive tag on Pittman to prevent negotiations elsewhere and extend its window to work out a long-term contract.

Josh Allen and Brian Burns
Contract Projection: Franchise tag of one year, approximately $23.3 million with current teams

Hindsight is 20/20, as they say, but the Jacksonville Jaguars may wish they would've operated differently last offseason.

Rather than extending his deal, they simply had Josh Allen play the 2023 season on his fifth-year option. He proceeded to rack up 66 tackles with a franchise-record 17.5 sacks, only raising the value of his next pact.

Montez Sweat signed a four-year, $98 million extension with $72.9 million guaranteed after the Chicago Bears acquired him. Based on his performance, Allen deserves an even higher salary.

The problem is Jacksonville can save a few million with the tag—which is the same story for Brian Burns and the Carolina Panthers.

Through five years, he's recorded no less than 7.5 sacks each season. The going rate for elite edge-rushers is around $25 million, and Burns is easily in that conversation. But, again, it's less expensive for the team to utilize the franchise tag.

Danielle Hunter
Contract Projection: Three years, $67 million with Detroit Lions, including $51 million guaranteed

Presuming the Vikings keep Cousins, their cap crunch might result in Danielle Hunter leaving on the open market.

Worse yet, he might not travel far.

Hunter has notched 10-plus sacks in five of his eight seasons and tallied a career-best 16.5 in 2023. His value, quite literally, has never been higher. While it's bad (self-inflicted) financial timing for Minnesota, the NFC North-rival Detroit Lions are lurking with a major pass-rushing need.

Losing him to anyone would pain the Vikings, but watching him leave for a division foe would only add to the sting.

Chris Jones
Contract Projection: Four years, $116 million with Houston Texans, including $80 million guaranteed

Dating back to his breakout 2018 season, Chris Jones has secured AP All-Pro recognition in five of the last six years. He's been the league's most impactful D-lineman beyond Los Angeles Rams star Aaron Donald.

But will the Chiefs want to pony up?

Kansas City already showed its willingness to part with a superstar, shipping Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins two years ago. There's at least a chance KC slaps the tag on Jones and perhaps trades him later.

If he's not extended or tagged, however, the Texans stand out as a prime landing spot. Houston has more than $50 million in space, according to Over the Cap, and should be maximizing its flexibility to add stars during quarterback C.J. Stroud's rookie contract.

Christian Wilkins
Contract Projection: Four years, $92 million with Miami Dolphins, including $48 million guaranteed

With a nod to Justin Madubuike of the Baltimore Ravens, Christian Wilkins may command the second-largest price.

In five seasons with the Dolphins, he's become a reliable force in the middle of the defensive line. Wilkins registered career-high totals of nine sacks, 30 pressures and 23 quarterback hits in 2023.

Although he's two years older than Daron Payne, their contracts should be reasonably similar. Last offseason, the Washington Commanders inked Payne to a four-year extension worth $90 million with $45 million guaranteed after his career-best output of 11.5 sacks.

The trouble for Miami is simple: money. The team is already $50-plus million in the red for 2024, per Over the Cap. Cap gymnastics are always possible, though, and the Dolphins can hardly afford to lose Wilkins—especially since edge-rusher Bradley Chubb could miss a chunk of the season following his Week 17 torn ACL.