Predicting the Landing Spot for the Top 2024 NFL Free Agent at Every Position

The Super Bowl LVIII matchup is set, which means that the ever-turning NFL calendar will be focused on free agency soon enough.

March 5 is the final day that teams can apply franchise or transition tags, which should give us a pretty clear picture of who is going to be at the top of each positional market.

Until then, we can speculate about who will become available and where they might best fit based on need, scheme and salary-cap situation.

In many cases, the top player who could become available will wind up returning to their current team. But there are multiple talented players who appear to be headed elsewhere.

Here's a look at the top free agent from each positional group and a prediction for where they will end up based on those speculative factors.

Kirk Cousins is going to be one of the biggest dominoes to fall in this year's quarterback market. He played out his most recent extension from Minnesota and will hit free agency if the Vikings don't work out a deal before March.

That doesn't mean the 35-year-old won't return, though.

In the aftermath of the Achilles injury that ended Cousins' season in November, The Athletic's Dianna Russini offered some insight into the team's thinking around the signal-caller.

"Though his future is unclear, conversations I've had with sources over the last few months suggest Minnesota will try to bring him back and that there are many in the building who want that," she wrote.

It has to help his chances of returning that the three Vikings starters who played after Cousins was injured went a combined 3-6 as the starters. The team was 4-4 when the veteran was healthy, and the Packers made the playoffs at 9-8.

The Vikings are not in a good position to draft one of the top quarterbacks in April, so they should be involved with a strong offer to bring back Cousins.

However, the Falcons are also a logical candidate. They just fired Arthur Smith and owner Arthur Blank is 81 years old. He seems to be making aggressive moves to ensure his team is a player in the NFC South.

The Falcons just brought in Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator. He, like Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell, comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree.

The pairing makes sense, but the Vikings and Falcons have similar cap situations. Familiarity might give Minnesota the edge.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings

The market value of running backs has been a hotly discussed issue each offseason. It's a conversation that won't get any quieter with a free-agent class that includes Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler.

Saquon Barkley could have been a free agent last offseason, but the Giants used the franchise tag to keep him on the roster for at least one more season. It changed his perspective on remaining with New York throughout his career.

"Yeah, I mean it never crossed my mind until last year after I got tagged," he told Zion Olojede of Complex. "Up until that moment, I really believe that I was gonna finish my career as a New York Giant. You know, that was a goal of mine."

That's a lot of past tense in a short quote, but Barkley also acknowledged that returning to the Giants is "still in play."

Unfortunately for the Penn State product, he might not have much say in the matter. The Giants can tag him again for 120 percent of whatever he made last season, which would put him around $12.2 million. Essentially, he would have played on a two-year contract worth $22.3 million.

That's still a good deal for the Giants, and they don't have to commit long-term to the soon-to-be 27-year-old.

The Bears and Texans are teams to consider. They both have a lot of cap space and young quarterbacks on rookie deals, and Barkley would be an upgrade. But it's a lot more likely that he is headed for the tag again.

Prediction: New York Giants

Last year's free-agent class was a little weak at wide receiver, but the 2024 group is making up for it. Tee Higgins is the headliner because of his previous production, his age (25) and the potential for him to put up even better numbers as a team's No. 1 receiver.

However, Michael Pittman Jr. and Mike Evans are also WR1-caliber receivers who could become available.

If Higgins is allowed to hit the market, he's going to have plenty of suitors. Wide receiver has become a premium position and multiple teams have the cap space and a desperate need and would throw a huge contract at the receiver.

Higgins struggled this season, but that's easily chalked up to a rib injury early in the season and a hamstring issue late. Losing Joe Burrow for the season didn't help matters, but this is still a 25-year-old receiver with some elite traits and two 1,000-yard campaigns already on his resume.

The problem is that the Bengals can prevent him from hitting the open market. They do have a Ja'Marr Chase extension on the horizon, but they have $61.4 million in cap space, per Spotrac. They also project that the tag for a wide receiver will cost $20.7 million.

This season was drastically impacted by Burrow's injury. A tag-and-trade scenario is possible if Cincinnati feels it can replace Higgins through the draft, but it's even more likely it tags him and keeps the core together for one more season.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals

For the second year in a row, Dalton Schultz will be the top tight end in the free-agent market. He also doesn't have much competition.

It's a relatively weak year for the position. Schultz had over 200 more yards (635) than any other tight end who will be available. He was a solid, consistent option for C.J. Stroud in his wildly successful rookie season.

Unfortunately for other teams, he's yet another top-rated skill player who it's hard to see leaving.

For one, Schultz had one of his best seasons on his one-year deal with the Texans. His 2021 campaign still stands out as his best, but his 2023 numbers were slightly above the rest of his time with the Dallas Cowboys. He also happens to have carved out a critical role in an ascending offense.

"He's been a very reliable target," Stroud told reporters of his tight end. "He's somebody who knows how to get open. He knows coverage. He knows route depth and how to manipulate somebody and how to get into a certain zone at the right time. He's a smart player."

The Texans are flush with cap space and only have a few other notable internal free agents they need to earmark money for. They can comfortably offer Schultz, 27, a multi-year extension.

If he decides he wants to leave, then the Cincinnati Bengals or the Washington Commanders would make sense. The Bengals could use a veteran with proven production to pair with Joe Burrow while the Commanders would utilize him like the Texans did as a reliable target to help whatever young quarterback is starting for them next season.

Prediction: Houston Texans

Trent Brown has not been known for consistency throughout his career, but he dialed up his efforts this season.

Even on a fledgling Patriots offense, he stood out with a PFF grade that ranked him 10th among all the tackles in the NFL.

Now he's about to collect the rewards.

The 30-year-old's expiring contract included incentives for him to stay in shape, reportedly including bonuses for hitting certain weight benchmarks throughout the offseason and into the season. That included $25,000 for being 365 pounds or less each Thursday during the campaign.

Finding good offensive linemen on the free-agent market isn't always easy. That should make Brown even more valuable to teams as he goes into the open market on the strength of a good season.

It also means the Florida product could look to go to a team that isn't in the middle of a full-on rebuild. In some ways, a strong season in which he gave up just three sacks was wasted on a team that still gave up 48 total sacks.

A team with a better shot of contending is bound to throw the bag at Brown. The New York Jets have to get aggressive to fix their offensive line. Their cap situation doesn't look great right now, but Over The Cap estimates they have the potential to get to around $45.4 million in room, which would give them enough to offer him a tempting deal.

Prediction: New York Jets

It's rare for a defensive tackle to be the best free agent in a given class, but that's where Chris Jones belongs. He's a one-man wrecking crew who can transform a defensive front.

He was, arguably, the best interior defender in the league this season. He boasted a pass-rush win rate of 20 percent, which tied with Aaron Donald for the highest mark. However, Donald saw double teams on 63 percent of his pass rushes while Jones saw them on 72 percent, per ESPN Analytics.

There's a good chance Jones will be plying his trade with another team too. The Chiefs have shown they are willing to part with a star if they are going to be too expensive to retain with the trade that sent Tyreek Hill to Miami.

Jones held out early in the 2023 season and the Chiefs were able to solve the issue by reworking his contract, but it also raised his franchise tag to $32.2 million.

That's going to be a tough figure to swallow for a team that only has $24.9 million available going into the offseason.

Jones should be a popular target in free agency. Having that kind of interior defender who can consistently generate pressure can take a defense to the next level.

After watching the Houston Texans advance to the divisional round in C.J. Stroud's rookie year, they could emerge as a contender for his services. The advantage of having a stellar quarterback on a rookie deal and several other young pieces is that they have the cap space to get aggressive.

Prediction: Houston Texans

Patrick Queen made himself some money this season. There are some recognizable names at the top of this free-agent class, but his combination of age (24) and production should make him the top target.

The LSU product was an instrumental part of a defense that finished No. 1 in defensive DVOA. He played over 1,000 snaps with 133 tackles, four sacks, six quarterback hits, a forced fumble and an interception.

However, the 2020 first-round pick has a high chance of leaving Baltimore on paper.

The Ravens' roster moves over the last year have pointed toward a future without Queen. They traded for Roquan Smith last season and handed him a five-year, $100 million contract. Then they drafted Trenton Simpson in the third round of the 2023 draft.

It's hard to see them giving a second off-ball linebacker another big contract.

There are others that should be interested, though. The Chargers and Steelers both have a pressing need for a linebacker.

However, we'll go with a two-part prediction here. Mike Macdonald—who interviewed for the Seahawks job on Tuesday—gets hired by the Seahawks, and Queen follows his defensive coordinator to the Pacific Northwest. The Seahawks have ways to clear significant cap space while Jordyn Brooks is coming off a down year and Bobby Wagner isn't getting any younger.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks

The top cornerback in the class is going to be a beauty-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder situation.

There's a strong case to be made for Jaylon Johnson. The 24-year-old is coming off a season in which he had four interceptions, 10 passes defended and allowed a passer rating of 50.9.

However, L'Jarius Sneed is getting the nod in this spot because of degree of difficulty.

While Johnson was 82nd in man coverage rate and 87th in shadow rate, Sneed was charged with playing man and shadowing the team's best receiver at the third-highest rate in the league, per Player Profiler.

Despite drawing the toughest assignments, he picked off two passes, had 14 passes defended and allowed a passer rating of 56.2.

Sneed is especially valuable to the Kansas City Chiefs. Steve Spagnuolo's defense is all about creating pressure, and he asks his corners to play press-man often.

With the Chiefs already looking like they are going to lose Chris Jones, it's hard to see them letting Snead get away. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler provided this update in November:

"Kansas City would like to keep Sneed and has had preliminary contract talks with him, but right now both sides appear focused on the current season. Talks could reignite after it ends, and if they go nowhere, Sneed is a franchise tag or free agency candidate."

In other words, the Chiefs would likely be willing to use the franchise tag, worth a projected $18.8 million, if they can't get an extension done.

That's a lot more doable than Jones's $32.2 million tag. Sneed is likely staying home.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

Antoine Winfield Jr. has made his mark as one of the top safeties in the league.

His key selling point is going to be his versatility, which makes him a fit for most schemes. He can play the deep-third, or he can be on the line of scrimmage as a slot defender.

After watching Jessie Bates III snag a four-year, $64 million contract on the open market last season, there are a lot of reasons for him to see what kind of offers he can get out there.

The Bucs have quite a few major decisions to make with Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield, Devin White and Lavonte David all set to hit free agency, so it isn't clear where Winfield will land on the hierarchy.

If they aren't convinced on handing the 25-year-old a top-of-the-market deal, then some teams should be.

The Tennessee Titans traded away Kevin Byard this season and could stand to add a safety of Winfield's caliber as they build the defense in the post-Mike Vrabel era.

The Packers would be a team to watch, too. They got by with some value free agents this season, but making a real investment could take the secondary to the next level.

Prediction: Tennessee Titans