The 2024 Hope Meter for Every MLB Team That Missed the Playoffs

The 2023-24 offseason isn't over yet, but it has gotten to a point where you can almost hear the comforting sounds of spring training.

So, let's try to be optimistic. Or at least, as optimistic as possible under the circumstances.

Because the idea today, friends, is to set the 2024 Hope Meter for the 18 teams that missed out on Major League Baseball's 2023 playoffs. It has three levels: Low, Medium and High.

Where teams landed on this spectrum came down partly to what they've done this offseason, but other factors were considered as well. Is a team going into the season with any momentum? What's its incumbent talent like? And, with help from B/R's Joel Reuter's latest rankings, is there more talent standing by down on the farm?

We'll go in ascending order of teams' records from last season, with DraftKings' World Series odds for 2024 serving as a tiebreaker.

2023 Record: 50-112, 5th in AL West

2024 World Series Odds: +25000

2024 Hope Meter: Subterranean

So, about the 2024 Hope Meter only having three levels. Like John Matrix in Commando, I lied.

If anyone needs reminding, the A's are coming off one of the most dismal seasons in MLB history. The 112 losses were bad enough, but even worse was their minus-339 run differential. Not 1899 Cleveland Spiders bad, perhaps, yet still the all-time worst for a 162-game season.

The A's will benefit from having Zack Gelof for a whole season in 2024, and maybe there's something left to be mined from newcomers Abraham Toro and Miguel Andújar. But with little in the way of MLB-ready talent in the club's 24th-ranked farm system, there's really not a whole lot else on which to hang one's hat.

Which is a shame, because one would hope that ownership would want to leave Oakland with a bang before heading to Las Vegas. Alas, it seems simply leaving Oakland is good enough for John Fisher.

2023 Record: 56-106, 5th in AL Central

2024 World Series Odds: +15000

2024 Hope Meter: Medium

It was a rough season the Royals had in 2023, but at least they finished strong with a 15-12 record after Sep. 1. And, in a refreshing twist, they've acted accordingly this winter.

Only four teams have outdone the $105 million the Royals have sunk into free agency, and that money has mostly been well spent on pitching upgrades. To wit, newcomers Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo combined for a 3.40 ERA over 280.2 innings last season.

Among the incumbents, Bobby Witt Jr. continued his ascent as a burgeoning superstar in 2023 by way of the Royals' first ever 30-30 season. Kansas City may also have a burgeoning ace in Cole Ragans, who permitted only a .195 average in 12 starts to finish last year.

Is there enough depth elsewhere on the roster or in the farm system to support a playoff push in 2024? It's doubtful. But if all Royals fans want to see is something better than a 100-ish-loss team, they should get their wish.

2023 Record: 59-103, 5th in NL West

2024 World Series Odds: +25000

2024 Hope Meter: Low

It took 31 years, but the Rockies finally experienced their first 100-loss season in 2023. But they only deserved to lose 102 games, so...hope?

Kris Bryant's presumptive move to first base should help keep him healthy, at least. And since top prospects Adael Amador and Yanquiel Fernandez both made it to Double-A in 2023, it's possible the Rockies will soon have further young company for Nolan Jones, Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle.

So, yeah, there's hope...so long as you don't glance at how the Rockies project for 2024.

According to FanGraphs, they project to produce the fewest wins above replacement of any team this year. Maybe newcomer hurlers Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson will have something to say about that, but I also don't know if the word "maybe" has ever done heavier lifting than it just did.

2023 Record: 61-101, 4th in AL Central

2024 World Series Odds: +20000

2024 Hope Meter: Low

At the least, one can look at how the White Sox are going into 2024 and conclude that this year can't possibly be worse than last year.

Ostensible trade chips like Dylan Cease, Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez are still around, after all. New general manager Chris Getz has otherwise made some nifty additions, with hurlers Erick Fedde and Michael Soroka specifically offering plenty in the way of upside.

Better health could also lift the Pale Hose in 2024. Jiménez and Yoán Moncada are both due for full seasons, and Garrett Crochet will be all the way back from Tommy John surgery.

But those projections that have the Rockies as the worst in MLB? They also have the White Sox as the worst in the American League. If that's the way the ship is headed, the waters will only get choppier if the Sox deal the aforementioned trade chips over the summer.

2023 Record: 71-91, 5th in NL East

2024 World Series Odds: +15000

2024 Hope Meter: Medium

While basically nobody was looking, the Nationals darn near salvaged a winning record in the second half by going 35-37 after the All-Star break last year.

The pitching remained suspect, but at least there's 2023 All-Star Josiah Gray. The latter part of '23 also saw CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz hit something resembling a stride, with the latter hitting .300 and the former stealing 33 bases with 11 home runs on the side.

Meanwhile, the Nats boast MLB.com's No. 4 and No. 7 prospects in outfielders Dylan Crews and James Wood. As both made it as far as Double-A last year, each should make his major league debut at some point this year.

Still, let's be clear that what we're talking about is a team that should be more watchable, but probably still won't be good. The NL East won't make it easy on the Nats, as they're the only one of the five teams in the division that won't necessarily be eyeing the playoffs this year.

2023 Record: 71-91, 5th in NL Central

2024 World Series Odds: +3000

2024 Hope Meter: High

The story of how the Cardinals finished in last place in 2023 for the first time since 1990 is a long one, but it has a simple premise: Everything went wrong.

What matters now is that the Cardinals were quick to do what they set out to do this winter, which was add three starting pitchers. Sonny Gray, a noted FIP maestro, is the big prize as the club's new ace, while Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn figure to at least soak up innings.

Otherwise, the offense the Cardinals carried out of 2023 always looked fine as is. That will remain the case in 2024 if Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt rebound from semi-down seasons, and if young slugger Jordan Walker continues breaking out after finishing last year with an .802 OPS over 97 games.

Add in the sheer potential of top prospects Masyn Winn and Tink Hence and the Milwaukee Brewers' blatant abdication as the team to beat in the NL Central, and all the necessary ingredients are there for the Cards to get their groove back in 2024.

2023 Record: 73-89, 4th in AL West

2024 World Series Odds: +15000

2024 Hope Meter: Low

The disclaimer on the Angels is that what they're building for 2024 is very much incomplete.

They've added a few relief pitchers, but a $61 million gap between what they spent in 2023 and what they project to spend in 2023 still remains. That's enough for two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, who's reportedly of interest. There's also enough for one-time MVP Cody Bellinger, who looks like a fit.

It's obviously too late to re-sign Shohei Ohtani, however, and even scoring Snell and Bellinger wouldn't make up for losing him. A bad omen, considering how bad the Angels were even with Ohtani in 2023.

Meanwhile, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are injury-prone stars whose primes are firmly behind them, and the Angels are otherwise sitting on one of the league's worst farm systems. It's not good, in other words, and even that's sugarcoating it.

2023 Record: 75-87, 4th in NL East

2024 World Series Odds: +3500

2024 Hope Meter: Medium

It was this time last year that the Mets were speeding toward 2023 with World Series aspirations. In case anyone somehow missed it, things, uh, didn't work out.

Which brings us to the bummer of the current moment, wherein the Mets are not a World Series favorite. They might have become one with a splashy offseason, but adding guys like Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Harrison Bader is more like a ripple.

Yet the Mets are simultaneously oddly underrated, particularly on the offensive side. The Pete Alonso-Francisco Lindor-Brandon Nimmo trio is still there, while former prospects Francisco Álvarez and Brett Baty are both huge breakout candidates for this season.

If Kodai Senga and a healthy Edwin Díaz also do their thing at the top of the rotation and in the ninth inning, respectively, the Mets figure to at least be a wild-card contender in 2024. And, hey, if you can't be a World Series favorite, be a World Series underdog.

2023 Record: 76-86, 4th in NL Central

2024 World Series Odds: +12000

2024 Hope Meter: Medium

The Pirates are, if nothing else, moving in the right direction.

An 86-loss season is nothing to be ashamed of after back-to-back seasons of 100 losses. And there are danged fun players here, including Ke'Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski on the offensive side and Mitch Keller and David Bednar on the pitching side.

Plus, Oneil Cruz is healthy again after fracturing his ankle last April, and the Pirates have the right idea in wanting to see what former No. 1 pick Henry Davis can do behind the plate. And in right-hander Paul Skenes, another No. 1 pick is knocking.

A mere $16.2 million splurge in free agency isn't going to get the Pirates over, say, 90 wins this year. But there's reason enough to believe that they could enjoy their first winning season since 2018, which would at least open the door to a wild-card spot.

2023 Record: 76-86, 3rd in AL Central

2024 World Series Odds: +6500

2024 Hope Meter: Medium

Last year wasn't much of a send-off for future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona, least of all amid a second half that saw the Guardians go 31-41.

It's since been an unsurprisingly yet still frustratingly quiet winter. The Guardians have notably failed to add power, thereby setting up José Ramírez to once again carry an unfairly heavy burden in an offense that produced a league-low 124 home runs in 2023.

And yet, Cleveland's pitching could be lethal if Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie stay healthy and if Tanner Bibee, Cody Allen and Gavin Williams build on strong debuts. Combine what the first two did in 2022 with what the latter three did in 2023, and you get a 3.12 ERA.

Another positive is that neither the Minnesota Twins nor the Detroit Tigers have done much this winter to rise further above Cleveland. It's not exactly a route to the World Series, but a route to the AL Central title is there.

2023 Record: 78-84, 2nd in AL Central

2024 World Series Odds: +6500

2024 Hope Meter: Medium

With the Tigers having made a 12-win improvement from 2022 to 2023, Detroit fans have every reason to be disgruntled with how the team has handled the offseason.

Gone is Eduardo Rodriguez, and no big splashes have been made to account for his departure. Guys like Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha are nice, but they're not needle-movers either.

What hope there is for another step forward in 2024 hinges on the incumbents. And to this end, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter did their best to inspire confidence with their 2023 breakouts. And you didn't hear this from me, but Tarik Skubal might have been MLB's most dominant starter after returning from flexor tendon surgery.

There's also still talent in Detroit's farm system, including slugging infielder Colt Keith. The sooner he gets involved, the sooner the Tigers' own path to the AL Central title will open up.

2023 Record: 78-84, 5th in AL East

2024 World Series Odds: +4000

2024 Hope Meter: Low

"Full-throttle" was how Red Sox chairman Tom Werner described the team's mode heading into the offseason. And it sounded good!

But at least so far, the reality just plain sucks. Whatever trading Chris Sale and Alex Verdugo and adding only Lucas Giolito, Tyler O'Neill and Vaughn Grissom is, it's not full-throttle. Heck, it might not even be neutral.

And it's a shame, because the Red Sox do have pieces on which to build a contender. Namely, an offense with Rafael Devers and Triston Casas in the middle and a pitching staff with Brayan Bello in the rotation and Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin in the bullpen.

It would seem that new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow's eyes are on the future. If so, the least Boston could do is give its fans a glimpse at Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony and/or Kyle Teel at some point in 2024.

2023 Record: 79-83, 4th in NL West

2024 World Series Odds: +5000

2024 Hope Meter: Low

The Giants were a bland team in 2023. Unflavored, even. Whatever the case, they were certainly a team that went into the winter in need of big splashes.

Does signing Jung Hoo Lee and Jordan Hicks and trading for Robbie Ray count? One supposes, but only if one ignores that the Giants whiffed on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. And that, at least so far, they haven't made good on occasional connections for Snell, Bellinger or Matt Chapman.

The result is yet another team destined for the middle of the road, and probably too far from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West to hope of even sniffing their dust.

Could the Giants at least be more entertaining in 2024? Sure, let's give them that. Lee has the potential to be a fun hitter, and top prospects Marco Luciano and Kyle Harrison should be in the lineup and rotation, respectively, from Day 1.

2023 Record: 82-80, 3rd in NL Central

2024 World Series Odds: +5000

2024 Hope Meter: High

The Reds were already threatening respectability when they promoted Elly De La Cruz last June, so it wasn't surprising when they made the leap with a 55-47 finish.

True, De La Cruz mostly struggled after the All-Star break. But the vibe shift that coincided with his arrival remained, and you can still feel it when gazing at the Reds' 2024 lineup and seeing eight talented 20-something hitters plus newcomer veteran Jeimer Candelario.

Whether the pitching will be there is the question. But if it is, it's going to be capital-T There. The incumbent Hunter Greene-Graham Ashcraft-Andrew Abbott trio is talented as heck, while veterans Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez are two capable new additions.

There's probably a wide range of outcomes for the 2024 Reds, but one in which they copy the playbook of the 2022-23 Baltimore Orioles shouldn't be ruled out. That's what Reds fans should be hoping for, and not even in a foolhardy way.

2023 Record: 82-80, 3rd in NL West

2024 World Series Odds: +4000

2024 Hope Meter: Low

For the record, the 82 games the Padres won last year were with Bob Melvin in the manager's chair, Juan Soto in left field, Josh Hader in the closer's role and Wacha, Lugo and Martinez in the rotation.

They're gone now, and all the Michael Kings and Yuki Matsuis in the world aren't going to make anyone not notice it.

Granted, any team with Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. in its lineup and Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove in its rotation isn't hopeless. And if the Padres do make a push, they have the farm system depth to potentially make big adds at the trade deadline.

Yet, alas, the only thing that seems to matter right now is getting the payroll below $200 million. If ceding NL West superiority to the Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks and maybe even the Giants is the cost of doing business, well, so be it.

2023 Record: 82-80, 4th in AL East

2024 World Series Odds: +900

2024 Hope Meter: Medium

Even Yankees general manager Brian Cashman called the club's 2023 season a "disaster," but at least it ended on an upswing with a 17-11 record after Sep. 1.

If that felt good for Yankees fans, then adding Verdugo, Trent Grisham and especially Soto in trades must have felt even better. Left-handed hitters? At Yankee Stadium? What a concept!

Just a short while later, however, it feels like a rug has been pulled. To expect Yamamoto only to get Marcus Stroman is, to quote an old friend, not what you want. And that may be it for the Yankees, which necessitates the question: Have they done enough?

To improve on 2023? Absolutely, especially if Aaron Judge can avoid any more fluke toe injuries. But to live up to those weirdly inflated World Series odds? Probably not. Those imply that the Yankees were just one superstar and a couple of lesser regulars away last season, and anyone with functioning eyes will know what wasn't the case.

2023 Record: 83-79, 2nd in NL Central

2024 World Series Odds: +3000

2024 Hope Meter: High

Though the Cubs didn't win the NL Central in 2023, they perhaps should have. A better manager might have made the difference, which helps explain the switch from David Ross to Craig Counsell.

That was exciting, and so was the pursuit of Ohtani while it lasted. But the latter obviously wasn't fruitful, and there's no ignoring the Bellinger-sized hole that remains in the lineup.

Yet swapping out Stroman for Shōta Imanaga could prove to be a rotation upgrade. There's otherwise no faulting the Cubs for the deal that brought Michael Busch and Yency Almonte to town, as it further upgraded both their roster and their already elite farm system.

Whether this is enough to vault the Cubs into World Series contention is debatable, and one supposes that makes the "High" up there debatable as well. But if I'm a Cubs fan—and I'm not, for the record—I still see a contender on the rise that hasn't lost ground in the division. And as such, my hopes are still up.

2023 Record: 88-74, 3rd in AL West

2024 World Series Odds: +2200

2024 Hope Meter: Medium

No team took a harder punch to the gut in 2023 than the Mariners. To go from having a share of first place as late as Sep. 4 to missing the playoffs altogether? Oof.

Is it fair to say the hits have kept coming? It seems like it. Mitch Garver was a nice add, but all the other parts that have moved around in Seattle this winter don't amount to much in the way of improvement.

There is, however, solace to take in the fact that Julio Rodríguez is still around. Oh, and in the very real case for the Mariners' pitching staff as the best from top to bottom in either league. If the team has done anything right this winter, it's deflect interest in its starting pitchers.

The bummer in having not improved is that the Mariners are missing a shot to leapfrog the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros in projections for the AL West. But since neither of them has dramatically improved either, the situation in the Pacific Northwest could be worse.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.