Teams on Upset Alert in Day 2 of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament
The 2024 men's NCAA tournament wasted little time giving us a memorable upset.
The No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats were sent packing by the No. 14 seed Oakland Golden Grizzlies on Thursday evening in an 80-76 thriller, with Jack Gohlke pouring in 32 points on 10-of-20 shooting from beyond the arc.
Which teams will be on upset watch Friday?
We've highlighted four higher seeds who are on upset alert heading into Friday's games, with a breakdown of what the higher seed needs to do to win and what the upset-minded team must do to stay alive. We've also included the moneyline as of Thursday night for each game via DraftKings.
Clemson Tigers (West Region, No. 6 Seed)
Opponent: No. 11 New Mexico
Moneyline: New Mexico (-148)
In a down year for the ACC, it was North Carolina, Duke and Clemson at the top of the heap and then everyone else. Virginia snuck into the NCAA tournament as a bubble team, and NC State claimed a No. 11 seed by winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament.
The Tigers had a strong season, with road wins over North Carolina and Alabama headlining their resume. However, they ended the season with a thud, losing to Wake Forest in the regular-season finale before getting demolished by a mediocre Boston College team in a lopsided 76-55 game in the ACC tournament opener.
With a low rate of forcing turnovers (9.3 per game, 344th in NCAA), poor offensive rebounding (9.2 per game, 267th in NCAA) and a low number of free throws taken (18.0, 243rd in NCAA), the Tiger don't score many easy points.
They open their NCAA tournament against a New Mexico team that just beat Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State and San Diego State in consecutive days to win the Mountain West tournament. The Lobos average 81.7 points per game and play with one of the fastest tempos in college basketball.
San Diego State (East Region, No. 5 Seed)
Opponent: No. 12 UAB
Moneyline: San Diego State (-278)
The San Diego State Aztecs reached the national championship game last year as a No. 5 seed, upsetting No. 1 Alabama along the way and winning a 72-71 thriller over Florida Atlantic in the Final Four before finally getting beat by UConn.
Defense is once again the calling card for the Aztecs, as they limit the opposition to 40.5 percent shooting from the field (16th in NCAA) and 30.5 percent from beyond the arc (27th in NCAA). That helped put them eighth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency.
Senior Jaedon LeDee has also given San Diego State the go-to scorer it was lacking a year ago. He emerged from a bench role last season to average 21.1 points and 8.4 rebounds per game en route to All-Mountain West honors this year.
That Aztecs defense will be tasked with slowing down a UAB squad that is peaking at the right time after upsetting South Florida in the AAC tournament before beating Temple in the title game. With wins over No. 8 seed Florida Atlantic and No. 10 seed Drake, the Blazers have proved that they're capable of beating a quality opponent.
Saint Mary's Gaels (West Region, No. 5 Seed)
Opponent: No. 12 Grand Canyon
Moneyline: Saint Mary's (-225)
For the first time since the 2011-12 season, the Gonzaga Bulldogs did not win at least a share of the West Coast Conference regular-season title. The rival Saint Mary's Gaels were the top dogs in the conference this year.
The Gaels won two of three head-to-head matchups with Gonzaga, including a 69-60 victory in the conference tournament title game. They also recorded Quad 1 victories over Colorado State and New Mexico.
Saint Mary's offense is well-rounded with four players who are averaging at least 10 points per game. Augustas Marciulionis won West Coast Conference Player of the Year honors with 12.4 points, 5.2 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game.
A thin rotation and poor free-throw shooting (67.8 percent, 315th in NCAA) are the biggest red flags for the Gaels. They open March Madness against a Grand Canyon squad that went 29-4 this year and was one of the few mid-major teams in the bubble conversation before claiming the automatic bid out of the WAC.
Wisconsin Badgers (South Region, No. 5 Seed)
Opponent: No. 12 James Madison
Moneyline: Wisconsin (-218)
The Wisconsin Badgers climbed as high as No. 6 in the AP poll during a 16-4 start to the season that included a home win against Marquette and a road victory over Michigan State. However, they looked like a shell of that team down the stretch with a 3-8 finish to the regular season.
The Badgers snapped out of it during the Big Ten tournament when they beat Northwestern behind a career-high 30 points from leading scorer AJ Storr and then upset No. 1 seed Purdue to reach the title game, where they lost to Illinois.
So, which Wisconsin team will show up for the NCAA tournament?
The Badgers don't like to push the tempo, and that's a big part of James Madison's game. The Dukes ranked No. 35 in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric.
If the James Madison team that beat then-No. 4 Michigan State in the season opener shows up Friday, the Badgers could be sent packing.
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