Buy or Sell the Biggest Shockers of Early MLB 2024 Win/Loss Projections

It'll be a while before the 2024 regular season begins, but the arrival of spring training means it's officially another kind of season in the interim.

That's right. Welcome to projections season, everyone.

There have been projections and playoff odds for 2024 up at Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs for about a week now. And anyone who knows anything about projections shouldn't need to hear it from me that there are some doozies in there.

For everyone else, well, there are some doozies in there.

The idea here and now is to play a good, ol' fashioned game of "Buy or Sell?" with the biggest shockers to be found among one or both sets of projections. This is all about gut feeling. If said feeling lines up with the projections, it's a buy. If not, it's a sell. Leans are also allowed, because sometimes it's not so cut and dried.

Let's start with a speed round and then tackle 10 shockers one at a time from there.

Will the Los Angeles Angels Slightly Improve?

The Angels lost 89 games in 2023, yet both Baseball Prospectus (74-88) and FanGraphs (78-84) project them to be slightly better this year. The unspoken message is that they'll make up for the loss of Shohei Ohtani in the aggregate.

Hooey. Ohtani was the best hitter and the best pitcher the Angels had last year, and they haven't filled his vacant shoes on either front. So unless Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon both turn back the clock by several years, the pain of Ohtani's departure is going to be felt.

Verdict: Sell

Will the Cincinnati Reds Finish Below .500?

Whereas the losses of Craig Counsell and Corbin Burnes make it perfectly sensible to expect the Milwaukee Brewers to likewise drop below .500, shouldn't the Reds be considered a team on the rise in the National League Central?

Perhaps they did play above their heads in going 82-80 last year, but it was notably despite a rotation that did its best to sabotage everything with a 5.43 ERA. That wasn't for lack of internal talent, however, and now Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez are aboard to take some of the load off said talent. It should work.

Verdict: Sell

Will the Miami Marlins Finish Below .500?

A team that went 84-78 and made the playoffs last year perhaps deserves more respect, but can anyone seriously make the case that the Marlins deserve a better projection?

They hypothetically benefited from luck more than any other team last year, and now they're going into 2024 sans Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John surgery) and Jorge Soler (free agency). Their list of major new additions, meanwhile, is basically empty.

Verdict: Buy

Will the Detroit Tigers Finish Below .500?

Last season saw the Tigers come close to cracking .500 for the first time since 2016, as they finished just three wins short at 78-84. But rather than push the envelope, they mostly had a quiet winter and are even set to lower their payroll in 2024.

Still, they deserve a bit more confidence than [points to above] that. There's plenty of young talent worth having faith in here, especially slugger Spencer Torkelson and left-hander Tarik Skubal after their ascendant 2023 seasons.

Verdict: Sell

This Is According to: FanGraphs, which has the Oakland Athletics going from 50 to 72 wins and the Kansas City Royals going from 56 to 76 wins.

Well, this much at least is true: It'll be hard for the A's and Royals to be any worse in 2024.

That the former lost 112 games and got outscored by 339 runs went unnoticed by nobody, but the Royals were lucky to basically fly under the radar last year. They were as bad or worse than the A's for much of the season, not really pulling away until they had a 10-1 stretch in the middle of September. That helped them finish with "only" 106 losses.

It's nonetheless easy to believe the Royals will be substantially better this year, if for no other reason than because they should benefit from $90 million worth of investments in new pitchers. Having Vinnie Pasquantino, who had shoulder surgery last summer, back alongside Bobby Witt Jr. in the lineup should also help.

As for the A's, on the other hand, really the only way to argue in favor of a 22-win swing is by saying, "Hey, stranger things have happened."

As much as I like the Zack Gelof-Brent Rooker-Ryan Noda trio, the rest of Oakland's roster pretty much consists of has-beens and never-will-bes. That should especially be felt on the pitching front, where the A's are unlikely to greatly improve on last year's 5.48 ERA.

Verdict: Buy on Royals, sell on A's

This Is According to: Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs, which both put the Chicago Cubs at 81-81.

Honestly? I can see it.

Though the Cubs went 83-79 last year and subsequently did well in replacing Marcus Stroman with Shōta Imanaga and otherwise signing Hector Neris, one thing that remains is a Cody Bellinger-sized hole in their starting lineup.

Bellinger co-led the Cubs with 26 home runs last season and was their sole leader with a .307 average and .525 slugging percentage. For now, the plan seems to be to hope that prospects Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong replace him in the aggregate.

Yet seeing as how both Busch (No. 52) and Crow-Armstrong (No. 12) are top-100 types for B/R's Joel Reuter, that's not the worst idea. And there's probably more to be gained from Seiya Suzuki and Christopher Morel. The former was clicking with a .938 OPS in the second half of 2023, while the latter needed only 107 games to match Bellinger's 26 homers.

Otherwise, the Cubs are due some good luck in 2024 after underperforming their Pythagorean record by seven wins in 2023. If ever there was a guy who could make sure they collect, it's new manager Craig Counsell.

Verdict: Lean sell

This Is According to: Both Baseball Prospectus, which has the St. Louis Cardinals going 85-77, and FanGraphs, which has them going 83-79.

The Cardinals were also favored to win the NL Central last year, so anyone whose mind is going to the ol' "Fool me once..." well isn't necessarily misguided.

To their credit, though, the Cardinals clearly learned a valuable lesson from last year. And that is: When you need to fortify your starting pitching, you'd better do so.

Whereas the rotation St. Louis took into last season was never not a volatile mix, this year's iteration has a new ace in Sonny Gray and two new innings-eaters in Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. These two plus Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz isn't necessarily an elite fivesome, but it is one that should substantially improve on last year's 5.08 ERA.

It'll otherwise be surprising if the Cardinals only rank 10th in the NL in scoring again. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are both candidates for rebound seasons, while youngsters Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman and rookie shortstop Masyn Winn are breakout candidates.

If nothing else, those pitching additions alone make the Cardinals the most improved team in the NL Central. As none of the other four teams has improved quite as much, they might simply win the division by default.

Verdict: Lean buy

This Is According to: Baseball Prospectus, which gives the New York Mets a 48.4 percent chance of making the postseason.

FanGraphs isn't as bullish on the Mets after their 75-87 season, assigning them only a 30.1 percent chance of playing in October.

Some level of skepticism is warranted, as the Mets have generally been treating playing October baseball this season as more of a nice-to-have. They did follow last summer's trade deadline sell-off by signing 10 free agents to major league deals, but only Sean Manaea got more than a one-year guarantee.

On the plus side, New York's Pete Alonso- and Francisco Lindor-led lineup could be special if Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte both bounce back and if Francisco Álvarez and Brett Baty realize their breakout potential. In this event, they'll finish a lot higher than 11th in the NL in runs.

There are more questions on the pitching side, but not when it comes to the bullpen. It consists of four free-agent signings and one major injury return by way of Edwin Díaz, who had a 1.31 ERA and a 50.2 K percentage when he last pitched in 2022, coming back from a torn ACL.

Besides, where will the NL's three wild cards come from this year? It's easy to count on one each from the NL East and NL West, but there are no clear-cut candidates for the third. The Mets ending up in the race for it should surprise nobody.

Verdict: Buy

This Is According to: Both Baseball Prospectus, which projects the Arizona Diamondbacks to go 86-76, and FanGraphs, which projects them to go 83-79.

The Diamondbacks are the best candidate to nab the aforementioned wild-card spot from the NL West, but the implication here is that they'll basically stay in their lane this year.

And it's a bit odd, no?

Though the D-backs did only go 84-78 last year, that they salvaged so many wins despite a 7-25 stretch that spanned July 2 and Aug. 11 should be seen as a feat. And speaking of feats, remember when they made it to the World Series? That was something, alright.

The Snakes are now coming into 2024 as a more complete team. Eduardo Rodriguez is the No. 3 starter they never really had in 2023. For their parts, Eugenio Suárez and Joc Pederson should upgrade third base and DH slots that produced OPSes of .644 and .678 last year.

And while Arizona doesn't quite need more power from Corbin Carroll, he might have more to give anyway. Of the 25 jacks he hit last year, 21 came in his first 95 games before he seemed to run out of gas. Hopefully, he'll have a larger tank as a sophomore.

Verdict: Sell

This Is According to: Both Baseball Prospectus, which has the Baltimore Orioles going 86-76, and FanGraphs, which has them going 85-77.

This would have been an easy sell as of Thursday morning, but then the world found out that Kyle Bradish has a right UCL sprain.

Bradish was Baltimore's best pitcher last season, posting a 2.83 ERA en route to finishing fourth in the American League Cy Young Award voting. He and newly acquired ace Corbin Burnes were supposed to form a lethal one-two punch, but whether that'll happen at all in 2024 is up in the air. UCL injuries are scary like that.

Things could look worse, of course. Grayson Rodriguez has No. 2 potential in his own right, and this offense should be capable of more after ranking fourth in the AL in scoring last year. To wit, No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday can ensure they get a harder punch from a shortstop spot that produced a .699 OPS.

Inevitably, though, one must confront that the Orioles likely overachieved in going 101-61 last year. And in addition to Bradish for at least the start of 2024, they won't have ace closer Félix Bautista for the whole season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery.

All this would only amount to so much negativity if the O's played in a weak division, but the AL East is the strongest in either league. A third-place finish isn't likely, per se, but it is within the realm of possibility.

Verdict: Lean buy

This Is According to: Both Baseball Prospectus, which has the New York Yankees going 94-68, and FanGraphs, which has them going 89-73.

Neither of these is an eye-popping projection, but they're certainly what Yankees fans want to see after the team finished fourth and barely salvaged a winning record at 82-80 last year.

And, yeah, it doesn't require an imaginative leap to see how this exact scenario will play out.

The Yankees lacked balance around Aaron Judge in their lineup last year, and now they have it after adding Juan Soto, who's kind of a big deal, and Alex Verdugo, who's no worse than a league-average outfielder. And if Carlos Rodón and Marcus Stroman stay healthy, Gerrit Cole will likewise have ample weight off his shoulders in the rotation.

Of course, it's just as easy to imagine the Yankees getting swallowed by so many pitfalls. They're primed to give regular at-bats to three post-prime stars in Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu. And regarding Rodón and Stroman, let's just say that "if" up there is doing some heavy lifting.

Further, the Yankees' actual odds of winning the AL East paint a picture of a coin flip. It's a 56.4 percent chance for Baseball Prospectus and a 37.5 percent chance for FanGraphs. Especially in context of how deep the division is, neither seems way off-base.

Verdict: Lean sell

This Is According to: Both Baseball Prospectus, which projects the Houston Astros to go 95-67, and FanGraphs, which projects them to go 90-72.

Where the two systems differ is in who they expect to finish second in the AL West, with Baseball Prospectus tabbing the Texas Rangers and FanGraphs favoring the Seattle Mariners. But either way, both spot Houston at least a five-game advantage.

The Astros did have the best offseason of the three. Whereas they added Josh Hader to an already dangerous relief corps, the Rangers have basically closed the door on Jordan Montgomery and the Mariners' gains (Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver) were offset by losses (Jarred Kelenic and Eugenio Suárez).

But lest anyone forget, the Astros barely won the AL West in 2023. It was a tiebreaker that decided the division title after they and the Rangers both finished 90-72, with the Mariners finishing just two games off pace at 88-74.

In the present day, the Astros are already reeling from Justin Verlander, who'll turn 41 on Tuesday, being behind schedule with a shoulder issue. It's an early blow to a rotation that didn't even finish in the top 20 for rWAR last season.

With Lance McCullers Jr., Luis García and Kendall Graveman all recovering from surgeries and Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier trying to improve on inconsistent 2023 seasons, the Astros are ill-equipped to absorb any more blows to their pitching staff. Unfortunately for them, such things are known to happen in this game.

Verdict: Sell

This Is According to: FanGraphs, which has the Los Angeles Dodgers going 90-72.

So, two things, starting with how FanGraphs isn't the only authority here. Baseball Prospectus projects the Dodgers to win 102 games, and that about aligns with their over/under of 103.5 wins at DraftKings.

Also, FanGraphs is somewhat conservative with its projections. One-hundred-win forecasts do happen, but they're rare. The last time it happened was for the 2021 Dodgers, and even that was only technically for 99.6 wins.

And yet the question lingers: Will a team with four MVPs and a projected $302 million payroll really fail to win even 95 games?

Two factors at least make it plausible. The first is that the Dodgers' lineup thins out on threats after Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani. The second, bigger one is the prospect of a pitching breakdown. The amount of sheer stuff in the club's projected rotation is inversely proportional to the likely durability therewithin.

Still, any fewer than 100 wins is hard to fathom. The talent is there, but there's also the Dodgers' knack for squeezing wins out of the margins. It's a big reason they have a history of outperforming their preseason projections.

Verdict: Sell

This Is According to: FanGraphs, which gives Atlanta a 26.0 percent chance of winning the World Series.

To say that this is unusually high confidence on FanGraphs' part would be understating it. The site's records go as far back as 2016, and this is the first time it's had a preseason favorite with World Series odds this high.

The Dodgers might beg to differ, and Baseball Prospectus can back them up. They put the Dodgers' World Series chances at 19.3 percent, compared to 18.9 percent for Atlanta.

I would have agreed back in December after the Dodgers followed their $700 million splash on Shohei Ohtani with a $325 million splash on Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But even then it was close, and then a funny thing happened: Atlanta traded for Chris Sale.

He's not the pitcher he once was, but even this aging version of him still whiffed 11.0 batters per nine innings last season. He's frankly overqualified to be a No. 4 starter, just as fellow All-Star Bryce Elder is overqualified to be a No. 5 starter.

Yet that's the arrangement for Atlanta's rotation after Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton. And in case anyone still needs to be sold on this offense, Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley are about a match for the Betts-Freeman-Ohtani trio, and the six slots underneath them go deeper than what the Dodgers have.

Granted, I have a hard time going all-in on Atlanta being this much of a favorite. But it should indeed be the favorite.

Verdict: Lean buy

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.