Sleeper Rankings for the 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament

The only sleeper to make a multiple-weekend run in the 2024 men's NCAA tournament was North Carolina State crashing the Final Four as a No. 11 seed, but could this be one of those years where brackets around the country get destroyed by a bunch of upsets?

If so, who are the best candidates to deliver those stunners?

Before we dive in, let's note that while all Cinderellas are Sleepers, not all Sleepers are Cinderellas. For example, the 2016 Syracuse team that made the Final Four as a No. 10 seed, the 2021 UCLA team that made the Final Four as a No. 11 seed and the aforementioned NC State squad were all Sleepers, but they most certainly were not Cinderellas.

There will be at least one Cinderella included in this discussion, but all Sleepers are welcome, which is any team that reasonably could win multiple games in the NCAA tournament despite being currently projected for a No. 7 seed or worse in the Bracket Matrix.

Obviously, matchups are everything when it comes to the NCAA tournament, and we have no clue what sort of draw any of these teams will get—if they make the tournament at all. But teams are ranked in ascending order of how confident we are in saying they will win at least one game, regardless of the hand they are dealt by the selection committee.

Disclaimer: Though Connecticut is currently projected for a No. 8 seed, the twice-reigning national champions—who also won it all as a No. 7 seed in 2014—simply cannot be considered a sleeper and thus will not appear on this list. It's not because we don't think the Huskies could win it all this year. It's because we all already know it's a possibility.

Current Projected Seed: Out, but projected A-10 champion in about 40 percent of brackets

In what is the final season with roster construction substantially impacted by the COVID year of free eligibility, there are times you look out on the court and it's fully grown men playing against boys.

VCU is typically the former of the two, which could bode well in March.

The five leading scorers for the Rams are Joe Bamisile, Max Shulga, Phillip Russell, Zeb Jackson and Jack Clark. The first four are fifth-year seniors. Clark is a seventh-year senior, who made his collegiate debut with La Salle on Dec. 1, 2018—against a Villanova team that still had Eric Paschall and Phil Booth. He's been around for a bit.

All five of those guards share the sugar and get after it on defense, too, combining for around 12 assists and seven steals per game for what is a HAVOC-lite version of VCU—not quite leading the nation in turnovers forced like they used to a decade ago, but definitely still in the top 10 percent.

This year's Rams don't have any great wins to point to. In fact, it's more than a tad bit concerning that they are 17-5 despite playing just one game against the KenPom top 70. But they often just put their opposition in a meat locker, winning all 17 of those games by at least a three-possession margin.

They've got two games left against Dayton, plus a battle with George Mason in between. Those aren't marquee games, so to speak, but they are opportunities for the Rams to show us how dangerous they could be in the NCAA tournament.

Current Projected Seed: First Team Out

It's hard to believe that Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game.

Eight trips to the dance, eight first-round exits, including an immediate 15-point loss to Texas A&M in an 8/9 game one year ago. And this year's team probably isn't as good as last year's was.

However, if you're looking for one leader from a sleeper to ride or die with this March, you could do a whole lot worse than Nebraska's Brice Williams.

He did have 24 points in that game against the Aggies last year, but that A&M team was just a wrecking ball that peaked at the right time, darn near knocking off No. 1 seed Houston in the following round, too.

And while Nebraska as a whole might not be better than last year, Williams certainly is.

After Herculean performances in recent wins over Illinois and Oregon, Williams has now scored at least 25 points on eight occasions this season. The sixth-year senior has developed into the type of assertive, late-blooming star that Kevin McCullar Jr. was for Kansas last year—before an injury derailed the season both for him and the Jayhawks.

Nebraska does allow three-pointers at an alarming rate, though. We're talking nearly 10 makes and close to 30 attempts allowed per game, in fact. And the one commonality in their five biggest wins is that the opposition shot below 29 percent from deep in each of those. That will be a gigantic thing to keep in mind when we know the matchups on Selection Sunday.

Current Projected Seed: No. 12

UC Irvine doesn't meet the *typical* criteria for a Cinderella team.

The Anteaters don't generate many turnovers. They're not likely to catch fire from three-point range. They didn't face a single top-50 opponent in the nonconference (nor in conference play).

Here's what they do have, though.

• An excellent defense that ranks top-10 on KenPom in efficiency
• A teamwide free-throw percentage of 80.7 percent, darn near good for best in the nation
• A do-it-all big man (Bent Leuchten) averaging 15.7 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.2 blocks per game who makes 54 percent of his infrequent three-point attempts, and
• A head coach who has been there for 15 years, leading them to a first-round upset of No. 4 seed Kansas State in 2019.

Also, what UCI lacks in marquee nonconference games, it pretty well made up for with a lot of decent challenges away from home. They played true road games against Loyola Marymount, Northern Iowa, Belmont and Cal Baptist, all of whom rank top 175 on KenPom, plus neutral games against Kennesaw State, Kent State and Towson, who also rank top 175. And they won all seven of those games.

It's a shame they took a 16-point loss at Duquesne and an overtime loss at UC Riverside. Hopefully that doesn't cost them an at-large bid (if they need one), because the Anteaters could be this year's version of that Loyola-Chicago squad that went to the Final Four in 2018.

Current Projected Seed: No. 10

There might not be a more "Whack-a-Mole" team in the country this season than these Ohio State Buckeyes.

They don't have any terrible resume losses, but they trailed by at least 40 points in each of the blowout losses to Maryland and Auburn. Moreover, their home losses in overtime against both Pittsburgh and Indiana are a gigantic reason why those teams are even still in the bubble conversation today. The Buckeyes do have a lot of losses in general, too, already saddled with nine of them with nine regular-season games still to come.

But then you've got the 20-point win over Kentucky, the road win over Purdue and a season-opening neutral-site victory over Texas that tell the story of a team that could be a serious problem in the tournament.

Curiously enough, rebounding margin—usually just about the worst possible stat to look at to figure out who won or should have won a game—has been one of the best indicators of whether Ohio State is going to win. When finishing plus-2 or better on the glass, the Buckeyes are 11-0; otherwise, 2-9.

Guess we'll see how generous the selection committee is feeling with the draw here?

If they immediately run into a team like Saint Mary's or Arizona who can just ruin your life on the glass, it figures to be a short stay in the dance. Give 'em games against the likes of Ole Miss, West Virginia or Oklahoma, though, and maybe the Buckeyes make it to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2013.

Current Projected Seed: Second Team Out

Do the Tar Heels belong in the tournament?

Not at the moment, no. They are 13-10 overall and have a damning 0-8 record against the top half of Quad 1. They did play one of the toughest nonconference schedules in the entire country, but that doesn't give them carte blanche to blow every single marquee opportunity they get and still go dancing.

At this point, though, an underachieving ACC team barely/controversially getting into the dance and then going on a run is just about an annual rite of passage.

NC State did it last year. Pitt snuck in and won two games the previous year. In 2022, No. 8 seed UNC, No. 10 seed Miami and No. 11 seed Notre Dame combined to win 10 tournament games. Syracuse won two games as a No. 11 seed in 2021, three games as a No. 11 seed in 2018 and made it to the 2016 Final Four as a No. 10 seed.

It just keeps happening.

Now, even under that premise, it doesn't have to be North Carolina. Could be Jaland Lowe and the Pitt Panthers or Hunter Sallis and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, both of whom are in better shape for a bid at this point in time. Maybe even SMU sneaks in and Boopie Miller ignites for a Mustangs team that finally beats some quality opponents for the first time this season.

UNC feels most likely, though, and not just because they're UNC.

We all know what RJ Davis is capable of doing, even though he was generally better last season than he has been this year. Seth Trimble is starting to shine again. Ian Jackson is playing like a lottery pick. Drake Powell is showing off his NBA potential, too.

Get at least two of those guys to show up in a big way while either Jalen Washington or Ven-Allen Lubin provides at least something in the paint and they've got a chance against just about anyone.

Current Projected Seed: No. 10

Here's a wild stat about the Longhorns that you might want to remember when filling out those brackets next month: The last time Texas pulled off a seeding upset in the NCAA tournament was in 2002, defeating No. 3 seed Mississippi State in the second round as a No. 6 seed.

Since then, the Longhorns are 0-9 when facing better-seeded teams...plus 10 losses in which they were the better-seeded team.

But.

None of those teams had Tre Johnson.

One of them did have Kevin Durant among a freshman class with four eventual NBA players and even that wasn't enough, but that's the NCAA tournament for you. USC completely shut down D.J. Augustin, was better equipped for a physical affair and that was that.

When Johnson and these Longhorns get on a heater, though, anything is possible.

Even on what was an off night for the freshman star, Texas hung with full strength Auburn, only losing that game by five. The Longhorns subsequently almost beat Tennessee, did win at Oklahoma and stormed back from a 22-point second-half deficit to upset Texas A&M.

This team is loaded with veterans, as more than half of its primary nine-man rotation is made up of fifth-year seniors; Johnson the only regular who isn't at least a junior. And with all that veteran leadership, this is a well-rounded, tough-nosed bunch that could punch above its weight class in the dance.

Current Projected Seed: No. 11

While Mark Pope has done a phenomenal job in his first season as the Kentucky head coach, his former team is soldiering on just fine without him.

It didn't much feel that way a few weeks ago, though, when BYU was 11-6 overall and still searching for its first quality win. But after reeling off four straight wins at Colorado, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Baylor and at UCF—shooting 48-for-101 (47.5 percent) from three-point range in the process—the Cougars now feel dangerous.

Part of the problem before they flipped the switch was that NBA-bound point forward Egor Demin missed three games in December and took about a month to get back into the swing of things. Now that he's doing his thing again while Richie Saunders has also been on fire, this is a scary team that can score pretty much at will.

How is their defensive three-point luck going to hold up in March, though?

Similar to aforementioned Nebraska, the Cougars allow a lot of open looks from the perimeter, pretty much by design, and they've had a few games spiral out of control because of that—most notably the loss to Providence in which the Friars shot 12-for-22 and won by 19.

It's a Catch-22 of sorts, because all the three-point shots on both ends of the floor are what makes them an intriguing candidate for a tournament run.

Around 46.5 percent of field-goal attempts (by both teams combined) in BYU games come from beyond the perimeter. The Cougars both make 37.5 percent of their own attempts and are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. As a result, when they shoot 34 percent or better, they are 13-1—the lone loss being a tight road game against TCU in which a negative-10 turnover margin was their undoing.

Current Projected Seed: No. 9

Gonzaga and its zero national championships in program history is certainly more of a sleeper candidate than six-time champion Connecticut.

But with 25 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances, including making it at least as far as the Sweet 16 in each of the last nine dances, the Zags aren't exactly sneaking up on anyone at this point. (Then again, neither is North Carolina, and we already included the Tar Heels.)

However, there is a growing concern over whether this team will even make the tournament this year, sitting at 5-7 against the top 2 Quads without a single legitimately marquee win to its credit.

The destruction of Baylor on opening night looked incredible at the time, but that's barely even a Quad 1 result now.

Let's save the bubble debate for another day, though, and assume for now that Gonzaga makes the cut.

Few offenses (no Mark Few pun intended) are more relentless than this one.

Ryan Nembhard is averaging 10 assists per game. Graham Ike is a wrecking ball in the post, averaging 32.1 points per 40 minutes. And when he comes out, in comes Braden Huff at 26.7 points per 40 minutes, for a center tandem playing 38.5 minutes per game and averaging 28.6 points and 10.7 rebounds. Khalif Battle and Nolan Hickman both have some Jekyll and Hyde in them, but this is a tough team to beat when either shooting guard shows up.

The question—as it always seems to be with Gonzaga—is the defense.

The Zags allowed 97 and 103 in back-to-back losses to Oregon State and Santa Clara last month. And in the overtime loss to Kentucky, it barely took Gonzaga three minutes to blow an 18-point second-half lead.

Rim protection is minimal at best, and no one other than Nembhard (1.7) is averaging better than a steal per game. That makes it terrifying to put the life of your bracket in Gonzaga's hands, because those great offense, mediocre defense teams rarely last long.

Guess what, though? Their defense this year is better than either of the past two years, in which they won a combined five tournament games.

Gonzaga's first miracle run back in 1999 came as a No. 10 seed. Maybe it could happen again.