5 Thoughts Ahead of NFL Super Bowl LIX
Super Bowl LIX is nearly here, and I have some thoughts.
Throughout the 2024 NFL season, I've been offering one per team on just about a weekly basis. Now, with just two teams and one game remaining before we dive into the 2025 season, I've got a little extra on both the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
Before Sunday's showdown in New Orleans, here's a high-level look at the Super Bowl from my perspective.
The Chiefs Could Become the Greatest Dynasty of All Time
The Super Bowl era has contained some pretty clear-cut dynasties.
The Steelers won four Super Bowls in a six-year span in the 1970s, the 49ers won four titles in a nine-year span in the 1980s, the Cowboys took home three Vince Lombardi Trophies in a four-year span in the 1990s, and the Patriots won six Super Bowls in an 18-year stretch earlier this century.
Having now appeared in five of the last six Super Bowls and seven consecutive AFC Championship Games, the Chiefs are almost certain to go down as a dynasty, even if they don't win on Sunday or ever again in the Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid era.
But now it's time to start looking at whether this could actually become the greatest dynasty of the modern era.
With a win Sunday, Kansas City would match Pittsburgh's "four in six" run from the 1970s while also becoming the first three-peat champion in Super Bowl history. Making the game despite losing to the Buccaneers in 2020 also counts for something, just as New England's three losing Super Bowl appearances under Tom Brady and Belichick do.
Belichick and Brady deserve a ton of recognition for sustaining their dynasty longer than anyone else, and there's a good chance that holds up beyond this Chiefs run. But a Chiefs win on Sunday would cement the team's run between 2018 and 2024 as the greatest dynasty in Super Bowl history.
A loss on Sunday complicates things slightly, but three Super Bowl wins, five Super Bowl appearances and seven conference title game appearances in a seven-year span would still keep Kansas City in the conversation with the four dynasties listed above, and Mahomes still hasn't turned 30.
You might have Chiefs fatigue at this point, but it's important to remind yourself you're witnessing history.
Mahomes' Legacy Could Surpass Montana, Putting Him in a League of Two
Sunday could also further cement the individual legacies belonging to Mahomes and Reid.
At the age of 29, Mahomes is already one of just three players with at least three rings, two regular-season MVPs and two Super Bowl MVPs. It's him (3, 2, 3) along with Tom Brady (7, 3, 5) and Joe Montana (4, 2, 3).
A win on Sunday would give Mahomes 4, 2, 4 (assuming he gets Super Bowl MVP as well), which definitely trumps Montana when you throw in his other Super Bowl appearance. And even with a loss, he's gotta be close to Montana.
The wild part, again, is how much time he should still have to chase down Brady. He might never reach seven Super Bowl wins, but there's a good chance he bests Brady in every other major category by the time all is said and done.
As for Reid, this is his sixth Super Bowl. He's coached in a ridiculous 12 conference championship games, he's won more playoff games than any coach not named Bill Belichick, and altogether he's the fourth-winningest head coach in NFL history.
With a win Sunday, Reid would become just the third coach ever to win four-plus Lombardis (joining Belichick and Chuck Noll). He'd also be just two playoff wins (29) behind Belichick (31) with only three (16) more losses (13). And if the Chiefs make the AFC title game one more time before Reid retires, he'll match Belichick with a record 13 conference championship appearances apiece.
His 6-6 record in those games is probably what will always hold him back in comparisons to Belichick, but the fact that he's made it that far in nearly half of his 26 seasons is remarkable.
He should go down as one of the top five coaches of the modern era, especially if his team takes care of business on Sunday.
Eagles Are Well-Positioned to Buck Super Bowl Rematch Trend
This is the ninth rematch in Super Bowl history, and only the second time in which a rematch has taken place within two years of the original matchup.
1. Dolphins over Washington in 1972 and then Washington over Dolphins in 1982
2. 49ers over Bengals in 1981 and then again in 1988
3. Cowboys over Bills in 1992 and then again in 1993
4. Steelers over Cowboys in 1978 and then Cowboys over Steelers in 1995
5. Giants over Patriots in 2007 and then again in 2011
6. Patriots over Eagles in 2004 and then Eagles over Patriots in 2017
7. Patriots over Rams in 2001 and then again in 2018
8. Chiefs over 49ers in 2019 and then again in 2023
Every time the rematch has occurred within seven years of the first meeting, the same team has won again.
That doesn't bode well for the Eagles, especially as not too much has changed in terms of key personnel. However, let's keep in mind how close Philadelphia played Kansas City two years ago, and now let's add Offensive Player of the Year favorite Saquon Barkley to the Eagles.
That alone could be enough to disregard the Super Bowl rematch curse that has plagued every team that has encountered it this century save for one—the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles.
Saquon Barkley Can Change the Tune on Running Back Value
"Running backs don't matter."
Saquon Barkley has stomped all over that mantra this season, with some help from Derrick Henry in Baltimore.
Henry has for years been a popular exception to that trendy rule, but the Titans and Ravens have never made a Super Bowl with Henry in a feature role.
The key to getting teams to truly start appreciating running backs again? We need to see one carry a team all the way to a Super Bowl win. An appearance is a nice start, but a win would make a much larger difference.
This is actually the second year in a row in which the league's first-team All-Pro running back has made the Super Bowl, as Christian McCaffrey did so with the 49ers in 2023. Of course, they lost. So did the the Rams when Todd Gurley was a first-team All-Pro in 2018, the Seahawks when Shaun Alexander was a first-team All-Pro in 2005, and the Rams when Marshall Faulk earned that honor in 2001.
That's right, a first-team All-Pro back hasn't won the Super Bowl this century. They're 0-for-42 since 2000, and 0-4 in Super Bowls.
But Barkley is something else. In these playoffs alone he's rushed for 442 yards and five touchdowns, three of which have come from 60-plus yards out. This could be his moment.
How Can One Seriously Pick Against the Chiefs?
But am I betting on that from Barkley? Hell no.
The Chiefs have been the NFL's inevitable team for far too long. In picking them to win last year's Super Bowl, this is what I wrote:
"I'm done. I can't pick against the Chiefs anymore. They had an off year? Doesn't seem to matter. The 49ers are the more talented team? Don't care. At this point, you just can't go against Mahomes and Andy Reid, especially with points in your back pocket. Chiefs win 24-21."
What's amazing is that this season was even more extreme in terms of the Chiefs having an off year and being the obvious pick despite having less overall talent than their opponent.
Barkley is the best player in this game, by a mile. Better than Mahomes, who since the start of 2023 ranks 20th among 33 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating and has thrown more interceptions than everyone but Baker Mayfield.
The Eagles have the better defense in almost every metric, more weapons on offense, a quarterback with a more diverse skill set, and the Tush Push.
But the Chiefs are the Chiefs. Mahomes is Mahomes and Reid is Reid. They've won 17 consecutive one-score games. And despite his struggles this year, Mahomes led a league-high five fourth-quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives. He's been essentially perfect when it matters, and it'll matter more than anything Sunday in New Orleans.