2024 MLB Free Agents: Predictions for Top Pitchers Set to Hit Open Market

Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani may be rewriting history books with their performances at the plate but baseball will always be won at the mound.

Quality pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen, is what separates contenders from World Series champions.

As the 2024 MLB season winds down, front offices around the league will turn their attention to free agency and the players who could help to ensure they have a legitimate opportunity to compete for a title.

Three of the top free-agent pitchers in this year's market include Baltimore ace Corbin Burnes, two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and dominant lefty closer Tanner Scott.

Ahead of a free-agent period that will likely be a frenzy, find out where each of those top available pitchers could find themselves and why with this preview.

Corbin Burnes pitched 189.1 innings, allowed his fewest earned runs and home runs since 2021 (62 and 21), and tallied a WAR of 3.2 in his first year as an Oriole in 2024.

Will it be his last? It could be.

The Orioles have a history of not paying free agents, so it stands to reason that Burnes would be no different. New owner David Rubenstein hasn't gone out of his way to say it will, either.

"Money doesn't always mean you're going to have the best team, the best players, the best morale. It's a complicated mixture of things that have to come together," he told Childs Walker of the Baltimore Sun.

Add that to the fact that the Orioles have not signed a single free agent to a multi-year deal under general manager Mike Elias since 2018, and you have every reason to believe there is no chance Burnes returns to Charm City in 2025.

The 2021 Cy Young Award winner has been such an effective fit with the organization that barring a monster offer, it would be difficult to imagine the new owner and the GM allowing Burnes to walk.

Maybe Steve Cohen of the Mets comes through with a major offer that is too good to pass up and impossible for the Orioles to match given the plethora of young talent that will all be due significant paydays in the years to come.

If that does not happen, though, or Baltimore can front-load the deal so that it can address Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Colton, Cowser, Jordan Westburg and others later, Burnes staying put seems the likeliest outcome at this point.

Prediction: Burnes stays put with the Orioles

Blake Snell had a rough start to his season and then ended up on the IL, creating doubts about whether the San Francisco Giants would ever see the Cy Young Award winner.

Beginning with his return from injury in early July, Snell proved he was as advertised.

In 20 games, the nine-year veteran tallied a 5-3 win-loss record with 145 strikeouts in 104 innings, an ERA of 3.12, and a WAR of 2.1.

The resiliency he showed in overcoming his poor start to the season and returning from injury to compile another relatively strong season will endear the 31-year-old to teams seeking an ace this offseason.

The Mets, Cubs and Dodgers are among the teams that will seek pitching help this offseason, and any of the three would become better instantly with him in the rotation. It is not a given that he leaves San Francisco, though.

Yes, he is likely to opt out of his deal and enter free agency, but both sides expected as much when they inked a contract for 2024. The Giants are not typically a team that commits long-term deals to pitchers, but the prospects of bringing Snell back and having his one-two punch with Logan Webb is appealing.

That the organization was willing to sign Snell when he struggled to find a suitor for his price range last offseason may play in its favor, but it will have to fend off countless suitors to ensure a reunion next season.

Prediction: Snell moves on, with the Mets worth keeping an eye on

Tanner Scott has appeared in 71 games for the Marlins and Padres this season, with a win-loss record of 9-5. His 1.51 ERA is the second-lowest of his career next to the 1.31 he garnered in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

His 22 saves are the most of his career.

Scott was the bright spot on an otherwise bad Marlins squad and was instrumental in helping the Padres go on a run that earned them a spot in the National League playoffs. Now, he figures to be a highly sought-after reliever in a league that needs as many quality bullpen pitchers as possible.

While the Padres could always make a play to keep, arguably, the best left-handed closer in the NL, the team also has to decide on Ha-Seong Kim, who has a mutual option at play in his contract.

That makes Scott the more likely of the two to depart. But if so, where to?

When the Padres dealt for Scott at the trade deadline, Ken Rosenthal reported the Yankees, Orioles, Royals and Phillies all expressed interest in signing him.

All four of those teams, playoff contenders this year, should remain in contention for him this offseason. The Phillies have the strongest bullpen of the bunch, and Scott spent the first five seasons of his career in Baltimore.

The Yankees are always a threat to sign a major free agent, but team officials will have their focus on re-signing Juan Soto, which may cost them an opportunity to solidify their bullpen.

That leaves the Royals who, with great veteran leadership from Salvador Perez and one of the best young players in the game in Bobby Witt Jr., will attract more high-profile free agents than the team has in years.

They should be considered a dark horse to attract Scott.

Prediction: Scott signs with the Royals or lands in Philly in a bit of a shocker