UFC Fight Night 251: Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues B/R Staff Predictions

At this point, UFC Apex is like a second home for Jared Cannonier. The Alaskan middleweight has fought three of his last four fights in the compact Las Vegas venue, and he will return there on Saturday to take on rising contender Gregory Rodrigues.

It's a make-or-break fight for Cannonier.

"The Killa Gorilla" is riding back-to-back losses at the moment, having first suffered a TKO defeat at the hands of Nassourdine Imavov, and then a decision loss to another top contender in Caio Borralho.

A third loss is unlikely to mean the end of Cannonier's MMA career, or even the end of his time in the UFC, but it will most likely signal the end of his time as a relevant contender at 185 pounds.

And a third loss is a real possibility. While the 40-year-old has been a top-10 middleweight for years, and fought Israel Adesanya for the title in 2022, Rodrigues has a ton of momentum behind him.

"Robocop," who is the first unranked fighter Cannonier has fought in years, has won three straight, first stopping Denis Tiuliulin and Brad Tavares with strikes, then beating Christian Leroy Duncan by decision.

If he wins a fourth straight fight this Saturday, it will change his career completely—just as a loss will for Cannonier.

Here's how the B/R combat sports squad sees Saturday's middleweight main event playing out.

Haris Kruskic: Far be it from me to doubt Cannonier. He's nearly 41 years old, fought in three different weight classes and has done quite well during his time at middleweight.

I'm just not sold on Rodrigues being a better overall fighter than Cannonier. Yes, he's eight years younger and on a three-fight win streak, but he's also looked quite bad against Brunno Ferreira and Armen Petrosyan who aren't as good as Cannonier.

Plus, Rodrigues' level of competition during this current win streak is average at best.

I would almost never pick against Father Time, but "Killa Gorilla" gets one more win here.

Prediction: Cannonier by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: I really have no idea what to expect from Cannonier this weekend.

On the one hand, he's now in his 40s, and he's lost two in a row. On the other hand, those losses came against two guys who now rank among the top contenders in the middleweight division.

Those losses were also preceded by wins over Marvin Vettori and Sean Strickland—the latter of whom just contended for the title. 

Were the losses to Borralho and Imavov an indication that Cannonier is suddenly falling off? Or did he simply come up short to two of the best fighters in the division? These are the questions that have been banging around my head since I first started thinking about this fight, and I still don't know the answers. 

That being said, I'm inclined to agree with Haris. Even if Cannonier is on the downslide, he's probably still good enough to beat guys outside the top 10, and Rodrigues isn't even in the top 15. In fact, he's the lowest-ranked guy Cannonier has fought in ages.

Maybe the former title challenger is on the way out, but he should still be able to pass this test, especially given Rodrigues is new to five-rounders.  

Prediction: Cannonier by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: With names like “Killa Gorilla” and “Robocop,” you’d think this would be a middleweight title fight rather than a battle between two guys trying to validate spots on the second tier.

But here we are.

And because neither guy is obviously on the level of a world champion, it makes it particularly difficult to discern much between them.

Cannonier is no world-beater, but he did have relatively recent wins over the likes of Vettori and Strickland before the subsequent two-fight skid against Imavov and Borralho—fighting better than 18 complete rounds while doing so.

Meanwhile, Rodrigues comes in with the momentum of three consecutive wins and five in six fights, but precisely none of them have come against fighters remotely close to the ones with whom Cannonier has competed.

In fact, the most memorable moment of the Brazilian’s recent run was the one-punch KO he suffered via the left fist of Ferreira.

Ferreira has gone just 2-2 against moderate fare since, further illustrating the vast gap between what Saturday’s combatants have been in against.

Is it possible Cannonier will wake up Saturday and resemble a typical 40-year-old combat sports athlete? Sure. But it seems far more likely his consistent proximity to competitive superiority will be enough to pass what in reality is an open-book test compared to what he’s used to. 

Prediction: Cannonier by TKO, Rd. 3  

Nick Akerman: I think an average Cannonier has enough to beat Rodrigues at his best. I also think that’s exactly what we will see in this fight. It feels like this one could signal the beginning of the end for the loser.

How much would Cannonier have left in the tank at his age and coming off three losses? Rodrigues needs a big name on his resume—a statement—and he would be set back multiple fights if he loses this one. Both are difficult places to be when you consider this division has the quality to move on in a flash.

I’m a sucker for picking younger fighters with something to prove but I just can’t see it here, even though I do think it’ll be reasonably close. Rodrigues isn’t exactly a hard person to hit, and if Cannonier keeps it tight and throws at his usual rate, he’ll chip away handily at his opponent. 

It’s a big moment for these guys, even if it’s not the most exciting booking, but I’m picking Cannonier to show there’s still life in his career.

Prediction: Cannonier by split decision.