UFC 313: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions

Alex Pereira has evolved into one of the biggest stars in MMA, and at UFC 313 in Las Vegas on Saturday, he'll face an opponent who some consider his toughest to test to date.

His challenger this time around will be surging Russian contender Magomed Ankalaev, who backs up a potent striking game with the kind of grappling that many fans and experts suspect could cause huge problems for the champion.

Before we get to the card's headline fight, fans will also be treated to an appetizing lightweight clash, with former interim champ Justin Gaethje taking on Rafael Fiziev.

It will be a short-notice rematch of an early-2023 fight that Gaethje won by decision, which came together after the American's original opponent, Dan Hooker, was forced off the UFC 313 card with a hand injury.

While the top two fights on the bill will dominate most of the headlines ahead of Saturday, the rest of the card looks pretty good too, featuring a lightweight clash between Jalin Turner and Ignacio Bahamondes, a strawweight scrap between Amanda Lemos and Iasmin Lucindo, and yet another lightweight fight pitting King Green against Mauricio Ruffy.

Here's how the B/R combat sports squad sees the action unfolding in Las Vegas on Saturday night.

Haris Kruskic: This is an intriguing matchup for Alex Pereira.

Magomed Ankalaev is often labeled a wrestler despite preferring to stay on his feet. He does occasionally bring out some grappling, but that's not his bread and butter. 

My biggest issue with Ankalaev is he's sometimes too patient, leading to drawn-out fights against opponents who are hesitant to exchange with him. Exchanging is simply not a concern for Pereira. In fact, he welcomes it. Can Ankalaev handle a heat he hasn't felt yet? 

My guess is no. “Poatan” makes him pay for his passiveness. 

Prediction: Pereira by TKO, Rd. 4 

Tom Taylor: I feel the same way as pretty much everybody else about this matchup. While Ankalaev's wrestling is definitely being overrated heading into his long-awaited title shot, there is no question he has better grappling than pretty much anybody Pereira has fought to date.

Based on that, the outcome of this fight probably comes down to whether Ankalaev decides to wrestle, and how prepared Pereira is for that possibility.

I actually believe there was some merit to Ankalaev’s criticism that Pereira has spent a little too much time travelling and mingling with other celebrities heading into this fight, but I also believe the champ knows what he's up against and has mapped out a path to victory.

I suspect he will look to punish Ankalaev’s legs with kicks early, and finish him with punches once his mobility is compromised. The Russian could disrupt that strategy with his wrestling and is also capable of knocking Pereira out on the feet, but I'm inclined to side with the champ on this one. 

It may be a little more difficult than he's used to, but he'll eventually add another stoppage to his highlight reel. 

Prediction: Pereira by TKO, Rd. 3

Nick Akerman: It's hard to add much to the other predictions here; my colleagues have summed it up brilliantly and I see the merit in what they say.

Like Haris, my big worry for Ankalaev is not pushing the pace against a man who is used to controlling the flow of fights, even when it looks like he's plodding a little.

I expect Ankalaev to try to do some damage on the feet early. Either way, he's against a man who usually has an answer to most problems. Ankalaev isn't used to facing this level of striking, and I've got a feeling he gets caught before he properly has time to settle.

Prediction: Pereira by TKO, Rd. 1.

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Every now and then, the contrarian in me just has to get out. And this is one of those times.

Though I agree with everyone who says Pereira is a striker on a level to which few in the UFC’s history have ever ascended, there’s a voice in me suggesting it’s high time for a fall.

It’s not the same situation by any means, but it’s a voice similar to the one before old pal Israel Adesanya’s fight a few weeks back. He’s favored. He should win. But this may not be the right time for this sort of opponent.

Ankalaev has beaten everyone they’ve put in front of him for the last six years and, while he’s not nearly the grappler his Dagestani pedigree might have you believe, he does combine striking and mat work to form a lethal combination. 

Maybe he’ll make Poatan uncomfortable enough to be in a position to land a fight-changing shot, or maybe he’ll be durable enough to grind him for five rounds. Either way, it’s “and new” at night’s end.

Prediction: Ankalaev by TKO, Round 4

Haris Kruskic: Hats off to Rafael Fiziev for immediately jumping into a firefight with Justin Gaethje 18 months after tearing his ACL. It takes a special breed of fighter to take that kind of risk. 

I can't imagine that level of rust will go well for him, though. Gaethje will be motivated after his fight-of-the-year candidate against Max Holloway last year and gets back in the win column. 

Prediction: Gaethje by unanimous decision 

Tom Taylor: It's possible this rematch with Rafael Fiziev is a tougher matchup for Justin Gaethje than Dan Hooker was.

Fiziev gave Gaethje a very tough challenge the first time they met, and while he steps into this sequel on short notice, he is seemingly catching his rival at an ideal time: Less than a year removed from a brutal knockout loss to Holloway. 

To me, this one comes down to how well Gaethje has recovered from that Holloway loss, and how much he can still rely on his legendary durability in a slugfest. I kind of hope I'm wrong, but durability tends to go pretty quickly in this sport, and I think we'll see more evidence of that on Saturday.

Fiziev will catch him with something—maybe a head kick—and the gradual changing of the guard we've been seeing at lightweight will continue. 

Prediction: Fiziev by TKO, Rd. 2

Nick Akerman: I'm not ready to give up on Gaethje. I'm sure there are a lot of people who think Fiziev will get the win, possibly even early, but I'm not quite ready to acknowledge that one of MMA's most entertaining brawlers is moving towards the end. 

Both guys deserve huge respect for taking this fight on. Gaethje was training for the taller man in Dan Hooker, but I don't think he'll be too perturbed by Fiziev stepping in.

From Fiziev's point of view, he's chosen to step into a dogfight upon returning from that serious injury. That's a huge risk and incredibly gutsy. 

Even so, I've got one more Gaethje pick in me. But no more after that. Probably.

Prediction: Gaethje by majority decision.

Lyle Fitzsimmons: For a guy who likes to pick fights based on the career momentum of the combatants, this one doesn’t offer a lot of indication on which way to lean.

Perhaps the most memorable sequence of Gaethje’s career came in his last fight, when he was knocked out cold. And Fiziev not only has lost two straight–including one to Gaethje himself–but he blew out a knee in the next one and hasn’t fought since 2023.

So we’ll do the prognostication equivalent of tossing a coin.

Fiziev is younger, has significantly fewer hard miles on the odometer, and, as a clincher, I just realized we share a March 5 birthday. Good enough for me.

Prediction: Fiziev by split decision

Haris Kruskic: I'm going with a straightforward win for Jalin Turner here. Ignacio Bahamondes has been exposed on the ground by the likes of L'udovít Klein in the past, and Turner possesses enough grappling acumen to take him down and stifle his flashy striking in route to a much-needed finish. 

Prediction: Turner by TKO, Rd. 2 

Tom Taylor: I think Haris summed this one up pretty well with his prediction. If it stays on the feet, it's anyone’s fight, but allowing that to happen seems an obvious blunder on Turner's part, given what we know about Bahamondes' grappling.

My crystal ball shows Turner taking this one to the ground, and scoring the fourth submission victory of his 13-fight UFC career—probably in short order.

Prediction: Turner by submission, Rd. 1

Nick Akerman: I agree with Haris and Tom on Turner's route to victory, but I'm not sure he'll get there. He will want to end this quickly as possible after a couple of really gruelling losses in the last two years. Bahamondes has excellent timing and will be ready for Turner to try to remove his threat on the feet. 

I think the flashy Chilean will catch Turner before he gets pulled into trouble and continue the momentum built from his last two knockouts. It's pressure time for Turner, who needs a win.

Prediction: Bahamondes TKO, Rd. 2.

Lyle Fitzsimmons: I’m not seeing as much to discern in this one as the other guys.

Though I concede Bahamondes is on a nice little 5-1 run with two straight early finishes, I look at Turner and see a guy who’s been in there with significantly better competition lately even though the W’s and L’s haven’t been going his way.

He’s just as tall, just as long, equally close to his athletic prime, and has more ways to get a fight over with, given his 10 KOs and four submissions.

I say he gets the Chilean into a difficult spot and gets the finish.

Prediction: Turner by submission, Round 2  

Haris Kruskic: This is a toss-up. History will tell you to pick Iasmin Lucindo who is 14 years younger than Amanda Lemos, but I'm not sold on the 23-year-old quite yet. This feels like a trap fight against a veteran who's gone up against the best in the world and sometimes even won. 

Prediction: Lemos by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: It would certainly be a good thing for the strawweight division if Lucindo won this fight, as champion Zhang Weili is starting to run low on contenders.

Her recent win over Marina Rodriguez suggests she should be able to pull it off, but she will need to be very careful, as Lemos has far more stopping power than Rodriguez. 

I won't be shocked if this turns into the trap fight Haris mentioned, but I do think Lucindo will be able to stay out of trouble and put herself into title contention with a win over a much older opponent this Saturday—maybe by way of finish, but probably with a decision. 

Prediction: Lucindo by unanimous decision

Nick Akerman: Ah, one of those fights where the prize may well be getting your block knocked off by a champion who has cleared the division. 

I like Lucindo in this one, although she can't afford to let Lemos find any sort of rhythm. Lucindo is on a four-fight win streak, and quite often we slowly but surely see underwhelming fighters improve when they manage this type of run.

It might not be explosive and obvious, but I think she is progressing well and learning what it means to face dangerous opposition on a consistent basis.

I’ll go with Lucindo adding another win to her resume ahead of tougher times.

Prediction: Lucindo by unanimous decision.

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Here’s where my tiebreaker clause comes in.

If they’re the same size, are in the same weight class, fight with something resembling the same style and even share a Brazilian homeland, it’s simple.

Take the one who’s 14 years younger.

It’s a bonus that Lucindo has proven herself with four straight wins. I say she makes it five, whether she’ll actually want the title shot down the line or not.

Prediction: Lucindo by unanimous decision

Haris Kruskic: We don't have to think too hard on this. King Green is going up against a buzzsaw in Mauricio Ruffy.

Although Ruffy's decision win over the recently released James Llontop was underwhelming, that gives me even more confidence in him and his red-hot Fighting Nerds gym to put the pieces together against an aging veteran. 

Prediction: Ruffy by KO, Rd. 1

Tom Taylor: This is a fantastic matchup between two guys with great striking and solid footwork and head movement.

The key factor for me is that Ruffy has a much higher knockout rate than Green—91 per cent to 34 per cent—and is also a decade younger. 

In a fight between two fighters with similar strengths, it's usually a safe bet to side with the younger, stronger party. 

Prediction: Ruffy by KO, Rd. 1

Nick Akerman: This doesn’t feel like a good fight for Green. 

Facing a brutal striker like Ruffy on the back of a loss where he failed to deal with Paddy Pimblett doesn't seem like a good idea. It seems even worse when you consider Jim Miller and Tony Ferguson, two guys who do not possess Ruffy's ruthlessness, have sent him to the canvas in the last two years.

Green's probably getting a little disrespect heading into this one, but it's hard to pick against Ruffy. Like Tom suggests, they’ve got similar strengths.

The deciding factor is Ruffy's on the up and Green's heading towards the end of his career.

Prediction: Ruffy by TKO, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: It seems the pendulum has swung, perhaps permanently, for King Green.

His wins lately have come over guys even older and more shopworn than him, and his first-round blowout against Paddy Pimblett seven months ago was bad optics for anyone suggesting otherwise.

Meanwhile, he’s in here with a younger guy who’s accurate with his shot, has won two straight under the official UFC banner and comes from one of the hottest gyms in the sport.

That’s doesn't translate well in any language.

Prediction: Ruffy by TKO, Round 1