Every MLB Team's Biggest X-Factor Heading Into 2025 Season

On any given MLB roster are players the team knows it can rely on, as well as those who the team knows better than to rely on.

Then there are the guys in the middle. They're the X-factors, and every team has at least one of them for the 2025 season.

We've picked out the single biggest X-factor for all 30 teams. All of them are ticketed to play important roles, but whether they'll live up to the pressure or wilt under it is something only time will tell.

We'll go in alphabetical order and check teams off three at a time.

Arizona Diamondbacks: LHP A.J. Puk

After enduring a rough year in 2024, Arizona's starting rotation looks much better (hint: Corbin Burnes) heading into 2025. Alas, the same cannot be said of a bullpen that blew 26 saves against 38 successful conversions last year.

As the potential favorite for the closer role, this is where Puk could make a difference if he carries over his electric performance (1.32 ERA, 8.6 K/BB) for the Snakes from last year. The lefty does have some injuries in his past, however, and his dominance has been known to fluctuate.

Athletics: LHP Jeffrey Springs

The Athletics' entire rotation is an X-factor, including $67 million signee Luis Severino at the top. But at least he's a relatively known quantity, whereas Springs is something of a curiosity.

The Rays extended the lefty in January 2023 after he had been an out-of-nowhere success story in 2022, but then he needed Tommy John surgery soon after. By trading for him in December, the A's signaled some faith that his strong return in 2024 (7 GS, 3.27 ERA) is something he can build on.

Atlanta Braves: RHP Ian Anderson

Though he's still only 26, Anderson's name feels like a blast from the past. He last pitched for the Braves in 2022, having missed the last two years due to a rocky recovery from Tommy John surgery.

Anderson has nonetheless looked good this spring, allowing one earned run over eight innings so far. Sans Max Fried and Charlie Morton in their rotation, the Braves need more of that for their rotation to avoid a setback in 2025.

Baltimore Orioles: RHP Grayson Rodriguez

For the record, I chose Rodriguez for this spot even after he struggled with his velocity on Wednesday and was ultimately revealed to soreness near his elbow, which will sideline him for the start of 2025. So, yeah, really chancing it with this one.

My rationale, though, is that Baltimore doesn't have another in-house starter with No. 1 upside comparable to that of the now-departed Burnes. A healthy Rodriguez is their only halfway-decent bet in this regard, so they'd better cross their fingers.

Boston Red Sox: SS Trevor Story

Story has played only 163 games for the Red Sox in three years, and it has especially been a struggle to account for his absence at short in the last two. And while Marcelo Mayer is the team's shortstop of the future, he's not ready quite yet.

Story has a 1.405 OPS for the spring, with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow singing his praises to Jim Bowden of The Athletic. This guarantees nothing, but it'll do for a sign of hope.

Chicago Cubs: CF Pete Crow-Armstrong

In the field and on the basepaths, Crow-Armstrong is already one of the most exciting players in Major League Baseball. Suffice it to say that it is a highlight any time he takes off running.

The question after he posted a .670 OPS in the majors in 2024 is whether PCA will hit, but he's showing excellent form with a 1.587 OPS for the spring. If he builds on that, he can be for the NL in 2025 what Jarren Duran was for the AL in 2024.

Chicago White Sox: CF Luis Robert Jr.

Sorry if any bubbles are about to burst, but the White Sox are not going contend this year. This season will be about further building up the farm system, for which it would help if the club could cash in Robert for a big haul of prospects.

They weren't able to this winter, and the struggle may continue if he fails to recover from a career-worst season in 2024. That could even mean the end of the line for him in Chicago, as the guaranteed portion of his contract is up after this season.

Cincinnati Reds: RHP Brady Singer

Whereas Singer was one of four starters who took the hill 29-plus times for the Kansas City Royals in 2024, not one Red hit that mark. They thus need him to be a stabilizing force as a No. 2 behind staff ace Hunter Greene.

There are some headwinds here. Singer has been an inconsistent performer as a major leaguer, and he's moving from a pitcher-friendly stadium to one of the worst death traps for pitchers in all of MLB. The Reds simply need him to overcome these.

Cleveland Guardians: DH Kyle Manzardo

The Guardians shipped off 31 home runs and 108 RBI when they traded Josh Naylor to Arizona in December. Carlos Santana will account for some of that lost production, but the Guardians need Manzardo to help out.

He only had a .703 OPS in 53 games last season, yet he slugged .548 with 20 homers at the Triple-A level. That bodes well, and it never hurts when a guy has confidence in himself to do "serious damage."

Colorado Rockies: RF Jordan Beck

The Rockies are not going to be competitive this year, but Denver denizens will at least have an exciting core of 20-somethings to watch if Beck comes through with a breakout season in 2025.

This will require improving on the .521 OPS he posted for the Rockies last year, whereas he had a .935 OPS in the minors before getting the call. For what it's worth, he's been heating up in spring training after getting off to a cool start.

Detroit Tigers: DH Kerry Carpenter

The Tigers did not have a good offense in 2025, and it's only marginally better with Gleyber Torres aboard at second base. Improvement will mostly have to come from within, which is where a healthy Carpenter could lead the way.

When healthy, he's been 35 percent better than average in three seasons. Yet he's too often been on the sidelines, notably missing about half of last year with a back injury. He's healthy so far this spring, but even saying as much feels like a jinx.

Houston Astros: 2B Mauricio Dubón (or whoever plays 2B, really)

Jose Altuve as a left fielder came out of, well, left field. Yet it's a feasible enough plan, and the Astros frankly need it to be. If he has it his way, manager Joe Espada won't be moving Altuve back and forth between positions.

They therefore need someone to solidify the keystone, and that someone seems to be Dubón by default. The Gold Glover should be up to it defensively, but he'll need to hit more like he did in 2023 (.720 OPS) than in 2024 (.657 OPS).

Kansas City Royals: LF/2B Jonathan India

Singer and India were traded for each other, so this pick is good for symmetry if nothing else. And India's energy is in the right place, as he's stoked to bat leadoff in front of Bobby Witt Jr. and generally do whatever is asked of him.

Yet the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year faces the challenge of adapting to at least part-time duty in the outfield, as well as a whole new ballpark. Kauffman Stadium is not as forgiving as Great American Ball Park, where India's OPS was 87 points higher than it was on the road while he was a Red.

Los Angeles Angels: CF Jo Adell

With Mike Trout moving to right field, Adell seems to be the guy to take his place in center field. It's unusual territory for the 25-year-old former top prospect, as he's started only 15 games in center in parts of five MLB seasons.

There is otherwise the question of whether Adell can ascend above last year's .682 OPS and 20 homers. The raw talent is there, but he'll be a non-tender candidate this winter if he comes through with another disappointing season.

Los Angeles Dodgers: 2B Hyeseong Kim

Of all the stars the Dodgers added this past winter, Kim is the one who sort of has to work out. If he doesn't, they'll be wanting the Gavin Lux trade back and could even rethink their plan for Mookie Betts to be their everyday shortstop.

Though Kim was a .304 hitter in Korea, he's batting just .160 thus far in spring training. Probably meaningless, to be sure, but it obviously would have been more encouraging if he'd hit the ground running.

Miami Marlins: RHP Sandy Alcantara

As with the White Sox, the Marlins' 2025 season will be less about contending and more about loading up for the future. And in their case, it already looks like Alcantara's trade value is set to skyrocket. He's been filthy this spring.

The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner is going to be on an innings limit, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. That makes sense after he missed 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but what remains to be seen is if there's a Garrett Crochet-like stalemate if and when it comes time for Miami to move Alcantara.

Milwaukee Brewers: SS Joey Ortiz

Willy Adames was a star-caliber mainstay at shortstop for three-and-a-half years in Milwaukee, but he's in San Francisco now. This equals a chance for Ortiz to show what he can do at short, but the question is how his bat will play.

Said bat was modestly productive in 2024, producing a .726 OPS and 11 homers. Ortiz has nonetheless looked good in posting a .941 OPS this spring, which ought to have Milwaukee hoping that Gold Glove winner Brice Turang can stay at second.

Minnesota Twins: 3B Royce Lewis

Lewis has been on quite the journey over the past year or so. He was a postseason hero in 2023 and was hot at times in 2024. But he was also injured a bunch (update: water still wet) and was being eyed by the Twins for second base for a hot minute.

The keystone idea seems to have faded, effectively leaving Lewis in sort of "prove it" spot heading into 2025. He'll have done so if he stays healthy, plays solid D and avoids slumps. Basically, if he becomes a whole new player.

New York Mets: RHP Clay Holmes

Holmes as a starting pitcher is nothing if not a fun idea, and his expanded repertoire and sizzling spring training performance bode well for him pulling off the transition.

Yet because of injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas and Kodai Senga's own injury history, a successful transition for Holmes is suddenly more necessity than luxury. Suffice it to say that if it does happen, the Mets need to immediately raise pitching coach Jeremy Hefner's salary so he stays happy.

New York Yankees: LF Jasson Domínguez 

Though newcomers Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt were brought in to replace Juan Soto in the aggregate, Domínguez needs to be part of the equation as well. And "The Martian" will be if he lives up to his other-worldly tools.

Trouble is, Domínguez struggles to hit left-handers (.510 OPS in the minors last year) and has looked dreadful in left field so far this spring. He's only 22, but there's a sense of urgency for him to figure things out.

Philadelphia Phillies: LHP Jesús Luzardo

The Phillies' trade for Luzardo was perhaps the most overlooked move of the winter. He has top-of-the-rotation upside when he's healthy, so it's saying something that the Phillies figure to use him as a No. 5 starter.

Health and consistency are nonetheless two things that have dogged Luzardo throughout his career. If either or both things bite him again in 2025, the Phillies may have to un-banish Taijuan Walker from their bullpen.

Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP David Bednar

If the Pirates are going to contend this season, it will be on the strength of their pitching staff. Yet even if Paul Skenes and friends do their job in the rotation, the Bucs simply can't suffer a repeat of the 29 blown saves they had last year.

This will come down to Bednar, who blew as many saves in 2024 as he did in 2022 and 2023 combined. It's certainly a positive that he has looked primed for a rebound this spring, but it'll take more than that to erase last year's 5.77 ERA.

San Diego Padres: RHP Nick Pivetta

You have to hand it to the Padres for the fiendishly clever structure of Pivetta's four-year, $55 million deal. It technically pays $13.8 million per year, but his salary for 2024 is a mere $1 million.

Now the question is if Pivetta can fully harness his excellent stuff, in which case he'll be over-qualified as the Padres' No. 4 starter. Yet if he instead resembles the guy who's been eight percent below average for his career, not so much.

San Francisco Giants: LHP Robbie Ray

Things have not gone well for Ray since he won the AL Cy Young Award in 2021. He was a letdown in the first year of a five-year, $115 million contract in 2022, and Tommy John surgery has limited him to eight starts ever since then.

Ray has nonetheless looked terrific this spring, fanning nine over five scoreless innings. The Giants need more of that, as Ray is frankly a better bet to be a solid No. 2 behind Logan Webb than a 42-year-old Justin Verlander.

Seattle Mariners: LF Randy Arozarena

The Mariners were, somewhat famously, a lopsided team in 2024. And that may be likely to be the case once again in 2025, as the same excellent pitching staff is set to be backed by an offense that got no major new additions over the winter.

Few guys have the power to tip the balance like Arozarena. He had a rough one in 2024, including by way of a power outage (i.e., .377 SLG) upon arriving in Seattle. When he's at his best, though, he's a solid on-base guy in addition to a 20-20 threat.

St. Louis Cardinals: RF Jordan Walker

With Paul Goldschmidt gone and Nolan Arenado likely to follow at some point, the Cardinals need someone to be the new face of the franchise as it charts a new course for the future. And among the stay-a-while types, Walker is their best hope.

The 6'6", 250-pounder hasn't lived up to the hype he had as a prospect, but he's still only 22 and he seems to have developed a strong relationship with new hitting coach Brant Brown. Hopefully, he'll get out of sub-replacement-level territory.

Tampa Bay Rays: 3B Junior Caminero

Now, taking an obvious breakout candidate and calling him an "X-factor" might be construed as cheating. But in my defense, the Rays can't afford to have Caminero not break out after ranking 29th in scoring last season.

He's looked up for the challenge in homering three times with a 1.075 OPS this spring, but this is the same guy who hit only .246 with a .296 OBP in his first 50 games with the Rays. A wild card until proven otherwise, as it were.

Texas Rangers: RHP Chris Martin

The Rangers are going to hit this year. And especially if Jacob deGrom stays healthy, their starting pitching should be good as well. The bigger unknown is whether their bullpen makeover will yield results, particularly sans Kirby Yates at closer.

It seems for now like the job will fall to Martin, who is two years removed from a superb season marked by a 1.05 ERA. He'll be 39 on June 2, however, and he's coming off a year in which his average fastball dipped by 1 mph.

Toronto Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette

True, Bichette is a two-time All-Star. But he's also coming into 2025 off a bad run of injuries that extends to the second half of 2023. Overall, he has a .233 average and .625 OPS to show for his last 110 games.

The 27-year-old is healthy now, and that must remain the case for both the Blue Jays' sake and his own. They're not going to contend unless he's a force at the top of the lineup. Likewise, he won't get paid big bucks in free agency next winter if he can't pull it off.

Washington Nationals: RF Dylan Crews

Here we have yet another obvious breakout candidate. Heck, if you remove Rōki Sasaki from consideration, Crews takes his place as the best prospect in the entire National League for MLB.com.

He did only have a .641 OPS in 31 games for the Nats last season, however. He had also played just 135 games in the minors previously. It's his pure talent that makes him stand out, and the Nats will need it to blossom in order to avoid a fifth straight season of 90-plus losses.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.