Teams on Upset Alert on Day 3 of 2025 Men's March Madness

The 2025 NCAA tournament hasn't given us too many upsets. On Day 1, No. 12 McNeese State took down No. 5 Clemson, and No. 11 Drake upset No. 6 Missouri. 

It was another relatively quiet Friday, with No. 12 Colorado State upsetting No. 5 Memphis 78-70.   

But there is always room for upsets, and Saturday could have several. Here, we'll highlight four higher seeds that are in danger of being on upset alert on Day 3. We'll also include what makes the lower seeds so dangerous and how the higher-seeded teams can avoid a loss. 

Also included is the moneyline as of Friday night for each game via DraftKings.

Opponent: No. 12 McNeese State

Moneyline: Purdue (-245)

The McNeese State Cowboys delivered our first big upset of the tournament by beating No. 5 Clemson 69-67 in the first round. Purdue took care of No. 13 High Point 75-63. 

The Cowboys look to continue their Cinderella run against the Boilermakers on Saturday. McNeese ranks 63rd and 59th in KenPom offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, compared to Purdue's sixth and 60th rankings, respectively. McNeese relied on some big bench numbers from Brandon Murray against Clemson, who scored 21 points with four rebounds in the win. 

But the strength of McNeese is on defense, as it held the Tigers to just 13 points in the first half. The Cowboys hold opponents to just 64.1 points per game and let them shoot just 40.1 percent from the floor, both good for top 20 rankings.  

This will be a unique test for Purdue's high-scoring offense, led by forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, who puts up 20.2 points per game and is a great facilitator on offense, as well. McNeese's defense may be one of the toughest Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Co. have seen all year.

To pull off another upset, McNeese will have to play better down the stretch. The Cowboys led 31-13 in the first half, but they let Clemson have a furious 54-point second half. Purdue also shoots 38.3 percent from beyond the arc, which will further challenge this Cowboy defense. 

Opponent: Arkansas 

Moneyline: St. John's -305

Oh man, we're in for a treat on Saturday afternoon, as legendary head coaches Rick Pitino and John Calipari face off once again. These two are in rebuilding phases of their careers following their departures from Louisville and Kentucky, respectively. Calipari has a 16-12 edge over Pitino all-time, and the two have split four NCAA tournament games.

Coaches aside, St. John's is led by its stifling defense, which ranks first overall, per KenPom. That may not bode well for an Arkansas team whose offense ranks 72nd on KenPom. But the Razorbacks have scored 80.6 points per game in their last eight. Jonas Aidoo, who scored 22 points against Kansas, will likely need a big day. 

The Red Storm's defense is anchored by guard Kadary Richmond, who averages 6.5 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. If St. John's defense can limit Arkansas to under 70 points, Pitino could be on his way to a Sweet 16.  

But this Arkansas offense has been peaking at just the right time, and that could easily continue on Saturday. 

Opponent: No. 11 Drake

Moneyline: Texas Tech: -310

Drake is having a sensational season, which included winning the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season and tournament titles, and just three losses on the year.

Texas Tech made the tournament after finishing with an impressive 15-5 record in Big 12 play, including signature wins against Houston, Kansas and Baylor. 

Drake's defense holds opponents to just 58.4 points per game, good for second in the country. It also only lets teams shoot 31.0 percent from beyond the arc.

Texas Tech forward JT Toppin leads the Red Raiders in points per game (17.9) and boards per game (9.2). He'll need help from Darrion Williams, and the Red Raiders will hope to get Chance McMillian back. Those two are both dealing with injuries, but Williams played against UNC-Wilmington, while McMillian didn't. Tech ranks fifth overall in KenPom offensive adjusted efficiency.

For the Bulldogs, their leading scorer is guard Bennett Stirtz, who averages 19.2 points per game. If Tech's defense (36th in KenPom) can limit Stirtz the likes of Daniel Abreu and Tavion Banks will have to step up. 

Don't be surprised if Drake's eight-game winning streak continues.

Opponent: No. 6 BYU

Moneyline: BYU -105

The oddsmakers have this game as a tossup, but a BYU win would count as an upset here since the Cougars are the lower seed.

The Badgers finished the regular season just 2-3 to drop to 13-7 in conference play,but had a great Big Ten tournament. Wisconsin made it to the conference tournament final against Michigan, losing 59-53. BYU entered the NCAA tournament 24-9 in Kevin Young's first year as the Cougars head coach. 

Wisconsin ranks 13th overall in KenPom, with an impressive 13th mark in offensive adjusted efficiency. Guards John Tonje (19.1 PPG) and John Blackwell (15.6) lead the way. But the Badgers also get solid contributions from forwards Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter.

BYU is also a great offensive team, putting up 80.9 points per game and shooting 37 percent from beyond the arc. The Cougars' leading scorer is forward Richie Saunders, who puts up 16 points per game and shots 42.4 from three. Guard Egor Demin is an all-round talent touted as NBA draft prospect, and BYU also gets key contributions from Trevin Knell, Fousseyni Traore and Keba Keita.

An X-factor in this game is the potential BYU crowd advantage, as Denver is considerably closer to Provo than Madison.