MLB Buy or Sell on Jung Hoo Lee and 7 Early Breakout Stars

Even after Gunnar Henderson won the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 2023, it was clear he was going to take a massive step forward in 2024 when he hit 10 home runs from March to April.

As it turned out, Henderson hit 37 home runs, posted an .893 OPS and finished fourth in AL MVP voting—quite the breakout even after a tremendous rookie campaign.

So of those off to hot starts in 2025, who will be able to sustain it?

Tyler Soderstrom was a first-round pick in 2020, and based off of the start he's had in 2025, it looks like the Athletics have another building block in a lineup that includes Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker.

Soderstrom hit his MLB-leading ninth home run Thursday afternoon, firmly putting himself in position to win AL Player of the Month.

Oftentimes when a player is having this good of a month, their batting average on balls in play will be something that's ridiculously unsustainable. But Soderstrom is hitting .324, which is actually 20 points higher than his .304 BABIP.

It probably isn't sustainable to hit homers at the clip that Soderstrom is, but we are buying that the 23-year-old is going to be able to sustain this enough to be an All-Star.

Andre Pallante was a fourth-round pick by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2019, and did post a 3.78 ERA across 121.1 innings pitched a year ago. So it's not as though he's completely come out of nowhere.

Still, it's hard not to be impressed by Pallante's 2.20 ERA across his first three starts (16.1 innings) of the season:

With that said, we aren't going to buy Pallante's start. That's not to say he won't be an effective big league starter this year, but he has a 3.80 expected ERA and 4.30 FIP, both of which suggest his current pace isn't sustainable.

Spencer Torkelson appeared to be a change-of-scenery candidate at the outset of spring training. Based on the way he's started 2025, you can bet the Tigers are happy that they've held onto the former No. 1 overall pick.

After hitting .219 with a .669 OPS in 2024, Torkelson has already launched six home runs, making him one of the best early stories of the season:

What we'll buy is that Torkelson can put up a year similar to what he did in 2023 when he hit 31 home runs and drove in 94 runs.

The problem with 2023, though, is that Torkelson hit .233 with a .758 OPS and 171 strikeouts. Right now, he's hitting .273, but doing so with an unsustainable .324 batting average on balls in play. He's also still striking out in over 30 percent of his at-bats. The early power surge is great, but questions remain with the 25-year-old.

Caleb Ferguson has a 0.90 ERA to show for his first 10 appearances out of the bullpen this season for the Pirates.

He isn't the closer for Pittsburgh, but his strong start has nonetheless been helpful for a team that had to option two-time All-Star David Bednar to Triple-A after three nightmarish appearances.

But Ferguson is another guy who the underlying metrics don't love. On top of the fact that he had a 3.68 ERA in 263 career games coming into this season, his 3.71 FIP and 5.71 xFIP paint the picture of someone primed for regression as the year goes along.

At the time of publication, the Arizona Diamondbacks have two of the top 10 position players in terms of WAR so far this season: Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo.

While Carroll was predictable, Perdomo wasn't necessarily. He was worth 2.3 WAR two seasons ago when the Diamondbacks made a run to the World Series, but for him to already have 1.2 WAR this season is pretty remarkable.

Defensively, we've always bought Perdomo. After posting 10 defensive runs saved last season, he already has two DRS and five outs above average at shortstop this year.

Offensively, he's hitting .311, despite having a .286 batting average on balls in play. So if you thought he was a benefactor of early luck, that's really not the case. Now whether his walk percentage will stay at 16.5 percent or not—he finished last year at 9.3%—patience is an area where a player can realistically improve at as their career goes along.

Perdomo was already a strong defender, and there's some evidence that he's improved both as a hitter and in terms of patience. We're going to buy his hit start, which is scary for the rest of the league considering how many excellent players the Snakes already had.

Is Keibert Ruiz a better player than the one who combined to post a minus-0.8 WAR for the Washington Nationals between 2023 and 2024? Yes. That's why he was one of the key pieces that the Nationals got back in the trade that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Los Angeles Dodgers in July of 2021.

However, we're not buying that his offense start is necessarily sustainable. He's walked only four times, and hasn't hit a home run since going yard in each of the first two games this season. He's hitting .317, but his .333 batting average on balls in play—he has a .259 career BABIP—suggests that won't continue.

This isn't to say that Ruiz isn't a starting MLB catcher who still has some upside at 26 years old. But over the course of a six-month season, you can't assume that a few impressive moments early in the campaign is going to necessarily be indicative of what's to come.

There was a perception that the San Francisco Giants overpaid in giving Jung Hoo Lee a six-year, $113 million deal to come over from the KBO. Lee didn't really get a chance to prove that thought wrong in his rookie season of 2024 because he underwent season-ending surgery in mid-May last year.

However, Lee has gotten off to a scorching-hot start in his second MLB season, hitting .348 with a 1.2 WAR that's tied for fifth among position players. He's also about as smooth as they come in center field, never looking panicked even on plays with a high level of difficulty.

It is true that Lee's .370 batting average on balls in play isn't sustainable, but good things tend to happen when you put the ball in play. Because he's not a guy who strikes out a ton, his mix of contact and a willingness to work walks should make him a valuable tablesetter for the Giants. We're buying his quick start.