Realistic Expectations for Every CFB Program with a New HC in 2025

When money is abundant, patience is thin.

That's the nature of the coaching world in college football, where the leader of a successful program one season may be looking for a different job within a year. That all makes for a dizzying carousel each offseason.

In the 2025 campaign, there will be 28 new permanent coaches around the Football Bowl Subdivision. Expectations for them, as you can imagine, vary greatly.

The tiers are subjective but consider a team's recent performance and its 2025 outlook based on the current roster and schedule.

Note: Interim coaches at Kent State (Mark Carney) and Stanford (Frank Reich) are excluded. Their shared goal is to prevent a total collapse at reeling programs.

Within this section, don't expect much winning.

Look, it might happen! I've been surprised—read: incredibly wrong—before and, unfortunately, am certain that will happen again. Each of these programs is facing a heck of an uphill climb to competitiveness, though.

Purdue just finished 1-11 and faces a tough road through the Big Ten next season, so Barry Odom's debut in West Lafayette likely will be frustrating.

Fanbases supporting Willie Simmons (Florida International), Tony Gibson (Marshall), Jason Eck (New Mexico) and Scott Abell (Rice) would be wise to give their respective newcomer plenty of grace in 2025, as well.

The same applies to Mike Uremovich (Ball State) and Joe Harasymiak (Massachusetts), two new coaches in the MAC.

The season probably won't be great, but it might not be terrible!

Charles Kelly inherits a Jacksonville State program coming off a 9-4 season, and Eddie George takes over at Bowling Green after a seven-win campaign. There's at least a little more hope for success at those schools.

However, they're in this category with a bunch of others who are facing—not necessarily a rebuild, but—a notable overhaul.

Inside the American alone, there's Tim Albin (Charlotte), Zach Kittley (Florida Atlantic), K.C. Keeler (Temple) and Tre Lamb (Tulsa).

Bronco Mendenhall brings his program-building skills to Utah State, while Jack Dickert (Wake Forest) and Dowell Loggains (Appalachian State) are seasoned coaches who should keep the program from sinking, at worst.

I still don't understand why Kennesaw State bailed on Brian Bohannon, but Jerry Mack might be able to capitalize on his work.

For these programs, making the postseason is a legitimate goal. Beyond that, it would take a lucky bounce—or three—to truly contend.

The biggest names here are Rich Rodriguez (West Virginia) and Scott Frost (Central Florida), who both reunited with a former program. Rodriguez went 60-26 in seven seasons at WVU from 2001-07, and Frost oversaw the 13-0 surge at UCF during the school's memorable 2017 campaign.

Charles Huff led Marshall to a Conference USA title last season and brought many key contributors to spark Southern Miss, which finished 1-11 in 2024. Washington State, similarly, embraced a South Dakota State-infused overhaul and should be a bowl threat under Jimmy Rogers.

Blake Harrell posted a 5-1 record after taking over at East Carolina last season, and Matt Entz inherits a sturdy Fresno State program. While roster turnover is considerable for them, bowl contention is reasonable.

Matt Drinkall (Central Michigan) is perhaps an unexpected pick, but Jim McElwain laid a decent foundation in Mount Pleasant.

The first two choices are obvious.

Ohio won a MAC championship last season, and the school promoted offensive coordinator Brian Smith following Tim Albin's departure for Charlotte. Smith is aiming at the program's fourth straight 10-win year.

K.C. Keeler oversaw Sam Houston's transition into the FBS, earned a job at Temple and left Phil Longo with a ready-made winner in Conference USA.

Now, as for Bill Belichick...

I am personally not sold on North Carolina, but that's just one opinion. Since the schedule is very favorable—no Miami, Louisville, SMU or even Georgia Tech or Florida State—UNC shouldn't be overlooked.

Rarely does a first-year coach inherit a national threat, and seldom does the best option in this category feature a Group of Five school.

How about Dan Mullen and UNLV, though?

Odom elevated the Rebels in a hurry, leading them to consecutive Mountain West championship game appearances and a combined 20-8 record.

The roster is heavily dependent on transfers, but UNLV's incoming talent looks good on paper. Mullen, who amassed a 103-61 record at Mississippi State and Florida, certainly can win in Vegas—and it might happen quickly.

Bring home a Mountain West crown, and UNLV would have a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff as the highest-ranked G5 champion.