Popular MLB Preseason Predictions That Already Look Wrong

In general, you don't want to drastically overreact to the first few weeks of the MLB season because as the cliche goes, it's a marathon, not a sprint.

With that said, sometimes some things become so clear that it's fair to admit early defeat on a prediction you may have had coming into the season.

To that end, here are some popular MLB preseason predictions that already look wrong.

In a division where the Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants all improved in the offseason, the Padres saw Jurickson Profar, Tanner Scott and Ha-Seong Kim depart in free agency. They appeared to be an obvious regression candidate before the season after winning 93 games a year ago.

Instead, the Padres are off to a scalding-hot start, as they became the first team to 15 wins last week. Fernando Tatis Jr. looks like he did a few years ago, a pretty scary development for the rest of the league considering you know there will be stretches where Manny Machado and Luis Arráez carry this lineup. Jackson Merrill was also building on an incredible rookie season before a right hamstring strain sidelined him.

The bad part for Mike Shildt's squad is that even with an amazing start, the Padres haven't really built any cushion in the NL West. It's probably going to take 100 wins to capture the NL West crown, and there's a good chance that this division produces three playoff teams in 2025.

But San Diego's bullpen—led by Robert Suárez and Jason Adam—has been dominant so far in 2025. Nick Pivetta looks like a great addition to the starting rotation. If Dylan Cease gets back on track, this is a team that will compete for the top wild-card spot in the National League, if not the NL West title.

Tanner Bibee was a dark-horse AL Cy Young Award prediction from some coming into the season after he posted a 3.25 ERA over his first two MLB seasons with the Cleveland Guardians.

But thus far, Bibee has struggled. Over his first four outings of the season, Bibee has a 5.85 ERA, having surrendered an MLB-worst seven home runs. To put that in perspective, Bibee gave up 22 home runs over 31 starts last season, so the rate he's giving up home runs at is alarming.

The most likely scenario is that Bibee will recover from a disappointing first month. But for a club that already appeared to be thin in the starting rotation even when you were banking on Bibee having a big year, the start that the 26-year-old has had is concerning

Despite hitting .218 in his first 31 MLB games last season, Dylan Crews was a popular NL Rookie of the Year pick coming into the year. If you made that bet, don't expect it to cash.

Crews—whom the Washington Nationals selected with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft—didn't have a home run or RBI until this past weekend. Granted, he homered twice Saturday against the Colorado Rockies. But at the time of publication, he's got a minus-0.3 WAR, which is one of the worst marks in the league.

With three remaining minor-league options, Crews needs to build on Saturday's performance to avoid being sent to Triple-A Rochester. That wouldn't be the end of the world considering he's only 23, but it would be a disappointing development given how much excitement there was about Crews coming into the year.

There probably wasn't anyone who thought that the Baltimore Orioles would be better off without Corbin Burnes, who departed for a lucrative free-agent contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks after finishing fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting last year.

But if you thought that the Orioles would still be a really good team in 2025 without Burnes, you weren't alone. Still, early returns suggest you were mistaken.

Grayson Rodriguez is currently waiting for a second opinion on his shoulder, which usually isn't a good sign. Zach Eflin, who has a lengthy injury history, is currently out with a right lat strain. Meanwhile, Charlie Morton, Cade Povich and Dean Kremer are all off to miserable starts.

If you're looking for a silver lining, Baltimore's bullpen looks much better than it did a year ago. Cedric Mullins is off to a great start, and you know Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are going to get going. But man, the starting pitching has had a brutal beginning to 2025.

There was a pretty widespread belief coming into the season that the Atlanta Braves would be the biggest competition to the Dodgers, certainly in the NL and perhaps in all of baseball.

Instead, the Braves have gotten off to a 7-13 start, with Chris Sale, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II all scuffling out of the gates. Not to mention the aforementioned Profar is serving an 81-game suspension for a failed performance-enhancing drug test, and it's unclear if Reynaldo López will return this season after he underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery earlier this month.

The Braves just got Spencer Strider back, and former NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. continues to progress as he works his way back from a left ACL tear. Neither the New York Mets or Philadelphia Phillies have built an insurmountable lead in the NL East, so it would hardly be shocking if the Braves go on a heater and end up winning the division as many expected they would prior to the year.

But given how well the Padres are playing right now, the Braves have a long way to go before regaining the title as the biggest threats to the Dodgers in the NL.