BS Meter on the Latest 2025 Summer Transfer Rumors

The world football transfer rumor mill never truly stops, but it has cranked up a gear with European clubs entering the final throes of their respective seasons.

With everything set to be wrapped up in the 2024-25 campaign in the coming weeks, the planning for an assault on silverware next season is truly getting underway.

Areas of need will have been identified. Dead weight is being shifted to the side. And potential bargains are being sniffed out.

But of the hottest stories making the rounds in April, what’s the likelihood that they’ll play out when the summer transfer window opens? Read on for whether we’re breaking out the BS Meter on the latest rumors for the biggest European clubs 

Remember, with the reformatted Club World Cup taking place in the summer, Premier League and Ligue 1 teams can bolster their squads from June 1 until June 10. The window will then close again until June 16 for the Premier League and July 1 for Ligue 1, lasting through to September 1. 

For most other European leagues, the big football trading period begins July 1 and ends September 1. 

A potential deal that has looked nearly certain for months has had a little more doubt thrown upon it.

Trent Alexander-Arnold has not signed a new contract with Liverpool, and plenty of signs are pointing to him rocking up at the Santiago Bernabeu next season on a free transfer.

But April saw some interesting developments. Fellow contract holdouts Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk have both put pen to paper to stay at Anfield for another two years.

For a while, it looked like they’d both be saying goodbye to the red half of Merseyside, but two new deals in little over a week have brought some early smiles to Liverpool fans ahead of a likely Premier League title.

Elsewhere, Real Madrid crashed out of the UEFA Champions League to Arsenal. Los Blancos are also trailing Barcelona in the La Liga title race, sowing some seeds of discontent among the Real hierarchy. That could lead to Carlo Ancelotti’s departure at the end of the season, with the Brazil job waiting for the Italian as a safety net.

With the landscape at Liverpool and Real Madrid shifting slightly, Alexander-Arnold might be rethinking a summer switch.

But this is Real Madrid we’re talking about. The road from the north-west of England to the Spanish capital is well worn, and clubs of this caliber don’t come knocking regularly. Trent surely won’t turn the opportunity down.

Verdict: Not BS

Player swaps between clubs are often talked about but rarely come to fruition. It usually seems like a win-win scenario, but it’s certainly more complicated to pull off than it seems from the outside.

Marcus Rashford has been enjoying himself on loan at Aston Villa, away from the Manchester United cauldron. He’s played 16 times for the West Midlanders, scoring three goals and making six assists in all competitions. 

He’s also enjoyed Champions League football, featuring four times on the European stage and providing two assists. 

A permanent deal could suit everyone. But despite the club’s willingness to offload the 27-year-old, United will still expect the Villans to make a deal with the Red Devils.

Ollie Watkins could be the sacrificial lamb to make the deal happen, with the Daily Star suggesting United will propose a swap. 

Watkins has had a weird season with Villa. Despite finishing second in combined goals and assists (32) in the Premier League in 2023-24, level with Erling Haaland, he’s started only 38 of a possible 48 games in all competitions, with 16 goals and 13 assists to show for it.

He’s been looked over for big games, too, starting from the bench in both legs of the Champions League quarterfinal against PSG. Before the Christmas period, he saw his first-choice striking berth usurped by Jhon Durán, but then the Colombian moved to Saudi Arabia. 

While rotation to keep Watkins fresh could be explained for keeping him out of the starting XI, it feels like Unai Emery isn’t quite convinced by the 29-year-old.

With United in desperate need of a goalscorer, and with the club effectively closing the door on a Rashford return, this potential swap does make a lot of sense. Remember, though, swap deals are tricky to pull off—even when considering United are one of the few clubs to make it happen, with United’s Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez trading places in 2018. 

Rashford might not be at United next season, and Watkins might depart Villa. But the much-fantasized player swap isn’t how their exits are going to happen.

Verdict: It's BS

Manchester City goalkeeper Ederson has been one of the best between the posts for the better part of the last decade, but the Brazilian’s injury record has left him unavailable for much of the last few seasons. 

Since January 2024, the 31-year-old has been in the treatment room for 17 games, according to TransferMarkt. Having your starting goalkeeper absent so regularly isn’t exactly ideal.

With concerns about his fitness growing, Manchester City are reportedly in the market for a new first-choice keeper. 

According to The Mirror, the Citizens could go shopping in Portugal again for their No. 1, with Porto’s Diogo Costa on the list.

At six years the Brazilian’s junior, the Portugal national team’s stopper is already one of the most sought-after goalkeepers on the planet and would be a perfect successor to the former Benfica man. 

Costa has missed just 11 games for club and country since 2019, per TransferMarkt, and he has conceded just 26 goals in 30 games for Os Dragões in the Primeira Liga this season. He’s known for being comfortable with the ball at his feet and can spray passes around the pitch with panache, something that Pep Guardiola obviously values.

With The Mirror reporting Costa has a £63 million buyout clause ($85 million) and just two years left on his contract, a deal is there to be made. For City, Costa could be the perfect fit.

Verdict: Not BS

Among Bournemouth’s breakout stars in the 2024-25 season, Dean Huijsen is perhaps the brightest.

Top-quality center backs are few and far between, and Huijsen is already turning heads with his composed displays for the Cherries. 

The one-capped Spain international is comfortable with both feet, meaning he can play in both the right and left center back positions, and at just 20 years old, he could be the bedrock of a top club’s backline for a generation. 

Of course, plenty of clubs are on alert, with The Athletic’s David Ornstein reporting Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur are sniffing around, and ESPN also credited Real Madrid with an interest. 

A reported £50 million release clause ($67 million) makes a deal even easier to make, and the big clubs won’t be scared of coughing up that much to sign a center back who could stick around for over a decade.

Liverpool are in desperate need of reinforcements in the heart of defense, with Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate holding down the fort all season with minimal breaks because of doubts about Jarell Quansah and injury to Joe Gomez. 

Huijsen, who was born in the Netherlands but grew up in Spain, would surely jump at the chance to further his football education under the guidance of Virgil van Dijk, while he would likely be the Dutchman’s heir apparent when the 33-year-old moves on. 

At Liverpool, he would either enter the starting XI immediately or at least get regular game time quickly, with Konate injury-prone and always capable of a costly error of judgement. 

Joining the likely Premier League title winners will undoubtedly be appealing, too.

Verdict: Not BS

In August 2024, Vinicus Junior was reportedly approached by the Saudi Investment Fund, which offered him a five-year deal worth $200 million per season to join the Saudi Pro League, per Reuters. That’s right, mathematics fans, that’s $1 billion for half a decade.

Of course, that’s on top of the player’s $1 billion release clause, as The Athletic cited. 

That’s a whole lot of money for the Ballon d’Or runner-up (too soon, Madrid fans?). 

It’s not out of the question that the SIF will make another play to get the Brazilian on board. Whether it will be successful is another matter entirely.

Real will not want to countenance a sale, even if the release clause is met, and despite the eye-watering sums, Vinicius still has unfinished business that can’t be realistically achieved while playing in the Middle East. 

In fact, Los Blancos were close to a new contract with the 24-year-old in April, according to Cadena SER (h/t Goal).

It will be tempting, but it’s just not likely Vinicius will give up on European football just yet. 

Verdict: BS

Arsenal can’t rely on Mikel Merino forever. 

The Spaniard, a center midfielder by trade, has done an admirable job in the center-forward spot while Arsenal has been short in the striker department. Six goals—including one against Real Madrid—in 10 games in an unfamiliar position is, frankly, remarkable. 

But if the Gunners really want to make good on the last few seasons of undoubted potential, they are going to need an out-and-out striker.

Sporting CP’s Viktor Gyökeres likely won’t stick around in Portugal for another year. The Swede has scored 63 goals in 62 Primeira Liga appearances across two seasons, and he’s just three points behind Mohamed Salah in the race for the European Golden Boot for the 2024-25 campaign (despite being hindered by the Portuguese top flight’s lower coefficient). 

He’s set for greater things, and according to A Bola (h/t ESPN), a switch to the Emirates Stadium is favored by the 26-year-old. 

He’ll have options elsewhere, surely, but being an almost guaranteed starter at a top Premier League club that’s set to play a Champions League semifinal seems like a solid bet. 

For Gyökeres, London is calling.

Verdict: Not BS

It’s difficult to understand where Barcelona truly sits in financial terms. 

The club was able to buy Dani Olmo last summer for a reported €60 million ($69 million), per the Guardian, but he’s missed a handful of games because the club has had issues with officially registering him. It’s been a similar situation with Pau Victor. 

Do La Blaugrana actually have any financial clout at the moment, or is it all just smoke and mirrors?

The club are reportedly interested in Nico Williams, which would bring him together with Lamine Yamal and Olmo, who terrorized defenses on the way to Spain winning the 2024 European Championship. For the future of both Barcelona and the Spain national team, it’s a deal that makes sense.

But despite that interest, Marca (h/t Goal) noted Barça have had to drop out of the race for the 22-year-old winger because of a lack of funds, leaving the door open for other prospective suitors. 

Williams has been content to stay at Athletic Bilbao with brother Iñaki despite offers from elsewhere, and he may still want to stick around for a little bit longer. 

With Barcelona on track to win La Liga and potential player sales also bolstering the coffers, Williams’ patient approach might eventually give him that linkup with his Spain international cohorts. 

It just won’t be this summer. 

Verdict: BS