MLB Fact or Fiction on Soto Missing Judge and 8 Storylines Around the League

A few weeks into the 2025 MLB season, we're really starting to get a sense of what it's all about.

Or so we think, anyway. Because while some early storylines—i.e., Aaron Judge still being a nightmare and the Los Angeles Dodgers being very good—haven't caught anyone off-guard, there are some that require more careful scrutiny.

So, we're going to play a game of "Fact or Fiction" with eight storylines.

To avoid repeating ourselves, we won't be talking about any subjects we covered in our recent looks at early surprises and slumps. Otherwise, the goal is to drill down into how believable each storyline is. If it's believable, it's fact. If not, fiction.

Let's start with a guy who's hitting like he wants to be the next person to have a monument built to him in our nation's capital.

What's Going on Here?

James Wood doesn't lead the league in home runs, but it's fair to say that he's cranked his personal hype train up to supersonic speeds out of the gate.

The Washington Nationals' 22-year-old slugger has gone deep seven times, and how. Five of the lefty swinger's seven homers have gone out to the left of center field, and the whole bunch have averaged 108.7 mph in exit velocity and 408 feet in distance. Only the big boys play in those arenas.

Is It Believable?

Wood is 6'7", 234 pounds, so it tracks that he would be able to make mincemeat of baseballs upon barreling them up.

It's unsurprising that there's some swing-and-miss in Wood's game, but it's not as bad as one might think. Though he is in the 35th percentile with his whiff rate, it's worth recalling that Aaron Judge was in the 4th percentile with his whiff rate when he first emerged as MLB's slugging king back in 2017.

This is not to suggest that Wood is the next Judge, because that would be putting way too much pressure on the poor guy. But since he's clearly powerful and his swing isn't clearly full of holes, this Washington, D.C. resident has our vote.

Verdict: Fact

What's Going on Here?

Take a look at the rWAR leaderboard for the 2025 season, and you'll see Fernando Tatis Jr. at 2.1 and nobody else over the 2.0 threshold.

It's a heck of a start for the San Diego Padres right fielder, and it feels akin to a return to form. As solid as he was after returning from his lost 2022 season in 2023 and 2024, this is the first time he's looked like the guy who averaged 8.0 rWAR per 162 games between 2019 and 2021.

Is It Believable?

There's no trickery at play with Tatis' wins above replacement. He's batting .349/.424/.663 with a NL-high eight homers, and he's already at plus-three for Defensive Runs Saved. A guy with those numbers would have a high WAR.

The obvious caveat with including Tatis in the Best Player in MLB discussion is that Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani still exist. The former even leads him in fWAR, which is certainly a valid form of wins above replacement.

There's never been any question about Tatis' talent, however, and his dramatic strikeout decline has a discernable source. As such, "he'll regress eventually" is the only readily available argument against how he's started this season.

Verdict: Fact

What's Going on Here?

Sandy Alcantara is going to be the most sought-after player on the trade market once the Miami Marlins make him available, but that may not be soon.

This is according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who reported Sunday that the Marlins are planning to hold onto the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner "until the final days before the July 31 trade deadline."

Is It Believable?

There actually is a case for taking this at face value, and not just because Alcantara has shot his own value in the foot with a 7.27 ERA through four starts.

At 10-12, the Marlins have been surprisingly competitive. And with the Atlanta Braves (8-13) floundering in the NL East, the Marlins have to wonder if they have a more straightforward path to contention than they anticipated.

Then again, this is the same team that only waited until May 4 to trade Luis Arraez last year. It's hard to imagine Alcantara moving that early, but it's not hard to imagine a scenario in which his value and the Marlins' playoff odds are heading in opposite directions in early July or even June.

Verdict: Fiction

What's Going on Here?

Kyle Tucker's earning power was sky-high before the season began, with Tim Britton of The Athletic putting the price tag for an extension at 11 years, $366 million.

This was before Vladimir Guerrero Jr. inked a $500 million contract, however, not to mention before Tucker put up a 1.018 OPS in his first 24 games with the Chicago Cubs. And with free agency coming after the season, Robert Murray of FanSided reports that Tucker isn't even talking to the Cubs about an extension.

Is It Believable?

Murray is a credible insider and his reporting isn't a surprise. Why would Tucker negotiate with one team when he's months away from being able to negotiate with all 30?

And yet, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote that Tucker and the Cubs "may well talk this summer." And while the Cubs have never gone above $184 million for a player, that they can afford to go further is not in question. According to Forbes, they have the third-biggest revenue stream of any MLB team.

For Tucker's part, fear of injury won't be the only reason to listen if the Cubs make him a fair offer. Suffice it to say that there's a ton of uncertainty on the horizon, both within MLB and outside of it.

Verdict: Fiction

What's Going on Here?

For anyone who missed it, here's the quote from Juan Soto that shocked the baseball world last week: "I had the best hitter in baseball batting behind me. I was getting attacked and more pitches in the strike zone, less intentional walks and things like that. I was pitched differently last year."

The New York Mets right fielder told that to Mike Puma of the New York Post, with the implication being that he had it easier when he spent last season batting in front of Aaron Judge in the Yankees' lineup.

Hoo boy, are the optics bad here. Frankly, a $765 million player should not be whining about lineup protection, much less calling someone else the "best hitter in baseball."

Is It Believable?

Optics aside, there is a kernel of truth to what Soto said. He's already been walked intentionally as many times as he did throughout all of 2024, and his rate of pitches in the strike zone is indeed down.

It's not out of bounds to look back on the .989 OPS and career-high 41 homers that Soto posted in 2024 and wonder if it was all because of Judge's protection. And whereas Soto has a modest .785 OPS in 2025, Judge is doing fine with a 1.188 OPS.

All the same, let's pump the brakes a little. April is typically Soto's least productive month, and key performance indicators like his walk rate (17.0 percent) and exit velocity (93.0 mph) are about where they should be. He'll more than likely be fine.

Verdict: Fiction

What's Going on Here?

Even before the Milwaukee Brewers racked up a franchise-record nine stolen bases on Sunday, you might have gotten the sense that everyone is running wild in 2025.

It's not an illusion. The rate of stolen bases in MLB is 0.83 per game, marking only the second time since 1920 that it's been over 0.8. And this is even though noted 104-steal maestro Chandler Simpson only just joined the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday.

Is It Believable?

As far as explanations for this phenomenon go, bigger bases and limits on pick-offs are still in play. Otherwise, you have to wonder if the risk/reward equation on stolen bases has changed.

The stolen base went out of style in the 2000s and 2010s because it came to be generally agreed upon that outs were too precious to risk throwing away, particularly as more and more hitters got capable of hitting the long ball.

In 2025, however, homers are not as prevalent (1.07 per game) as they were at MLB's peak in 2019 (1.39 per game). And with the league tying an all-time low with a .237 batting average so far in 2025, there is sense in taking more risks on the basepaths.

Then again, caught-stealings are also up to 0.22 per game and this isn't the first time that the MLB average has been especially low in April. Once hits start coming more frequently amid warmer weather, expect the risk-taking to ebb accordingly.

Verdict: Fiction

What's Going on Here?

The National League West is not actually projected to put four teams in the playoffs. And given that such a thing has never happened, the notion itself ought to be absurd.

The records don't lie, though. The San Diego Padres (16-7), Los Angeles Dodgers (16-7), San Francisco Giants (15-8) and Arizona Diamondbacks (13-9) are among the nine best teams in all of MLB.

The Padres lead the division, while the Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks currently hold the NL's three wild-card spots.

Is It Believable?

Let's go to the odds each of these teams has of making the playoffs at FanGraphs:

• Dodgers: 97.6 percent
• Diamondbacks: 60.2 percent
• Giants: 52.1 percent
• Padres: 50.8 percent

Each is more likely than not to make the playoffs, and each team still has some untapped upside. As an example, the Giants aren't going to get a mere .531 OPS from Willy Adames all season.

Further, there's a real conversation to be had about whether the NL can produce enough challengers to keep the NL West from total domination of the playoff field. The NL East will be short a contender as long as the Braves are slumping, while the NL Central is lacking in convincing contenders apart from the Cubs.

Verdict: Fact

What's Going on Here?

Meanwhile in the American League, everything just...honestly, kind of stinks.

By record, only four of the top 10 teams in MLB call the American League home. There are also only five teams in the Junior Circuit with a positive run differential, and one of them (i.e., the Tampa Bay Rays) is four games under .500.

Is It Believable?

This would be shocking if it wasn't so predictable, as the AL always looked weaker than the NL coming into the year. And according to ESPN's Buster Olney, the "enormous disparity" between the two leagues is a talking point among MLB executives.

Further, the New York Yankees are the only AL squad among FanGraphs' top four World Series contenders. Even they have real issues, including a rotation that ranks 27th in ERA and a supposed star closer with a 9.00 ERA.

This is not to say there's no hope for the AL, but what hope there is of the abstract variety. The trade market could turn teams like the Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners into proper juggernauts, while the Boston Red Sox may only need to call up Roman Anthony to pull off that kind of transformation.

For now, though, the AL really is that mid.

Verdict: Fact

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.