Buy or Sell on Yankees' Ben Rice, Nationals' James Wood and MLB's Young Rising Stars

The 2025 MLB season is beginning to creep out of small-sample-size territory, and that could be either good news or bad news for certain players.

Today, we want to talk about young stars who have taken the league by storm.

You might think we mean the year's top rookies, but nope. They're covered elsewhere. In focus here are players aged 26 and under who have raised their personal bars higher than anyone might have expected in the first month of the new season.

But which of these breakout performances are for real? And which are basically fool's gold?

Let's get into it by playing a game of "Buy or Sell" with 10 players.

Age: 25

2025 Stats: 31 G, 119PA, 6 HR, 4 SB, .283 AVG, .403 OBP, .525 SLG

We already knew Wilyer Abreu was capable of playing a different sort of defense in right field, as he's fresh off posting elite metrics and winning a Gold Glove in 2024.

It was certainly harder to anticipate a 148-point OPS increase, and he is already making progress toward last year's totals for home runs (15) and stolen bases (eight). It's at least a 20-20 season he's working toward.

One word of warning is that Abreu's batted ball profile looks a lot like it did in 2024, but it's all stemming from a clearly improved approach. He's among the league's biggest improvers with both his walk rate and his strikeout rate, hence the .403 OBP.

It helps that the Red Sox are basically hiding the left-handed-hitting Abreu from left-handed pitchers, against whom he has only 15 plate appearances. Because of that, he is effectively a glorified platoon hitter.

Yet given 74 percent of all pitches are thrown by righties, this isn't so much a complaint as a mere observation.

Verdict: Buy

Age: 26

2025 Stats: 29 G, 107 PA, 4 HR, 0 SB, .308 AVG, .402 OBP, .538 SLG

Wilyer Abreu isn't the only left-handed hitter who's taking full advantage of a platoon role in the American League East. That's Jonathan Aranda's whole thing, too.

He's taken only 19 plate appearances against lefties, otherwise mashing to the tune of a 1.020 OPS in 88 exposures to righties. And as for how he's doing it, suffice it to say he's an exit velocity maestro.

Aranda is hitting the ball at an average of 94.8 mph and getting over 95 mph on 61.2 percent of all his batted balls. The latter is the fourth-highest mark among qualified hitters.

He also has 12 walks against 22 strikeouts, but his approach is also where his profile begins to break down a little. Unlike Abreu, Aranda has a basically average chase rate and a below average whiff rate.

Aranda is also hitting more ground balls (44.3 GB%) than his AL East counterpart (29.2 GB%), which is typically not a recipe for sustained slugging success.

Verdict: Sell

Age: 26

2025 Stats: 6 GS, 37.0 IP, 24 H (1 HR), 40 K, 7 BB, 1.22 ERA

Because his 1.22 ERA is the fourth-best in MLB and his 1.84 FIP is the best in the AL, Hunter Brown is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball right now.

As such, our only hesitation with including him is whether this truly qualifies as a breakout. Though he had a 3.49 ERA overall in 2024, his last 22 starts of the year yielded a 2.31 ERA.

Brown isn't necessarily overpowering, as his whiff rate for this year is only in the 59th percentile. Yet he is weirdly capable of missing bats with all four of his primary pitches, each of which has a whiff rate of at least 20 percent.

Otherwise, it's generally a foolproof style of pitching for Brown. You can see the walks and strikeouts above, but also making him tick is a 50.6 ground-ball percentage. Basically, he doesn't give away at-bats and he prefers easy outs.

All told, we're now looking at a 2.07 ERA over 28 starts dating back to last May. It's fair to say this guy is for real.

Verdict: Buy

Age: 23

2025 Stats: 32 G, 134 PA, 6 HR, 12 SB, .266 AVG, .305 OBP, .508 SLG

Coming into this year, we knew Pete Crow-Armstrong was a game-changer in the field and on the basepaths. We just needed to know more about the bat.

To this end, he's been one of the biggest surprises in the league. His batting average is up 29 points relative to 2024, and he's in the top 30 of the league in slugging.

Crow-Armstrong is certainly capable of stretching singles into doubles with his speed, but he hasn't needed to rely solely on that to pump up his slugging percentage. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both up relative to 2024, and less than 30 percent of his batted balls have been on the ground.

The only real concern is PCA's 6-to-28 walk-to-strikeout ratio, and even his 62nd-percentile whiff rate only absolves him so much there. He makes his zone bigger than it should be via the fifth-highest chase rate in the league.

Hitters who chase that much generally have trouble with consistency, so this ultimately feels a little too much like a Jeff Francoeur all over again.

Verdict: Sell

Age: 26

2025 Stats: 7 GS, 41.0 IP, 36 H (5 HR), 59 K, 9 BB, 3.51 ERA

Your attention here is not meant to be directed at MacKenzie Gore's ERA. It's instead the 59 strikeouts that stand out, as they lead all MLB pitchers.

An increase of 11.0 points on a pitcher's strikeout rate can have that kind of effect. And while this is happening despite a 0.6 mph decrease in his average fastball, that pitch isn't really the star of the show.

Gore is leaning more heavily on his curveball and slider, both of which have whiff rates in the vicinity of 50 percent. Both pitches fall off the table, and he's been better about burying the curve below the zone where hitters can only flail at it.

Yet as nice as strikeouts are, Gore is getting hit hard when batters do make contact. His exit velocity is in the 11th percentile and his hard-hit rate is in the 15th, mostly owing to the notably less zippy fastball mentioned above.

As such, Gore will be in trouble if hitters stop biting at his breaking stuff.

Verdict: Sell

Age: 26

2025 Stats: 31 G, 129 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, .316 AVG, .372 OBP, .521 SLG

We barely got a chance to know Jung Hoo Lee in 2024 before his season ended early by way of a shoulder injury. And then the Giants fired the guy who signed him.

Yet it was apparent even early last year that Lee possessed an uncommon knack for putting the bat on the ball, ranking behind only Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan in contact percentage. The only question was if he had any oomph in his swing.

Frankly, the jury's still out there. Lee is below average with his contact quality, including with a hard-hit rate that is only in the 20th percentile.

All the same, Lee's profile is less Arraez and more Kwan, and in a good way. Arraez doesn't have much to offer beyond hitting singles, whereas Lee and Kwan at least offer good defense as well. Further, Lee is faster than Arraez and Kwan and has shown an ability to use his legs to stretch singles into doubles.

When a guy is light on power, it's special features like these that allow him to succeed anyway.

Verdict: Buy

Age: 26

2025 Stats: 27 G, 110 PA, 8 HR, 2 SB, .266 AVG, .373 OBP, .585 SLG

Unlike Wilyer Abreu and Jonathan Aranda, Ben Rice is a lefty hitter who's not being hidden from left-handers. He's taken 31 of his plate appearances against southpaws.

As he has only .538 OPS in those, it's remarkable that his overall line jumps off the page as much as it does. To wit, he would have a .323/.443/.692 slash line if he was playing exclusively against righties.

It's mostly hard contact that's allowing Rice to cook, as his 60.6 hard-hit rate is right below Aranda among qualified hitters. And unlike Aranda, there's discipline in Rice's offensive approach. His chase rate is in the 87th percentile.

The bigger concern is that Rice is hitting about half his balls (47.0 percent, to be exact) on the ground. Yet he's not being sustained by a high batting average on balls in play, as his is perfectly modest at .293.

Really the only thing holding him back is the exposure to left-on-left matchups. For the Yankees, that could be easily fixed as soon as Giancarlo Stanton is back.

Verdict: Buy

Age: 25

2025 Stats: 6 GS, 32.1 IP, 23 H (1 HR), 26 K, 12 BB, 2.23 ERA

Here's a fun fact about Shane Smith: Even before Paul Skenes had a rough one against the Chicago Cubs on Thursday, he still ranked below Smith in ERA.

It's exciting stuff for White Sox fans, who have obviously been starved for such stuff lately. Yet unfortunately for them, there really isn't much else about Smith that stands out.

A 2.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio isn't bad, per se, but it's not the kind of figure typically seen on a true ace pitcher. He has also hit five batters, which leads the American League.

The best thing the righty has going for him is a changeup that is driving a 70th-percentile whiff rate with a 35.2 swing-and-miss percentage. It's a fall-off-the-table pitch that is liable to make batters look silly.

Yet in addition to strikeouts, ground balls (45.6 GB%) aren't really Smith's thing, either. He also comes with a 44.4 hard-hit percentage, which is well below average and indicative of some of the good luck he's had so far.

Verdict: Sell

Age: 23

2025 Stats: 32 G, 134 PA, 9 HR, 1 SB, .289 AVG, .351 OBP, .554 SLG

Tyler Soderstrom played in 61 games in 2024 and hit nine home runs. He needed only 19 games to get to the same point with his power output this year.

This is even though, like Ben Rice, Soderstrom has not been shielded from left-on-left matchups by the A's. He's even held his own in the 34 plate appearances he's taken against lefties, batting .265.

He otherwise has all the hallmarks of an effective slugger, including a knack for hitting the ball at just the right angle—he's in the 94th percentile for hitting the ball in the "sweet spot"—with good exit velocity. He averages 92.8 mph when he gets wood on the ball.

Regression has already come for Soderstrom, though. He's been stuck on nine homers since April 17, with pitchers seemingly getting the gist to stop throwing him fastballs.

Despite his knack for the sweet spot, you'd also like to see a power hitter take to the air more often than Soderstrom does. He isn't even in the top 80 for fly-ball rate.

Verdict: Sell

Age: 22

2025 Stats: 32 G, 141 PA, 9 HR, 3 SB, .250 AVG, .362 OBP, .533 SLG

There are at least two things keeping James Wood from reaching his full slugging potential.

For one, a 27.0 strikeout percentage is on the high side. For two, his 57.2 ground-ball percentage is on the very high side. Only six hitters are putting the ball on the ground more frequently.

What is sustaining Wood is how often his fly balls clear the fence. They're doing so at a 33.3 percent clip, the best in baseball.

This should scream "unsustainable," but we're talking about a 6'7", 234-pounder who's averaging 94.1 mph and going as high as 116.3 mph on his batted balls. And he can clear the fence in every direction, with five homers to the left of center field and four to the right.

Moreover, Wood's 14.2 walk percentage is illustrative of how in command he is of his larger-than-most strike zone. Throw in a .833 OPS against left-handers, and you get a hitter who should keep thriving even if imperfections remain.

Verdict: Buy

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.