Niagara Basketball

Mid-major programs have the stage this weekend as they will try to improve their tournament chances and resumes. For some of these teams, a win against their opponent could more or less lock up an at-large bid.

For others, a loss could put the team up against the wall, forcing them to win their conference tournament in order to be called on Selection Sunday. 

Without further ado, here are previews to the two significant BracketBuster games on Friday night.

Illinois State (22-5, 11-5 MVC) @ Niagara (21-7, 12-4 MAAC) 7 PM TV: ESPN2

After starting 14-0, Illinois State has posted a mediocre 8-5 record over its last 13 games. Niagara had won seven games in a row before succumbing to Rider on Wednesday.

Neither team has a chance of an at-large bid, but this game will affect seeding if either of these teams win their respective conference championship. 

Both teams are efficient on offense—the Redbirds score 1.32 points per shot while the Purple Eagles score 1.25 points per shot—but the difference in this game will be defense. Niagara has been a better defensive team all year, averaging 37.8 rebounds, 10.5 steals, and five blocks per game. Joe Mihalich's club pushes the ball off of turnovers and has the ability to put teams away with its defense. 

The combination of strong defense and playing at home, where they are 8-2, will propel the Purple Eagles to victory.

Prediction: Niagara wins 76-68

Virginia Commonwealth (19-8, 12-4 CAA) @ Nevada (15-10, 8-5 WAC)

TV: ESPNU

There are two key factors that will allow the Rams to win this game—three-point shooting and containing Luke Babbitt.

The Rams shoot 36.9 percent from long range and you can bet they'll be successful from deep tonight—the Wolf Pack allow opponents to convert on 35.3 percent of their three-point attempts. Eric Maynor, Joey Rodriguez, and Bradford Burgess are all threats from beyond the arc and should see multiple open looks against Nevada's shoddy perimeter defense. 

Luke Babbitt is one of the nation's most overlooked freshmen. He is 6'9", averages 16.2 points per game and 7.4 rebounds per game, and shoots 46.6 percent from the floor, 82.3 percent from the line, and 43.3 percent from deep. He's talented enough to play with the big boys—he dropped 22 on UNC. 

VCU's standout sophomore, Larry Sanders, will have his hands full, but he is capable of restraining Babbitt's offensive game. 

Homecourt advantage has been a non-factor for the Wolpack this year—they are a middling 8-6 at the Lawlor Events Center. VCU is 6-5 on the road, but they should be able to leave Reno with a win.

Prediction: VCU wins 76-68

I will try to have predictions for the rest of BracketBuster Weekend up by tomorrow's games.

Frustration is the most suitable word to describe the emotions of the Jaspers and their fans. After starting the season 7-3 with losses by two, three, and four points, Manhattan was defeated by 12 against American, 25 at La Salle, and 19 at Niagara. 

As a team, the Jaspers have been very inconsistent on offense, mostly for the worse. Until tonight, Chris Smith and Devon Austin hadn't led the team in scoring since Dec. 5. 

Tonight, the Jaspers' offense scored over 70 points for the first time since they scored 86 at Binghamton on December 20. 

Unfortunately, Niagara scored 93 points and defeated Manhattan, 93-74. 

The Purple Eagles are a bigger, stronger, and more aggressive team than the Jaspers, and Manhattan's weaknesses were exploited throughout the game.

Niagara forced a total of 19 turnovers and the Jaspers were too slow getting back on defense, which allowed the Purple Eagles to produce 33 points.

Niagara's size didn't affect Manhattan's ability to rebound the basketball—the Jaspers have managed to compete with larger teams on the glass this season—however, the size difference created more Manhattan fouls.

Going into tonight, the Jaspers fouled 18 times per game. Tonight, Manhattan fouled the Purple Eagles 26 times. Niagara is shooting 71.1 percent from the charity stripe this season, and they connected on 25 of their 32 foul shots tonight.

Every team will give up its share of points off of turnovers and foul shots, but the totals tonight were absolutely disgusting. You can't give up 58 points in that manner and expect to win the game. 

Defense was not the only problem that Manhattan dealt with tonight.

After shooting 18-of-36 from the floor in the first half, the Jaspers lost their touch and shot 10-of-36 in the second stanza. This is part of the inconsistency that was mentioned above. They finally got production from Austin and Smith, but the rest of the team didn't produce.

Manhattan has two must-win games against Canisius and Marist before hosting Siena. The Jaspers can't afford to lose to either the Golden Griffs or the Red Foxes because they don't want to get buried early in conference play. 

If the Jaspers lose two of these three games, frustrated Jaspers fans will need to realize that this team, constructed by Barry Rohrssen, will not be able to contend for the MAAC crown.

The MAAC has traditionally sent one team to the NCAA Tournament every season.

After upsetting Vanderbilt in last season's NCAA Tournament, Siena was the preseason favorite to represent the MAAC in 2009. The Saints returned all five starters, brought in two solid recruits, and saw sophomores Ryan Rossiter and Clarence Jackson improve during the summer.

Fran McCaffery made sure to bolster his non-conference schedule by competing in the Old Spice Classic and scheduling games at Pittsburgh and Kansas.

Unfortunately for the Saints, they have not won any of their big games. Losses to Tennessee, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, and Pittsburgh are making people wonder if the glass slipper actually fits on Siena's foot.

The two-point loss to a weak, rebuilding Wichita State was the worst for Siena.

If this was last season and Siena had lost by 14 to No. 12 Tennessee, nine to Oklahoma State, and 13 at No. 3 Pittsburgh, analysts would say that Siena has the ability to pull off a first round upset.

Higher expectations lead to bigger disappointments, so Siena has definitely been disappointing so far.

There is no doubt that Siena could pull off an upset if they are an 11, 12, or 13 seed in this season's tournament. They are still a very good team and have one last opportunity to prove their strength against Kansas.

However, their path to celebration on Selection Sunday will not be as easy as originally expected.

MAAC foes Niagara and Fairfield have been hot during the non-conference and have proven that they will compete with Siena for the MAAC crown.

Niagara did not receive the respect it deserved during the preseason because Charron Fisher, 2007-08's second-best scorer in the nation, graduated.

Too many people overlooked Bilal Benn and Rob Garrison, who were finally eligible to play for Joe Mihalich this season after transferring from Villanova and UConn respectively.

Last Sunday, the Purple Eagles upset South Florida, 70-55, on the road and post a 7-2 season record. Their two losses were at Villanova and against Akron. Niagara trailed 'Nova by four points midway through the second half but hit a dry spell and allowed the Wildcats to take a double-digit lead.

Along with the two Big East transfers, Tyrone Lewis is the leader of the team. The junior guard is averaging 17.3 points per game, 4.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and is fifth in the country with 3.3 steals per game.

Benn is nearly averaging a double-double with 13 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Garrison is third in scoring for the Purple Eagles with 11.7 points per game.

Niagara is fairly deep with key contributors Benson Egemonye, Anthony Nelson, Demetrius Williamson, and Kamau Gordon.

As a team, Niagara is very well-rounded. The Purple Eagles average 77.2 points for, 64.9 points allowed, 39.7 rebounds, and 10.7 steals per game.

As for Fairfield, they have won seven consecutive games and are the hottest team in the MAAC.

Like the Saints, the Stags returned most of their top talent from 2007-08. The scoring is equally distributed between Jon Han (12.8 ppg), Warren Edney (11.9 ppg), Greg Nero (11.1 ppg), Anthony Johnson (10.8 ppg), and Herbie Allen (8.3 ppg).

As a team, however, the Stags only outscore their opponents 69-67.8. This stat does not seem too impressive, but three of their first four games were blowout losses against Memphis, Virginia Tech, and Missouri. So, without those defeats, Fairfield would have a nicer looking margin of victory.

The Harbor Yard Arena is always a difficult place to play in the conference, and the Stags are already 5-0 in Bridgeport this season.

Fairfield is not the only tough home team in the MAAC. With the help of Ryan Thompson and Harris Mansell, Rider will be able to put up a fight with Siena, Niagara, and Fairfield. Even Manhattan has a chance to compete against the best of the MAAC.

The Jaspers return every key player from a team that upset Siena, 72-71, in Riverdale.

The season is still young, conference play is about two weeks away, and it is too early to tell who will be the last MAAC team standing in March. However, it is possible to say that Siena will not have as easy of a trip to the NCAA Tournament as expected.