Edwin Diaz

The New York Mets may want to find additional help to improve their roster for 2023, but the organization's top priority this offseason will be retaining its own key free agents.

Per SNY.tv's Andy Martino, the Mets are "prioritizing" re-signing Edwin Díaz and Brandon Nimmo over their other free agents.

It's interesting that Diaz and Nimmo appear to be at the top of New York's internal free-agent list.

Jacob deGrom could also hit free agency if he opts out of his deal as expected. He pitched well down the stretch with a 3.08 ERA in 11 starts, but he's also 34 and has only thrown 156.1 innings over the past two seasons combined.

Both Díaz and Nimmo figure to be two of the most sought-after free agents. Nimmo is arguably the best outfielder on the open market after Aaron Judge. The 29-year-old hit .274/.367/.433 last season. He posted on-base percentages over .400 three times in four years from 2018 to 2021.

Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported last week the Colorado Rockies have Nimmo on their "preliminary wish list" of players, with contract estimates in the range of $115 million-$120 million over five years.

Even though it sounds like the Mets plan to make an aggressive push to keep Nimmo, general manager Billy Eppler told Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of The Show Podcast they would be comfortable moving Starling Marte from right to center field.

Díaz's free agency coincides with his career year in 2022. The right-hander had a 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 118 strikeouts and 32 saves in 61 appearances.

Teams have been more diligent about not spending big money on relievers. Only six closers had a salary of at least $10 million in 2022, including Díaz ($10.2 million).

Heyman reported last month that Díaz is looking to "break new ground" with his contract. Aroldis Chapman's five-year, $86 million deal with the New York Yankees is the richest deal for a closer in MLB history, per Heyman.

The Mets already project to have a $238.9 million payroll next season, per Spotrac, and owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend big in order to give the team a chance to win a World Series.

New York finished the 2022 season with 101 wins, second-most in franchise history. It lost in the NL Wild Card Series to the San Diego Padres.

The electricity in Citi Field as the trumpets of "Narco" by Blasterjaxx and Timmy Trumpet exploded over the PA system, his 118 strikeouts, an ERA of just 1.31, and 32 saves all defined Edwin Díaz in 2022.

Arguably the most captivating closer in baseball, the 28-year-old was a major part of New York's 100-win season, all while throwing just two different pitches, his arsenal being small but effective.

His ability to stunt offense, silence bats and close things out for the Mets built confidence in the team and management. The theatricality of his walk-up only served to spark excitement in the ballpark.

For all that Díaz accomplished in 2022, a season in which he transformed into the best closer in MLB, the Mets must prioritize his contract and ensure he returns to an organization still chasing its first World Series title since 1986.

High Risk, High Reward

There is reason to be hesitant in regards to paying Díaz a huge amount of money.

There is no guarantee that he can replicate the season he put together in 2022. We have seen closers rewarded based on expected output, only to fall into mediocrity and never quite reach the levels they had prior.

Aroldis Chapman and Craig Krimble come to mind.

Maybe Díaz falls into that discussion, and Mets fans lament the time the franchise gave a closer a ton of money that could have been better utilized elsewhere.

Or, maybe Díaz continues to ride his highly effective two-pitch arsenal to success. Perhaps he stomps to the mound, strikes six batters out in a row and fuels the Mets to the postseason success that eluded them this year.

If that is the case, New York should feel very good about its future.

Díaz had a lights-out 2022, striking out 17.13 batters per nine innings and allowing less than half of a home run in that same frame. Only two of his 10 inherited runners scored, proving he could pitch his way out of a jam and prevent the other team from capitalizing on hits.

He has great control, too, managing just two wild pitches in the 62 innings in which he appeared.

He won 75 percent of his games and had a minuscule ERA of 1.31, good for second in the Majors.

Díaz was the closest thing to a sure thing there was when it came time to close out a victory. He has earned the contract he will inevitably get; and if he can play up to it, the Mets are going to be in every game and face fewer scenarios in which a lead is blown and a win evaporates before their eyes.

There will be some who question whether the Mets should save that potential $100 million and throw it in the direction of underrated hitter Brandon Nimmo or ace Jacob deGrom.

Nimmo was a solid hitter and a major part of what the 100-win team looked to do offensively. He may not be a power hitter who is going to push the ball deep and out of the park, but his on-base percentage was a very good .367 and his OPS was .800, placing him among the top 50 hitters in the league.

He will be difficult to replace and the Mets should weigh the possibility of finding a way to sign Díaz and bring Nimmo back.

This brings us to the elephant in the room: Jacob deGrom and what will likely be a monster contract.

There is an argument to be made that the 34-year-old should take precedence this offseason. When healthy, he is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation and a guy who has earned a check with lots of zeros and commas.

Unfortunately for him, the key phrase in that statement is "when healthy."

When looking at the many pieces the Mets front office will have to maneuver to field a team best suited to win a title, it will have to weigh whether deGrom is worth the $40 million AAV, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, that he could attract from potential suitors.

Without doubt, he is the best pitcher available and has more than earned the right to opt-out of his current deal and test the market. In doing so, though, he is likely to bring an end to his run in Gotham because the idea of giving that sort of money to a guy who has only pitched in 74.7 innings over the last three years is hardly appealing.

Are the Mets likely to find someone like deGrom this offseason? No, but they could find a cheaper option who will appear more consistently and can score a few quality wins. Noah Syndergaard, Nathan Eovaldi and even Mets free-agent-to-be Chris Bassitt fit that description.

At the very least, an option who can put his side in a position for the $100 million man Díaz to march to the mound and earn another win for a team whose World Series aspirations have never been higher.

Coming off a stellar 2022 season, New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz is reportedly hoping to land a game-changing contract when free agency opens.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Diaz is looking to reset the market for closers with a record-breaking deal.

"Word is he’s looking to 'break new ground' off his amazing season, and presumably that means higher than Liam Hendriks’ record $18 million closer salary, which seems likely," Heyman wrote. "The Mets understandably do have him as a priority among their seven outstanding free agents."

Diaz established himself as one of the best closers in the majors this season with 32 saves, a 1.31 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP and 118 strikeouts in 62.0 innings pitched. He gained popularity this season from his signature walkout song.

Heyman noted that Diaz could benefit from a thin closer market, as Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen is the only proven veteran expected to be available on the open market this year. He also listed Diaz as the top priority for the Mets in free agency, over the likes of starting pitchers Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker.

Last month, ESPN's Jeff Passan said on The Pat McAfee Show that Diaz could "become the first 100-million-dollar closer." He noted that the 28-year-old is a marketable star who can increase interest from fans.

"I think part of it [is] when you factor in, if you're a baseball team, the idea that you can market your closer, that you can market the ninth inning as something that everybody wants to watch," Passan said. "I want someone to come up with an app that says, 'The closer is coming in right now, I want to watch him shove for one inning.'"

The Mets had a strong regular season but fell short of their title aspirations when the San Diego Padres bounced them in the National League Wild Card round. Retaining Diaz would go a long way to ensuring the team is back in position to aim for a better finish next season.

The New York Mets won 101 games this season and made the playoffs for the first time since 2016. However, a 2-1 series loss to the San Diego Padres has shifted New York's focus to the offseason.

Free agency figures to be a major focus for the Mets and franchise owner Steve Cohen, and the organization has a huge decision to make regarding star pitcher Jacob deGrom.

The two-time Cy Young-winner has a $30.5 million player option for the 2023 season and has stated previously that he intends to opt out. Following Sunday's loss, deGrom said that he's unsure what the future holds.

"I'm not going to discuss any of that," deGrom said, per Pat Ragazzo of FanNation. "I have no clue."

The Mets should have a clue. DeGrom is one of the biggest names headed to the free-agent market and can likely earn a substantial raise by opting out and signing a new deal. New York is reportedly willing to offer that next contract, but only if it makes sense financially.

"Word out of Mets camp is that club owner Steve Cohen and his baseball people will indeed try to re-sign deGrom but aim to do it within reason," Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote.

This is the right approach for New York and a stance to which Cohen needs to stick. While deGrom is a star and one of the game's best pitchers when healthy, overpaying to keep him doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

And deGrom is expected to command a lot of money on the open market. Heyman polled three unnamed agents on deGrom's expected value. The low end of estimates was three years and $125 million. That's $41.6 million per year for a 34-year-old who has struggled to stay healthy in recent years.

Over the past three seasons, deGrom has made only 38 starts. As Heyman pointed out, deGrom pitched just 4.3 percent of the innings in 2022. Yet demand for deGrom will be high because of what he can do when at 100 percent.

Heyman reported last month that the Texas Rangers are expected to pursue deGrom if he opts out as expected. The New York Yankees may also throw cash deGrom's way if they're unable to retain star slugger Aaron Judge.

"The Yankees figure to make Judge their No. 1 priority, but if they lose the slugger, anything can happen at that point, including the idea of pairing deGrom with Gerrit Cole atop the rotation," Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote.

The reality is that deGrom's price point could quickly soar past $42 million per season, and that's money Cohen would be wise to spend elsewhere—perhaps using it to lure Judge away from the cross-town Yankees.

"Judge would absolutely fit perfectly for what the Mets need," ESPN's Buster Olney said on Get Up. "Owner Steve Cohen knows that his team needs a big injection of power, and there's no bigger injection of power in baseball these days than Aaron Judge."

And even if the Mets don't chase a big name like Judge, they have plenty of other free-agent deals to address. Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz and Taijuan Walker are just a few of the impending free agents or opt-outs who should take precedence over an aging and injury-prone pitcher.

Cohen has not been shy about spending to build a contender, but he needs to be smart about how he spends this offseason. Paying to keep an everyday contributor like Nimmo or a 28-year-old closer like Díaz should be more important than paying deGrom's market value.

Now, if deGrom is willing to return on a slight pay bump, say $33 million per year, and the Mets can pay that and keep players like Nimmo and Díaz, then great. However, that feels extremely unlikely given the presumed market for the four-time All-Star.

Mets fans should expect New York to be active in free agency and to keep many of their impending free agents. They should also expect to see deGrom playing elsewhere in 2023. If the price to keep him doesn't make sense, letting him sign with the Yankees, the Rangers or elsewhere does.

New York Mets star Pete Alonso expects significant changes this offseason after the team's playoff loss to the San Diego Padres.

"It hurts. To be honest, it hurts," Alonso told reporters. "It's not just the losing. It's about the disbanding of the group."

The Mets could lose several key players to free agency this offseason, including closer Edwin Diaz and center fielder Brandon Nimmo. Ace pitcher Jacob deGrom has a player option and has said he plans to opt out, while fellow starters Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker can also opt for free agency.

Nimmo said after the game that he's "definitely interested in coming back," although deGrom refused to answer questions about his future.

"I'm not going to discuss any contract stuff," the two-time Cy Young Award winner said.

Diaz also didn't give any assurances he will return to the Mets next season.

"I hope the team comes to me quick to talk," he said. "I hope we got the best offer. We'll take the best offer for me and my family."

Alonso's response seems to indicate he's expecting several players to leave before next year.

The Mets finished 101-61, tied for the third-best record in the majors, but it could be hard to replicate without three-fifths of the starting rotation, an All-Star closer and leadoff hitter.

On the other hand, the organization is clearly willing to spend, finishing 2022 with the highest payroll in baseball. Even if the Mets are unable to re-sign their own players, they could be aggressive in free agency this winter.

With Max Scherzer returning for his second season with the team and Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte among those in the lineup, New York could remain a contention in 2023 and beyond.