Air Force Football

The NCAA post-season kicks off Dec. 19, with 33 games being played in a three-week span.

Seniors will get their last hurrah, and teams will attempt to end their season on the winning side, in the hopes of improving recruiting that follows afterwards. The Sportmeisters will preview each of the 33 games that lie ahead, and provide our predictions as well. Let’s get to it!

Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 31, 12:00 PM, Fort Worth, TX

Air Force Academy (7-5) vs. Houston Cougars (10-3)

About Air Force

The Falcons started their season off flying high, winning three of their first four games. Two losses by a combined six points dropped the Falcons to 3-3, but they bounced back, winning four of six to finish 7-5.

Though one might expect a team of Air Force cadets would pass the ball, that is not the case when they are 118th out of 120 in passing offense (82.33 yards per game).

Instead, the Air Force grinds it out using the triple option. Those options breed success, as the Air Force is third in NCAA FBS for rushing yards (273.58 yards a game).

The Falcons boast four players with over 300 yards rushing on the season, led by Junior FB Jared Tew, who has 797 yards and seven touchdowns as the first option. Sophomore RB Asher Clark is right behind him with 736 yards and five touchdowns.

When Clark needs a break, he is spelled by equally quick and shifty sophomore RB Savier Stephens, who has 417 yards and three touchdowns.

The Falcons do have speed, and it is a big reason for their defensive prowess. Tenth in NCAA FBS in overall defense (284.75 yards per game), Air Force is ninth in scoring defense (15.33 points per game), and first in passing defense (148.67 yards).

Sophomore DB Anthony Wright leads the team with four interceptions (two for touchdowns). He is a big reason Air Force is third in turnover margin (+1.42 per game). Senior LB John Falgout leads the undersized defense with 96 tackles and a sack.

About Houston

Three straight wins, including an upset over then No. 5 Oklahoma State, had the Cougars thinking big. An upset loss to UTEP ended those thoughts, but Houston bounced back to win five in a row.

They went 2-2 over their final four games, including a loss in the C-USA Championship, to sit at 10-3 on the year.

The nation’s number one offensive team (581.23 yards per game), they are also second in scoring offense (43.92 points per game).

Where does it all come from? A number one passing attack (450 yards per game). Despite critics calling him a “system QB” Junior Case Keenum made some hype for himself, with 5,410 yards and 43 touchdowns.

Three WRs all have over 900 receiving yards, with the potential for all three to be over 1,000 following the bowl game. Junior WR James Cleveland (1182 yards, 14 touchdowns),

Sophomore WR Patrick Edwards (990 yards, five touchdowns), and Sophomore WR Tyron Carrier (985 yards, seven touchdowns), give defense’s a number of fits when figuring out who to cover.

Houston’s defense doesn’t quite live up to the hype of the offense, ranking 108th in total defense (442.69 yards a game). Their rushing defense in itself is horrific, ranking 111th with 213.08 yards a game.

Three players on the defense have over 100 tackles, led by sophomore LB Marcus McGraw (133 tackles, four sacks). Following him is senior LB C.J. Cavness (126 tackles, 2.5 sacks), and sophomore DB Nick Saenz (101 tackles).

The Matchup

The Air Force is 8-10-1 in bowl games. They are currently on a three-game losing streak, after becoming bowl eligible the last two seasons.

Houston is 8-10-1 as well. This is their fifth straight bowl game, and they have lost four of their last five.

In a game worthy of a redux, these two teams met in the Armed Forces Bowl last season, with Houston squeaking by 34-28. This game is the first bowl game rematch since the Outback Bowl, which featured South Carolina and Ohio State in 2001 and 2002.

Undoubtedly, the big matchup in this game is the nation’s number one passing offense in Houston against the number one pass defense from Air Force.

However, Air Force’s rushing attack will gain huge chunks of yards using their option against Houston’s spotty rush defense. Last year, Air Force had 38 minutes of possession, and as long as the offense is on the field, Keenum can’t be a factor.

The Falcons will look to do the same. Of course, if Houston gets a few scores up early, Air Force could be in trouble, as a run-oriented attack will not do well playing from behind.

The Prediction

Air Force’s pass defense plays better than the 50th ranked team of last season, and the rushing attack eats minutes up from Keenum and the Cougar Offense. Air Force wins the rematch, 35-28.

By Ryan of The Sportmeisters

A year ago when Air Force accepted a bid to the 2008 Armed Forces Bowl, Falcons coach Troy Calhoun noted that “if we could go to this bowl 10 straight years, we would be very, very pleased.”

The Falcons are one step closer.

Air Force on Sunday accepted an invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl for the third year in a row. And for the second year in a row, the Falcons will face Houston of Conference-USA.

Including a 2008 regular season meeting, this will be Air Force’s third game against Houston in the last two seasons. And it will be the Falcons’ fifth game in the Dallas-Fort Worth area in the last three seasons.

“Fort Worth has become a second home to us,” Air Force athletic director Hans Mueh said. “And we’re definitely excited to come back.”

Not all Air Force fans are likely to share his excitement. They probably would have liked a different setting for the bowl or, at the very least, a different opponent.

But if—as they say in boxing—styles make fights, the Falcons' and Cougars' contrasting styles should make for a game fans will want to see.

Houston boasts the nation’s top passing attack, averaging 450.0 aerial yards per game—nearly 70 more than the second-ranked team. Air Force, meanwhile, leads the nation in passing defense, allowing just 148.7 passing yards per game.

The Falcons, of course, are coming off their worst defensive performance of the season. In their regular season finale at BYU on Nov. 21, they gave up a season-high 498 yards, including 377 through the air. But while those stats likely will have the Cougars licking their chops, Air Force looks at its game with Houston as a chance to make up for the performance at BYU.

“It definitely gives us a chance at redemption to show what this team is really about,” senior nose guard Ben Garland said.

Still, Air Force’s defense will be facing its toughest test of the season. Houston quarterback Case Keenum has completed an astonishing 71.0 percent of his 659 passes for a nation-leading 5,449 yards, a nation-leading 43 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. And he has plenty of options when he drops back to pass, as the Cougars are “absolutely loaded at the skill positions,” Air Force coach Troy Calhoun said.

“It’s as good a passing attack as you’re going to see in college football,” he added.

So can Air Force even slow the Cougars?

The Falcons have as talented and athletic a secondary as they’ve had in about a decade. And Garland’s strength, size and ability up front should allow them to play nickel and dime without getting gashed by the run.

But the Falcons’ best defense will be long, time-consuming drives by its offense. One of the major reasons Air Force was so dominated by BYU was its offense’s inability to pick up first downs and sustain drives. So look for Air Force to take its time and pound the ball at a Houston defense that ranks 112th in the nation against the run.

And when the Cougars do have the ball, the battle between Keenum and Co. and the Falcons’ defense will probably make fans forget that they’re watching a repeat.

“We love this opportunity to be able to go against such a powerful offense,” Garland said. “They have great weapons, and it gives us the ability to show what our defense can do.”

After Saturday's 38-21 loss to BYU, it looks to me like either the Armed Forces or New Mexico Bowls for the Falcons.

Barring a shocking upset loss by TCU in its regular season finale next weekend (at home against woeful New Mexico), the Horned Frogs are heading to a Bowl Championship Series bowl game. Utah and BYU, which will finish second and third in the Mountain Conference in some order, likely will go to the Las Vegas and Poinsettia Bowls.

So the Armed Forces and New Mexico Bowls, which share the third pick, will fight over Air Force. I know the New Mexico Bowl badly wants the Falcons (it has for the last couple years). But Armed Forces Bowl reps aren’t opposed to taking them for the third straight year.

For Air Force? Well, I’m not sure heading to the same bowl site for the third straight season is the best situation for fans. But the Falcons played at New Mexico this year, so if they go to the New Mexico Bowl, it will be their second trip to Albuquerque in four months.

Recruiting-wise, it’s a no-brainer. Of the 44 players listed as offensive and defensive starters and backups heading into Saturday’s game, 14 are from Texas. Zero are from New Mexico.

—Junior quarterback Ben Cochran’s numbers weren’t too pretty in Saturday's loss to BYU (14 carries, 47 yards; 5-for-18 passing for 88 yards, one touchdown pass to Josh Cousins and one interception), but I thought he did really well considering how difficult a situation he faced.

The guy had played only garbage snaps this season—and remember, he was playing safety in the preseason. But he came into the game in a tough environment with his team trailing the 19th-ranked team in the country 17-0 and handled himself well.

“I think he played very well,” junior fullback Jared Tew said. “Coming up in a big situation like that against a Top 25 team, with not that much experience and right when he came in making that big play to Cousins, that was huge and definitely gave us a spark. He definitely stepped up and we know we can count on him.”

—BYU quarterback Max Hall was tremendous on Saturday. I thought there were times when Air Force had good coverage on receivers, but he put the ball in about the only two-foot by two-foot space that it could be caught. He completed 19 of his first 22 passes, and one of the incompletions was a drop while another was one he threw away intentionally. That’s astounding.

I also like the passion with which he plays. He’s fired up, and he loves to play the game and he loves to win — clearly, he’s won more than any BYU quarterback ever. And that’s something.

So with all that said, he needs to cut out some of the taunting and celebrating and the complaining to the refs that he did after the first touchdown was called back. Plain and simple, he’s too good a player to have to act like that.

—After writing an article this week about how Air Force was on pace to set the record for fewest turnovers in a season and that it hadn’t turned the ball over more than twice in a game all season, I wrote in the blog about how nobody believes in jinxes more than me.

Sure enough, the Falcons turned the ball over four times against BYU, their most in a game since late October, 2007. So, to Air Force fans, sorry for the jinx.

For the second season in a row, Air Force showed signs that it’s close to breaking into the Mountain West Conference’s elite.

The Falcons took defending league champ Utah to overtime before falling, and they stuck closer to fourth-ranked TCU than any of the Horned Frogs' other 10 victims.

And for the second season in a row, the final game of the regular season showed how far the Falcons still have to go.

In 2008, it was a humbling 44-10 drubbing at TCU.

This season, it was Saturday’s 38-21 drubbing at BYU.

Don’t let the final score fool you. The Cougars were up 24-0 in the first half and 31-7 early in the third quarter. This one wasn’t close—and that was surprising.

Yes, BYU has owned Air Force historically (the Cougars have a 24-6 all-time record against Air Force) and especially lately (Saturday’s loss was the Falcons’ sixth in a row to BYU—and all have come by at least two touchdowns).

But Air Force seemed to match up better with the Cougars this season because of its standout defense and secondary (the Falcons led the nation in pass defense heading into the game).

Not only that, players seemed to be ready to beat the Cougars, and it didn’t seem like bluster. I could be wrong, but I usually can tell when players are just saying they can compete with a heavily favored team and when they actually believe they can compete with a heavily favored team. I really think the Falcons believed.

That’s what made it surprising—again, not that Air Force lost, but the manner in which the Falcons were dominated.

“I was very surprised,” junior fullback Jared Tew said. “I thought we were going to come out strong and right off the bat it seemed like they had our number and we pretty much weren’t playing our game.”

“We’re a lot better than we played (Saturday),” junior cornerback Reggie Rembert said. “So, yeah, I’m definitely kind of shocked.”

The one upside of a loss like this is the Falcons still are a relatively young team. Players can learn from mistakes, and they should remember the sting of this blowout. Maybe in the future they can find a way to compete with the Cougars.

“It’s not going to be easy, it’s going to be hard,” Air Force coach Troy Calhoun said of catching up to the top teams in the conference. “But it’s doable, and it should be doable. That is to be a program that gets up and (will) go play in a game like this and be able to take a game like this right down to the wire and find a way to win it.”

There was plenty for Air Force to celebrate after last Saturday's 45-17 drubbing of UNLV.

The offense looked arguably the best it has all season, rolling up 557 yards. The Falcons were balanced (for them) with quarterback Tim Jefferson completing 8-of-13 passes for 126 yards. And the ground game was dominant, with the Falcons picking up 6.1 yards per carry.

The defense was not quite as impenetrable as it has been at times this season, but it still limited a dangerous UNLV passing attack to just 135 yards.

Kicker Erik Soderberg continued his outstanding breakout season by nailing a 35-yarder, giving him 20 field goals this season, the second-most in a season by an academy kicker.

And Air Force’s 15 seniors walked out of Falcon Stadium for the last time as players triumphant.

And yet … not to snow on the Falcons’ celebration … but that was a pretty inept UNLV squad.

I’m not saying that to diminish a standout performance but to highlight the following: Air Force has held serve against the teams it finished above last season and was picked to finish above this season. But it has yet to beat a team it wasn’t “supposed to” beat.

The Falcons have one more chance Saturday at Provo. And they’re looking forward to it.

“A huge game,” senior strong safety Chris Thomas said of the clash with BYU. “Been looking forward to that game all year.”

And there’s plenty at stake. With a victory, the Falcons all of a sudden would seem to have a shot at the Poinsettia Bowl and maybe even the Las Vegas Bowl (if BYU went on to beat Utah the following week and TCU, as expected, ends up in the BCS).

More importantly, Air Force would finish no worse than third in the Mountain West Conference. Instead of thinking about the Falcons as “the best of the rest,” we’d have to re-define “The Big Three.”

“This next week is huge for us as a program,” Thomas said. “If we can play well and get a ‘W,’ I think it would show that this program has definitely taken some strides forward.”

* Air Force made two plays of more than 30 yards on Saturday against Colorado State—as many as it had made in its previous seven games against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents.

While Air Force is a grind-it-out squad, it never hurts to pick up some big chunks of yardage.

“There are times you’ve got to grind and make three and four yards on carries, but you just don’t only have to wear your mudder or your plodder shoes,” Air Force coach Troy Calhoun said. “You can wear your other shoes too, where you get up on your toes and go a little bit.”

* Sophomore kicker Erik Soderberg has made seven field goals in a row and continues to be a pleasant surprise for the Falcons.

Against Colorado State, Soderberg drilled a career-long 50-yard field goal as time expired in the first half, giving the Falcons a 17-10 advantage at the break after the Rams had scored 10 straight points.

“It was a good hit,” Calhoun said. “It was a big play, to send you into the half when you’re up by seven and you’re receiving the kickoff in the second half.”

Soderberg also nailed a 30-yarder, but he missed an extra point for the first time this season.

* Part of the reason Air Force looked better and was able to pick up 382 yards was because players were making things happen with the ball in their hands.

There was Jared Tew, breaking out of arm tackles. There was Asher Clark, making a spin move to avoid a defender. There was Jonathan Warzeka, beating defenders to the edge.

“I think we probably broke some tackles today, which we haven’t done a lot of,” Calhoun said. “I think by and large, you look here over about the last month or so, we’ve basically gained yards that were there and that’s it. And what we’ve got to do, we’ve got to have guys that gain more than what’s there.”

Saturday, they did.

It’s kind of funny to talk about a breakout passing performance when a team completes seven passes and gains just more than 100 yards through the air.

But a breakout performance it was for Air Force’s aerial attack when quarterback Tim Jefferson completed 7-of-12 passes for 111 yards and two scores in Saturday’s 34-16 victory over Colorado State at Hughes Stadium.

Because remember this: In the Falcons’ previous four games, they completed just 24-of-54 passes and averaged 46.4 yards through the air. That’s not good enough. Even for an option team.

Air Force never will be Texas Tech, or anything close to it. But the Falcons do need to take advantage of the play-action opportunities their running game provides. And they need to do enough through the air to keep opponents honest. They did both Saturday.

Jefferson, back in the starting lineup, looked the best he has all year. He played like he had something to prove, considering Connor Dietz had seemed to have taken over the starting QB role with his performance last week (before it was found Dietz had broken a bone in his hand and will miss at least three weeks).

So, did Jefferson have something to prove?

“I don’t know,” Jefferson said. “I know that we’ve been trading the starts, and it kind of hurt us when (Dietz) went down because he’s a great player. I don’t think I had anything to prove, I just wanted to go out there and play, and I got the chance.”

Jefferson ran the offense with a good tempo and showed off his great feel for the option. Jefferson’s pitches always lead backs so they are full speed when they catch them. And he has an innate ability to hold the ball until the last possible moment, often influencing defenders to come off the pitch man to stop him.

Still, Jefferson made the key play of the game with a pass, hitting Kevin Fogler for 34 yards down the right sideline on a 3rd-and-18 early in the second half.

While the throw and the catch both were impressive, I was particularly impressed that Air Force coach Troy Calhoun made the call.

So many times this season, we’ve seen Air Force run up the middle in 3rd-and-long situations—especially when it’s backed up in its own territory. More than anything else, simply calling for a pass showed Calhoun had the confidence in Jefferson to make a play. That spoke volumes.

“It was in the game plan,” Jefferson said of the pass. “Coaches told us we were going to have a chance to hit some shots because their secondary wasn’t that strong.  I was glad that he made the call and glad that he had confidence in us.”

It’s easy to make the argument that the 2009 Air Force football season—to date—has been a disappointment.

All you have to do is look at the Falcons’ record (4-4) and note that three of the losses could have been wins if just a few things went differently.  So, yeah, when you’re a handful of plays from 7-1 and a probable Top 25 ranking, there’s plenty of reason to be disappointed about being 4-4.

It’s also easy to argue that the program is slipping.

All you have to do is note that Air Force has lost seven of 11 games dating back to last season.  Yep, that’s pretty damning.

But while those arguments are easy, they also fail to look at the big picture.

When one does that, the argument that comes into focus is that the Falcons are far ahead of schedule through two and two-thirds seasons under Troy Calhoun and his staff.  Because when you look at the big picture, you consider the rebuilding project Calhoun and his assistants had on their hands when they took over prior to the 2007 season.

And make no mistake: It was a rebuilding project.

That reality gets skewed big-time by what Calhoun and his staff did their first season.  The Falcons upset Utah and TCU in the second and third games, respectively, went 9-3 in the regular season, finished second in the Mountain West Conference, and earned a bowl bid for the first time since 2002.

But there were plenty of elements in place for a turnaround season.

First was a large, talented and hungry senior class that was experienced, ready to believe in a new system, and desperate to win.

Second was a schedule that set up favorably.  Air Force caught Utah when it had its top three skill players injured.  It caught TCU when it was without its top running back and when then-freshman quarterback Andy Dalton was young and inexperienced.  And it faced both when the systems and schemes used by Calhoun and his staff still were somewhat foreign to opponents.

But Air Force’s 2007 senior class was an anomaly.  And when it graduated, there was a big drop-off in the academy’s talent pool thanks to the erosion of its recruiting efforts.

If you don’t believe me, just remember the number five.

When Calhoun took over, he was stunned to look at a list of the 55 players who Air Force brought to the academy for official visits early in 2005.  Remember, official visit recruits are your top guys.  And just five from that list still were with the program two-and-a-half years later.  That recruiting class helps make up the Falcons’ current senior class.

Clearly, there were some standout players in last season’s senior class, and there are a bunch in this season’s senior class—the offensive line is made up entirely of seniors, and the defense is anchored by senior nose guard Ben Garland.  But there’s not a whole lot of depth. And it’s easy to see—just watch a practice—that the level of talent in the freshman and sophomore classes far exceeds what the Falcons have in their junior and senior classes.

Calhoun has said his program will be best when 38 of his 44 offensive and defensive starters and backups are juniors and seniors and when it has 22 seniors on the roster.  Heading into tomorrow’s game at Colorado State, just 26 of the 44 offensive and defensive starters and backups are juniors and seniors and there are only 15 seniors on the roster.

So if 4-4 is disappointing and the fact the Falcons have lost seven of 11 games dating back to last season suggests they’re going in the wrong direction, remember the number five and take a step back to look at the big picture.

One of the most athletically impressive plays I’ve seen by an Air Force player since covering the team was made Saturday by Jon Davis.

Davis, the Falcons’ sophomore free safety, came on a blitz with Utah facing a third-and-10 from its own 24-yard line early in the second quarter. Davis came right up the middle on a full sprint and left his feet to disrupt a potential throw.

Utah quarterback Terrance Cain did not throw, but Davis gathered himself in midair and crashed into Cain for a sack.

Wow.

Davis also looked pretty good returning a punt 35 yards. He was in because Reggie Rembert was out.

Speaking of Rembert, there were bunch of hard hits in Saturday’s game.

Rembert was on the receiving end of two of them, both on kickoff returns in the second half.

It looked on a replay as if Rembert might have been unconscious for a moment before he hit the ground on the first one. And he didn’t return to the game after the second. He will be held out of Monday's practice as a precaution.

A lot of weird plays Saturday too.

First was the fumble that resulted in Utah’s first touchdown. Cain went right on an option, was tackled and lost the ball. Utah’s Eddie Wide, who had been the pitch man on the play, barely had to break stride to scoop up the ball. And he raced 44 yards for a touchdown.

But was Cain down before the fumble?

I saw Air Force coach Troy Calhoun looking up at the scoreboard, hoping to see a replay that would let him know if he should challenge the play. But before a replay was shown, the Utes attempted their extra point.

“I never saw one,” Calhoun said of a replay on the scoreboard. “I kept looking up there at the board, and to their credit (they didn't show one). At a good place, that’s the way you do it.”

It was hard to tell from the angles we got on the television replays, but it looked to me like Cain was down.

Then there was the tipped punt.

Utah was punting from deep in its own territory, and its punter, Sean Sellwood, was clobbered. Air Force avoided a roughing the kicker penalty because refs said the ball was tipped.

Davis said after the game that he got his right hand on it. I believe him, but how the heck did that ball travel like 60 yards in the air after it was tipped? If Davis hadn’t touched it it might have flown out of Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Senior punter Brandon Geyer is putting together an all-conference kind of season. He continued his strong play Saturday, averaging 41.7 yards on seven punts, and pinning three inside the Utah 20-yard line.

And how about his punt on Air Force’s first possession of the second half? He kicked it from just inside his own 40-yard line, it flew high and deep and appeared as if it would role into the end zone (Utah’s returner thought as much, letting it land and getting out of the way).

But the ball landed at about the four-yard line, bounced pretty much sideways and was downed at the three.

It was like watching a Tiger Woods pitching wedge hit a green and check up at the flag-stick.

A year ago, Utah totally dominated its game against Air Force statistically, but the Falcons hung tough. And the Utes did not pull away until scoring a touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

Saturday, Air Force out-played Utah and had an advantage in just about every statistical category…but still lost.

It’s been one of those seasons for the Falcons. In each of their four games against top-flight opponents, they’ve lost in heartbreaking fashion. By seven at Minnesota in a game they seemed to be in control of through most of three quarters. By three in overtime at Navy in a game that will continue to sting Falcon fans for a while. By three to a TCU team that absolutely destroyed BYU in Provo Saturday. And, of course, in overtime to Utah, 23-16.

“They just keep getting harder and harder. They’re really tough to take,” Air Force quarterback Connor Dietz said. “This one was extremely hard just because everybody gave everything they had and left it on the field. They just keep getting harder and harder to take, so hopefully we won’t have to take any more.”

The Falcons have three straight games in which they should be favored—at Colorado State this coming Saturday, and then at home against Army and woeful UNLV. Then comes a trip to Provo to face the Cougars.

An upset of one of the Big Three in the Mountain West Conference would be nice. And if Saturday’s game against TCU is any indication, the Cougars are vulnerable.

More importantly, however, the Falcons can’t slip against the teams they should beat. They’ve done a good job—so far—of not letting heartbreaking losses to good teams keep them down.

But this is four devastating losses now. And, as Dietz said, they’re “getting harder and harder.”

The Falcons coaching staff will have a tough task in trying to get the team back off the mat—again—for next weekend in Fort Collins.