Northwestern Basketball

Wildcat fans, it's time to receive a reality check. The Northwestern Wildcats will not appear in the NCAA Tournament this year.

Northwestern started the season off with an impressive 11-3 record with the three losses coming against ranked opponents in Baylor, Ohio State and Creighton. Since, the Wildcats have fallen to a 6-9 record pushing them to the bottom of the Big Ten standings.

Yes, the 'Cats beat the No. 7 ranked Spartans of Michigan State away 81-74 on Jan. 14 and went down to the wire with No. 13 Michigan twice (Jan 11 loss 66-64 OT and Feb 21 loss 67-55 OT) and contested No. 11 Ohio State for 39:53 before Buckeye Jared Sullinger got the game-winning lay-up in a 75-73 loss, but it's not good enough.

According to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi, Northwestern is one of the last four in the tournament with Xavier, VCU, Oregon, N.C. State, Miami, St. Joseph's, St. Louis and Colorado getting their bubbles popped.

Sitting here at my computer I am shocked the Wildcats are even considered a bubble team. Are the 'Cats getting a sympathy vote because they've never been to the dance? Let's compare the Wildcats with the three teams I have above them.

Team                                    RPI               SOS                 Record (conference record)

Northwestern Wildcats           51 (.5777)       10                   17-12 (7-10 Big Ten)

Key Wins: Nov. 17 LSU 88-82, Nov 20 Seton Hall 80-73, Jan 14 #7 Michigan State 81-74

Bad Losses: Jan 4 Illinois 57-56, Jan 22 Minnesota 75-52

Against Top 50 RPI: 2-10

Miami Hurricanes                  52 (.5776)       32                    17-11 (8-7 ACC)

Key Wins: Feb 4 Duke 78-74, Feb 26 Florida State 78-62

Bad Losses: Nov 25 Ole Miss 64-61, Feb 21 Maryland 75-70

Against Top 50 RPI: 2-6

St. Louis Billikens            30 (.5991)       97                     23-6 (11-4 A-10)

Key Wins: Nov 20 Washington 77-64, Feb 8 St. Josephs 72-60, Feb 28 Xavier 70-59

Bad Losses: Dec 31 New Mexico 64-60, Jan 11 Temple 72-67

Against Top 50 RPI: 1-2

St. Joseph's Hawks              55 (.5762)       44                    19-12 (9-7 A-10)

Key Wins: Dec 10 Creighton 80-71, Jan 25 Dayton 77-63, Feb 25 Temple 82-72

Bad Losses: Jan 7 Charlotte 57-52, Jan 28 Temple 78-60, Feb 8 St. Louis 72-60

Against Top 50 RPI: 2-5

I firmly believe these three teams I've mentioned are a better fit for the "big dance" rather than the 'Cats. In all likelihood, the Wildcats MUST win against Iowa and make a solid run through the Big Ten tournament.

Let's say Northwestern wins against Iowa. The victory will put Northwestern as a seven seed in the Big Ten tournament. As the Big Ten stands right now, the seventh-seeded Wildcats will square off against 10th-seeded Minnesota (if they beat Nebraska).

The Wildcats have had their struggles against the Golden Gophers this season. If the Wildcats win, they will be pitted against the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten, which will be either #10 Ohio State or #13 Michigan. Most likely. the Wildcats will lose this game.

With a projected record of 19-13 (wins against Iowa and Minnesota, loss to Ohio State or Michigan) the Wildcats will find themselves with a high seed in the NIT.

Yes, I have taken the account that the Wildcats play in the toughest conference in the NCAA and their strength of schedule (SOS) is 10th in the nation, but their play of late has been miserable. 

The 'Cats choked again, and heartbreak will once again present itself in Evanston, Ill., as the Wildcats just miss getting a ticket to the "big dance."  

All stats are from CBS sports.com http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report

With only two regular season games remaining before the Big Ten Tournament, the Wildcats are still clinging to the hope that they will earn Northwestern’s first ever NCAA Tournament berth.  On Wednesday, they host Ohio State at Welsh-Ryan Arena in a crucial rematch. 

The last time the two teams played was an embarrassing 33-point blowout in which the Buckeyes pulled down 19 more rebounds than the ‘Cats.  It was only one of three games this season that Northwestern logged more turnovers than assists. 

Heading into this game, Northwestern is coming off a less than stellar performance in a one-point victory against the bottom-feeding Nittany Lions. Ohio State has lost three of its past five games and is showing vulnerability. 

However, Ohio State’s recent inconsistency has dropped the team in the rankings, so a loss here for the ‘Cats cannot be shrugged off merely as a game in which they had no shot. 

Furthermore, Northwestern is solidly on the bubble, and in the case of upsets in mid-major tournaments, unpredicted teams receiving bids might just push Northwestern out of the Tournament.  If the Wildcats want to guarantee themselves a spot at the Dance, they need to beat Ohio State and move themselves off the bubble. 

To find that win, Northwestern must rely on its star player.  John Shurna is leading the Big Ten in scoring, and he is the conference’s only player turning in over 20 ppg.

The past several weeks of Big Ten play have seen "Mr. Consistent" at his finest, delivering on both the offensive and defensive ends.  Against Minnesota on February 18 he broke Northwestern’s scoring record, and he can be the first Wildcat ever to break the 2000 point mark if he continues scoring at his current rate. 

As Shurna is quick to point out, he could not do it without his teammates.  Dave Sobolewski is the teammate that has stepped up recently and looks anything but a freshman. 

On the year he is averaging 35.6 minutes per game, 9.2 ppg, is shooting 38.1 percent from behind the arc and 74.7 percent from the line, and is leading the Big Ten with a 2.9 assist to turnover ratio. 

Sobolewski recently poured in 22 against Minnesota and 23 against Iowa and is developing into a serious offensive threat. 

However, the Buckeyes also have a weapon at guard who needs to be contained.  William Buford added 28 points in their last meeting, and Sobolewski will need to force him into tough shots in order for the ‘Cats to have a chance.

On defense, it is even more important that the man in the middle, Jared Sullinger, is stopped.  Northwestern is consistently outscored in the paint, and Sullinger has the potential to rip apart the Wildcats’ defense. 

Bill Carmody should forgo his smaller lineup and start Davide Curletti to both slow Sullinger and also provide size in the middle to battle for rebounds.  Northwestern is by far the worst rebounding team in the Big Ten, and the ‘Cats have no chance in this one if they allow Ohio State, averaging 6.6 rpg more than the 'Cats, second chance opportunities. 

In addition to focusing on the Buckeyes’ strengths, Carmody needs to prepare his team to utilize its own strong points. 

Northwestern is second in the conference in 3-point attempts as well as second in 3-point field goal percentage.  Ohio State is second to last in attempts and ninth in percent made, so the ‘Cats must dominate from behind the arc. 

Also, the charity stripe will be a battlefield in this contest.  Neither team is shooting very well from the line, but Welsh-Ryan has seen the worst free throw shooting from conference opponents out of any Big Ten arena. 

Northwestern needs to hit the shots it is given: threes and free throws.  Carmody also cannot rely too heavily on the 1-3-1 defense, or threes in the corners and big men down low will burn Northwestern. 

Factors that no stat can ever predict often make the difference in college basketball, especially at this point in the season.  The ‘Cats need this game, but if they really want it, then they will have a lot to prove on their home court on senior night.

Let me preface this article by saying that I hope I am dead wrong about this.

Though I’m not originally from Chicago, I have had no problem adopting Northwestern as my local basketball team.  I have watched most of their Big Ten games on TV and have made the trip up the Red/Purple Line to Evanston a couple times to see them in person this season. 

I feel I have accumulated a pretty significant sample size of Wildcat games watched, including last night’s agonizing one-point theft of a win at last-place Penn State. 

Northwestern appeared to have been bailed out by a questionable, un-Big Ten-like foul call with just over three seconds to play.  Penn State’s Jonathan Graham was whistled to have hit John Shurna on the arm, though the contact seemed very minimal from the angles shown.  Again, it might have technically been a foul, but usually would not be called given the league and the situation. 

Shurna—as you would expect from the school’s all-time leading scorer—calmly drained both free throws to give his team a critical win.  Had the foul not been called, Northwestern’s NCAA Tournament hopes would be on total life support at the moment.  Instead, they are still very much alive.

With the win, Northwestern is 17-11 overall and 7-9 in the Big Ten.  As of late last night, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Wildcats as the second-to-last team in the NCAA Tournament.  For fans of a team desperately seeking its first-ever NCAA Tournament berth, it’s certainly a nice piece of hope to cling on to.

However, the problem I find with the current “last four in-out” feature is it doesn’t account for something almost certain to take place: conference tournament upsets.  Lunardi assumes at-large-worthy teams from leagues like the Missouri Valley, Mountain West and West Coast conferences will also win their conference tourneys. 

However, it is extremely rare that we actually see this happen.  This year, with more non-BCS conferences sporting at-large-worthy teams, it seems almost certain not to happen.  What if UCLA wins the Pac-12 tourney; how about if UTEP wins the C-USA Championship?  These are all things that are very tough to take into account with bracketology.

That said, Northwestern’s current status as “in," according to Lunardi, would change to “out” given just two conference tournament upsets, if all else held constant.    

That aside, Northwestern still has to win at least one more game in order to maintain their current “in” status.  That will be quite a challenge. 

Northwestern’s final two games are against Ohio State at home followed by a trip to Iowa to close out the regular season.  They have to win at least one to continue to feel good about their NCAA chances.

Beating Ohio State is not entirely out of the question given the Wildcats beat Michigan State in Evanston back in January, but will still be quite the task.  With OSU looming, the more realistic game to circle for a potential win is the finale at Iowa.

Last time they faced Iowa, Northwestern dominated the Hawkeyes, winning by 19 at home.  The possibility of repeating that performance is very unlikely.  Iowa has been extremely unfriendly to Big Ten teams in Iowa City this season.  Just ask Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin.  All three teams lost there.

Winning one of its final two games is going to be fairly difficult.  If Northwestern can do it, they should be in a little better position—relative to other bubble teams—than they are right at this moment.  For bracketology sake, the Wildcats would likely move ahead of the other two “last four in” teams and maybe one or two more. 

However, it’s also worth considering that Northwestern could have taken itself out of this precarious position by now had it shown an ability to win one or two tough, close Big Ten games. 

Everyone knows about the debacle against Michigan this past Tuesday.  However, the Wildcats also had a good chance to win in their first meeting with the Wolverines in Ann Arbor.  They led for most of the second half in that game, but let it slip away due to a complete inability to rebound or protect the basketball during Michigan’s rally.  They folded under the weight of the situation.

Beat Michigan once, and Northwestern is in great shape right now at 18-10 overall, 8-8 in Big Ten, and an RPI ranking perhaps 10 notches higher than its current rank of 47. The same statements (except maybe the RPI) would apply had the Wildcats been able to convert final-possession chances against Illinois or Purdue at home. 

Win one of those four games, and Northwestern would not be a “last four in” team.  It would not have to win against either a Top 10 team (Ohio St.) or a team (Iowa) capable of beating anyone in the league at home.  It wouldn’t have to worry about making a run in the Big Ten Tournament.

The Big Ten is the top-rated conference in the country this year.  As such, it has provided ample opportunities for teams like Northwestern to get the requisite wins to solidify an NCAA at-large berth.  The win over Michigan State combined with a bunch of losses to the other good teams in the league will not be enough. 

I believe the best chances for Northwestern to make history and reach the NCAA Tournament have already come and gone.  There will still be hope for the next two weeks, but ultimately there simply won’t be enough to back up that hope.

Again, I would love to be wrong about this.  Prove me wrong, Purple.  Beat OSU and make history.

Other NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdowns

West Virginia-Xavier

Miami-USF

Arizona-BYU

Purdue-LSU

Seton Hall-Colorado State

Memphis-Texas

Dayton-Mississippi State

It’s never a bad game if your star player breaks the school’s all-time scoring record.

In a commanding 64-53 victory over Minnesota, John Shurna scored 18 points to surpass Bill McKinney’s 35-year-old scoring mark.  With four more regular-season games and two possible postseason tournaments, Shurna should be able to score the 98 more points he needs to be the first Wildcat to ever break 2,000 points. 

This season’s team may continue to add program firsts if it has a strong showing in the final four regular-season games and secures the school’s first-ever bid to the NCAA tournament, a feat that is looking a lot more likely after a huge win over Minnesota.

Game notes

In addition to Shurna’s heroics, Dave Sobolewski scored a game-high 22 points while hitting four of five shots from behind the arc.  His consistent scoring of late has risen his points per game to 9.4, and now only Shurna and Drew Crawford average more. 

Northwestern’s 3-point shooting has also been better in recent games, and the team hit 10 3s against Minnesota, making them at a 37 percent clip. 

Overall, the team’s offense, averaging 70.3 ppg, has not been experiencing its scoring droughts from earlier in the season.  Shurna, averaging 20.2 ppg, showed his ability to dominate the offensive end when he exploded with 12 points in a 3:22 span toward the end of the first half. 

The Wildcats did commit 10 turnovers, but they added 15 assists in solid team basketball.  Minnesota had a rougher game with 14 assists compared to 21 turnovers. 

Northwestern coach Bill Carmody kept the Wildcats in the 1-3-1 for a large percentage of the game, and it often forced the Golden Gophers to take tough 3s, on which they shot 5-for-17.  The Cats recorded eight steals, and they were able to force Minnesota into traps at midcourt. 

Minnesota’s press on defense seemed to have an effect on Northwestern, because it would usually take close to 10 seconds for the ball to actually get to the offensive end, but the press could be more effectively broken with a pick set in the backcourt. 

Northwestern’s real issues were in rebounding and interior defense.  In addition to allowing 30 points in the paint, the Wildcats pulled in 20 rebounds compared to Minnesota’s gigantic 41, including 17 offensive rebounds. 

Luka Mirkovic again did not play, and although Davide Curletti had a decent game, he had his left hand taped up past the wrist due to an unconfirmed injury. 

An interesting positive note to come out of the game was the fact that the Big Ten Network is running a promotion in which the Big Ten student section that forces conference opponents to shoot the worst free throw percentage on its home court wins $5,000 toward a charity of its choice. 

Somehow, Big Ten teams have shot 70-115 at Welsh-Ryan Arena, and this 60.87 percent from the charity stripe is the best in the conference. 

Although it is not entirely clear how this phenomenon is to be explained, Northwestern is undoubtedly finding some home-court advantage.  The Cats are 11-3 at home and 5-2 in conference play.

Looking toward Michigan

This next game will test that home-court advantage.  After pulling out a 2-point win in overtime on Jan. 11 in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines are coming off a win over sixth-ranked Ohio State as they travel to Evanston. 

Northwestern has only one game to give if the team is to reach .500 in conference play.  However, Ohio State is also coming to town, so a win here would give the Cats some much needed breathing room. 

This promises to be a great matchup in which the Cats look to exact revenge in a way similar to what they did to Illinois and Minnesota. 

Northwestern is only averaging 3.4 ppg more than Michigan, while Michigan is only shooting 0.2 percentage points better.  While the teams are extremely well-matched on the offensive end, Michigan is only averaging 1.2 rpg more than Northwestern, the Wildcats’ biggest weakness. 

If Shurna continues to light it up, a full student section keeps those free throws biting iron and the team begins to box out, the Cats have a real chance in this game.

The fight for the tournament

It looks as if eight Big Ten teams will be receiving bids to the NCAA tournament.  After the win over Minnesota, Northwestern sits in seventh place in the conference standings. 

With Purdue sweeping Northwestern, sweeping Illinois, and winning the sole contest with Minnesota, the Boilermakers will most likely be taking that sixth bid.  That means there are two remaining for Northwestern, Minnesota, and Illinois. 

Before Saturday’s games, Northwestern already had a higher RPI than Illinois and won while Minnesota and Illinois both lost. 

Illinois got stomped on by the lowly Cornhuskers, and the Fighting Illini are fighting themselves out of the tournament, while Bruce Weber is fighting himself out of a job. 

If the Cats can continue to win, and even if they end up below .500 in conference play, they will have a solid shot at the tournament if Illinois cannot find a win and the selection committee is enamored enough with the Big Ten to hand out eight bids. 

At least one guy in the building is ignoring all these ifs.  The new Northwestern scoring leader, the man an entire building of strangers will affectionately call “Johnny,” is doing all he can to propel his team to its first ever Big Dance.

Level heads did not prevail in a frustrating loss at Purdue, and three days later like a reoccurring nightmare, pathetic play on the inside cost the ‘Cats what would have been a huge win at Indiana.

Now with five games left before the Big Ten Tournament, Northwestern needs to forget this road trip and finish the season nearly perfect in order to secure that fabled NCAA Tournament bid.

What Happened on the Road

At both Purdue and Indiana, the game stayed close for most of the contest.  Purdue won by 10 and did not begin to pull away until a little under seven minutes to play in the second half.

Indiana only took the game by six and held but a two-point lead with 2:14 left.  However, Northwestern could not find the basket and only scored one point after that mark.

Against Purdue, Northwestern’s defense could not stop D.J. Byrd and Robbie Hummel, who went for 20 and 27, respectively.  Foul trouble spelled the end for the ‘Cats as Dave Sobolewski, Nick Fruendt and Davide Curletti had four fouls, Alex Marcotullio fouled out and Drew Crawford had two technicals.

Indiana was only the second game of the season in which the ‘Cats registered more turnovers than assists.  In addition, Northwestern had one bench point compared to Indiana’s 22, and Northwestern was outscored in the paint by 16 points.

The game was kept close by John Shurna’s heroics when he was able to make points out of nothing and added another 29 to his impressive résumé.  However, the Wildcats’ other star, Drew Crawford, committed four turnovers when he tried to force the ball into the lane on uncontrolled drives.

The main problem continues to be the play on the inside.  Curletti scored only one point and grabbed seven rebounds over the two-game stretch.  The ‘Cats were out rebounded by 15 boards over the two games, and they have a minus-4.5 rebounding margin on the year.

Injury Updates

Drew Crawford was wearing kinesiology tape on his right shoulder against Indiana, though it did not seem to slow him down.  The tape can be used for slight inflammation and other smaller issues.

Despite lackluster performances and possible pain, he still averaged 16 points and four rebounds on the road stretch.

JerShon Cobb saw action for the first time in weeks as he stepped onto the court for a few seconds against Purdue and put in six minutes at Indiana.  His three rebounds looked decent against the Hoosiers, but there was obvious rust in two personal fouls and turnover.

Luca Mirkovic again suited up but did not see any action.  If he could get back in and show productivity, Northwestern might benefit from scoring inside and from a rotation of big men to keep more size on the court when one center needs to sit.

What’s Next

After handing the Wildcats a crushing 23-point loss at The Barn on January 22, Minnesota comes to Evanston, looking to sweep the series.

Coming into this season, the two teams had a perfectly balanced record against each other over the past decade.  The Wildcats are looking to even the record once again and exact revenge for the last contest.

John Shurna is averaging 20.3 points per game and is only 17 points away from breaking Bill McKinney’s all-time scoring mark at Northwestern of 1,900 points that has stood since 1977.  With five regular-season games, the Big Ten Tournament and either the NCAA Tournament or the NIT, Shurna could very well be the first Wildcat to eclipse the 2,000-point mark.

Winning the Big Ten Tournament aside, the ‘Cats have two main paths to the NCAA Tournament.  They either win out the rest of the season without needing to win against Ohio State, or they beat Ohio State and can afford to finish the season just under .500 in conference play.

However, this last stretch of the season starts with the Minnesota game and continues with a huge home game against Michigan, what should be a comfortable win at Penn State, a contest at home against Ohio State and a game against the resurgent Hawkeyes in Iowa City.

Right now, Shurna is stepping up to be the dominant force he needs to be for Northwestern.  If he can write himself into the record books, he just might be able to write this team into those books as well.

Northwestern and Iowa might just start hating each other outright.  Right now, Northwestern has no storied rivalry, no Ohio State to its Michigan, no Purdue to its Indiana.  Could Iowa be that hated foe, the game that every player and fan alike circles on the calendar months in advance?

Thursday night's meeting was not a sell-out, but over 6,000 fans, including a full student section, watched the ‘Cats pick apart the Iowa Hawkeyes, 83-64, in what had the beginnings of a rivalry atmosphere.

Northwestern dominated this contest.  The ‘Cats took the lead at 3:34 into the game and never relinquished it.

Iowa had no answer for the 1-3-1 defense, and a young point guard stepped up big to give Northwestern its third straight win as it prepares for a tough road stint through the Hoosier state, basketball’s heartland.

The ‘Cats find their groove

An explosive offense coupled with a rigid defense to produce the Wildcats’ 19-point victory, arguably their most complete game of the season.

The offense thrived with balanced scoring, as five players put up double digits.  Freshman Dave Sobolewski stepped up and scored a game-high, and career-high, 23 points while playing 40 minutes.

The ‘Cats have both lived and died by the three pointer, and recently their stroke has returned.  They shot 52 percent from behind the arc, hit 13 threes, and Sobolewski, Alex Marcotullio, John Shurna and Reggie Hearn all hit three threes.

Defense added to a clean offensive performance.  While only committing seven turnovers alongside 22 assists, the ‘Cats forced 18 Iowa turnovers and scored 20 points off those turnovers.

Northwestern deployed a solid combination of 1-3-1 and man-to-man defenses to record 11 steals and three blocks.

Interior play was still lacking with only three points from Davide Curletti. However, Curletti added a strong defensive presence and much-needed size inside.

JerShon Cobb, who has not played since January 4, and Luka Mirkovic, who has not seen action since January 22, were both finally suited up for the same game, although they did not play.  After suffering a concussion earlier in the season, Marcotullio looked healthy in his 26 minutes in which he scored 13 points and dished out six assists.

In addition, Nick Fruendt added 10 decent minutes, showing more presence from the bench than coach Bill Carmody has allowed in weeks.

The only real issue was poor rebounding where Iowa won the battle on the boards.  Every other aspect of the game was dominated by smart team play from Northwestern.

Purdue

A hot Northwestern team with a roster that is healthier than it has been in over a month heads into West Lafayette on Sunday.

If the healthy ‘Cats can carry momentum from their three-game winning streaking to Purdue, the game might be their fourth-straight Big Ten win.

The last time the two teams met was in Evanston where the Boilermakers escaped with a two-point win.  In West Lafayette, Purdue does not have too much home court advantage, as it is 2-3 in conference play at home.

This is a very winnable game for Northwestern.  Purdue, the No. 60 RPI team, has only two players averaging over 10 points per game, so Northwestern’s 1-3-1 defense should try to force the ball into the hands of secondary players.

Purdue’s only win in its last five Big Ten games was against Northwestern.  The Wildcats will be looking for revenge as they claw back up the conference standings.

Indiana

Indiana’s Assembly Hall on Wednesday presents a much more difficult challenge.  The Hoosiers are 5-1 in conference at home, are the No. 16 RPI team and are ranked 23rd in the nation.

Indiana has been scoring 12.8 more points per game than its opponents, and the team has four players averaging double digits in the scoring column.  If the Wildcats want a chance to win in Bloomington, they have to slow down Cody Zeller, the 6'-11" freshman forward averaging 15.4 points per game and 6.4 rebounds per game.

Northwestern, 3-7 against RPI top-50 teams, will have its hands full dealing with Indiana’s offensive strength, especially in the paint.  The Wildcats’ keys to success are staying calm in a stadium that will be rocking and playing help defense without giving up open shots.

However, the game is not a guaranteed loss because after beginning the season on a tear, Indiana has lost five of its last nine games.  Although they are coming off big wins over Purdue and Illinois, the Hoosiers’ shaky Big Ten play exposes them as far from invincible.

While losing both games on the road would make the Wildcats’ fight to finish .500 in-conference even more improbable, at least one win in this stretch would keep their postseason dreams alive and well.  

Any fan of college basketball is well aware of the 73-year-old monkey weighing down the Northwestern University Men’s Basketball team. 

Since the NCAA tournament’s inaugural year in 1939, the Wildcats are the only team in any of the big six conferences (Big East, Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Big 12, Pac-12) not to receive a single berth. 

It is no surprise then that with any spurt of success, the media and fans alike will beat the “Is This the Year?” question to a pulp.  The 2011-2012 campaign has been no different as the Wildcats stunned No. 7, Michigan State, in mid-January. 

As fans stormed the newly designed court, new heights of hope and confidence were reached.  The then 12-5 Wildcats sported a 2-3 conference record in the Big Ten (which is arguably the best conference in the nation this year), a top-25 RPI and a top-10 strength of schedule. 

Within two weeks however, Chicago’s Big Ten team dropped three straight, including blowout losses at the hands of unranked Minnesota and then-unranked Wisconsin and a heartbreaking two-point loss against Purdue back in Evanston. 

At 2-6 in the Big Ten, the tournament discussion was all but over, the excitement had died down, and the feelings of optimism had turned to disappointment.

With a slew of winnable contests on the schedule, the Wildcats had no option but to go on a run—a run that hopefully would end at the Big Dance. 

Defeating a hapless Nebraska team received no attention, yet the win on the road against cross-state rival Illinois this weekend has placed Northwestern back in the conversation. 

In late December, Joe Lunardi, renowned bracketologist, proclaimed Northwestern would most likely need to be 9-9 in the Big Ten to receive a bid.  Currently at 4-6, the team would need to go on a 5-3 run through February and early March to attain the .500 mark. 

However, with games remaining against Penn State, Minnesota, Purdue and two against Iowa, the Wildcats will have plenty of opportunity to propel themselves above the chaotic mix in the middle of the nation’s deepest conference. 

Three games against ranked opponents—Indiana, Michigan and Ohio State—the latter two being at home, provide multiple chances for a second signature win to be placed before the eyes of the Selection Committee.

Early season wins against LSU and Seton Hall in the Charleston Classic may also loom large for the Wildcats’ chances.  The Pirates have gone on to a respectable season in the vaunted Big East with wins over West Virginia and Connecticut, while the Tigers have a signature win against top-25 Marquette on their resume.     

For the Northwestern Wildcats to make their first NCAA tournament in history, for them to drop the 73-year-old monkey off their back, it’s simple—they need to go 5-3 in their remaining games. 

With a possible signature win and a Big Ten tournament win added to that, there is no reason why come March 11th—Selection Sunday—Northwestern fans won’t be sitting on their couches with something they haven’t had...

A chance.

In a narrow 74-70 win, Northwestern notched its first victory in Illinois' Assembly Hall since 1999.  To the backdrop of fans chanting, “Chicago hates purple,” Northwestern fought to defend its title of “Chicago’s Big Ten Team.”

The game featured an evenly matched first half in which the Illini were led by Meyers Leonard who did not miss a shot until 6:43 left in the second half.  Reggie Hearn led Northwestern with 4-of-4 shooting from three-point land in the first half, and the ‘Cats held a 36-33 lead at half.

The second half witnessed a Northwestern hitting a quick layup and then experiencing a scoring drought that lasted 7:32.  Illinois held the lead for 8:18 in the middle of the half, but the Wildcats stayed one step ahead of Illinois in the last five minutes of the game.

When Illinois was forced to start fouling, the ‘Cats began hitting free throws and stunned Assembly Hall.

How each player looked

John Shurna has not stopped scoring this year.  He leads the Big Ten with per-game averages of 19.6 points and 2.6 three-point shots made.

He dropped another 24 points on Illinois and surpassed Evan Eschmeyer for second place on the all-time Northwestern scoring list.  Five of those 24 came when he stepped up and nailed two big shots in consecutive possessions to end Northwestern’s scoring drought in the second half.

He has also showed versatility in the past several games, putting in minutes in the inside while Davide Curletti sits.  On his drives and off-balance shots, Shurna has mastered using his length to get away from defenders and creating easier shots.

Aside from Dave Sobolewski and his transition from high school to Big Ten play, no one has stepped up even close to as much as Reggie Hearn.  Formerly a walk-on, Hearn is one of only three players to start every game this year.  Sobolewski and Shurna are the other two.

He missed only one shot all game and added 20 points, including 12 from behind the arc.  Hearn is one of the main reasons Northwestern’s postseason hopes are still alive.

Drew Crawford’s athleticism shined against the Illini.  The best athlete on the team, Crawford is averaging 17.4 points per game this year and scored a hard earned 13 in Champaign.

Although he had two turnovers from out of control drives in the paint, he is stepping up and trying to be the spark on offense Northwestern needs to get out of its long scoring droughts.

Dave Sobolewski is doing the little things right.  He is showing the confidence necessary to drive the basket more, and he added 14 points in this contest. More importantly, he recorded zero turnovers and spent the entire game fighting with Leonard, the center who is listed as a foot taller and 60 pounds heavier than Sobolewski.

Alex Marcotullio did not add an offensive presence, but he pulled in seven big rebounds and helped the 'Cats win the rebounding contest, something they do not often do.

Curletti slowed down Leonard with his tight defense, but he needs to begin making more of a difference on offense.

What still needs to improve

Even a good win is not perfect, and Northwestern continued troublesome trends of scoring droughts, consistently weak interior play and spotty free throw shooting.

After Sobolewski set off the second half with a beautiful drive around an Illini defender, Northwestern went the next 7:32 of game play without a score.  In this stretch, the Wildcats missed two free throws and five shots, four being three-pointers.

Having to settle for threes is a result of weak play in the paint that has been a continuing problem for the ‘Cats.  Again Luka Mirkovic did not play, and Curletti took zero shots from the floor, grabbed zero offensive rebounds and added only one point off a free throw.

With so little offensive production from the interior, coach Bill Carmody once again started a small lineup with no center.  Shurna is a consistent enough scorer to continue adding buckets from the post, but when a guard subs in for Curletti or Mirkovic, Sobolewski and another guard end up dealing with other teams’ giants on the defensive end.

While the ‘Cats only shot five free throws before 0:42 left in the second half, they missed every one of them.  Even though they buckled down and went 8-of-10 in the closing seconds, their usually dead-on free-throw shooting has been shaky recently. 

Tournament chances

With two straight conference wins, an ailing team suddenly received a much-needed injection of life.  However, with eight games left, Northwestern needs to finish 5-3 in order to claw back to .500 in the Big Ten.

Thursday’s game is huge against a Hawkeye team that is showing more promise than Iowa has seen in years.  Both Iowa and Northwestern are riding two-game winning streaks and are fighting to keep postseason hopes alive.

If the ‘Cats can find a true home-court advantage at Welsh-Ryan Arena and pull off a third straight Big Ten win, they will have the momentum necessary to face a tough road trip through the Hoosier State at Purdue and Indiana.

A win on this stretch would pay huge dividends for the Wildcats, and an upset in one of the final three home contests—Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State—could make dreams of Northwestern’s first ever bid to the NCAA Tournament become a reality.

Nebraska’s first-ever game in Evanston as a member of the Big Ten was an affair both dominated by and almost lost by the Wildcats.

In a contest that featured six lead changes, it was a one-possession game midway through the first half.  The ‘Cats and their crowd finally came alive, going on an 11-3 run that featured three three-pointers and a Drew Crawford dunk.  Nebraska had to call a timeout to stop the rush.

Going into the locker room with a 15-point lead, Northwestern comfortably controlled the game.  However, the Wildcats again came out flat and were outscored by 14 points in the first 9:30 of the second half.

Back up by 12 with only 5:32 left to play, the Wildcats seemed to be completely in control and ready to simply wind down the clock.  Another run by the Huskers, this time 11-2, brought the game once more to only a one-possession difference with 1:33 left to play.

Northwestern was able to hold on, but the team’s third conference win was unnecessarily close.

The Negatives

Nebraska, 11-9 going into the game, should have been an easy opponent at home.  Weak interior play, injuries, mistakes and lackluster fan support let the Huskers keep the game tight.

Neither Davide Curletti nor Luka Mirkovic started the game, so John Shurna was forced to give up some of his perimeter role to post up in Bill Carmody’s Princeton offense.

When Curletti finally came in, he added no field goals, no offensive rebounds and no blocks.  While he did have eight assists, he needs to secure the starting spot at center by providing a real interior presence that draws defenses away from the perimeter.

Although Mirkovic suited up, he never got into the game and is recovering from an ankle injury. He is one of several Wildcats battling injuries, which led to only six players seeing action against Nebraska.

Alex Marcotullio seems to be recovering nicely after putting in 28 minutes on the floor, but he has fought a toe injury and a concussion.  JerShon Cobb is a big loss with his hip problems, and did not suit up against the Huskers.

Freshman Tre Demps’s shoulder surgery put him out for the season, and preseason expectations had him helping fellow freshman Dave Sobolewski shoulder the load at guard.  Sobolewski had another 38-minute outing this game, and Carmody rarely sits him.

This perhaps led to several rare mistakes by Sobolewski at the end of the game.  Also, Northwestern’s mostly tough defense left Huskers open at the end of the shot clock, and Nebraska shot 51.9 percent from the field and 42.3 percent from three-point land.

It also seems that Northwestern’s historically laughable fan support is trending back towards its former self.  After three straight sellout crowds, Welsh-Ryan Arena saw just under 3,000 fewer fans than capacity welcome Nebraska to the Big Ten.

The Positives

Not all can be bad if a team collects a Big Ten win.  Shurna and Crawford were their consistent selves and added 28 and 21 points, respectively.

The team regained some of its three-point shooting confidence and pulled the trigger 31 times, hitting 45.2 percent.

Aside from two costly turnovers, Sobolewski has been as consistent as a freshman can be asked to be in the Big Ten.  He added another five assists and looked comfortable shooting, recording seven three-point attempts.

The offense was not an issue, and if the defense can finish playing the last few seconds of the shot clock, opposing offenses will find it hard to get off any decent shots.

The Second Half of the Big Ten Season

Northwestern travels to Champaign for an in-state matchup against Illinois.  The Orange Krush always make Assembly Hall a tough venue, but the question is who needs this game more.

Illinois has fallen to 5-4 in the Big Ten and wants this game, but if Northwestern can hold a presence in the paint, then the ‘Cats have the potential to take this game off the Illini and keep their NCAA Tournament dreams alive.

A home game against Iowa should give the ‘Cats some momentum for a tough road stretch in Indiana, where Northwestern has two straight road games against Purdue and Indiana.

Rematches follow against Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa.

Postseason Outlook

Northwestern needs to go at least .500 in conference play to have a chance at going Dancing.  However, the Wildcats are 3-6 in Big Ten play, and would need to turn that around with a 6-3 finish.

Last year, they made a decent run in the Big Ten Tournament, so if they could recreate that without Michael “Juice” Thompson, their NCAA Tournament chances would greatly improve.

However, the Big Ten is not lacking in strong opponents, and the ‘Cats need to step up in the second half of conference play to stake their claim in conference.