East Carolina Football

Boise State, Air Force, Navy, Army, Houston, SMU, and UCF.  All of these schools have been talked about as serious contenders to join the Big East Conference— a conference that's looking to expand. 

So, it's perhaps surprising that, out of all of the schools that have expressed interest in joining the Big East, none of the aforementioned "favorites" currently has the highest average attendance this season.  That honor goes to ECU, which has averaged 49,862 fans per home game this season, or 99.7 percent capacity.

Those numbers make it all the more baffling as to why the Pirates aren't being more heavily favored by the Big East Conference as potential new members.

The Big East Conference is in danger of crumbling, and perhaps even losing its auto-bid.  So it only stands to reason that it try to get the strongest possible programs as expansion members. 

Defining "the strongest" is a bit tricky.  Here is the list of contributing factors: program prestige, fan support, market share and access to new recruiting areas for the conference.  With these factors in mind, the Big East's lack of interest in ECU becomes even more confusing. 

Program Prestige

Nobody is arguing that ECU is the most prestigious program to have shown interest in the Big East.  That is obviously Boise State.  However, of all the other candidates, ECU is arguably the second most prestigious. 

The Pirates have won two conference titles in the last three seasons.  Of all the expansion candidates, only Boise State can claim the same.  The Pirates also have two marquis wins in the past few seasons.  They defeated both West Virginia and Virginia Tech in 2008.  By comparison, UCF's biggest win during that time was against a 6-loss Georgia team. 

Fan Support

This one is pretty simple.  Fan support equals attendance.  As mentioned previously, ECU has the highest attendance of the Big East expansion candidates. 

Furthermore, the fan support stays high regardless of the team's record. When a 0-2 Pirates team played Conference USA bottom-dweller UAB earlier this season, the game drew over 50,000 fans.

Media Market

This is where most critics commonly knock the Pirates.  While it is true that Greenville, North Carolina is not exactly a huge media market, size is hardly the only indicator of a good media draw. 

Blacksburg, Virginia is a much smaller market than Greenville, yet Virginia Tech has no problem drawing viewers—thanks to strong fan support.  Fan support equals viewers, and as already established, ECU has plenty of fan support.

Conversely, simply being located in a large media market does not necessarily guarantee a large number of viewers.  If that were the case, conferences would frantically be trying to recruit Howard University in order to gain the Washington D.C. media market. 

Without fan support, media market means very little.  In a Conference USA game against Marshall earlier this season, UCF managed to have only 24,750 fans in attendance. 

It's incredibly difficult to believe that very many of the two million-plus people in the Orlando market were watching the game if fewer than 25,000 were interested enough to go.

Recruiting Area

The state of North Carolina has plenty of recruits to go around.  It already supports four teams from Automatic Qualifying conferences.  The state is also geographically close to many of the member institutions currently in the Big East (unlike say, Idaho). 

Despite the potential recruiting advantages, the conference currently has no member presence in the state.  Adding ECU would change that.

Honestly, there is no logical explanation for the lack of interest ECU has been receiving from the Big East.  That's a real shame for a conference desperately in need of solid members.

East Carolina quarterback Dominique Davis completed 26 straight throws in the first half of today's game versus Navy. Davis competed his first pass of the game and went into halftime 26-26 with 251 yards and two touchdowns. The old record for consecutive completions in a single game was set by Tee Martin of Tennessee in 1998 and tied by Aaron Rodgers in 2004.

Navy has a below average defense, but 26 straight completions by any QB against any opponent is quite a feat. This record could stand for a very long time. It is so hard to complete five or 10 in a row, but to complete 26 straight throws is amazing. That's 26 straight passes in a row, without a bad pass or having a receiver drop a pass, having a defender break up a pass, having to throw one out of bounds or being pressured into throwing one into the dirt.

Davis broke the consecutive completion record over the course of multiple games. Last week against Memphis he completed his last 10 passes of the game. This gives him 36 straight completions, crushing the previous record of 26 set by Aaron Rodgers in 2004.

East Carolina has had its ups and downs this year and so has Dominique Davis. He's had great games, and he's had not-so-great games. In the season opener against South Carolina he went 37-56, threw for 260 yards and four touchdowns. The next week against V-Tech he barely completed 50 percent of his passes and didn't throw a single touchdown. Davis is having a good year, but not great; he's completed 71.6 percent of his passes, has 2,013 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The 26 and 36 consecutive completions will be without a doubt Davis' defining legacy on college football.

Davis finished the Navy game going 40-45, with 372 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-35 victory.

After being suspended by Boston College for academic reasons in 2009, former Eagles' quarterback Dominique Davis transferred to East Carolina. Davis has been excellent since joining the Pirates last season and continues to help his NFL chances.

Davis decimated the Navy secondary on Saturday and broke a major college football record by completing 36 straight passes dating back to last week, surpassing former California and current Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

In 2010 Davis threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 37 touchdowns, but he has been largely unable to replicate that success this season. Aside from the past two games, Davis has been very hit-and-miss this season with a touchdowns to interceptions ratio of 14:10.

Despite his problem with interceptions (he threw 16 last year), there is no denying that Davis has all the physical tools needed to be a successful quarterback.

Can Davis make it to the big time?

CBS Sports' NFLDraftScout.com lists Davis as the No. 9 overall quarterback entering the 2012 NFL Draft, so he stands a pretty good chance of being selected. It is nearly impossible to tell if he will be able to stick once he makes it, however.

The NFL Scouting Combine will probably have much to do with where Davis gets drafted in April, if he gets drafted at all.

Right or wrong, many talent evaluators tend to place more stock in a how a prospect looks at the combine than how he actually performed in games. There is no question that Davis has been incredibly good over the past couple weeks, but he has had some bad stretches too.

Ultimately, I don't think that his recent play will have much bearing on his draft status, especially since he plays in Conference USA and doesn't exactly face top-notch competition on a weekly basis.

While keeping up his high level of play for the remainder of the season certainly won't hurt his draft status, Davis should realize that the combine is where he will truly shine and prove his worth to NFL scouts.

The Big East Conference wants to shed the image as the "Least" of the six automatic qualifying Bowl Championship Series (BCS) conferences.

As the long-time super-powered basketball conference seems to be making up for lost time in the football "gold rush" of TV contracts and seismic shifting in the world of college athletics, Commissioner John Marinatto is the latest conference head to hint at expansion as a means to that end.

The college conference landscape underwent massive change in the last 18 months, sparked by the normally reserved Big Ten's Jim Delany comment in late 2009 that super-charged the internet blogosphere into expansion-mania.  The end result was a 12-team Big Ten Conference that added football superpower Nebraska, a Pac-12 that leveraged additions of Utah and Colorado into a massive new payday, and a Big 12 conference with a serious identity crisis.

Big East Commissioner John Marinatto hopes to reverse the image of the Big East being a "feeder-conference" for coaches and programs on their way to more elite surroundings.  This perception is strongly enforced in the national media after the conference lost Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College due to ACC expansion in 2003-04; and the league's most successful football coaches in recent years have stepped up the rung in their careers (Rich Rod to Michigan, Randy Edsall to Maryland and Brian Kelly to Notre Dame).

The timing could be right for the conference to finally take action, rather than reaction, and "monetize" their potential (to coin a term from Pac-12 commish Larry Scott).  With some of the largest TV markets within their footprint, the Big East conference has no lack of upside to accomplish that.

So what is holding them back?

Football. Or lack of elite, national championship-contenders in football to be more precise.

The Big East is a basketball juggernaut, but a football afterthought among national media outlets.  Bridging the gap between a group of "solid" regional football programs into the leverage needed to draw TV viewership at a national level is exactly why the conference hired former NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue as a strategic adviser.  Tagliabue knows all about the value of TV markets, contract negotiations, staging big events, building consensus and how to market a football league defined by parity.

With a conference makeup that is diverse and widespread, ranging from small private Catholic colleges to large public state flagship universities with teams in Fort Worth, Texas; Tampa, Florida; Milwaukee, Wisconsin and Providence, Rhode Island; building a consensus can certainly be a near impossible proposition.

With the addition of the 2011 Rose Bowl Champions, the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs coming in 2012, the Big East has certainly played their hand at improving their football stock (and incidentally given UConn a top competitor in baseball).  The addition now leaves the league at nine football playing members, 17 basketball playing members, 13 in baseball and eight still in lacrosse.

To Expand, or Not to Expand?

Obviously, the answer was YES, when it came to adding TCU to the league, but is there more in store for the conference?  Marinatto did nothing to slow down the rumor mill at the Big East media day by stating:

"We'll continue to evaluate candidates for membership similar to TCU that also bring real value.  I will tell you our process is ongoing and we'll continue to study all options."

There are many directions and strategies the conference could take, none of which are clear-cut at this time:

• Expansion Strategies: be Aggressive, Traditional, Reactionary, Out-of-the-Box or passive (long-term)?
• • Aggressive: Why wait for the Big 12's demise? Go for all the marbles and try to break open the seemingly fractured conference with a full-court press on Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas to join the Big East (taking the assumption that Texas still feels the Big 12, even on life support is still their best option).  Possibly switch Texas A&M for Kansas if there is interest from the Aggies.
  • Traditional: Court three of the best "non-BCS" candidates: East Carolina, Houston, Central Florida and Memphis.  All of them have very solid credentials in many categories, but none are "slam dunks" across the board.
  • Reactionary: Wait for the Big 12 implosion and try and pick up some valuable shrapnel with three teams, most likely: Missouri/Kansas/Kansas State; but also could be Iowa State/Kansas State/Oklahoma State with Baylor/Texas Tech as potential "leftovers" depending upon the resulting fallout.  If no fallout occurs then move to the "traditional" option.
  • Out of the Box: While not an aggressive strategy, this one is certainly creative. Invite Air Force, Army and Navy as football-only members. Patriotism aside, all three programs are consistent box-office and TV ratings draws and gives the conference more "rivalry" power in scheduling prime-time games.  This leaves the 17 team basketball conference intact but allows for the football conference championship game.  It also allows the conference revenues to be split more favorably to the "all-sports" members.
  • Passive: This strategy seems similar to the "reactionary" one, but is much more long term.  Basically it means doing nothing for now and waiting for another program to "prove itself" in the way TCU did.  Not just at the ticket office or as a conference champion but as a consistent "BCS Buster," this would put ECU, UCF and Houston on notice that a "good team" on the field isn't enough. and gives time for schools like UMass to possible enter the picture down the road.
• Television Strategies: On the heels of the expansion decision is the TV rights negotiations. With no other major conference scheduled to be renegotiating until 2015-16, the Big East will be the last marketable conference available for quite a while. As witnessed among other conferences in recent years there are many available options for the conference:
  • Traditional: Put all sports rights out to the highest bidder.  Leverage NBC Sports interest to drive up the value from ABC/ESPN and possibly Fox Sports and Turner Networks. Let the rights holder then syndicate games to regional networks. (The ACC model).
  • Two-Tiered Rights: Negotiate the primary rights for football and basketball with a national network, and the secondary rights with regional carriers. Allow teams to sell their own "third-tier" media rights (The Big 12 model).
  • Three-Tiered Rights: Same as above for tier 1 and 2 rights, but the conference would negotiate the rights for all schools' rights, possibly putting several layers on a "conference network" or networks. That network, or networks, could be conference-owned (Pac-12 model), a partnership (Big Ten model) or a third party (SEC model).
  • Out of the Box Option: Take any of the above scenarios, but negotiate a "partnership" with non-football member Notre Dame and NBC Sports (the Irish TV partner) to ramp up coverage of all Big East sports, to the benefit of the Irish, the Big East and NBC Sports in competition with ABC/ESPN.  The Irish home games are "owned" by the Irish and NBC seems content with their media rights deal to carry those games, but their road games are not included.  The Irish have an interest in scheduling road or neutral site games against Big East members Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Rutgers and possibly even TCU; in addition to their annual Navy game and occasional Air Force or Army matchup.  Those TV viewers would then still be "owned" by NBC Sports if they held the Big East rights, and it would benefit Notre Dame from a scheduling perspective.
  • Hockey kicker: Live sports are certainly proving the "flight to quality" theory among advertisers/networks and that is playing out in collegiate hockey as well with the recent realignment being driven by TV rights as the Big Ten Hockey Conference moves to their network and the newly minted NCHC hopes to gain a national deal of their own.  Sitting in limbo in all this, of course, is Notre Dame. Trying to decide where their best interests lie (Hockey East, NCHC, remain in CCHA or something else?), the Irish could align their all-sports rights if the Big East and Hockey East coordinated their TV rights with NBC Sports also.  If Irish hockey joined Hockey East would Army also be brought along (as it looks like Atlantic Hockey is declining)?  Does that leave Air Force hockey as another partner? Would UConn invest fully in their hockey program to participate in such a scenario?
    • For anyone that discounts hockey as a factor in collegiate sports, it has proven at the big schools to be the only sport beyond football and basketball to be a true "revenue producer," with such schools bringing in several millions of dollars per season.
    • Along with lacrosse, hockey could be a very good "offseason" sport to market for potential TV partners as the Northeast U.S. is much more interested in those sports than elsewhere.

The Big East shouldn't make the assumption that it is in a "power position" just yet.  The very same instability present in the Big 12 could prove to be just as harmful to the Big East as it appears to be an opportunity.

What if the non-Texas Big 12 members decided that Texas was too big for its own britches and either kicked out the Longhorns, drove them to independent status or reformed their own conference without the 1500-pound-Bevo dictating terms to them? 

This is highly doubtful, of course, but plausible given the recent developments coming out of the conference. Would TCU and Louisville be targets of newly forming Big 12 conference?  Would a league that had Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas be able to "outearn" the Big East?  Again, highly unlikely the scenario occurs, but if the landscape changes enough it could potentially "backfire" on the Big East.

Of course, the "superconference" scenario is an ever-present "climate killer" for the Big East. With their schools overlapping the footprints of the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and now the Big 12, the conference will always have that hanging over their head.  The hope is that a new TV contract will cease the immediate financial imbalance for their members versus the other "BCS schools" and minimize that threat.

The Bottom Line

No matter what scenario the Big East chooses, the long-term value of the conference will come down to improving their national image in the money-making sport of football.  I happen to think Big East football is pretty good overall, the games are competitive, and you can see the development of additional rivalries already growing. 

The Backyard Brawl is still the biggest game of the year for the conference, but the Pitt-Cincy game, Mountaineers-Cardinals and UConn-Rutgers games are all growing in annual hatred and importance.

TV networks and fans alike prefer to watch games on TV that have great stadium atmosphere.  Highly attended games usually are the ones that also draw higher TV ratings.  Flipping around channels on a fall Saturday trying to find a good game to watch, most fans stop on the one with the rocking stadium, vibrating cameras and referees drowned out in a sea of fan noise.

No, the Big East members do not have 100,000 seat stadiums packed with standing-room only crowds. In fact they do not even have any 70,000 seat stadiums, but with coordinated scheduling, the conference can offer up one or two highly entertaining games each week to showcase.  By expanding with the "product" in mind, rather than the "potential" of TV markets, they will ensure long-term growth.

Which expansion candidates have such a rabid fanbase that they will help the conference produce a more entertaining viewing experience?

East Carolina certainly fits that bill, in my opinion.  It is hard to argue with 50,000 fans packed into Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium which plans to expand even further with another 8,000 seats.  The Pirates have been aggressive about scheduling BCS competition, have won back-to-back Conference USA titles and have a history playing West Virginia and Cincinnati.  They would rank fourth in the Big East in 2010 average football attendance, slightly behind Louisville but ahead of Rutgers, TCU, South Florida, Syracuse, UConn and Cincy. 

Besides the Bearcats, the Pirates would be the only school in the conference to fill their stands at 99 percent of capacity.  Any talk of them being a "small market" school ignores the fact that East Carolina draws interest and has large alumni following in the big metro markets of North Carolina. If they also played a Big East slate of opponents on a national network would certainly register more in the ratings than the current Conference USA situation.

If the Big East is not able to pry any of the Big 12 members away, then they could do no better than East Carolina University for a myriad of reasons to help further their quality of product on the field.

The Big East already covers a gigantic footprint with marvelous TV markets, but they first need the best quality product on the field to "sell" to those millions of people, otherwise it is just wasted potential once again.  East Carolina improves the football product in every aspect that matters to fans and viewers and that is something that John Marinatto, Paul Tagliabue and the Big East Conference should focus on exclusively.

We are starting to delve into the college football season in which wagering lines will become 'steady' after two weeks of action.

However, as each college season unfolds, there are lines that makes one scratch their head and say,"Really?"

I'll simply preview those "head-scratchers" for Week 3:

Hawaii + 11 1/2 at Colorado: 

The Buffaloes beat a sad and sorry Colorado State team at home 24-3. Then they were completely embarrassed on the road by California 52-7.

Hawaii on the other hand put up a strong fight against USC, and then won outright in a contest with Army as an underdog once again.

With the Warriors being 2-0 against the spread and Colorado standing at 1-1 ATS this season, it is hard to believe that coach in 'fire' Dan Hawkins is high on anyone's list of covering the spread in any week, let alone being a double-digit favorite at home.

Hmm, are they simply begging you to wager upon the 11 1/2 point Buffs?

East Carolina + 21  at Virginia Tech:

The Hokies completely imploded in a single week of college football play. Not only did they fail to beat Boise State in their opener, they allowed that game to beat them twice five days later against a FBS James Madison squad.

The popular theory is that they will take out their dirty work on an over-matched team over the next couple of weeks.

But when wagering, one never wants to be popular, especially when laying 20+ points for an 0-2 team.

With East Carolina standing at 2-0 with victories over Memphis and Tulsa, one would be led to believe that this is the perfect opportunity to wager against the Hokies as they fade into obscurity.

Hmm, ECU has given up more than 26 points in their first two contests, and they have put up a bevy of points in their 1st two weeks as well. Thus +21 looks to be more than inviting doesn't it.

Washington State +23 at SMU:

Is SMU that good?  Or is Wazzu that bad?

Twenty-three? Wow. SMU is a middle-of-the-road Conference USA team that can wing it around a little bit under head coach June Jones. WSU is really, really struggling to be competitive on a weekly basis, even in their non-conference schedule.

While the line is shocking, it simply may not be enough as the Cougars face the Mustangs on the road and get their heads handed to them.

Texas -3 at Texas Tech:

Put power ratings aside, the general public will assuredly be on Texas on this game.

A top-5 power team on the road, only giving three points to a team with a first-year head coach? 

Hmm, are they begging you to wager upon Texas?

SUMMARY:

I wouldn't lay a dime on these befuddling contests, as they seem to be too easy to wager upon. It is like getting baited into a straight flush in poker. While your flush looks like an absolute winner, when you flip over the cards you are dealt with a pure jab in the stomach of reality.

These four games look to be a flush on the flop—with what is assuredly a straight flush or four pair waiting for you on the river.

Wager wisely on these games, if wagering on them at all.

Pirate Nation is in mourning today.

I can feel its pain down here in Tampa.

This Pirate is a veteran Pirate. Let's just say my college days at ECU were back when the women had a midnight curfew, gas was ¢32 a gallon, beer was ¢50 a pitcher, and the only place open late at night was the greasy gas station called Darwin Waters on the other side of the Tar River.

Purple and Gold are my favorite colors.

It's been a joy to watch what Skip Holtz accomplished with the East Carolina football program. It was a mess when he took over; it's an institution of pride these days.

Skip's gone now. He's down here taking the helm at the University of South Florida. Trust me, USF needs him badly. It just dumped a bully of a head coach named Jim Leavitt, who betrayed his team, players, assistants, administration and alumni.

Skip is here to decontaminate what should be a Big East power. Skip's now in a BCS conference. As much as it pains us to lose him at ECU, he had no hope of getting to one of those BCS bowl games from Conference USA.

Deep down inside, I had hoped that if the Big East were to lose any more teams, it would look at East Carolina. How about Big East Carolina?

Sure it's a dream. So was the ACC for many years, but those teams looked down at us. It was that way then and that way today.

But things will be fine for Pirate Nation. Terry Holland is not a good athletic director. He's a great athletic director, and he'll find the right fit for us.

My Saturdays have revolved around televised ECU games. The crowd and spirit at Dowdy-Ficklen[Stadium is most impressive. It was simply Ficklen back in my day.

It's been a joy to watch Skip on the ECU sidelines. I'm sure you're all still mad at the place kicker who missed those three shots at beating Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl.

But don't be mad at Skip.

He appears to be a really good fit  down here in Tampa.

USF needs him.

It needs a guy who can patch up the mess that Leavitt created.

And if anyone were up to the task, it would be Skip Holtz.

Thanks Skip, for all your great work at ECU.

You did us all proud.

I've spent the past few weeks looking over game stats, individual stats, and team stats for the Arkansas Razorbacks and the East Carolina Pirates.

I have racked my brain trying to think of a way to put a spin on the 2009 AutoZone Liberty Bowl playing out, but I had drawn a blank.

Until last night.

I had settled down in front of the TV to watch ESPN's BowlMania and waited to see the analysis of each bowl game.

There were very few surprises.

ESPN college football analyst Jesse Palmer capped off with, "ECU has not seen a high-powered offense like Arkansas, with guys like Ryan Mallett, Greg Childs, and Joe Adams, who led the SEC in scoring and a quarterback like Ryan Mallett, who is sixth in the nation in efficiency. Arkansas will blow out ECU, and Ryan Mallett will be throwing bombs."

The Mountaineers have, in my mind, a better resume with an upset over then-No. 9 Pittsburgh.

They also have losses at North Carolina (31-17) and home against Virginia Tech (16-3).

North Carolina suffered losses to a dismal Virginia team, Florida State, and NC State, but had a win over then-No. 13 Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech had wins over a hit-and-miss Nebraska team followed by a win over Miami, with a 10-point loss to Alabama, five-point loss to Georgia Tech, and three-point loss to North Carolina. 

The reason I bring this up is because some people believe North Carolina and Virginia Tech had better players than Arkansas. 

I'm nearly 90 percent positive if Arkansas would play North Carolina and Virginia Tech, the Razorbacks would come out with a win.

Neither of those teams has seen an offense with as many weapons as Arkansas.

As for ECU, yes, they beat a high-powered offense in Houston (38-32)—the same Houston team that was outscored by UTEP 58-41 and lost to UCF 37-32.

East Carolina is a good, solid football team, there is no doubt about that.

And yes, if Arkansas came in on Jan. 2, played a lackluster football game, and ECU brought their A-game, the outcome could be in ECU's favor.

But, even with the loss of Paul Petrino (who heads to Illinois), the Hogs will come in poised to leave Memphis with a win.

Coach Bobby Petrino will have the Razorbacks ready for coach Skip Holtz's Pirates.

And, with over a month to prepare for a run-first team like ECU, coach Willy Robinson will have the defense savvy to the offensive tendencies of the Pirates. 

The bottom line is this: In the Houston Nutt-era, Arkansas has been guilty of either playing up to the competition or playing down to the competition.

This year Arkansas has met and played over the competition.

Now, along with every fan, coach, and player on the Arkansas Razorbacks' roster, no one is going to take East Carolina lightly.

The Hogs, with the best quarterback in the SEC, will bring their A-game to the Liberty Bowl on Jan. 2, 2010.

While I truly hope for a good, entertaining game, I won't be surprised if the "experts" are correct.

The consensus of sports radio hosts on the matchup is in favor of the Hogs by a margin between seven and 21 points. 

I'm not quite ready to reveal my prediction, but I will say, as I have in previous articles, that I do believe Arkansas will win the game.

I've talked with ECU fans about how they think the game will play out and they assure me that the Pirates' defensive line will pressure Ryan Mallett.

And, while the speed rush is an effective way to rattle a quarterback, that particular method has been ineffective against Mallett.

When the ends have attempted to get around the edge, Ryan Mallett has stepped up in the pocket and made precision throws.

The only pass-rushing scheme that has thrown Mallett off his game or disrupted the timing of the Arkansas offense has been the success of the defensive tackles beating blockers and closing down the middle of the pocket.

Even then, Mallett has had some success with Brett Favre-like throws. 

All season, Arkansas receivers seem to alternate games, producing big plays every week.

Although tight end D.J. Williams hasn't put up the numbers he did a year ago, he has still been a piece of the puzzle that is the Arkansas Razorbacks' offense.

A surprise piece to that puzzle has been freshman Cobi Hamilton.

The 6'3", 209-pound Texas native has come up big in key games this season to help the Hogs reach the postseason.

In what will undoubtedly be the pinnacle of the Razorbacks' season, all the pieces will come together for one last game.

And East Carolina cornerbacks' Levin Neal and Van Eskridge will have their hands full. 

Let's not forget about the Arkansas running game.

Although the Hogs have not produced much of a running attack this season, the Hogs have a stable of running backs that are just as big of a threat as the receiving corps.

With talent like Dennis Johnson, Broderick Greene, Ronnie Wingo, Jr., Knile Davis, and De'Anthony Curtis, the Pirates' run defense will be tested.

Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo, Jr., will demonstrate SEC speed, and Broderick Greene will provide the power.

A team could easily overlook Arkansas' running game when the passing stats constantly overshadow it, but that stable of running backs will be more than happy to remind anyone to keep an eye on the backfield.

As for the Arkansas defense, I could see senior tackle Malcolm Sheppard and sophomore linebacker Jerry Franklin harassing ECU quarterback Patrick Pinkney, as well as running back Dominique Lindsay.

I'm not saying Pinkney or Lindsay will be ineffective. I'm saying they will be harassed. 

Senior Matt Harris will be patrolling the defensive secondary, as well as playmaker Jerico Nelson, from his hybrid position.

Regardless, it should still be an entertaining game.

#22 Virginia Tech (-12.5) 33 EAST CAROLINA 18

East Carolina is not a good team this season, as the Pirates have been out-gained 5.2 yards per play to 5.5 yppl despite facing an easy schedule of teams that would get out-gained 5.0 yppl to 5.7 yppl by an average team.

Virginia Tech has lost consecutive games to Georgia Tech and North Carolina, but the Hokies are still a good team that has out-gained their opponents 6.3 yppl to 4.8 yppl despite facing teams that would average 5.6 yppl and allow 4.9 yppl to an average team.

My math model strongly favors Virginia Tech in this game, giving the Hokies a 59.8% chance of covering at -12 1/2 points, but East Carolina applies to a very good 56-14-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation that has a 56% chance of winning at a fair line. The math is stronger than the situation in this case and I'll lean with the Hokies at -14 or less.

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EAST CAROLINA (-10.5) 23 Central Florida 16

Central Florida was a good defensive team last season but was saddled with the nation's worst offensive unit. The Knights still have a solid defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and their offense is improved with Wake Forest transfer Brett Hodges at quarterback.

Game 1 starter Rob Calabrese has managed just 42 yards on 12 pass plays, but Hodges has averaged a more respectable 5.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback) an added a rushing element to his game last week with 83 yards on 11 rushing plays.

ECU's defense has been tough against the run (3.8 yards per rushing play allowed), but the Pirates have been exploited through the air for 8.9 yppp in 3 games against teams that would average 6.2 yppp against an average defensive team. Hodges isn't going to put up numbers like that, but he should be better pretty good throwing the ball in this game.

Not only is East Carolina having trouble defending the pass, they are also having aerial problems on offense, which is a bit surprising given the better than average history of senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney. Pinkney is without last year's best receiver Davon Drew, who averaged 16.2 yards per catch, and he's struggled with just 49% completions and a pathetic 4.8 yards per pass attempt and 4.1 yppp.

East Carolina is not a particularly good running team either (just 3.2 yprp the last two weeks against division 1A teams), so Central Florida's solid defense should be good enough to contain the Pirates attack and keep this game close.

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