Minnesota Golden Gophers Basketball

The day after Michigan won its opener against Michigan Tech, three of my college friends and I exchanged e-mails previewing Michigan's basketball season.

We were optimistic our Wolverines could beat Northeastern that night and advance to the Preseason NIT semifinals in New York. We weren't, however, too hopeful that our boys could taken down the No. 4 Bruins. After all, Michigan was coming off a 10-win season and was in only its second year under coach John Beilein.

While we spent our senior year soaking in a miserable season, there was reason to expect things would be better this year. The Big Ten seemed to be weaker than last year, Michigan's star player was no longer a freshman, and the team had a full year to learn Beilein's schemes. 

In fact, one of my friends, Boyle, said Michigan could finish as high as fourth in the conference behind Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State. That was his optimistic view. His pessimistic/realistic view: Michigan still wasn't as good as Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Illinois.

Another friend, TJ, said he'd be "disappointed if Michigan didn't make the Sweet 16..of the NIT."

My pal Larson's outlook for the Wolverines wasn't exactly promising, either: "The Big Ten is awful, so maybe they can string some wins together."

Then Michigan did the unthinkable: It beat UCLA. Suddenly the tone of our e-mails changed.

A couple weeks later, Michigan upset Duke (also ranked fourth at the time), proving that its big win in New York was no fluke. We started to believe that this team could not only get to the Tournament for the first time since 1998, but that it could be a force once it got there.

Then conference play began, and after a three-game losing streak in January, Michigan was under .500 in the Big Ten. The Wolverines put up an admiral fight on UConn's campus against the No. 1-ranked Huskies, but lost, and followed that up with a critical home loss to Michigan State, dropping them to 5-7 in conference play.

On Saturday, Michigan (18-12, 8-9) travels to Minnesota (12-8, 9-8) for a "bubblicious" match-up with the Gophers. Many bracketologists are saying that a win puts the Wolverines in the Tourney. A loss would hurt their chances severely and would likely require an impressive run in the Big Ten tournament if they expect to dance.

So while a loss would be disappointing, it must be put in context. This year's Michigan squad has already overachieved. A win on the road in a game that is just as important to the home team as it is to Michigan is not going to be easy. Two games do not make a season, and while Michigan showed flashes of brilliance, it hasn't proved with certainty that it deserves a bid just yet.

Then again, this is the same Minnesota team that trailed Michigan in the second half by as many as 22 points in a game a couple of weeks ago (Michigan won 74-62). Two other Big Ten teams have already won on the Gophers' home floor. Can Michigan be the third?

If so, the program will be ahead of schedule and have reason to celebrate.

If not, the Wolverines might find themselves on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday. Even if that's the case, they'd still have no reason to hang their heads.

Wisconsin (18-10, 9-7) at Minnesota (20-8, 8-8)

Line: Wisconsin -1

Wisconsin beat Michigan 60-55 on Sunday, but failed to cover the spread. Tied for fourth place in the Big Ten standings, Wisconsin can put some distance between themselves and fifth place Minnesota with a victory here. A final home game against Indiana figures to be a cake walk leading into postseason. Wisconsin lost by four points against the Gophers back on January 15.

A 41-52 loss to Illinois on Saturday dropped Minnesota into a three-way tie for sixth in the conference standings. The Gophers launched an amazing sixty shots from the field and made just 19 of them (31.7 percent). Fifteen offensive boards led to the additional opportunities to miss a shot. But at least they did control the boards. Only six players scored for Minnesota, which is unusual for the deep bench Tubby Smith uses.

ATS:

Wisconsin is 11-14-1 against the spread including 5-5-1 on the road

Minnesota is 11-12 against the spread including 7-5 at home.

The wrong team is favored here. Both teams have incentive to play well. Minnesota has the Senior Day home crowd and a great home record. Freshman Ralph Sampson III has been playing very well lately and should be able to have a major impact against a smaller Wisconsin lineup.

Dave’s Pick: Minnesota straight up

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With Selection Sunday only a few weeks away, I thought I’d delve into the Golden Gophers. I’ll get to my prediction, but first, I want to talk about the team.

The Gophers do have several strengths that could possibly make them a threat in the Dance. First, they play very solid defense. Although they are young, their big men do a great job at blocking or altering shots, and have steadily improved all season at rebounding.

Damian Johnson can guard just about anyone on the floor, regardless of their position, which is an amazing asset. Al Nolen, meanwhile, is one of the best on-the-ball defenders at the guard position in college basketball.

Also, the one constant in the entire Gopher rotation is their defense.

Secondly, they are a deep team. Tubby Smith has finally decided to go 10-deep on the bench, which means Minnesota can keep their pressure defense going for 40 minutes.

However, there are several major weaknesses.

First and foremost, the Gophers really don’t have great guard play. Looking at decent teams that make deep runs, such as Texas and Davidson last season, they have amazing play from their point guards on both ends. Our guards can defend, but they are not very good at running the offense.

That leads me to my second point. The Gophers can struggle on offense for entire halves, and in the NCAA tourney against someone like Pitt, UConn or even Davidson, that’s just not going to work.

They haven’t previously, nor do they now have a go-to scorer that is willing to take the big shots and carry the team when the shots aren’t falling. If they did, the Gophers might be 23-4 and would have beaten Penn State last week.

Now, the final three games are at Illinois and at home versus Wisconsin and Michigan.

I do think the Gophers will win two of three, probably the two home games, and they will win at least one in the Big Ten tourney.

That would make the Gophers a 23-9 or 24-9 team. That will be good enough to get them in. They might win one game, but I can’t see them getting past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The Gophers need to play teams that like to slow it down and play offense.

If a team gets out and runs like North Carolina can, the Gophers have absolutely no chance because they can’t match the athleticism or scoring ability.

If the Gophers get a draw with teams that slow the pace down, they could compete, and even beat a team much better than they are, like Louisville.

Over the last couple of weeks the Michigan Wolverines (17-10 overall, 7-7 Big Ten) have come very close to having their NCAA tournament bubble burst. They needed overtime to take down Northwestern on the road in a must-win game in Evanston, Ill., on Sunday.

However, they didn’t struggle at all in another must-win game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers (19-7, 7-7) on Thursday night.

The game was close for much of the first 10 minutes, but then the Wolverines went on an 18-4 run over the next six minutes. They took a 30-18 lead they would never relinquish.

Michigan went 8-for-19 from behind the arc in the first half en route to a 40-25 halftime lead. The Wolverines stretched their lead to as many as 25 points in the second half and went on to win the game 74-62.

Michigan freshman Zack Novak led all scorers with 18 points. He hit a career-high six three-point shots. Fellow freshman Stu Douglass added 12 points and four assists.

But, the biggest spark for the Wolverines came off the bench. Sophomore point guard Kelvin Grady, who has seen his playing time diminish, went 3-for-3 from behind the arc and finished with 12 points in just 14 minutes.

The Big Ten’s second leading scorer, Manny Harris, was held to just eight points on 2-for-8 shooting. He only played 22 minutes due to foul trouble. All in all, there were four players in double figures for the Wolverines Thursday night.

Minnesota’s leading scorer, junior guard Lawrence Westbrook, had 12 points and four assists. True freshman guard Devoe Joseph led the Golden Gophers with 14 points.

The Golden Gophers were ranked No. 19 back on Feb. 2, but since then have struggled and lost four of their last five games. Northwestern will roll into Minneapolis on Sunday to take on Minnesota. The Wildcats won the previous meeting between the two teams last month.

Michigan kept its NCAA tournament hopes alive with the blowout victory Thursday night. The Wolverines went through a stretch where they lost seven out of nine games, but they have put it back together and won three of their last five.

The Wolverines will travel to Carver Hawkeye Arena, where they will take on the Iowa Hawkeyes this Sunday. Michigan won the previous meeting of the two teams 64-49 at Crisler Arena. The Wolverines will need to beat the Hawkeyes if they want to keep their tournament hopes alive.

The Golden Gophers and Wolverines will meet again on Mar. 9, the final day of the regular season.

No. 19 Minnesota (18-3, 6-3) at No. 14 Michigan State (17-4, 7-2)

Line: Michigan State -9.5

Back in the top 25, Minnesota hits the road for four out of their next five games. With two home victories and five days off, the Gophers head to East Lansing in hopes of claiming a share of first place.

Minnesota thumped Illinois last Thursday in a game that saw the Illini shoot just 29.4 percent from the floor. Minnesota showed again that they are a good second half team, pulling away with their depth en route to a shocking 59-36 victory.

In their first meeting, the Spartans were paced by Kalin Lucas with 24 points in a 70-58 win at Williams Arena.

The Breslin Center has not been kind to Michigan State as of late. The Spartans have lost their last two games at home, including a 68-72 loss to Penn State on Sunday. We were on Penn State that game, as they are a better team than they are being given credit for, but an outright loss leaves Michigan State with just a one-game lead in the standings and a loss of momentum.

Penn State was able to sustain their lead thanks to 50 percent shooting from three-point range. Michigan State had just as many attempts from behind the arc as Penn State (20) but made only five compared to the Lions' 10. You have to go back to Dec. 3 to find a team other than Penn State to score 70 on the Spartans. 

ATS

Minnesota is 10-6 against the spread, including 4-2 on the road.

Michigan State is 9-9 against the spread, including 4-8 at home.

Michigan State is 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 matchups against Minnesota.

So we know MSU is beatable at home. We also know Minnesota has won three of its four road games this year in conference. Minnesota has momentum, and Michigan State is trying to regroup. Minnesota is rested. Minnesota has a winning record on the road against the spread, and Michigan State has a losing record at home against the spread.

Think you know where I’m going with this one.

Dave’s Pick: Minnesota +9.5

See all of Dave's Free college basketball picks against the spread.

No. 19 Illinois (17-3, 5-2) at Minnesota (17-3, 5-3)

Line: Pick

Illinois took out Wisconsin 64-57 to win their eighth straight home game. Now they need to prove themselves on the road to bring home the league title. One game back of league leader Michigan State, Illinois plays four of their next six games in enemy territory. Still leading the Big Ten in scoring defense (56.6 per game), the Illini are getting it done in the paint on both ends of the court.

Minnesota played well for 40 minutes and completed a road victory at Indiana 67-63. Having issues with the outside shooting, the Gophers are moving the ball inside more. In the Indiana victory, Damian Johnson scored 18 and had six boards to go along with Ralph Sampson’s 13 points and eight rebounds.

ATS

Illinois is 11-5-1 ATS, including 4-1 on the road.

Illinois is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 matchups against Minnesota.

Minnesota is 9-6 ATS, including 5-4 at home.

The inside play of Minnesota is going to be difficult to get going against the big Illinois line. The Illini absolutely own the Gophers, having beaten them in 20 straight games. I’m calling Blackjack with straight victory number 21 on Thursday night.

Dave’s Pick: Illinois

See all of Dave's College Basketball Picks Against the Spread at cfbplace.com and soon at cbbplace.com.

No. 18 Purdue (14-2, 3-2) at No. 21 Minnesota (16-2, 4-2)

Line: Purdue -2

Purdue is coming off a 75-53 beatdown of Iowa that went pretty much how we predicted. Purdue was able to extend their defense and hold Iowa to 53 points. Purdue is now holding its opponents to 36.1 percent from the floor, which is best in the Big Ten.

Tied for fourth now in the league, things are starting to click for the healthy Boilermakers. With Robbie Hummel and Chris Kramer securely back in the fold, things are opening up elsewhere on the court for others such as Keaton Grant (6-10 from the arc in past two games).

Minnesota surprised almost everyone with their defeat at Northwestern. The storyline by most after that game was the 1-for-13 shooting by the Gophers coming out of the locker room. I take a different view. Minnesota shot 47.2 percent for the game compared to 47.8 percent for Northwestern. Not much difference there to pin the game on one stretch.

Just as we discussed in a recent Illinois scenario that proved correct, the inability of Minnesota to get to the line and the production by their opponents at the stripe showed a much larger disparity. Minnesota went an ugly 5-11 from the line compared to Northwestern at 21-27. Minnesota is not a team that gets to the line 25 times a game normally, but five points against 21 is a catalyst for defeat.

ATS

Purdue is 7-8 ATS, including 1-2 on the road.
Minnesota is 9-4 ATS, including 5-3 at home.

All in all, these two teams match up pretty much evenly. Should be a great game that goes down to the wire. I’ll take the team with the better spread numbers, the home court advantage, and getting the points.

Dave’s Pick: Minnesota +2

See all of Dave's College Basketball Picks Against the Spread.

Quick Picks features spread picks for the Top 25 teams according to the AP Poll. They are currently also featured at CFBPlace.com—and soon to be featured at CBBPlace.com

No. 18 Minnesota @ Northwestern
2:00 p.m. EST

Current Line: Minnesota -1.5

	Record	Conf	ATS	RPI	SOS	PF	PA
Minnesota	16-1	4-1	8-4	12	51	72.5	61.8
Northwestern	8-6	0-4	6-5	71	25	64.2	57.4

	FG%	D. FG%	3P%	D. 3P%	FT%	RPG	SPG	APG
Minnesota	47.2	38.4	37.3	30.7	70.0	39.4	9.0	16.4
Northwestern	44.9	40.1	38.3	36.1	64.7	34.6	7.4	15.6

Minnesota has looked great in conference play this season—they lost their opener to Michigan State and then took down Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, and Wisconsin.

Northwestern, on the other hand, lost to Penn State by four, Michigan State by 11, Wisconsin by 29, and Purdue by two. Purdue is on the slide, though, while Minnesota is on their way up.

I think that Tubby Smith is going to have the Golden Gophers ready for any challenge presented by the Wildcats and that they're going to win by more than one.

Pick: Minnesota -1.5

For the complete Quick Picks, please see the full article at CFBPlace.com

*All of the stats in the article come from StatSheet.com*

When you're a team trying to make your mark and remain on the national scene, the games against mediocre opponents count just as much as the showdowns with ranked foes.  And in the end, winning is what matters, no matter how you do it.

The surprising 14-1 Minnesota Golden Gophers did just that on Thursday night by overcoming a 13-point deficit to defeat Iowa 52-49 in a classic Big Ten-style game. 

Minnesota, currently ranked No. 19, scored just 20 points in the first half.  But the Gophers got enough offense in the second half to gain the advantage on the heels of a stingy defense.  This was Minnesota's first conference road game of the season, and one they needed to stay at the top of the Big Ten standings after early action.

Minnesota now stands in a three-way tie for third place in the Big Ten at 2-1, with their only loss coming to conference heavyweight Michigan State.  While the Gophers also went undefeated in non-conference play, their only quality win came against Louisville, a team who has been upset numerous times already this season.

The turning point of Thursday night's game was when Minnesota coach Tubby Smith moved to a zone defense after his team got down 23-10.  Iowa, the Big Ten's leader in three-point shooting, struggled to find open looks against the zone and allowed the Gophers to chip away at the lead.

Other Results

Aside from Minnesota, only three other ranked teams were in action on Thursday night.  Each had easy victories.  No. 20-ranked Butler beat Wright State by a score of 64-48, No. 18-ranked Xavier defeated Saint Louis by a score of 70-44, and No. 16-ranked Arizona State pummeled Oregon State 69-38.

The 38 points allowed by the Sun Devils was their lowest point total given up to a conference opponent in their entire 31-year history in the Pac-10 conference.

There was plenty of other Pac-10 action for the night as well. Stanford lost their second straight game after beginning the season 11-0.  The Cardinal lost to Washington by a score of 84-83.  The Huskies won on a tip-in from Jon Brockman (who had 19 points in the game) with 4.6 seconds remaining and are now 11-3 on the season and 2-0 in the Pac-10. 

Arizona also notched their first Pac-10 conference victory of the season by defeating Oregon by a score of 67-52.  The Wildcats are 10-5 on the season and 1-2 on the season, and look to be in danger of breaking their streak of 24 consecutive NCAA Tournaments made.

California, one of the big surprises of the season, moved to 3-0 in the Pac-10 with a 57-50 road victory over Washington State.  Cal has other impressive Pac-10 victories over Arizona and Arizona State, and is now 14-2 on the season.

Upset of the Day 

The biggest upset of the day came in the Sun Belt Conference, where Florida International defeated Western Kentucky by a score of 81-79.  Western Kentucky is coming off a Sweet 16 appearance in last year's NCAA Tournament and has already notched several impressive victories this season, including being the first to defeat Louisville, a top five team at the time.

Western Kentucky also entered the game 3-0 in the Sun Belt Conference, while Florida Atlantic was the opposite at 0-3.

The best conference record in the Sun Belt Conference now belongs to Middle Tennessee State, who moved to 4-0 with a comeback victory over Florida Atlantic.  Middle Tennessee State took their first lead of the game with 2:14 left in the game and needed a layup with 2.4 seconds left to seal the two-point victory against a team now 0-4 in the conference.

Middle Tennessee State defeated South Alabama, who also made the NCAA Tournament a year ago, in the semifinals of the conference tournament a year ago before losing to Western Kentucky in the finals.  The three teams look like they will be the main challengers for the conference's automatic berth in the tournament again this year.

Team to Look Out for

Remember the team that knocked out Duke in the first round two years ago and then went to overtime with Pittsburgh in the second round? 

Virginia Commonwealth is a perennial threat in the CAA and is led by Eric Maynor's 23.1 points per game for the season.  Maynor is the one who sank the shot to defeat Duke two years ago.

Virginia Commonwealth blew out Drexel by a score of 75-46 on Thursday night, using a 40-18 advantage in the second half.  Perhaps the most impressive thing about the victory was that Maynor had only eight points in the effort, proving the Rams have other players capable of carrying the load.

VCU is now 10-5 on the season and 3-1 in the CAA.  They and George Mason, another team that has enjoyed some NCAA Tournament success, are the front-runners to win the CAA's automatic bid this season.

Five random thoughts

1) The Big Ten has had some issues in the arena of college hoops, but this year will result in a return to prominence.  Minnesota knocked off a tough Louisville team, and Illinois has come back strong from a disappointing campaign last year.  However, David Lighty's injury bears watching—Ohio State will miss his toughness.

2) UK's Jodie Meeks channeled his inner Dan Issel with an eye-popping 46 against Appy State.  It will be interesting to see if Meeks throws his hat in the draft ring come April.  I wouldn't recommend it—Meeks is purely a streak shooter who has gone multiple games without an assist (though he had three on Saturday), and since he may have to play the point at the next level, he would do well to improve that facet of his game.

3) UConn showed a lot of fortitude to beat a tough Gonzaga team on the road by coming back from double digits.  They look like a very strong Final Four candidate.

4) Getting back to the Big Ten—Tubby Smith must feel like he's been dipped in honey and rose water compared to the acid bath he took in his final season at UK.  It helps that hoops is second banana in hockey-land, but Smith has recruited better and seems a lot more relaxed. He's turned the Gophers around in quick order.

5) I harped a little bit on the Pac-10 with good reason.  However, the SEC doesn't look much better.  Tennessee looks like the only top 25 team right now, though UK is playing their best basketball and LSU has some talent.  However, there seems to be one SEC team that breaks through to make a Big Dance run.

And now the latest poll...

1) UNC

2) UConn

3) Pitt

4) Oklahoma

5) Wake Forest

6) Villanova

7) Texas

8) Duke

9) Gonzaga

10) Syracuse

11) Xavier

12) Georgetown

13) Louisville

14) UCLA

15) Notre Dame

16) Arizona State

17) Tennessee

18) Ohio State

19) Memphis

20) Clemson

21) Purdue

22) Marquette

23) Minnesota

24) Baylor

25) Illinois