Texas A&M Basketball

No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies (24-9, 9-7 Big 12) vs. No. 1 Connecticut Huskies (28-4, 15-3 Big East)

NCAA Tournament Second Round—West Region

Saturday, March 21—3:35 PM ET on CBS

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Preview

There were plenty of questions surrounding the Huskies at the start of their first round game—coach Jim Calhoun was nowhere to be seen due to an illness, and UConn was down 6-4 after four minutes. But associate head coach George Blaney was able to spark something within the Huskies, as they finished the first half on a 46-14 run en route to a 103-47 win over the Chattanooga Mocs.

The Aggies had a different sort of game, although they wound up winning by a comfortable margin in the end too. As a nine-seed, Texas A&M was the underdog against No. 8 BYU (BYU was also favored by two), although the only time they trailed was when BYU made the opening bucket. The Aggies were up by 12 at the half and won the game by 13.

This is going to be a very different game for A&M, though, as their opponent is no longer a good mid-major but instead a great big six team. The Aggies have taken on their share of great big six teams this season, though, as they faced Big 12 conference rivals Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Missouri on more than one occasion this season.

The Huskies may be a different sort of beast than the Big 12 powerhouses, though. Prior to the Big East Tournament they suffered just three losses—two of which were to fellow one-seed Pitt. In the Big East Tournament, they lost in an epic six-OT battle to Syracuse.

UConn has now put up over 100 points in their past two games—will their explosive offense continue, or will A&M be able to throw them off their game enough to pull off the 1/9 upset?

By The Numbers

	Record	Conf	ATS	RPI	SOS	PF	PA
No. 9 Texas A&M	24-9	9-7	16-10	36	51	71.7	66.3
No. 1 Connecticut	28-4	15-3	13-14	8	29	77.3	64.0

	FG%	D. FG%	3P%	D. 3P%	FT%	RPG	SPG	APG	TPG	BPG
No. 9 Texas A&M	44.6	43.1	36.6	36.2	69.5	40.0	5.0	12.2	12.8	3.9
No. 1 Connecticut	47.0	37.7	34.7	31.3	67.7	45.4	5.8	15.4	12.7	8.0

Stats Leaders

	No. 9 Texas A&M	No. 1 Connecticut
PPG	J. Carter - 14.1	A. Price - 14.0
	D. Sloan - 11.7	H. Thabeet - 13.7
	B. Davis - 10.4	J. Adrien - 13.6
RPG	C. Elonu - 7.4	H. Thabeet - 10.9
APG	D. Sloan - 3.0	A. Price - 4.7
SPG	B. Holmes - 0.9	K. Walker - 1.1
BPG	C. Elonu - 1.6	H. Thabeet - 4.6

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Prediction

Want to see Ryan's FREE Pick Against the Spread and final prediction? Please head over to The Sports Chat Place!

Hope everyone has enjoyed my free plays and hope that you will come to http://www.CTSportsPicks.com to get all of my free and premium picks daily. Also have 20 other professional handicappers that have daily picks both free and premium!

Sometimes when you look at a game, you review all the trends, and even though they are leaning to one team, you still take the other team. Well, today that is the case. Most of the trends favor A&M.

Let's take a look at the trends and ATS records.

Recent Betting Trends

Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.

Aggies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog.

Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.

Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.

ATS RECORDS

Texas A&M: 15-9 ATS overall, 9-5 ATS away from home

BYU: 15-14 ATS overall, 9-5 ATS away from home

BYU was defeated in last year's tournament by A&M, so this year's rematch is much awaited by BYU. The whole offseason the Cougars were motivated by the loss to A&M, and they will win today and pay the loss back big time.

The Big 12 is way overrated this year, and many of A&M's wins were against teams that did not make the tourney. If anyone watched the BYU @ Arizona State game, you understand how good this Cougar team is, losing by only one point. If BYU plays their well-known team basketball, they win going away.

SCORE: BYU 68, Texas A&M 61

Get all of Craig's daily sports handicapping articles and official sports picks at http://www.CTSportsPicks.com!!

In preparation for Thursday's BYU-Texas A&M first-round NCAA Tournament matchup, let's breakdown the specifics:

Guards

Texas A&M's Derrick Roland, Donald Sloan, and Josh Carter

vs.

BYU's Jackson Emery, Lee Cummard, and Jimmer Fredette

BYU’s trio of Emery, Cummard, and Fredette are all excellent three-point shooters, each shooting over 37 percent from downtown.

A&M's Carter is an excellent long-distance shooter himself, shooting nearly 41 percent, but there is a significant drop-off with Roland and Sloan, who shoot 35 and 25 percent, respectively, from the arc.

Cummard is probably the most versatile and talented player on either team, averaging 17 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. He also brings nearly one block and steal per game, shoots 52 percent from the field, 38 on three-pointers, and 86.8 from the charity stripe.

Fredette has had a very solid season for the Cougars, leading the team in assists (4.2 APG) and coming in second on the team in points (16.2 PPG).

Carter is A&M’s leading scorer with 14 PPG (he'd only be fourth-best on the BYU squad), but you simply cannot ignore his deadly triple.

Sloan and Roland are both erratic on the offensive end, connecting on only 38.1 and 40.5 percent of their shots, respectively.

Big Men

Texas A&M's Bryan Davis and Chinemelu Elonu

vs.

BYU's Jonathan Tavernari and Chris Miles

These two frontcourt duos have very contrasting styles of play.

While Davis and Elonu are swatting machines, averaging 1.3 and 1.6 blocks per game, respectively (that’s a whole lot of facials in one game), Tavernari is BYU’s most three-point happy player. When he's hot from downtown, which he often is (he shoots 38 percent from beyond the arc), he is BYU’s most explosive scorer, but don’t ask him to block any shots on the defensive end.

Tavernari is actually a great rebounder in addition to his shooting abilities, as he pulls down just over 7 boards per game, but he is no match for A&M’s duo, who collectively pull down nearly 14 per.

Davis (52.7 percent from the field) and Elonu (66.7) are both very effective scorers, but not necessarily of the high-volume variety, as they average just over 20 PPG together.

Tavernari has more of a “live by the three, die by the three” approach to his game, as he's launched 216 on the season, which makes him less efficient but scary in terms of ceiling.

Miles is a fairly efficient scorer and a mediocre rebounder but a horrendous free-throw shooter (52 percent on the season).

Bench

B.J. Holmes provides a nice offensive spark off the bench for the Aggies and matches Tavernari in propensity to jack threes.

And why not? He actually shoots better from downtown then he does from the rest of the field (42.5 percent from beyond the arc to 36.8 from the field).

The Cougars don’t rely on their bench as heavily as the Aggies, but have two additional long-range specialists in Lamont Morgan Jr. and Charles Abouo, who are both better than 40 percent from deep this year.

X-Factors

BYU knows what it is going to get from Cummard every game, so I am going with Tavernari and Fredette as the "X-Factors" for the Cougars.

Tavernari, especially, is going to need to bring his "A-game" and knock down some bombs to keep the Aggies' big men honest on defense and take them out of the key, where they are so effective at blocking and altering opponent’s shots. He's also going to have to keep up his solid play to keep some of the pressure off of Cummard.

Josh Carter is my pick for the Aggies' wild card.

It seems that when Carter is playing well and knocking down his shots, the rest of his team feeds off of his energy. He is by far their most explosive scorer, and the Aggies are likely to need all of the points he has to offer, as BYU averages nearly six more per game than the Aggies.

Analysis

BYU is seeking revenge after their 67-62 loss to the Aggies in the first round of last year’s Tournament and is looking for their first win in the tournament since the 1992-93 season. The Cougars have the advantage over A&M in nearly every statistical category (points, assists, steals, turnovers, shooting percentages), and the categories that the Aggies are statistically better at (rebounds and blocks) are so close that it is essentially a wash.

The Aggies definitely don’t want the game to turn into a free-throw contest late in the game, as they connect on fewer than 70 percent of their shots from the charity stripe.

While I fully expect the Cougars to get their revenge and win the game, A&M has a very good team and has a great chance to knock off BYU if the Cougars aren't on the ball.

Besides, the eight-seed versus nine-seed matchup is always a toss-up, with the "lower" seed actually holding the advantage in overall wins.

If BYU wants to get their first tournament win in what seems like ages, though (and earn a potential matchup against the UConn Huskies), they are going to need great play from their "Big Three" of Cummard, Tavernari, and Fredette, plus solid play from their role players.

Will this be the year that BYU gets the monkey off their back and makes some noise in the tournament, or will the Aggies leave the Cougars hoping for a third grudge match next season? Tune in on Thursday to find out, because if history has taught us anything, it should be a great game!

Texas A&M dropped only two spots in the Schwach Indicator standings following its loss to Texas Tech Wednesday night, and so the Aggies appear to be safe for the time being.

For those of you who missed the explanation of this new evaluation tool, here's a quick recap.

As the NCAA tournament approaches every March, one starts hearing college basketball experts talk a lot about top 50 and top 100 wins when discussing a team's possible seed or whether or not a school deserves to be in the Big Dance at all.

I think these two criteria are important as well, but they're not perfect. Why? Because not all top 100 wins are created equal. 

So I set out to create a more precise evaluation system in which teams aren't grouped by 50 or 100, but individually according to their RPI.

I enlisted the help of two friends: Brad Wachtel, director of operations at Hoop Group, a New Jersey-based company that organizes basketball camps and runs an NCAA preseason tournament; and Mike Sverdlov, a computer programmer for New York Life.

We came up with the following formula.

For each victory, a team receives the number of points equal to their opponent's RPI rank subtracted from 344. So if you beat the RPI's 144th-ranked team, you receive 200 points. Beat them at a neutral site, and you multiply that number by 1.25. Beat them on the road and multiply the number by 1.5.

For each loss, a team receives a deduction of the exact number of points equal to their opponent's RPI rank. So you better not lose to the RPI's 300th-ranked team, or you'll lose 300 points. Lose to the top team in the country? No sweat, you drop only one point. But lose at home, and that number is multiplied by 1.5.

This way teams are rewarded for beating better teams (especially on the road) and punished for losing to worse teams (especially at home). 

Check out Mosang Miles's latest slideshow article grouping teams by conferences and ranking the leagues based on the Schwach Indicator.

Without further ado, let's get to the rankings through action on Wednesday, March 11.

1    Connecticut    7932.25
2    Pittsburgh    7827.75
3    North Carolina    7723.00
4    Memphis    7430.00
5    Michigan State    7351.75
6    Duke    7210.00
7    Oklahoma    7155.75
8    Louisville    6876.00
9    Villanova    6273.50
10    Wake Forest    6233.25
11    Kansas    5964.50
12    Xavier    5847.75
13    Florida State    5708.75
14    Clemson    5629.50
15    UCLA    5585.25
16    Marquette    5541.00
17    Washington    5528.00
18    West Virginia    5476.75
19    Illinois    5473.25
20    Siena    5461.25
21    Gonzaga    5398.00
22    Syracuse    5395.25
23    Butler    5308.00
24    Missouri    5281.00
25    Brigham Young    5186.50
26    Creighton    5185.50
27    LSU    5080.00
28    Arizona State    5055.75
29    California    4936.50
30    Dayton    4856.00
31    Purdue    4842.25
32    Utah    4790.00
33    Tennessee    4641.75
34    Texas    4617.50
35    Ohio State    4563.00
36    Niagara    4504.75
37    Texas A&M    4495.25
38    Oklahoma State    4454.00
39    Boston College    4329.75
40    Minnesota    4258.75
41    Saint Mary's    4213.75
42    Wisconsin    4203.50
43    Utah State    4159.00
44    Illinois State    4126.25
45    Northern Iowa    4085.50
46    Penn State    4084.00
47    UNLV    3916.00
48    New Mexico    3890.50
49    Temple    3862.25
50    South Carolina    3792.00
51    UAB    3754.25
52    Rhode Island    3724.75
53    Michigan    3713.75
54    Virginia Commonwealth    3695.75
55    Florida    3644.25
56    Arizona    3596.75
57    Tulsa    3549.00
58    Cleveland State    3533.25
59    Virginia Tech    3495.25
60    USC    3485.00
61    Georgetown    3436.75
62    Western Kentucky    3427.75
63    Providence    3414.75
64    Maryland    3405.00
65    San Diego State    3400.75
66    Auburn    3379.50
67    Davidson    3361.75
68    Kansas State    3348.00
69    Miami (FL)    3213.75
70    Mississippi State    3177.50
71    George Mason    3107.00
72    Vanderbilt    3105.00
73    Washington State    3100.25
74    Northwestern    3060.00
75    Kentucky    3051.50
76    Notre Dame    3014.25
77    UTEP    2994.75
78    Cincinnati    2904.00
79    Stanford    2842.75
80    Duquesne    2735.25
81    Wisconsin-Green Bay    2731.00
82    Nebraska    2708.50
83    Baylor    2666.25
84    Vermont    2481.75
85    Houston    2461.25
86    Old Dominion    2454.50
87    Northeastern    2437.75
88    Hofstra    2351.75
89    Seton Hall    2322.50
90    La Salle    2302.50
91    Saint Joseph's    2270.00
92    Wright State    2227.50
93    Mississippi    2197.25
94    Nevada    2140.50
95    Bradley    2124.25
96    North Carolina State    2094.00
97    Arkansas-Little Rock    2052.00
98    Charleston    2025.00
99    Binghamton    2022.25
100    Buffalo    1977.50
101    Iowa    1977.00
102    Alabama    1908.50
103    American University    1864.00
104    Evansville    1837.00
105    St. John's    1783.25
106    North Dakota State    1777.25
107    Fairfield    1774.00
108    Saint Louis    1677.50
109    Miami (OH)    1651.00
110    Wyoming    1623.25
111    Rider    1528.25
112    Richmond    1426.25
113    Texas Tech    1414.00
114    Boise State    1388.00
115    Drake    1367.50
116    Stephen F. Austin    1338.75
117    Weber State    1301.75
118    James Madison    1195.75
119    Drexel    1169.50
120    Arkansas    1142.00
121    Virginia    1138.50
122    Robert Morris    1129.00
123    Portland State    1058.75
124    UCF    1044.75
125    North Texas    990.50
126    TCU    986.00
127    Milwaukee    984.75
128    Portland    966.75
129    Virginia Military    959.50
130    Wichita State    940.50
131    Akron    913.75
132    Oakland    911.75
133    Iowa State    905.00
134    Troy    886.00
135    Cornell    820.25
136    South Alabama    813.25
137    Oregon State    760.50
138    Kent State    723.50
139    Manhattan    701.50
140    Southern Miss    682.00
141    Idaho    680.50
142    New Mexico State    678.00
143    Georgia Tech    639.00
144    Illinois-Chicago    591.50
145    Bowling Green    580.50
146    San Diego    573.00
147    Southern Illinois    553.50
148    Massachusetts    528.50
149    Liberty    474.75
150    Radford    422.50
151    East Tennessee State    389.50
152    St. Bonaventure    359.50
153    Texas A&M-CC    300.50
154    Pacific    217.50
155    South Florida    213.25
156    Mount St. Mary's    210.50
157    Boston University    193.00
158    Georgia    166.50
159    Citadel    127.75
160    Tennessee-Martin    127.50
161    Morgan State    99.00
162    Marshall    67.50
163    Middle Tennessee State    58.50
164    Oral Roberts    55.50
165    Long Beach State    11.00
166    Sam Houston State    -6.00
167    Charlotte    -17.50
168    Albany    -23.50
169    Oregon    -37.50
170    Tulane    -142.25
171    Morehead State    -149.50
172    Nicholls State    -152.50
173    Santa Clara    -187.75
174    Rutgers    -198.00
175    Ohio    -242.50
176    Chattanooga    -247.50
177    Belmont    -271.50
178    UC Santa Barbara    -308.50
179    Murray State    -340.50
180    DePaul    -380.50
181    George Washington    -403.50
182    Cal State Northridge    -435.00
183    Navy    -438.00
184    Holy Cross    -461.50
185    Wofford    -493.50
186    UMBC    -507.75
187    Louisiana Tech    -516.50
188    Jacksonville    -547.00
189    Missouri State    -574.00
190    Indiana State    -639.00
191    Loyola (IL)    -655.50
192    East Carolina    -678.50
193    Loyola (MD)    -689.50
194    Texas-San Antonio    -704.50
195    Iona    -717.50
196    Montana    -718.00
197    UC Riverside    -729.00
198    Eastern Kentucky    -755.50
199    Stony Brook    -771.50
200    Colorado State    -801.25
201    Western Carolina    -816.75
202    Indiana    -889.50
203    Texas-Arlington    -899.50
204    Canisius    -933.50
205    Alabama State    -950.75
206    New Hampshire    -956.75
207    Austin Peay    -963.00
208    San Jose State    -1083.50
209    Delaware    -1117.00
210    Mercer    -1117.00
211    Idaho State    -1131.50
212    Sacred Heart    -1144.50
213    Cal State Fullerton    -1195.00
214    Hawaii    -1206.00
215    North Carolina-Asheville    -1231.00
216    Montana State    -1241.00
217    Towson    -1292.75
218    Colorado    -1319.25
219    Lamar    -1334.50
220    Jackson State    -1366.00
221    St. Peter's    -1379.50
222    Florida International    -1391.50
223    IUPUI    -1447.50
224    Denver    -1465.00
225    Rice    -1476.00
226    Presbyterian    -1488.50
227    Fresno State    -1515.00
228    Lipscomb    -1565.50
229    Utah Valley    -1567.00
230    San Francisco    -1578.25
231    Samford    -1609.75
232    Arkansas State    -1669.50
233    Georgia State    -1709.50
234    Air Force    -1712.25
235    Eastern Washington    -1721.00
236    Youngstown State    -1731.50
237    Long Island    -1760.50
238    Marist    -1777.75
239    UC Davis    -1843.75
240    Valparaiso    -1875.50
241    William & Mary    -1894.75
242    UC Irvine    -1962.50
243    Southern Methodist    -1974.00
244    Chicago State    -1976.50
245    Yale    -1981.00
246    Texas State    -2004.50
247    Coppin State    -2004.75
248    IPFW    -2008.00
249    Lehigh    -2009.50
250    Harvard    -2044.50
251    Appalachian State    -2075.00
252    Gardner-Webb    -2155.50
253    Ball State    -2185.50
254    Northern Colorado    -2233.00
255    Campbell    -2323.50
256    Stetson    -2324.00
257    Savannah State    -2366.50
258    Longwood    -2367.00
259    South Carolina State    -2367.25
260    Wagner    -2408.50
261    New Orleans    -2425.00
262    Louisiana-Lafayette    -2442.50
263    Central Connecticut State    -2451.00
264    Winthrop    -2479.00
265    North Carolina A&T    -2507.00
266    Quinnipiac    -2534.00
267    Elon    -2544.00
268    Southern Utah    -2558.25
269    South Dakota State    -2613.50
270    Princeton    -2624.00
271    Southeastern Louisiana    -2658.50
272    Tennessee State    -2700.50
273    Columbia    -2704.25
274    North Carolina-Wilmington    -2708.50
275    Pepperdine    -2781.75
276    Detroit    -2787.00
277    Arkansas-Pine Bluff    -2791.00
278    Bethune-Cookman    -2793.25
279    Georgia Southern    -2871.25
280    Prairie View A&M    -2873.50
281    Jacksonville State    -2897.00
282    Hampton    -2956.50
283    McNeese State    -3013.00
284    Louisiana-Monroe    -3035.00
285    Eastern Illinois    -3048.00
286    Pennsylvania    -3122.50
287    USC Upstate    -3124.00
288    Maine    -3132.75
289    Cal State Bakersfield    -3135.50
290    Northern Arizona    -3182.50
291    Western Michigan    -3192.50
292    Centenary    -3275.50
293    Brown    -3345.50
294    Coastal Carolina    -3347.00
295    Central Michigan    -3352.50
296    Tennessee Tech    -3375.00
297    Central Arkansas    -3380.75
298    Fordham    -3386.00
299    St. Francis (NY)    -3403.00
300    Norfolk State    -3503.50
301    Texas-Pan American    -3511.50
302    Northwestern State    -3608.00
303    Army    -3643.00
304    Hartford    -3657.75
305    Cal Poly    -3709.75
306    Florida A&M    -3754.25
307    Bucknell    -3788.50
308    Florida Atlantic    -3808.75
309    Northern Illinois    -3809.50
310    Charleston Southern    -3836.50
311    Colgate    -3865.50
312    Toledo    -3870.00
313    Florida Gulf Coast    -3871.50
314    Lafayette    -3873.50
315    UMKC    -3984.75
316    Bryant University    -4070.75
317    Western Illinois    -4150.00
318    Loyola Marymount    -4208.50
319    Alabama A&M    -4231.00
320    Dartmouth    -4236.50
321    Delaware State    -4449.50
322    High Point    -4458.00
323    Houston Baptist    -4504.50
324    Eastern Michigan    -4505.00
325    North Florida    -4528.00
326    Furman    -4541.00
327    Howard    -4611.50
328    Monmouth    -4711.75
329    Fairleigh Dickinson    -4734.00
330    St. Francis (PA)    -4746.50
331    UNC Greensboro    -4751.00
332    Southern University    -4797.50
333    Mississippi Valley State    -4884.50
334    Winston-Salem    -5357.50
335    Texas Southern    -5500.50
336    Kennesaw State    -5543.00
337    Grambling State    -5761.50
338    North Carolina Central    -5962.50
339    Alcorn State    -6059.50
340    Maryland-Eastern Shore    -6187.00
341    Sacramento State    -6450.50
342    Southeast Missouri State    -6615.25
343    N.J.I.T.    -8848.50

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man" is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com

After last night's activity, we have our first team from a BCS conference to move down. Texas Tech came back from a double-digit deficit to beat Texas A&M. The Aggies have moved down to a seven seed (and I'll admit I had them a bit high at a six to begin with).

Portland State and Robert Morris used last-second heroics to clinch their bids. Had Montana State been able to hold off the Vikings, we would have seen one of the proud, the few—the teams with overall losing records. 

Bracket Projection (teams who have clinched are in bold)

East Region

1 UConn v 16 Radford

2 Duke v 15 Morgan State

3 Washington v 14 Portland State

4 Clemson v 13 Stephen F. Austin

5 Gonzaga v 12 New Mexico

6 West Virginia v 11 South Carolina

7 Texas A&M v 10 Wisconsin

8 Ohio State v 9 Dayton

South Region

1 UNC v 16 Morehead State

2 Oklahoma v 15 East Tennessee State

3 Villanova v 14 Buffalo

4 Xavier v 13 Cleveland State

5 Syracuse v 12 Michigan

6 Purdue v 11 San Diego State

7 Tennessee v 10 Siena

8 Arizona State v 9 Texas

Midwest Region

1 Pitt v 16 Play-In (Cal State Northridge v Alabama St.)

2 Michigan State v 15 Cornell

3 Kansas v 14 North Dakota State

4 Florida State v 13 Northern Iowa

5 UCLA v 12 Western Kentucky

6 Marquette v 11 Arizona

7 Utah v 10 Boston College

8 LSU v 9 Minnesota

West Region

1 Memphis v 16 Chattanooga

2 Louisville v 15 Robert Morris

3 Wake Forest v 14 Binghamton

4 Missouri v 13 American

5 Illinois v 12 VCU

6 BYU v 11 Creighton

7 Oklahoma State v 10 Utah State

8 Butler v 9 California

With 18:42 left in the second half it looked like the Texas Tech Red Raiders (14-18, 3-13) season was getting closer to coming to an end, trailing 50-29 to the Texas A&M Aggies (23-9, 9-7).

Tech head coach Pat Knight has said that his players have fought hard all season. Led by Mike Singletary the Red Raiders rallied to an 88-83 victory in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament in Oklahoma City.

Singletary, who averages 11.1 points per game, scored a Big 12 tournament record and a career high of 43 points. 35 of those points came in the last 13 minutes of the game.

In the first half, Texas A&M dominated starting the game with a 15-2 run in the opening six minutes. Tech started the game shooting 0-for-10 from the field and turned the ball over four times. Singletary made Tech’s first basket with 13:16 left in the first half.

The closest the Red Raiders would get to A&M in the first half was nine points. Tech had 12 first half turnovers. A&M led 48-29 at halftime.

After the Aggies scored the first two points of the second half on a pair of Bryan Davis free throws, Darko Cohadarevic scored six points in a 17-second time span to cut A&M’s lead to 52-35. Cohadarevic scored 10 points.

A&M would increase their lead to 18 with 15 minutes left in the half. Donald Sloan and Chinemelu Elonu both made layups giving the Aggies a 56-38 lead.

In the last 15 minutes, the Red Raiders started their rally. Nick Okorie and Alan Voskuil both made layups to cut the lead to 56-42. Michael Prince got a steal that led to an easy dunk by Singletary, which cut A&M’s lead to 56-44 with 13:03 left in the game.

With Tech down 60-50 with 10 minutes left in the game, Singletary would score Tech’s next 29 points, scoring the game-winning basket with 44 seconds left.  Singletary’s 29 consecutive points without a teammate scoring is the second longest in the NCAA. Bill Mlkvy of Temple scored 54 in a row in a game against Wilkes in 1951.

Voskuil’s two free throws with 26 seconds left ended Singletary’s consecutive point run and gave Tech an 81-78 lead. John Roberson extended the lead to five with 16 seconds left, making two free throws.

The Aggies were not going to let the Red Raiders clinch the comeback too easily. Josh Carter hit a three-pointer with nine seconds left to cut Tech’s lead to 83-81.

After Roberson was fouled a second later, he missed his second free throw. Roberson fouled Sloan with four seconds left, and Sloan made both free throws cutting Tech’s lead to one. Voskuil was fouled with three seconds left and extended Tech’s lead to three.

Derrick Roland turned the ball over and Singletary clinched the game for Tech hitting both free throws.

The Red Raiders have won two of their last three games and avoided being swept by Texas A&M.

Along with Singletary’s 43, Voskuil scored 14 points and Cohadarevic scored his second best season total (10). Cohadarevic scored 12 points against Stephen F. Austin last December.

Voskuil led the team in rebounds with seven and Roberson led the team in assists with four.

The Aggies’ loss ended a six-game winning streak in the Big 12 and a three-game winning streak against Tech.

Sloan led A&M in scoring with 22, Carter scored 15, Davis scored 11, and Elonu scored 10. Carter led the team in rebounds with eight, and Sloan led the team in assists with three.

The Red Raiders will face the third seeded Missouri Tigers (25-6, 12-4) Thursday, while the Aggies will have to wait until Selection Sunday to learn their fate.

How do you blow a 21-point lead when you're less than 20 minutes away from locking up an NCAA berth? That's exactly what Texas A&M did Wednesday night in the first round of the Big XII tournament against Texas Tech. The Aggies will now have to wait three agonizing days until Selection Sunday to find out their fate.

As for me, I still have them in.

I dropped A&M from an 8 to a 9 seed after its loss, but the Aggies should still be safe unless a ton of bubbles go on a run this weekend. Texas A&M still has strong computer numbers with an RPI of 34 and a SOS of 43. The Aggies are 4-5 versus the top 50 and 8-8 against the top 100 with wins over Arizona, LSU, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Missouri. That's a lot better than the Wallflowers they will be compared to.

My last four in are: New Mexico, Creighton, St. Mary’s, San Diego State

My first four out are: South Carolina, Florida, UNLV, Virginia Tech

Congratulations to Robert Morris (NEC) and Portland State (Big Sky) who punched tickets to the Dance Wednesday.

Don’t forget to check out the latest Schwach Indicator rankings to see how this new evaluation tool is affecting my projections.

I usually like to break teams down into three categories. "Wallflowers" are bubble teams. Everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor.

Elite teams are safely in the field, "Dancing with a hottie," and in the middle are the schools that are "Dancing with their sister."

But the sisters are all gone now. There’s no gray area anymore. You’re either in or you’re a Wallflower in need of a win or two this week to secure a bid.

ACC

 

Dancing with a hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (2), Wake Forest (3), Florida State (4), Clemson (5)

 

Wallflowers: Boston College (10), Virginia Tech (fourth out), Maryland (seventh out), Miami (14th out)

BC could’ve locked up a spot if they had just won at NC State last Wednesday, but a loss there dropped the Eagles’ computer numbers (RPI 58, SOS 59), so they might need to beat Virginia in the first round of the ACC tournament to feel completely safe come Sunday.

Va Tech probably needed only one win against Duke, UNC, or FSU, but the Hokies went 0-3 down the stretch to finish league play at 7-9. With triumphs over BC, Wake, and Clemson, they still have a shot, but they must beat Miami Thursday.

A victory over Carolina in the quarters might be needed as well, depending on how the other Wallflowers fare this week.

Maryland really damaged its chances by losing at Virginia last weekend. The Terps have better non-conference wins than Virginia Tech (Michigan State, Michigan), but their only big ACC victory was by three at home against North Carolina, and that’s why Maryland will most likely have to beat both NC State and Wake Forest to reach the Dance.

Miami also blew its chance to finish with a .500 record in the ACC when the Hurricanes fell at Georgia Tech.

The 8/9 game against VT is an elimination contest, and with just a 2-7 record versus the RPI top 50, Miami will definitely have to beat UNC as well and possibly advance to the finals.

Big East

 

Dancing with a hottie: Pittsburgh (1), Connecticut (1), Louisville (2), Villanova (4), Syracuse (5), Marquette (6), West Virginia (7)

Wallflowers: Providence (11th out)

First Providence had to play 16th-seeded DePaul instead of attempting to go 3-0 against Cincinnati, which really would've improved the Friars' résumé. Then PC struggled against the Blue Demons in a nationally televised game. That leaves the Friars needing a victory over regular season champ Louisville to secure a bid in the NCAA tournament.

The win over Syracuse is nice and the victory over Pitt is enormous, but that’s not enough. With a 2-7 record against the top 50 and an RPI of 71, the Friars are faced with a win or go home situation.

Notre Dame's remote chances were dashed when the Irish lost to West Virginia. 

Big Ten

 

Dancing with a hottie: Michigan State (1), Illinois (4), Purdue (5), Ohio State (9)

Wallflowers: Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Michigan (10), Penn State (fifth out), Northwestern (eighth out)

The Big Ten tournament will have the biggest impact on the bubble picture. With six teams vying for only four or five spots, it could get ugly—even uglier than regular Big Ten basketball.

Despite being the higher seed in Friday’s 4/5 game, Wisconsin needs the win more. Ohio State is safe with a 9-9 record versus the top 100 and its worst loss coming at No. 70 Northwestern. 

The Badgers, meanwhile, were just 4-9 against the top 50 and lost to No. 113 Iowa. In the end, however, with each team finishing conference play at 10-8, they should both make the Dance.

The 8/9 matchup between Minnesota and Northwestern is an elimination game. The Gophers are definitely in better shape with a 9-9 league mark, eight top-100 wins, and an RPI of 41. They wouldn’t have to beat Michigan State in the quarters.

The Wildcats would have to take down Sparty because they missed a golden opportunity to finish .500 in Big Ten play when they lost by five at Ohio State Sunday. 

With a 6-10 record versus the top 100 and an RPI of 70, Northwestern needs at least two wins to get in.

Michigan’s win at Minnesota on Saturday was huge. The Wolverines swept the Gophers to finish 9-9 in conference. That, combined with out-of-league triumphs over UCLA and Duke, means Michigan only has to beat Iowa to go dancing.

Penn State is an interesting case. The Nittany Lions were in after they beat Illinois but then out again after they lost to the Hawkeyes. 

A 10-8 record in the Big Ten is good, as are six wins against the top 50, but a non-conference slate that included eight games against sub-200 teams has put a crimp in the Lions’ computer numbers (RPI 66, SOS 81). 

A win over Indiana Thursday is a must, but they may also need to beat Purdue in the quarterfinals.

Big XII

 

Dancing with a hottie: Oklahoma (2), Kansas (2), Missouri (3), Texas (8), Oklahoma State (9)

Wallflowers: Texas A&M (9), Kansas State (ninth out)

While Texas and Oklahoma State wrapped up NCAA berths with first round victories over Colorado and Iowa State, respectively, Texas A&M lost to Texas Tech and must now root against Wallflowers until Sunday.

While Kansas State is seeded fourth in the Big XII tournament, the Wildcats are lower in my pecking order than UT, OSU, and A&M thanks to an RPI of 75 and the 98th strength of schedule. They have to beat Texas and maybe also Kansas.

Pac-10

 

Dancing with a hottie: Washington (3), Arizona State (5), UCLA (6), California (8)

Wallflowers: Arizona (9), USC (10th out), Washington State (12th out)

Washington State kept its outside shot of an at-large alive with a convincing 22-point victory over Oregon Wednesday night. The Cougars have defeated UCLA, Arizona, and ASU in the past three weeks and are now two wins away from getting in the conversation.

Arizona picked up an important win over Stanford to break a four-game slide and finish 9-9 in conference. But with an RPI of 53 and losses to fellow Wallflowers Texas A&M and UNLV, the Wildcats may have to beat Arizona State in the Pac-10’s 4/5 contest.

USC finished strong by sweeping the Oregon schools at home to get to .500 in the league, but with a 2-8 mark against the top 50, the Trojans will have to reach the title game to have a shot at an at-large.

SEC

 

Dancing with a hottie: LSU (7), Tennessee (8)

Wallflowers: South Carolina (first out), Florida (second out), Auburn (sixth out), Kentucky (13th out)

With Cleveland State's victory over Butler in the Horizon final Tuesday night, South Carolina is now my first team out. Despite a 10-6 conference mark, the Gamecocks have just one top 50 win (over No. 49 Florida). USC can’t afford a slip-up in the SEC quarters against Mississippi State or Georgia. 

The Gamecocks will probably also need to beat LSU in the semis now.

Florida kept its head above water by beating Kentucky on Saturday, but a 2-6 mark against the top 50 means the Gators have a lot more work to do.

First, they must beat Arkansas. Then, they play an elimination game against surging Auburn, which has won four straight, including a victory over LSU.

Kentucky’s four-game losing streak has the Wildcats in need of at least a finals appearance to make the Big Dance. In fact, with an RPI of 79, they may need to win the whole thing.

Mid-Majors

 

Dancing with a hottie: Memphis (3), Xavier (4), Utah (6), BYU (6), Dayton (7), Gonzaga (7), Butler (8)

Wallflowers: Creighton (11), New Mexico (11), Saint Mary’s (11), San Diego State (11), Utah State (12), UNLV (third out), Temple (15th out), Rhode Island (16th out)

Despite the loss to Cleveland State, the Butler Bulldogs remain safely in the field thanks to their strong 24 RPI and 12-3 record versus the top 100. They own wins over Xavier, Northwestern, UAB, and Davidson, not to mention two over Cleveland State.

Saint Mary’s did not do itself any favors losing by 25 to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference final Monday night. Even with Patty Mills in the lineup, the Gaels were completely blown out and will now become the most talked about bubble until Sunday.

I still have them in thanks to wins over fellow Wallflowers San Diego State, Utah State, and Providence, but their hold on one of the final spots is very precarious.

The problem is for those wins to look better, Saint Mary’s needs those teams to win some games this week, but if they do that, they may take the Gaels' spot.

There’s no question Saint Mary’s needs Utah State to win the WAC. Not only would that make the Gaels’ win look that much better, but it would prevent the Aggies from possibly stealing an at-large.

In the meantime, the team from the WCC will be rooting hard against Florida, Va Tech, Penn State, and every other bubble.

With Davidson losing to Charleston in the Southern Conference semis, there is absolutely no way Stephen Curry and the Wildcats deserve an at-large bid. They have one win over the top 100.

Creighton, on the other hand, still has a chance to make the field, despite an early exit from the Missouri Valley tournament. When comparing the final 14 teams I had vying for the last four spots, the Bluejays had the best numbers. 

They have an RPI of 39, an 11-5 record away from home, a 2-2 mark against the top 50 and 10-5 versus the top 100, and they won 11 of their final 12. Creighton also beat New Mexico and Dayton, which both appear to be heading to the NCAA tournament.

I currently have San Diego State in and UNLV out thanks to the Aztecs’ sweep of the Rebels, but that could change when the two schools battle it out a third time in an elimination game Thursday. 

Despite good non-conference wins over Louisville and Arizona, UNLV may need to win a couple of games in the Mountain West tournament because it’s playing at home and it needs to offset terrible losses at TCU and Colorado State.

My brief love affair with Rhode Island ended when the Rams lost at home to No. 156 UMass on Saturday. URI and Temple each need to make the A-10 final to have any shot at an at-large.

Automatic Bids

12 seeds: Siena, Western Kentucky, Cleveland State

13 seeds: Northern Iowa, VCU, American, Stephen F. Austin

14 seeds: Portland State, Binghamton, North Dakota State, Buffalo

15 seeds: Robert Morris, Cornell, East Tennessee State, Morgan State

16 seeds: Radford, Morehead State, Cal State Northridge, Chattanooga, Alabama State

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man" is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com

No. 6 Texas A&M (23-8, 9-7) vs. No. 11 Texas Tech (13-18, 3-13)

Sat. March 11 at 9:30 p.m. EST

Spread: Texas A&M -6.5

Backcourt Advantage: Even

Senior guard Josh Carter (14.0 PPG) leads the Aggies into the Big 12 tournament. By winning its last six games, Texas A&M has all but punched its ticket to the NCAA tournament, but the Aggies aren't satisfied yet. Carter and junior Donald Sloan (11.4 PPG) are poised to make another run in the Big 12 tournament. Last year they made it to the semi-finals before losing to the eventual national champions Kansas Jayhawks.

Standing in their way is a disappointing Texas Tech team who has had its worst season since before 2001 when Bob Knight arrived. Senior guard Alan Voskuil (14.1 PPG) and sophomore John Roberson (14.4 PPG) have been very streaky this season. While they have the potential to keep the Red Raiders in this game, it's more likely that their team will self-destruct around them.

Frontcourt Advantage: Texas A&M

The Aggies outrebounded the Red Raiders 40-29 and 45-28 in their two meetings this season. Juniors Bryan Davis (10.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.2 BPG) and Chinemelu Elonu (10.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.6 BPG) have been dominant inside for the Aggies this season. They should have their way again inside against a young Texas Tech frontcourt, led by sophomore D'Walyn Roberts and freshman Robert Lewandowski.

Momentum: Texas A&M

The Aggies, winners of six straight overall, won both regular season meetings against the Red Raiders this season. They won 79-70 in College Station on Jan. 28 and then 79-73 in Lubbock on Feb. 21. Texas A&M's size advantage against Texas Tech played a large role in both wins, as the Red Raiders were unable to match up inside against the bigger, more athletic Aggies.

The third time won't be the charm for Texas Tech against A&M.

Shaun's Pick: Texas A&M -6.5

No. 15 Missouri (25-5, 12-3) at Texas A&M (22-8, 8-7)

Sat. Mar. 7 at 2:00 p.m. EST

Spread: Pick 'Em

Backcourt Advantage: Even

Senior Josh Carter (14.1 PPG) will be determined to win his final home game for Texas A&M. More importantly, the Aggies are jockeying for position for next week's conference playoffs and trying to put a stamp on their NCAA tournament bid with a signature win against a ranked team.

A&M is currently tied for sixth with Kansas State and only one game behind Texas and Oklahoma State for fourth. A loss here and a loss in the first round of the Big 12 tournament could put the Aggies on the proverbial bubble.

Missouri, coming off a 73-64 win over Oklahoma, will try to push the tempo and force turnovers with its pressure defense.

Frontcourt Advantage: Missouri

While juniors Bryan Davis (10.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.2 BPG) and Chinemelu Elonu (10.2 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.6 BPG) have been dominant inside for the Aggies, especially on the defensive end, it will be the speed and quickness of the Missouri frontcourt that will give the Tigers the advantage here.

Seniors DeMarre Carroll (17.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG) and Leo Lyons (14.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG) will be able to dictate the action against a slower Texas A&M front line.

Momentum: Missouri

With a win, the Tigers have a chance to earn a share of the Big 12 regular season title after finishing 6-10 and in 10th place just a season ago.  They will need Kansas to lose to Texas to force a tie for first at 13-3. Oklahoma would be able to make it a three-way tie with a win over Oklahoma State.

It's been a remarkable season for coach Mike Anderson and his Tigers. They are a better team than Texas A&M, but can not take them lightly. The Aggies will come to play as they are not yet a lock for the NCAA tournament and still have something to prove to the selection committee.

This could be a trap game for Missouri, but I think they will find a way to win.

Shaun's Pick: Missouri