Arizona Wildcats Basketball

These were the major concerns about Sean Miller's hire at Arizona five years ago this month:

— No West Coast recruiting ties.

— No experience as a head coach at a major program after coming from, what is considered a mid-major, Xavier.

— No history of generating high-level talent that was selected in the NBA's first round.

Seems like that was more like 15 years ago instead of only five. Miller has reached third base, knocking the ball almost out of the park by answering those three significant questions without any doubt of his capability. Not even a hint. He has not reached home (a national title) yet, but how many coaches go that deep only 10 years into their career?

For every Kevin Ollie (who won the title with UConn in only his second season) there are countless others who took at least 10 years to win a title, including John Wooden and Mike Krzyzewski (each of whom won their first title in their 16th year as a coach), Bob Knight (11 years), Lute Olson (24 years) and Jim Boeheim (27).

Miller's ability to recruit and lead Arizona's program like a successful CEO of an elite company has provided the players a system to develop for the next level. In today's age of instant gratification—the era of the one-and-dones—Miller's ability to produce NBA talent is one of his greatest attributes.

Nobody believed that could be written when Miller was hired April 6, 2009.

Tuesday's announcement by Aaron Gordon and Nick Johnson that they will enter the NBA draft likely increases Miller's draft production to five players in his first five seasons in Tucson.

Derrick Williams was the second overall pick in 2011. Last year, Solomon Hill was a first-round pick and Grant Jerrett was a second-round selection.

Gordon will likely be Miller's second lottery pick at Arizona. If Johnson elevates his stock in workouts for NBA teams from now until the draft on June 26, he can become the coach's fourth first-round choice overall.

In five seasons at Xavier, the only NBA talent Miller produced was guard Derrick Brown, a second-round choice by Charlotte in 2009. Brown lasted three seasons in the NBA, mostly with the talent-strapped Bobcats, before having to play professionally in Russia this season.

Miller's NBA production next season most likely will include four players—Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brandon Ashley, Kaleb Tarczewski and Stanley Johnson.

That means Miller can realistically have nine Arizona players drafted in only six seasons.

The late Fred Snowden produced five NBA draft picks in the first two rounds (the standard today) in his 10 years with Arizona. Why that feat is significant: The highest an Arizona player was drafted in the NBA before Snowden's arrival in 1972 was Warren Rustand in the fourth round in 1965.

Olson produced 32 NBA draft picks in the first two rounds in his 24 years at Arizona (although Jerryd Bayless, Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger concluded their Arizona careers in 2008 and 2009 under interim coaches).

Olson's most significant run of NBA production in a six-year span was 13 players drafted in the first two rounds from 1996 to 2001.

Arizona is tied with Duke and Kentucky with the most draft picks (36) since 1988. Arizona should stay near the top of that list with Miller as coach.

The product of that success: Recruiting at the highest level. Kids who are in the eighth and ninth grade will want to be the next Gordon. Tyler Dorsey, a Class of 2015 5-star guard from Los Angeles, has already pledged to Arizona despite not experiencing the entire recruiting process, including official visits.

That's because fellow California headliners Gordon and Stanley Johnson are NBA players in the making with Miller as head coach.

John Calipari is not who he is because of a roster full of seniors or role players. The best coaches of today reload instead of rebuild. Miller belongs in that group along with Calipari, Krzyzewski, Boeheim, Bill Self, Roy Williams, Tom Izzo, Rick Pitino, etc.

Miller is in uncharted territory with Gordon being his first one-and-done (or "succeed and proceed" as Calipari puts it) talent.

Believe it or not, Miller has more versatility with Ashley, Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson playing the inside-outside game in which Gordon played in dominating fashion late in the season.

Gordon said appropriately Tuesday during a press conference at McKale Center in Tucson: "Arizona is going to be successful with or without me. That's just the nature of the program."

Arizona is no longer sink-or-swim after losing talented players like the Wildcats were after losing Williams after his sophomore season in the 2011 draft. After that season, the Wildcats lost in the first round of the NIT.

"One of the things that Derrick Williams did for us is somebody like Aaron Gordon came here because of Derrick Williams," Miller said in the press conference. "He watched what happened to Derrick in two years, how much he improved. He became the No. 2 pick. He's part of the NBA. Same thing for Solomon.

"And in our case, the same thing for so many players. You watched Channing Frye play last night in a real pivotal game. He's one of ours. You're going to watch Andre Iguodala play in the NBA playoffs. Solomon Hill can win the NBA championship with the Pacers.

"All of that is a big picture and that's why you talk about a player's program. If you do it right by those guys, they may leave early but they're gonna have far more of an impact if they're successful than whether they stay here for an extra year. It's up to us to continue to recruit, to make sure we know they're not going to be here very long in certain cases."

Miller and his staff know they are in that situation. Miller also knows he is now in position of going to the batter's box each year with the confidence of touching them all.

Read Javier Morales' blogs at AllSportsTucson.com. Follow him on Twitter at @JavierJMorales

As expected, Arizona forward Aaron Gordon announced Tuesday that he will forgo his final three seasons of eligibility and enter the 2014 NBA draft.   

The Daily Wildcat passed along the news, also sharing that teammate Nick Johnson is declaring as well:

Gordon, who averaged 12.4 points and 8.0 rebounds in his only season under Sean Miller, is widely considered a lock to be a top-10 pick. His decision to enter the draft has been seen as a foregone conclusion since Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports indicated early Monday he was planning to make an announcement this week.   

Gordon making his intentions known also helps clarify the top of draft boards. Jabari Parker is one of the only likely top-10 selections whose decision is still unknown. He's expected to be a top-three pick. Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Noah Vonleh and others have already declared.

The NBA's cutoff date for early entrants is April 27. Players who do not sign representation are eligible to withdraw anytime before June 16—10 days before the draft. 

At any rate, Gordon is at no risk to drop out. A 6'9" athletic power forward with a developing offensive game, I've graded only Julius Randle higher among 4s and have Gordon as the sixth-best player in the 2014 class. ESPN's Chad Ford (subscription required) has a similar evaluation.

Assuming Parker enters the draft, Gordon likely has a ceiling of the No. 4 pick. Wiggins, Embiid and Parker are a clear category over the likes of Dante Exum, Gordon, Randle and Vonley. The latter foursome each hold All-Star potential but are not as likely to be transformational pieces. They also carry semi-significant risks in one way or another.

For Gordon, it largely comes down to his offensive development and position. He's slight for his size at 225 pounds, so a coaching staff may be tempted to develop him as a power forward—a mistake considering his skill set but nonetheless a potential pitfall that may harm his long-term trajectory. Gordon is an improving shooter and stretched out to the college three-point line with increasing ease during the NCAA tournament.

He's still a net negative when pushed away from the basket. According to Synergy Sports (subscription required), Gordon knocked down just 29.3 percent of his jump shots as a freshman. Tracking data showed him to be especially poor on jumpers inside the three-point arc, making just 9 of 40 attempts. He was about average (35.6 percent) from three. 

Although Blake Griffin is most often the comparison thrown around, Griffin was far more advanced offensively coming out of Oklahoma. Despite his athleticism, Gordon has not developed into an elite offensive rebounder yet. Early in his career, expect Gordon to rely heavily on transition buckets, baseline cuts and pick-and-roll crashes, all areas where he showed promise under Miller. 

Where Gordon separates himself, though, is on defense. He may be the most advanced defender among potential lottery picks. He executes team-defense concepts extraordinarily for someone not yet 19, uses his body well in the post and is agile enough to hop out on perimeter defenders when guards need help. Arizona had the most efficient defense in the country, per Ken Pomeroy. 

“I can say that I don't think anyone that I've coached have been successful as a freshman doing that," Miller told reporters in February of Gordon's versatility.

Adding strength will be a key component in deciding whether Gordon can continue trending upward as a defender. He would initially fit well with teams that hedge hard on pick-and-rolls because his agility allows him to recover much quicker than a typical big. 

Given the landscape of collegiate sports, it's hard to blame Gordon for entering the draft early. He would probably benefit developmentally from another year at Arizona, where he could have morphed into the offensive focal point with teammate Nick Johnson also entering the draft.

But even if Gordon fails to show scouts improvement in the pre-draft process, his stock isn't going out of the lottery. Teams will fall too much in love with his long-term potential.

As for potential fits, we'll have to see how the lottery shakes out. He'd be an interesting piece next to Nikola Vucevic in Orlando or DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento, though, if we're going to speculate in the moment. 

For now, however, the overarching storyline might be to wonder how Miller is going to reload. One of the most experienced teams in the nation last season, Arizona stands to lose Gordon, Johnson and possibly even Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

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A top contributor for a premier team throughout the year, Aaron Gordon had a terrific freshman season for Arizona. Only he wasn't a consistent performer on offense.

Gordon didn't regularly light up the box scores or take over games as a scorer. Looking back, I actually think the Blake Griffin comparisons from last summer now seem pretty silly. 

Not because Gordon can't play, but because they're two different types of forwards with unrelated strengths, other than high-flying, above-the-rim athleticism. 

Gordon's current and projected strengths revolve around his invaluable two-way versatility.

Usually when you think of a freak athlete like Gordon, the first thing that comes to mind is offensive upside. But not here. Arguably Gordon's most appealing strength is his defense, where he's a blanket that can take the shape of just about any opposing player.

He finished No. 1 in the country in defensive win shares, a stat that estimates the number of wins contributed by a player due to his defense, per Sports-Reference.com.

Gordon has the foot speed and lateral quickness to stay with guards and wings on the perimeter:

He's very tough to lose or shake, and he has the length and quickness to recover if he ends up getting caught in traffic or beat with a first step:

Gordon also has the size and length to defend big men in the post:

He's savvy defensively. He's figured out some of the nuances of the game, like how to contest shots and bother guys without fouling:

Gordon has the chance to evolve into a smothering defensive weapon who can guard almost every position on the floor. 

Offensively, he's not as polished, but his high basketball IQ and constant energy have helped make up for an unrefined set of skills. Gordon isn't a guy you feature or isolate. He has the ability to impact a game without having his number called or needing the ball in his hands. 

For starters, Gordon grabbed the most offensive rebounds in the Pac-12 with 102, and he finished with 54 putbacks on the season, per Hoop-Math. That's 108 points alone off cleaning up others' misses.

He's also an excellent passer, having averaged two assists per game with limited touches in the offense. Gordon sees the floor and demonstrates a fairly disciplined shot selection. He takes the good ones and resists the urges to force the bad ones. Gordon finds ways to score opportunistically despite lacking the ability to create.

The rest of his game is powered by his world-class athleticism and nonstop motor. 

In the half court, he scores off cuts, slashes, slips and flashes. Gordon finishes over 70 percent of his shots around the rim, per Hoop-Math, a reflection of his devastating blend of hops and coordination. 

In transition, Gordon isn't just a threat as a finisher on the break; off a defensive rebound, he's a threat to start it. A number of times this year we've seen Gordon handle the ball and take it coast to coast before the defense can set. 

In the pros, he'll probably end up playing more power forward on a full-time basis, considering his three-ball isn't threatening enough to stretch the floor as a wing. 

However, he did actually find the zone from outside late in the season, and he finished with a respectable 35.6 percent clip shooting from beyond the arc. When Gordon can catch, gather, square and release in rhythm, he actually looks pretty comfortable.

Thinking long term, I kind of dig the Shawn Marion comparison myself—a forward who moves like a 3, rebounds like a 4, defends both positions and finishes plays within the offense. But the Kenyon Martin (in his prime) comparison isn't a bad one, either:

Gordon is a unique player in the class, given the various angles and cylinders he can impact a game from. 

Don't get too caught up on his 12.4-point-per-game average as a freshman. Between his defense, finishing ability, rebounding and passing, along with his offensive instincts as an opportunistic scorer, there are plenty of other ways for Gordon to make his presence felt. 

Arizona Wildcats freshman Aaron Gordon lived up to the hype in his first year in Tucson, and now he's preparing to make the leap to the NBA.

According to Marc J. Spears of Yahoo Sports, Gordon will forgo the rest of his collegiate eligibility and enter what will be a loaded 2014 draft class: "University of Arizona freshman forward Aaron Gordon will announce this week he's entering the 2014 NBA draft, source told Yahoo Sports."

Staying an extra year in school may have benefited any number of the top prospects. Eric Bossi of Rivals.com certainly felt Gordon should stay in college for another season:

Gordon isn't quite the same prospect as Kansas' Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid or Duke's Jabari Parker, but he is essentially a lock to go in the top 10. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman has him at No. 9 in his latest mock draft. 

At 6'9", 225 pounds, the 18-year-old still has room to pack on some weight. What helps is that Gordon has noticeable natural strength, excellent athleticism for his size and sports great versatility as a result.

The Wildcats ranked No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, and Gordon was the anchor. He's capable of shutting down just about any position on the floor.

Gordon isn't the most polished offensive player, and how he develops on that end of the court will ultimately determine whether he is viewed as an elite prospect from this talented class. One obvious red flag in that regard is that he shot 42.2 percent from the free-throw line this past season.

Still, he averaged 12.4 points, eight rebounds and two assists. The Pac-12 Freshman of the Year also shot an efficient 49.5 percent from the floor and flashed some potential from beyond the arc, hitting three-pointers at a 35.6 percent rate on just over one attempt per contest.

Matt Moore of CBSSports took a closer look at the raw ability Gordon has on offense in his evaluation:

Synergy Sports has Gordon in the 12th percentile for jump shots, 15th percentile in post-up situations, and 13th percentile in offensive putbacks. That last one is the bigger concern. You can improve your jumper, you can improve your post-up situations. But with Gordon's wingspan and athleticism, he should be producing more points on putbacks.

Arizona was a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and after a run to the Elite Eight, there is a foundation of winning for Gordon to draw on as he takes the next step in his bright future.

Wildcats head coach Sean Miller praised how well Gordon handled the hype that surrounded him as a 5-star recruit out of Archbishop Mitty High School (San Jose, Calif.), per a March 15 report by AZCentral.com's Paola Boivin:

When you have someone as highly touted as Aaron before he even shows up at Arizona, no matter how good of a kid, there's always going to be ups and downs, no matter how talented of a player. But I could never have predicted how well he's handled just being part of the team, being part of the university, being unselfish. He's the same way every day...He wants to play well, but it's always been about the win.

When you have someone with that mind-set who is also really talented, it's hard to be selfish if you're his teammate. Here's somebody who has every reason to sometimes be selfish and I don't know if he's ever been that.

With how much of a mismatch he can be for players at his position, Gordon has been able to rely on his physical gifts at every level of competition. Such won't really be the case when he arrives in the NBA, so he must polish up his skill set, develop into a better outside shooter and continue being aggressive. 

Perhaps most importantly, he'll need to work on his free throws so he's not a complete liability in close games. We've seen Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin improve in that regard, and Gordon will need to as well.

The two high-flyers have been compared before, and free-throw shooting has helped elevate Griffin's game to another level this season. 

Arizona-bound Stanley Johnson spent most of his high school career playing like a man among boys.

The 6'6" wing is "the first player in California history to win four upper-division state championships," according to the Los Angeles Times' Eric Sondheimer.

Johnson is currently the No. 7 player in the 2014 ESPN Top 100 and will be suiting up for Sean Miller's Arizona Wildcats next year. 

When Jerry Meyer, director of basketball scouting for 247Sports, was asked "Who in your opinion is the best wing player in this class," he tweeted, "Stanley Johnson."

How did he do in the McDonald's All-American Game in Chicago on Wednesday night? Let's take a quick look and see how he graded out.

Before we actually look at what he did in terms of basketball, we need to mention that a Twitter search of "Stanley Johnson's hair" comes up with a variety of opinions:

Some people were into his look:

and

Others were not too crazy about his coiffure:

and

The jury is out on Johnson's do. We can leave the hairstyle analysis for others. What we do know from taking in the game is that Stanley Johnson can hoop.

Assertive Scorer

Simply put, Johnson is fun to watch. He is constantly in attack mode. He can put it in from distance or he can go to the rim and throw down a ferocious dunk.

Evan Daniels, Scout.com's national recruiting analyst, declared:

On a night where everyone is looking to get theirs, Johnson made his mark.

He was 4-of-10 from the field. He hit two 18-foot jumpers and threw down two slams, finishing with eight points.

Scoring single digits will not earn any awards, but Johnson showed that he can put points on the board in a variety of ways.

Focused Defender

A game like the McDonald's All-American Game is not known for great defense. Lots of scoring? Yes. A ton of dunks? Sure. Some slick passing? Absolutely.

But, Johnson showed that he will fit in just fine at Arizona next year. He has intensity on the defensive end of the court that will translate into immediate playing time for Miller and the Wildcats.

Rather than just taking possessions off at the United Center, Johnson was working hard at stopping whomever he was guarding at the time.

Instead of watching the action, he was creating a little of his own by concentrating on the same defensive skills that harassed high school players over the last four years.

Versatile Competitor

Johnson is one of those rare players that can line up just about anywhere on the court.

The Arizona Daily Star's Bruce Pascoe quoted Gary McKnight, Johnson's high school coach, who mentioned:

As a freshman he (Johnson) played center, as a sophomore, he played forward, as a junior he played shooting guard and as a senior he played point guard. It’s only going to help him down the road, as he goes to college and the pros to handle the ball.

During the week, he impressed with his all-around game. Scout.com's West Coast Recruiting Analyst Josh Gershon tweeted:

When the ball went up on Wednesday night, Johnson was ready to do a little of everything. He did not stand around waiting for the ball to come to him.

He was active on both ends of the court. He ended up having an assist on the game-winning dunk by West MVP Jahlil Okafor. 

Grade for the Game

Stanley Johnson has a passion for winning. He has done it for the last four years at Mater Dei. He will be a main component in Arizona's success while he is in Tucson.

Even on this memorable night for the elite high school players of the Class of 2014, Johnson was part of helping his team gain the victory.

Grade: B+

Arizona forward Aaron Gordon is heading to the NBA. Or maybe not. What we do know, though, is the Wildcats star is going to be discussing his future with his family in the coming days.   

Updates from Tuesday, April 15

Aaron Gordon has officially made his decision on where he'll play next year. The Pac-12 Network Twitter account has the news:

Updates from Monday, April 14

While Aaron Gordon hasn't officially made a statement, Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports reports that the freshman plans on making his decision this week: "University of Arizona freshman forward Aaron Gordon will announce this week he's entering the 2014 NBA draft, source told Yahoo Sports."

Original Text

Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports reported Gordon was leaning heavily toward entering his name in the draft, right as the final buzzer was sounding on Arizona's 64-63 overtime loss to Wisconsin in the Elite Eight:

For his part, Gordon said he has not made a firm decision, per former Wildcats beat writer Anthony Gimino. As with all prospects, Gordon indicated he will talk with his family before making an official announcement. The deadline for prospects to declare for the 2014 NBA draft is April 27. 

If Saturday night was Gordon's last game as a college athlete, it certainly could have gone better. The freshman forward scored only eight points on 3-of-11 shooting, and though he added 18 rebounds, Gordon and Kaleb Tarczewski's inability to curtail Wisconsin forward Frank Kaminsky played a large part in the loss. Kaminski scored a game-high 28 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, as nothing worked for Arizona defensively.

Late in the second half and overtime, coach Sean Miller subbed out Tarczewski and had his Wildcats switch, only for Kaminski to keep knocking down shots. He backed down Gordon in the paint for one-handed hook shots and stretched beyond the three-point arc, as he was one of just two Wisconsin players who shot over 50 percent. 

“Frank Kaminsky is the reason Wisconsin is in the Final Four,” Miller told reporters. “Obviously, it was almost as if he had a big night and we tried to shut everybody else down. That’s not really what we wanted to do. But we could not overcome the 28 points he gave us.”

Still, it's unlikely one down game did much to alter Gordon's stock. Through the first two games of the NCAA tournament, he looked every bit like a raw but talented player starting to put his skill set together. Gordon made 15 of his 19 shots in wins over Gonzaga and San Diego State, even flashing out range beyond the three-point line.

If Gordon finds consistency with his shot—or any part of his offensive game, for that matter—he may find himself rocketing up draft boards. ESPN's Chad Ford (subscription required) currently has him as the sixth-best prospect in the 2014 class, but there is certainly some wiggle room within that assessment. DraftExpress' rankings have Gordon eighth, with Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart and Indiana's Noah Vonleh causing the differential.

With the possibility lingering that the NBA could up its age limit by a year, someone like Gordon could arguably benefit by staying an extra season. While it's tough to pass up top-10 money, Gordon has a legitimate shot at being the No. 1 pick in 2015. Even if the NBA and NBAPA cannot come to an agreement on an increased age limit, the 2015 draft class is not seen as being nearly as strong as this year's.

Either way, it's tough to fault Gordon for looking at the landscape and wanting to get out now. The flaws in his game, most of which are offense and polish related, are seen as traits that will develop over time. Coming back to school and not showing vast improvement as a shooter and post player could, in the long run, scare teams off.

On the plus side, there is plenty of already-developed traits for teams to latch onto. Gordon is an NBA athlete in every sense of the word, garnering Blake Griffin comparisons from the moment he arrived at Arizona. It's obviously unfair to conflate Gordon and one of the 10 best players in the NBA, and Griffin was a better offensive player in college.

That said, Gordon has the upper hand on defense. As ESPN's Jeff Goodman pointed out Saturday night, Gordon is already advanced as a defender and able to guard multiple positions:

In the end, chances are Gordon is coming out. The money, even on the NBA's rookie scale, is too good not to. And by entering his name into the draft now, he's one year closer to receiving a second NBA contract—usually well into the eight figures if everything works out.

Now just comes the waiting game between the family discussion and official announcement.

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For most of the 2013-14 season, Arizona looked like it finally had all the answers for its first serious NCAA title run since Lute Olson retired. But after a gut-wrenching overtime loss to Wisconsin in the West Region final, the top-seeded Wildcats are left with nothing but questions.

One of the biggest questions involves the definition of an offensive foul, the kind for which Nick Johnson was whistled in the final seconds of the extra session with Arizona trailing by a point. On a play that could easily have drawn no call or a defensive foul, Johnson was called for a push-off against Josh Gasser that helped seal the Wildcats’ 64-63 loss.

After a Wisconsin turnover, Johnson actually had a second chance to win it, but his desperation try came after the buzzer. If just another fraction of a second had been left on the clock after the interminable official review—which, admittedly, did award the ball to Arizona—the Wildcats' scoring leader could have been the hero instead of seeing his March run end in a one-possession loss for the second straight year.

Johnson himself was well aware of how narrow that margin was.

As the frustrated junior said in the postgame press conference, “I wish I would have taken one less dribble, get the shot off, give us a little chance." Had he pulled the trigger before the buzzer sounded—and had the shot fallen, unlike the one he hoisted a moment too late—it would've turned a good season for the Pac-12 champion Wildcats into a great one.

With all the near misses, no question looms larger for Arizona than the one that can only be blamed on bad luck: What if Brandon Ashley, who landed badly after a shot in the opening minutes of a road game against California, hadn’t suffered a season-ending broken foot? With one more offensive weapon to throw at Wisconsin’s stifling defense, would the Wildcats have gotten the upper hand in OT or even been able to secure a win in regulation?

Even without Ashley’s soft jump-shooting touch on a front line along with Kaleb Tarczewski’s defense and Aaron Gordon’s dunking, the Wildcats still came achingly close to their first Final Four since 2001. But that raises yet another question: How long will it be before Sean Miller's team breaks through?

Based on Miller's performance in five years at the helm, the wait shouldn't be much longer. He’s now on his second season of coaching a roster composed entirely of his own recruits, and he’s gone to the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight in those two campaigns.

Miller’s remarkable record of bringing in top prospects is a major reason for that optimism, as he’s on his fourth straight season of landing a top-10 freshman class, per ESPN.com (subscription required). On the flip side, that incoming talent means he’s also dealing with plenty of early departures.

Gordon, the prize of last year’s recruiting haul for the Wildcats, appears to be headed out the door, per Yahoo!’s Marc J. Spears:

The imminent arrival of the next superstar West Coast forward (incoming freshman Stanley Johnson out of Santa Ana) should blunt Gordon’s departure and keep the Wildcats in position to take another shot at an NCAA title run next season.

For the moment, though, the focus will be on where Gordon might have been headed with a little better luck: Arlington, Texas, the site of a Final Four that Wildcats fans will remember as one that got away.

The West Region final finds the top two seeds battling for the right to play in Jerry Jones’ playpen next weekend. The Wisconsin Badgers bring an 8-2 against-the-spread tournament run into their battle with the Arizona Wildcats, who have lost in their last three trips to the Elite Eight.

The Badgers have lost five straight games to No. 1 seeds, but they covered the spread in the three most recent losses in this situation.

Elite Eight Spread and total points scored betting line

The Wildcats opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the line was bet up to three points by early Saturday at most books monitored by Odds Shark. The total was 130. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report)

Odds Shark computer pick

68.8-64.5 Wildcats

Why pick Wisconsin to cover the spread

The No. 2 Badgers’ offense can be effective when it gets rolling. Since the ‘Cats will be focused on getting their offense going, there won’t be much resistance for a Badgers team that shot 52 percent from the field on Thursday.

This is a phase of the tournament where Arizona has stumbled, so Wisconsin can try to extend that misery.

Why pick Arizona to cover the spread

No. 1 Arizona, which has covered in seven of its last nine tournament games, was impressive in its come-from-behind win Thursday night against San Diego State’s top-tier defense.

The Aztecs frustrated Arizona to the point that its star player Nick Johnson missed his first 10 shots from the field. Wisconsin isn’t as aggressive or suffocating as the Aztecs, which would allow Arizona to score freely from the opening tip.

The over-under value is lower than expected here, and an OVER may be worth investigating.

Smart betting pick

The OVER has cashed in seven of the last eight times the top two seeds have met, and this looks to be the smartest bet in this regional final. In 30 games pitting the top two seeds against each other, the trend is pretty lame at 16-14 favoring the No. 1 schools.

The short line leaves one to wonder if the underdog is capable of winning outright, while knowing the top-seeded Wildcats can pull away late for a win and cover.

Either way, one of these teams is getting it done because of its strong offensive effort. A shootout is more likely than anything else. Play this one high.

Power rankings

Wisconsin Badgers: No. 34

Arizona Wildcats: No. 6 (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Elite Eight betting trends

• Arizona is 7-2 ATS past nine tournament games
• Arizona lost three straight Elite Eight games
• Wisconsin 8-2 ATS past 10 tournament games
• Wisconsin lost five straight games to No. 1 seeds (but 3-0 ATS past three) – last victory vs No. 1 was 2000 vs Zona
• OVER is 7-1 past eight meetings of 1 and 2 seeds
• 1 seeds 16-14 SU vs 2 seeds since 1997

Note: All spread and betting line data powered by Odds Shark - download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.

ANAHEIM, Calif. — Arizona freshman Aaron Gordon arrived in Tucson last summer boasting the same credentials as the other high-profile members of the Class of 2013.

McDonald’s All-American.

Consensus top-five recruit.

Future NBA lottery pick.

By December, however, something had changed. College basketball fans and analysts fawned ad nauseam over first-year players such as Kansas’ Andrew Wiggins, Duke’s Jabari Parker and Syracuse’s Tyler Ennis—all of whom were enjoying success.

But outside of Tucson, people rarely mentioned Gordon.

Somehow the leading rebounder on the No. 1-ranked team in America had become “the other guy,” the forgotten freshman.

“Those guys are all good people,” Gordon said Friday. “But at the end of the day, there’s a sense of competition (between us), and there always will be. I don’t hide from it. I want to be the best.”

Gordon may not be a top-five pick in this summer’s NBA draft, but he’s definitely earned bragging rights on most of his 2013 classmates.

While players such as Wiggins, Parker and Ennis have seen their seasons—and likely their one-year college careers—come to an end, Gordon is one step away from leading Arizona to its first Final Four since 2001.

The Wildcats, the No. 1 seed in the West Region, take on No. 2 seed Wisconsin on Saturday in the Elite Eight. Kentucky—which starts five freshmen—is the only other team besides Arizona to advance to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend largely because of a member of the Class of 2013.

“It’s all about confidence,” said Gordon, who averages 12.5 points and 7.7 rebounds. “The more confidence I get, the more you’re going to see me shine. I believe in myself fully. I love winning. I hate losing. To be in this position...it was expected.”

Gordon is only 18, but he carries himself like a 30-year-old man. Not just with his actions, but with his words.

There are plenty of things about the NCAA tournament that could be distracting to a freshman, especially after reaching the Elite Eight. Throngs of reporters, NBA draft talk, excessive praise (or criticism) on social media, looking too far ahead.

Gordon, though, seemed completely dialed in while answering reporters’ questions Friday. He even hesitated to answer a question about his sister, a soon-to-be Harvard graduate, because he was “focused on the task at hand.”

“He’s so intelligent, so mature for his age,” Arizona guard Gabe York said. “His poise as a freshman doesn’t go unnoticed. Other people see how composed he is under pressure, and it rubs off on people.”

The Wildcats knew from the start that Gordon would fit in well in Tucson. Junior guard Nick Johnson said he and his teammates were shocked at how humble Gordon was.

“(He) just kind of threw the (recruiting) ranking out the door and said, ‘I have to work for my minutes. I have to work for my spot,’" Johnson said. “He came in ready to work, ready to listen to us.”

Arizona coach Sean Miller credits Gordon’s parents, Ed Gordon and Shelly Davis, for the maturity he’s shown thus far. Gordon’s brother, Drew, starred at New Mexico after transferring from UCLA. His sister, Elise, played for Harvard. Gordon’s father had a brief stint in the NFL with the New England Patriots.

“Sometimes, with a player of this caliber, the family’s expectations are almost different than the coach’s expectations,” Miller said. “But his parents get it. They know how things work. There is no outside negativity. Aaron has no pressure coming from them. It’s all support.”

Gordon’s levelheadedness is one of the main reasons he’s projected as the No. 8 pick in this summer’s NBA draft by DraftExpress.com. Teams are confident that Gordon is mature enough and responsible enough to adapt to the NBA lifestyle without problems.

Of course, they’re also fond of what he’ll bring to the court.

Gordon may be the most athletic player in the country for his size. He can defend all five positions, and he can play most of them, too. Gordon was a small forward for Arizona’s first 21 games before switching to power forward after starter Brandon Ashley went down with a knee injury.

Gordon’s one glaring weakness is at the foul stripe, where he’s making just 42.1 percent of his free throws.

Asked Friday to name his favorite NBA player, Gordon threw out the name “Scottie Griffin.”

“The defensive intensity of Scottie Pippen and the athleticism of Blake Griffin,” he explained.

Gordon definitely channeled his inner-Griffin in Thursday’s Sweet 16 victory over San Diego State, when he caught a lob pass from York with one hand above the rim and slammed it home. York said he threw the pass off-target intentionally so the the dunk would look more spectacular.

“I did it on purpose so he could go get it and freak it real quick,” York said. “A dunk like that can change the game because the crowd goes so wild. That’s definitely what happened tonight.”

The Wildcats are hoping for more of the same against Wisconsin.

The Badgers dismantled a red-hot Baylor squad 69-52 in the Sweet 16 and tout 29 wins overall. Gordon, though, is confident he and his teammates will play well enough to help Arizona advance to get within two wins of the program's first NCAA title since 1997.

If that happens, Gordon will get the time in the spotlight he deserves. One reason he may not have received more attention thus far is because of Arizona’s location. The Wildcats play most of their games while the rest of the country is asleep.

That wouldn’t be the case during the Final Four, not that it matters to Gordon.

“He doesn’t care about how bright the lights are or how big the stage is,” York said. “He just plays basketball.”

Jason King covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JasonKingBR.