Arizona Wildcats Basketball

It'll be an all-Pac 12 matchup for the first time in the history of the NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament final as No. 1 seed Stanford will take on No. 3 Arizona.

Stanford held on for dear life to win 66-65 in a hard-fought Final Four game over No. 1 South Carolina, which missed two potential game-winning buckets in the final couple seconds. Haley Jones' 24 points on 11-of-14 shooting led Stanford.

Arizona then stunned UConn 69-59 behind another phenomenal performance from Aari McDonald (26 points) and fantastic team defense that held the Huskies to just 35.7 percent shooting. The Wildcats led wire-to-wire.

Now Stanford and Arizona will face off on Sunday in the national championship. Stanford is looking for its third national title, while Arizona is shooting for its first.

Here's a look at how the two teams' previous matchups went down alongside three reasons for why each team can win this one. You can also find a score prediction at the end.

    

Previous Matchups

Stanford beat Arizona in both of their regular-season matchups, and neither game was particularly close.

The Cardinal opened a 44-20 halftime lead before winning 81-54 in the first meeting, with Jones posting an 18-point, 10-rebound double-double. Arizona shot just 25.8 percent from the field, with McDonald going 3-of-18.

The second game was a far closer affair, but Stanford still led wire-to-wire in the second half in a 62-48 win. Four Cardinal players scored in double digits, with Lacie Hull's 16 points paving the way.

McDonald led all scorers with 20 points but needed 24 shots to get there. The Wildcats made just 17-of-55 field goals (30.9 percent).

     

Why Arizona Can Win

1. Variance

The Wildcats shot 34-of-121 (28.1 percent) over the pair of Stanford losses.

Stanford is an excellent team with a 33.0 percent field goal defense rate, but Arizona is a far better shooting team that what it showed against the Cardinal.

The Wildcats began the Final Four making 41.3 percent of their field goals, and the guess here is that they won't be held around the 30-percent range for a third time.

   

2. Defense

Arizona's defense has been sensational, as best evidenced by its performance against UConn. The Wildcats have held their five tournament opponents to an average of 52.2 points per game on 96-of-261 shooting (36.8 percent).

Arizona set that defensive tone in the first round against Stony Brook, forcing the Seawolves to commit 25 turnovers. Overall, Arizona's tournament opponents have committed 80 turnovers.

That's largely because of the dynamic defensive duo of McDonald and Sam Thomas, who have combined for 29 steals and seven blocks. McDonald is the two-time Defensive Player of the Year, and Thomas was Pac-12 All-Defense in 2020.

3. McDonald

Obviously. McDonald put UConn on its heels with hot shooting in the first half, scoring 15 of Arizona's 32 first-half points in a low-scoring affair. She was 4-of-6 from three-point range at one point and ended up with more buckets from downtown than the entire UConn team.

It's been the McDonald show this entire tournament, though. Her 32-point, 11-rebound performance in a 66-53 win over Indiana put Arizona in the Final Four.

That followed a 31-point outing against a Texas A&M team that could have arguably had a No. 1 seed but fell on the No. 2 line. McDonald's effort guided Arizona to a 74-59 win.

A 17-point, 11-rebound, four-steal performance in a 52-46 win over BYU followed a 20-point afternoon versus Stony Brook.

McDonald is simply relentless and can never be counted out. If she gets the three-point shot going, watch out.

     

Why Stanford Can Win

1. History

An obvious answer here, but Stanford has gotten the job done against Arizona twice before. The Cardinal led by double digits for the entire second half in the first game and the whole fourth quarter in the second matchup.

Their defense was relentless, and their scoring depth helped too. Four players scored in double digits during each contest.

Granted, a pair of strong Stanford wins doesn't guarantee an automatic victory for the Cardinal, but their performances could be harbingers of what's to come.

    

2. Depth

It's pick your poison when playing this Stanford team. Five players score 7.6 points or more per game, with four posting 9.9 PPG at minimum. If one player has an off-night, another one could be going off and ruining the opposition's evening.

That's more or less what happened in the Final Four against South Carolina. Lexie Hull (third in scoring) had an off-night shooting (4-of-17), but Jones was excellent.

However, Hull was the star in the Elite Eight against Louisville, scoring a team-high 21 points. Before that round, Hannah Jump splashed five three-pointers against Missouri State in the Sweet 16.

The bottom line is that this deep rotation is relentless, and it can cause problems even for an elite defensive team like Arizona.

    

3. Downtown

Stanford makes nearly nine three-pointers per game, and its 286 makes on the year places the Cardinal fourth in all of Division I. The Cardinal are also sixth in three-point percentage (38.6).

Guard Kiana Williams leads the way with 81 makes, and Hannah Jump (57) and Lexie Hull (44) buoy her efforts.

Stanford simply buries teams from three, making 10 or more on 12 different occasions. Breaking that down further, Stanford has made 13 shots from beyond the arc seven times.

If the Cardinal get hot from deep on Monday, then Arizona may be forced into a track meet where McDonald and Co. have to match them. That's advantage, Stanford.

     

Prediction

Arizona will come into this game as the clear underdog even if the Wildcats are coming off a fantastic win over a pre-tournament favorite in UConn. Simply put, Stanford has had the better season and beat Arizona twice by a combined 41 points.

However, this game should be a lot closer. Arizona isn't nearly as poor of a shooting team as it showed against Stanford earlier this season, and its defense should be able to keep the Cardinal within arm's length.

Plus, there's a scenario where McDonald becomes invincible and goes for 30-plus points an 10-plus rebounds while contributing elite defense. If that happens, Stanford is obviously in trouble.

The No. 1 overall seed will also find itself with problems if it goes cold from three. The Cardinals have lost two games this season (back-to-back to UCLA and Colorado), and it's no coincidence that the team shot a combined 7-of-32 from beyond the arc against the conference foes.

The formula for Arizona is to slow this game down a bit, play excellent defense, defend the three and hope McDonald produces some more magic.

The guess here is that happens. Yes, Stanford's offense can be relentless, and there's a scenario where the Cardinal just bury the Wildcats from three. A number of players could get hot from deep and give Arizona problems. Jones could also take this game over in the post herself, much like she did against South Carolina.

However, Arizona is fearless, relentless and playing fantastic ball. The Wildcats are the pick.

Pick: Arizona 63, Stanford 62

Sean Miller's status as Arizona's men's basketball coach is clearly on shaky ground, but it appears he'll return next season.

Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reported the two sides are "moving forward with the idea that their marriage will continue through the 21-22 season and possibly beyond."

Miller's contract ends after the 2021-22 season. The Wildcats are ineligible for this year's NCAA tournament because of recruiting violations that happened during Miller's tenure, most notably an assistant's involvement in a pay-for-play scheme.

Miller has managed to keep his job despite the investigation and Arizona's relatively poor play in recent seasons. The program hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since 2017 and has finished no better than fifth place in the Pac-12 since winning the conference in 2018.

"You know, I'm just not there right now," Miller told reporters of his contract status last month. "Right now, for me and our team and everything that we're doing, it's more about ... how are you gonna finish this season, how are you going to be the most ready you can be, what are your goals, what are you talking to your guys about? That's the box that we're in."

The program could be in a difficult spot if Miller's not offered an extension this offseason. Recruits looking beyond next season would understandably be wary about signing with a coach who may not be there when they arrive, and Miller's effectiveness in pitches will wane if he's in a lame-duck season.

If Miller's returning next season, odds are an extension will be in order sometime this offseason. 

The University of Arizona has officially acknowledged a Notice of Allegations from the NCAA, including five Level I violations—highlighted by a charge of lack of institutional control against men's basketball head coach Sean Miller.  

The Notice of Allegations was delivered in October. The school then requested its case be presented to the NCAA's Independent Accountability Resolution Process, which accepted in December. The NOA was released to the public on Friday evening following a lawsuit by ESPN.

Level I represents the most serious violations of NCAA bylaws. 

Per Bruce Pascoe of the Arizona Daily Star, those five Level I charges are:

• Unethical recruiting conduct by former assistant coaches Book Richardson and Mark Phelps
• Unethical conduct by Richardson for accepting $20,000 in bribes
• Unethical conduct by Phelps for asking a UA player to delete a text message thread related to an impermissible $500 loan he had provided, and lying to investigators
• Head coach responsibility for Miller for not demonstrating he promoted compliance
• Institutional lack of control for Arizona because of the men's basketball charges and two Level II charges involving swimming.

The two swimming charges include arranging improper tryouts and lack of head coach responsibility. 

Richardson previously served a three-month prison sentence for accepting bribes as part of the FBI's investigation into federal corruption within college basketball Using wiretaps, the FBI recorded Richardson alleging payments of $10,000 per month for former Wildcats star Deandre Ayton in 2017. 

Pascoe noted Miller stands to lose a $1 million retention bonus if found guilty, though the funds may be returned. 

That would be just the start of potential consequences for Miller and the basketball program, which has already self-imposed a postseason ban in late December.

Per Pascoe:

"If a school is found to have committed a standard Level I violation, the NCAA's penalty matrix calls for one or two years of a postseason ban. But an aggravated Level 1 carries a two to four year ban (while a mitigated Level 1 brings either no ban or a one-year ban)."

The program may also have to vacate wins if past student-athletes were found to be ineligible. 

There is currently no timeline available for the IARP to rule on Arizona's case. 

Arizona is self-imposing a one-year postseason ban for its men's basketball team.

The school called it a "proactive measure in its ongoing NCAA enforcement process" and "an acknowledgement that the NCAA's investigation revealed that certain former members of the MBB staff displayed serious lapses in judgment and a departure from the University's expectation of honest and ethical behavior."

BREAKING: The University of Arizona announces a self imposed one-year postseason ban for @APlayersProgram pic.twitter.com/8Q74It25Fz

— Mac Colson (@MacColsonTV) December 29, 2020

The Athletic's Seth Davis reported in October the NCAA provided Arizona with a formal notice of allegations regarding nine possible violations, five of which were of the highest level (Level I). Sean Miller was charged with a lack of head coach control, and women's swimming and diving coach Augie Busch received the same charge.

By the school's own admission, the postseason ban is basically an attempt to possibly head off a more serious punishment. Whether the strategy will work is another story.

Arizona, long defiant about NCAA investigation, announces a postseason ban. The question is: will it be enough? Odds are no

— Dana O'Neil (@DanaONeilWriter) December 29, 2020

Bruce Pascoe of the Arizona Daily Star noted the NCAA's Independent Accountability Review Process is looking into the matter and has the authority to levy "a non-appealable resolution."

The New York Post's Zach Braziller criticized the move for what he viewed as shielding Miller from further scrutiny:

Arizona wants everyone to believe Sean Miller had no idea what his longtime assistants were doing, like they went rogue. Laughable. https://t.co/jydeZyEmrH

— Zach Braziller (@NYPost_Brazille) December 29, 2020

Arizona was one of the biggest schools implicated in the FBI's investigation into corruption in college basketball.

Former Wildcats assistant Emanuel "Book" Richardson pleaded guilty to a felony count of conspiracy to commit bribery in January 2019. Richardson admitted to accepting money in order to direct Arizona players to specified financial advisers when they entered the professional ranks.

ESPN's Mark Schlabach reported in February 2018 the FBI had a wiretap in which Miller spoke to Christian Dawkins about funneling $100,000 to Deandre Ayton to ensure the star center would sign with the school.

In May 2019, prosecutors also shared a recording of a call between Richardson and Dawkins in which Richardson said Miller was paying Ayton $10,000 a month while he played for Arizona.

While unranked, Arizona looked to be on track for an NCAA tournament bid after winning seven of its first eight games. The Wildcats rank 51st in ESPN's College Basketball Power Index.

The NCAA sent the University of Arizona a Notice of Allegations on Wednesday that included "nine allegations of misconduct, five of which are classified as Level I violations," according to Seth Davis of The Athletic. 

Per that report, "The Level I allegations, which fall in the most serious category, include a lack of institutional control and failure to monitor by the university; a lack of head coach control by men's basketball coach Sean Miller; and a lack of head coach control by Augie Busch, the women's swimming and diving coach."

Can confirm basics here: Arizona charged with nine violations, five Level Ones, including a head coach control charge for Sean Miller. This is a whopper of a Notice of Allegations. https://t.co/S8fW1UWWZ7

— Pat Forde (@ByPatForde) October 25, 2020

Sean Miller's managed to hang on to his job this long, but hard to see how he outlives this. https://t.co/H7uF9V9IBC

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) October 25, 2020

As Davis reported, Arizona's outside counsel, Paul Kelly, noted when the school received the Notice of Allegations that the nine allegations "are greater than the number of violations alleged in any of the cases that have emerged as a result of the investigation into college basketball conducted by the U.S. Attorney of the Southern District of New York."

One factor is that the NCAA said Book Richardson and Mark Phelps, former Miller assistants, didn't cooperate during the organizing body's investigation into the school. Arizona has denied the claim that this constitutes "adversarial posturing." 

Richardson pleaded guilty to a federal funds bribery charge in a sweeping investigation into illegal recruiting practices in college basketball. Richardson testified that he received $20,000 in bribes to steer Arizona players to Christian Dawkins and Munish Sood, an aspiring agent and financial adviser, respectively. 

Richardson was also heard on FBI wiretaps implying that Miller "bought" the commitment of Phoenix Suns center and former Arizona star Deandre Ayton. Additionally, he said Miller was "taking care of Rawle (Alkins) and them," referring to the former Arizona wing.

After Richardson was sentenced to three months in a federal prison and two years of probation, however, he denied any knowledge of Miller paying players.

"I have no knowledge of Sean Miller paying players or attempting to pay them ... I was on trial no one else. Again I apologize to the University of Arizona, President Robbins and the kind and great people of Tucson for this. Thank you Tucson and all the Wildcats across the world!"

Per Davis, Phelps was fired by Arizona after falsifying transcripts. 

Former Arizona basketball coach Lute Olson died Thursday at the age of 85, Kelly Olson told Jeff Goodman of Stadium:

Former Arizona coach and Hall of Famer Lute Olson passed way earlier tonight, his wife Kelly told me. Olson was 85 years old.

RIP, Coach.

My Ode to Lute: https://t.co/MZM7qf8zmP

My Ode to Lute:

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) August 28, 2020

Arizona Basketball noted the program is "forever indebted" to the legendary coach:

Wildcat. Legend. Icon. Lute.

Coach Olson - We are forever indebted to you for what you did for our program, university and community. #BearDown pic.twitter.com/aj9rAbAn6y

— Arizona Basketball (@ArizonaMBB) August 28, 2020

Olson suffered a stroke in February 2019 and had been unable to fully recover. He also suffered a stroke in 2008.

Anthony Victor Reyes of KVOA Tuscon reported Tuesday the coach was in hospice care and he was in a "fight for his life."

Olson is best known for his 24 seasons coaching the University of Arizona, leading the team to the national championship in 1997 with a team that featured Mike Bibby, Jason Terry and Miles Simon. 

He also led the school to four Final Four appearances, the only ones in school history, while adding 11 regular-season titles in the Pac-12.

The Wildcats had only three NCAA tournament appearances before Olson took over in 1983 but the school became a national power by the time he retired in 2007.

Former Wildcats Richard Jefferson, Jason Terry and Steve Kerr took to Twitter on Thursday night to pay tribute to their former coach:

It’s rare that a man is a Hall of famer and still under appreciated. I’ll always feel like you never got the credit you deserved as a leader, family man, grandfather, coach and as a mentor. I love you Coach O 🐻⬇️

— Richard Jefferson (@Rjeff24) August 28, 2020

With out you there would be no me Rest peacefully #CoachO #BearDown pic.twitter.com/XUTQwuJqNk

— Jason "The Jet" Terry (@jasonterry31) August 28, 2020

https://twitter.com/SteveKerr/status/1299202203438120963

Olson also spent time with Cal State Long Beach and Iowa, leading the Hawkeyes to the Final Four in 1980, while totaling 781 wins over his more than three decades in Division I.

He was inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2002.

Jason Terry is reportedly heading back to his alma mater to join the coaching staff.

According to Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium, Terry will join the Arizona Wildcats men's basketball team as an assistant coach. He was the assistant general manager of the Texas Legends, who are the G League affiliate of the Dallas Mavericks.

Charania noted an announcement is expected Thursday.  

The Legends hired Terry in September 2019, which was notable since he played with the Mavericks from 2004-05 through 2011-12.

Terry entered the NBA as the No. 10 overall pick in the 1999 NBA draft and played 19 seasons for the Mavericks, Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks.

He was best known for his time in Dallas, where he won 2008-09 Sixth Man of the Year and helped lead the team to a victory over LeBron James' Miami Heat in the 2011 NBA Finals.

The sharpshooter played collegiately at Arizona from 1995-96 through 1998-99 and won Pac-10 Player of the Year as a consensus All-American in his final season. The Wildcats also won the national championship in his second campaign with the school.

It was the only national championship in program history, although he will look to help change that as an assistant coach.

Arizona Wildcats guard Josh Green's collegiate career is over after just one season.

Green declared for the 2020 NBA draft Friday, per ESPN's Jonathan Givony.

Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman has the freshman going 19th overall in his latest mock draft, calling him an "explosive wing and exceptional defender" who can at times struggle to create.

Green arrived at Arizona as a 5-star prospect and the No. 13 overall player in the class of 2019, per 247Sports' composite rankings. He is a versatile playmaker at 6'6" with the ability to attack the lane, shoot from the outside, create turnovers on the defensive side and help on the boards when needed.

He wasted little time flashing his potential with 22 points in a marquee non-conference win over Illinois in just his second game and then followed up with 17 points in a high-profile showdown with Gonzaga and 17 points in an important Pac-12 game against Oregon.

While Zeke Nnaji and Nico Mannion shouldered plenty of the team's offensive responsibility, Green was a key secondary option who could take advantage of spacing created when defenses collapsed on the other playmakers.

However, it was his defensive ability that stood out during his one season at Arizona.

Green is athletic enough to stay in front of ball-handlers and possesses the wingspan to challenge perimeter shots and disrupt passing lanes. His tendency to lock up the opponent's best player for extended stretches took pressure off his teammates on that side of the ball.

In February, Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman projected him as a first-round pick and pointed to "his athleticism for transition and defense, plus the flashes of set shooting, floaters and passing" as reasons for optimism.

Green used that skill set to average 12.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.5 steals per game.

He will now shift his attention away from competing in the Pac-12 toward finding a role as a rookie in the NBA.

Point guard prospect Nico Mannion has declared for the 2020 NBA draft after one season at Arizona, according to a post on his Instagram page. 

Nico Mannion officially declares for the NBA draft. pic.twitter.com/MmzfVxSUVZ

— Paige (@ThatSportsPaige) April 7, 2020

Head coach Sean Miller had initially confirmed in early March that Mannion was leaving after the season, but his father, Pace Mannion, denied those reports, according to Sam Vecenie of The Athletic.

The 19-year-old has now made his decision, although he will have the opportunity to withdraw from the draft by June 15.

An Italian native, Mannion first gained national attention in the United States as a high school player, becoming a viral sensation thanks to his athleticism:

Nico Mannion says he doesn’t “look like a good player in all honesty.” But the Red Mamba is the nation’s No. 1 point guard prospect for a reason.

Watch the full story: https://t.co/46KVuuAomP https://t.co/4AhvvXbj2l

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 27, 2019

He was rated the top point guard prospect and No. 9 overall player in the 2019 class, per 247Sports' composite rankings.

The high level of play continued at Arizona, where he averaged 14.0 points, 5.3 assists and 1.2 steals per game. 

It was enough for Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman to consider him the No. 20 overall prospect in the class heading into March. 

At 6'3", 190 pounds, Mannion is slightly undersized for the NBA, and his outside shooting was a bit inconsistent at 32.7 percent this season. On the other hand, the guard showcased good athleticism with the ability to attack the basket and finish with ease.

Adding in his quality work on the defensive end, he has a chance to be an impact player in the pros.

His departure will also leave Arizona especially short-handed next year after it lost much of the rotation from the 2019-20 squad, including seniors (Dylan Smith, Stone Gettings, Chase Jeter, Max Hazzard) and other top draft prospects Zeke Nnaji and perhaps Josh Green, who has yet to decide. Miller will have a tough challenge getting the Wildcats back into contention in the Pac-12 with a lot of turnover during the offseason.

Pace Mannion, the father of Arizona star Nico Mannion, denied his son has decided to enter the 2020 NBA draft despite comments from head coach Sean Miller.

"He will make that decision after the season," Pace Mannion told Sam Vecenie of The Athletic. On Saturday, Miller said Mannion would go pro after the Wildcats' 69-63 loss to Washington, per the Associated Press (h/t ESPN).

Mannion is averaging 14.0 points and 5.5 assists while shooting 39.0 percent from the field and 32.5 percent from beyond the arc for the Wildcats.

He's widely considered a first-round prospect and possible lottery pick this summer. In his most recent mock draft, Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman projected Mannion at No. 13 to the San Antonio Spurs.

The added pressure that comes with making the step up to the NBA won't be that daunting for the 19-year-old either.

Pace was a second-round pick of the Golden State Warriors in the 1983 NBA draft, and he spent six years in the league before playing overseas.

B/R's David Gardner profiled Mannion in December, writing about how his distinctive look and highlight-reel dunks have helped him gain an ardent following already:

"His fame is only going to grow from here. A few weeks after he got back from Hawaii, he was walking around the mall with some friends. They weren't shopping. They just wanted to spend time together before scattering to schools across the country. So when Nico saw a group of kids coming for him, he decided to duck them. He bolted behind a support beam and then squatted behind a table. But he still heard: 'Hey Nico! What's up?'"

Many have commented on the state of the 2020 draft class and the lack of elite talent at the top of the board, and Mannion isn't exempt from the general skepticism about the group.

His frame (6'3" and 190 pounds) might limit how a coach can use him in the backcourt, though CJ McCollum has been effective at the 2 with similar physical tools. He'll need to improve his long-range shooting, too, especially since he might struggle to score inside when matched up against bigger guards.

While he might not reach an All-Star level in the NBA, Mannion should carve out a nice career in the league should he decide to leave.

With a 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio, he projects to be an effective facilitator.

Mannion's willingness to fire from the perimeter is also encouraging. He is averaging five three-point attempts per game. Assuming he continues to work on his jumper, a bump in efficiency could follow.

Teams in the lottery looking for a floor general would do well to target Mannion if he eventually confirms his exit from Arizona.

Miller knew there was a chance Mannion would be a one-and-done. The Phoenix native was the No. 9 player in the 2019 recruiting class, per 247Sports' composite rankings.

Mannion's departure would hurt all the same, especially since the Wildcats don't have a star-studded group coming in for next season. James Akinjo transferred from Georgetown in January, but their 2020 recruiting class is 41st in 247Sports' composite team rankings.