Heisman Overview: Separating the Pretenders and Contenders
At this point, it's probably silly to rank the Heisman candidates.
Most players have only played two games, and big-time Heisman hopefuls Darren McFadden and John David Booty were inactive this past weekend.
Still, here's my take on the players who've made the biggest splashes in the race to date...
It looks like Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford is a legitimate contender. The 19-year-old is one of the best pure passers in college football, and has the stat line to prove it: 40-48, 8 TDs, 0 INT.
It helps to be playing in what is arguably the weakest major conference in the country, too.
Bradford has an outside shot at bringing home the hardware in December. His chances would be much better if he weren't a freshman.
Florida QB Tim Tebow has the necessary ability, and all the help he'll need with an outstanding supporting cast and one of college football's best coaches in Urban Meyer.
Unfortunately, the stiff competition in the SEC will stifle the ultra-talented sophomore's campaign.
By no means am I saying that Tebow will have a disappointing season or that Florida will tank—but having to face SEC squads on a weekly basis will weaken his stat line just enough for stats-obsessed voters to pass him over.
Oregon QB Dennis Dixon has to be on everyone's radar after carving up the Michigan defense last Saturday. His game reminds me of Vince Young—some very favorable company.
The Ducks look like they could be one of college football's pleasant surprises this year—and their success would help Dixon's campaign a lot. It's hard to imagine this guy actually winning it this year, but I wouldn't rule him out...and an invite is an outside possibility.
Hawaii QB Colt Brennan has already tossed 10 TDs—and when all is said and done, he'll have the most impressive stat line of any QB in the country.
Hawaii's schedule is weak, however, and if Brennan is going to have any hope of winning the Heisman, the Warriors are going to have to win most of their games. What's more, the QB will have to perform well vs. Boise State and Washington—voters won't be kind if he racks up big numbers against soft competition and then fizzles versus better teams.
I for one don't think Brennan deserves to be considered, no matter how good his numbers are. The Heisman should go to a major conference player who plays against the best athletes in the country on a weekly basis.
With that said, if Brennan makes the kind of assault on the record books some are projecting, he'll have an outside shot—and I'd say he's a lock to be invited to New York if they decide to invite more than three players.
Louisville QB Brian Brohm has shredded two very weak defenses, and looks to be on top of his game.
Louisville has a great shot at winning the Big East, and Brohm is primed to make a run at the trophy. Louisville's late-season matchups with West Virginia and Rutgers will make or break his campaign. For now, he's one of my favorites—if I had to make a Top Five, he'd be in it.
USC QB John David Booty has an excellent chance—he's surrounded by top-tier talent and has plenty of ability.
His stats weren't too impressive vs. Idaho, but he's going to have some big numbers by season's end. USC could very well play in the national title game, which will help Booty's cause a great deal come decision time for voters.
West Virginia QB Pat White is one of the most exciting players in the country, and he's had a huge season to this point. His status as a dual threat will serve him well with a voting contingent that always values versatility.
The only thing working against White and Steve Slaton is the fact that they play on the same team.
Rutgers RB Ray Rice leads the NCAA in rushing, but his game lacks the exciting edge that Darren McFadden and Steve Slaton possess—he's more of a workhorse than a gamebreaker.
Rice's stats will be solid, though, and Rutgers football is on the rise. It wouldn't surprise me to see him get an invite to the ceremony.
Michigan RB Mike Hart is a tremendous pure running back and one of college football's most consistent players. Like Rice, though, he's more of a grinder—and Michigan won't be nearly good enough to satisfy voters.
Nebraska RB Marlon Lucky is the NCAA's second leading rusher, but his stats were inflated by a huge first game vs. Nevada, and it doesn't seem like he's legitimate Heisman material.
Like Rice and Hart, Lucky lacks explosive home run ability. Worse, he lacks big name recognition—an essential element in any Heisman campaign.
Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, last year's runner-up, is the odds-on favorite after an excellent performance vs. Troy in which he displayed the versatility (151 yards, two catches, and a TD pass) that makes him so appealing to voters.
McFadden is a sensationally talented back with a power-speed combo reminiscent of Bo Jackson's. He seems to play his best football in big games—and if he can dominate the best defenses in the SEC like he did last year while Arkansas holds onto a Top 25 ranking, the bronze statue will be his.
West Virginia RB Steve Slaton might be the fastest player in the college game, and he's the type of exciting home run threat voters love. In Rich Rodriguez's spread attack, Slaton's shot at the hardware is as good as anyone's. As I mentioned previously, though, his playing on the same team as Pat White doesn't help either player's cause.
Cal WR DeSean Jackson is a "playmaker and a half," and we've seen some fantastic things from him so far this year. He'll have to improve his receiving stats if he's going to have a shot, but there's no reason to think he'll have any trouble given the numbers he put up last year (59 receptions, 1060 yards, 9 TDs).
It's difficult to envision Jackson winning the award, but voters will reward him with a trip to New York if he keeps up the good work.
Let me know if I missed anyone...
