North Texas Mean Green Football

North Texas Mean Green head football coach Dan McCarney was fired by the school Saturday, according to the Denton Record-Chronicle's Brett Vito.

The firing came after the 0-5 Mean Green lost to the Portland State Vikings of the FCS, 66-7. It was the third straight game in which North Texas allowed more than 49 points and the largest margin of defeat ever for an FBS team against an FCS team, according to Zach Barnett of FootballScoop.com.

Pete Thamel of Sports Illustrated reported on Sunday McCarney will be owed $1.8 million in buyout money.

Losses don't come any more embarrassing than this, as Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman pointed out the game was over long before the fourth quarter:

FCS PortlandState is beating North Texas 59-0 after three quarters. UNT has been outgained 588-91.

— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) October 10, 2015

The only winless team in Conference USA, North Texas has lost 13 of its past 17 games dating back to the beginning of 2014.

Things took a drastic turn for the worse in recent years for McCarney, who saw some early success after his hiring in 2011. In 2013, the Mean Green went 9-4 and won the Heart of Dallas Bowl against UNLV. But it all fell apart after that, as he finished with a record of 17-25 at North Texas.

The team has yet to announce an interim head coach.

Stats courtesy of ESPN.com.

Two teams will be entering rarefied air on New Year’s Day in the Cotton Bowl stadium. It will be the sixth bowl game for the North Texas Mean Green, its first since 2004, and they opened as favorites against the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels.

UNLV plays in just its fourth bowl game in the school’s history and first since winning the Las Vegas Bowl in 2000. Neither team has ever played in a New Year’s Day bowl.

Heart of Dallas Bowl point spread: Mean Green opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 56. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 38.4-25.7 Mean Green

Why North Texas will cover the spread

The Mean Green (8-4) played an unusually tough schedule this year and answered the bell. North Texas faced six bowl teams and beat three of them. Running Back Brandin Byrd, who rushed for 1,023 yards and 11 touchdowns this year, will have a monster day on the ground against UNLV’s 110th ranked run defense.

The Rebels gave up 221.8 rushing yards per game, and Byrd finished the season hot, with more than 200 yards in two of his final three games.

North Texas will rely on its run game and its stout defense that finished ninth with only 18.1 points allowed per game. A win would extend the Heart of Dallas Bowl betting history of favorites getting the job done.

Why UNLV will cover the spread

After a dismal start to the year, the Rebels (7-5) got on a roll to finish with more wins than the previous three years combined. They are led by senior quarterback Caleb Herring, who threw for 2,522 yards and 22 touchdowns, with another five touchdowns on the ground.

His main target, Devante Davis, finished the year with the fourth most touchdown catches in the country with 14. Davis is a big red-zone target that is especially dangerous on fade routes in the back of the end zone.

UNLV struggled against the run but played much better down the stretch. And they face a North Texas team that has struggled to a 1-3 ATS mark recently in bowl action.

Smart Pick

This game is a matchup of two very evenly matched teams. In that case, it’s always good to have 6.5 points in your pocket. Taking UNLV +6.5 is the smart play, with this game looking like a prime candidate for a nail-biter.

UNLV’s passing attack, complemented by the school’s all-time leading rusher Tim Cornett, will move the ball on North Texas’ tough defense.

The Mean Green will have success running the ball, but UNLV’s 33rd ranked pass defense will limit them through the air. Look for the Rebels to possibly win outright but at least keep it close and cover the 6.5.

Trends:

• Favored team has won both prior games (formerly TicketCity Bowl)
• North Texas is 1-3 ATS in bowls (first since 2004)
• First UNLV bowl since winning Las Vegas Bowl in 2000

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

The Sun Belt held a press conference on Feb. 16 announcing Karl Benson as its new commissioner, replacing the retiring Wright Waters. 

Before Benson was introduced, the man doing the introduction, Dr. Jack Hawkins of Troy University, made it a point to showcase the Sun Belt's achievements.

One of 11 FBS conferences having only added football in 2001, Sun Belt teams have won 50 percent of their bowl games since 2005, better than five other FBS conferences.

The Sun Belt is the sixth best conference in baseball, 90 percent of Sun Belt teams have earned a multi-year academic progress rate of 925 or higher, and the stable foot print in the Southern United States has helped save traveling costs and developed strong natural rivalries.

As Karl Benson gave his opening statement, he pointed out the rapid growth and potential of the conference with the growth of the Sun Belt's student population, fan support, and alumni support over the past five years. 

The subject of expansion was the main focus for the question and answer segment, and Benson started off by stating that the Sun Belt will look at schools in their current footprint and that adding at least a 12th member would be good for the league. 

Benson also made sure to mention Arkansas-Little Rock by name as they are the only member without a football program (South Alabama will join the Sun Belt in football in 2013 after being an FCS independent last year and again next season). 

I believe this was to debunk any possible rumors of Little Rock being expelled from the conference in favor of another football school and to show that they have the same amount of say as the other schools in the conference. 

Benson stated that a committee will be formed to look at both current membership and future membership with targets being in both the FBS and FCS. 

However, the first matter of business will be to convince current members to stay.  Benson pointed out how the fact that Sun Belt schools are being listed as potential targets for expansion shows how the conference has moved up the non-AQ hierarchy and that the conference can continue to move up as more media and revenue opportunities open up for the Sun Belt. 

While most of the members appear to be content with staying put, a few schools have still had their name appear in the expansion rumor mill. 

North Texas seems to be on Benson's priority list, as he appears to have been head over heels in love with the school since his early days as WAC commissioner.

In an interview he did for North Texas, Benson has been keeping an eye on the Mean Green since 1999: 

"It goes all the way back to 1999, which was the first time that I was on the North Texas campus.  I was on the campus a year ago at this time, trying to convince North Texas to come to the WAC.  I've seen the new stadium, I've seen the unbelievable growth of the university. 

"To look at the University of North Texas today and to see the 30,000-plus students, the new stadium, the commitment that starts at the top with President Rawlins, the fact that there has been continuity with Rick Villarreal, and the fact that it is 35 miles from Dallas and Ft. Worth, those are all components that make it attractive. 

"As I said before, North Texas has been attractive to the WAC for the last 10 years and is currently on the radar for Conference USA.  It is one of the premiere programs in the Sun Belt and I'm looking forward to finally being able to work with Rick and President Rawlins and the outstanding group of coaches that are there. 

"Everyone always talks about 'Who is the next Boise State' and I can honestly say 'why not North Texas?'" 

Having graduated from Boise State and being the WAC commissioner for 18 years has allowed Benson the chance to witness the growth and success of the Broncos first hand, and he obviously sees enough similarities with North Texas for them to be a potential up-and-coming power.

North Texas was targeted numerous times by Benson in the WAC, and the Denton, Texas, school had rejected him on every occasion.  Now he has his chance to work with the Mean Green, but first he has to convince them to not leave for the newly formed conference.

Another school that has popped up in connection with the new merger is Florida International.  The Miami school is the 15th largest university in the country and only started its program in 2002. 

It quickly went from being only known for its brawl with the Hurricanes to back-to-back bowl games and it is a program on the rise. 

Their attendance growth has caused the school to expand the stadium for this coming season, as the north side of the stadium will become enclosed, with suites being built as well. 

The growing support of the program, combined with its size and location, makes FIU an appealing candidate for expansion, and convincing them to stay should be another priority for Karl Benson.

In an interview held during the Sun Belt tournament game between South Alabama and Troy, Benson had stated that several schools are being considered in case they lose some members and that they would like to expand to form two divisions to further help reduce traveling (and to create more attention to the conference in the form of televised championship games).

Schools that have been popping up as possible Sun Belt targets have been:  Louisiana Tech, Appalachian State (North Carolina), UNC-Charlotte, Texas State, UT-Arlington, UT-San Antonio, Lamar (Texas), Georgia Southern, and Georgia State.

Georgia Southern looks good on paper: in the Atlanta-Savannah area, very close vicinity to the Eastern schools, strong fan base, and a very successful athletics program. 

However, a feasibility report done by the school showed that while they would be able to make the leap from FCS to FBS successfully on an athletic level, the financial risks would be high and the alumni/boosters aren't backing the idea with nearly as much enthusiasm as the student body. 

Expect them to take the same route as Montana and remain FCS for a little while longer.

However, according to Russel Wright of Collegiate Consulting, Georgia State is primed and ready for a move, as they have the finances and the location (Atlanta) to make the leap.

“The quality of competition doesn't matter at all. The market drives it more than the on-the-field product.”

The school has an enrollment of 30,000 plus, similar to North Texas and FIU, and $16 million of the $22 million the school receives in revenues come from the students, according to the report.

Appalachian State have decided to pursue upgrading to FBS, based on similar positive reviews in their feasibility report and are already a nationally recognized brand due to the upset over 5th ranked Michigan en route to a third straight national title in 2007. However, they are also on the radar of the MWC/C-USA conference.

Charlotte is an intriguing candidate as they have a very successful basketball and baseball program.  They will begin playing football in 2013, a sport they haven't supported since 1948.  Charlotte also has a past history with the Sun Belt (members from 1976-1991) and C-USA (1995-2005).

Expect to hear this school get considered by the Sun Belt, the new merged conference, and possibly even the Big East. Being located in the 17th largest city in the country is also a bit of a perk.

Lamar is an FCS school based in Beaumont, Texas, and has been rather aggressive in trying to move up to FBS.  Benson has stated that he would like to expand further into Texas to give North Texas a traveling partner. 

Should Texas State, San Antonio, and Arlington decide to stay in the WAC, Lamar could be considered as the next Texas school in the Sun Belt.

Louisiana Tech seems to have been in contact with the MWC/C-USA but have otherwise adopted a wait-and-see approach to realignment.  Where they go is anyone's guess.

"Today is the beginning of the message that the Sun Belt Conference is going to be a player on the college landscape...the Sun Belt is now 10-plus years old (in football) and has established itself, It no longer needs to be considered the lowest rung."

Benson has big plans for the Sun Belt and he has the experience to make those plans bear fruit.  However, the WAC's fast fall was under his watch, and the sudden departure from the conference has raised a few questions and eyebrows.

Things won't be the same for the Sun Belt once Benson get rolling, but will he be able point the conference in a positive direction and keep them going?

Dan McCarney successfully navigated his first big challenge as UNT's head coach by retaining Offensive Coordinator/Interim Coach Mike Canales.

Canales earned the respect of a large chunk of UNT's fanbase during his run as the interim head coach.

UNT's players trusted and believed in Mike Canales.  They desperately wanted Canales as their next head coach, but Canales didn't have the resume that the Chancellor, Board of Directors, or whoever else who helped AD Rick Villareal decide where to spend the largest paycheck ever given to a UNT head coach.
 
A large senior class left Coach McCarney in a bit of an awkward situation as he entered the door.  What if Lance Dunbar checked out early to be a sixth-round pick in the NFL draft because he was angry rather than coming back and improving his stock?  What if some key players transferred out?  Where would Coach McCarney be then?  Those are the kind of moves angry young men sometimes make.
 
Canales, for his part, was pretty graceful in laying the foundation of a return to UNT by publicly saying he would like to return.  Canales worked with McCarney briefly at South Florida, and it seems fairly likely that he might have been on McCarney's list as potential offensive coordinators even if he wasn't already working at UNT.

McCarney wisely and quickly met Canales halfway.  Retaining Canales likely diffused player anger before it cost McCarney any numbers.
 
Canales was named Offensive Coordinator/Assistant Head Coach.  Given the title, it is a fair guess he may assume some limited head coaching responsibilities.  The new title allows Canales to build his brand for a potential head coaching position elsewhere—something one has to think that is on his mind after his successful first taste of being a head coach.

If Canales has another good season next year, there is a good chance someone will make him an offer to be their head coach and a fair chance he will take it.  In that instance McCarney will have gotten everything he can out of this senior class and then can hire one of "his guys" to replace Canales.

It looks like a great move by Coach McCarney with little downside.
 
Now the second big challenge is upon UNT's new head football coach.
 

Who else does he keep off the Dodge staff?
 
I think Coach McCarney needs to look at three things.
 
1) Did they earn consideration off their work last season?
2) Do they bring something to the table beyond being a competent position coach?
3) Do they bring something the team could use next season?
 
The offense worked this year, especially after Todd Dodge left.  Post Dodge, Canales became the interim head coach and Conroy Hines (a former OC at La Tech) assumed a lot of the offensive coordinator responsibilities.  As I see it, the mixture of Mike Canales's very expansive playbook and creativity and Hines's knack for setting up opponents and suggesting the right plays at the right time made this hobbled offense very explosive.

Over the last five weeks UNT's offense averaged 33.8 points per game with very few turnovers against the strongest part of the schedule. That kind of performance ordinarily gets you a fair interview.

The retainment of Conroy Hines should be part of the equation if for no other reason than to give a strong option to take over the OC job when Canales eventually leaves for a head coaching job. It is always good to have strong options.

UNT's offense noticeably improved when Hines became more involved in the play calling.  Even if one doesn't think much of his work as a position coach (he coached WRs last year), a very strong argument can be made to give him new responsibilities with a title like "passing game coordinator & academics coordinator". 

Hines had a great reputation at La Tech for getting problem students to their classes so they kept their grades up.  Given UNT's history, it would make sense to have at least one coach who excels at that.
 
UNT has lightning in a bottle with this playcalling combination.  It isn't just Canales.  McCarney is reportedly considering retaining Hines and I think he is wise to do so.
 

UNT's ace recruiting duo
 
You can find good position coaches anywhere, but good recruiters are hard to find.  UNT has a pair of top notch recruiters in Chuck Peterson and Shelton Gandy.  Gandy recruits the Louisiana/Mississippi region and Peterson has been the recruiting coordinator and has handled the Kansas region. 
 
UNT has pulled a hell of a lot of good talent out of those areas recently and last year was no exception.  Coming off a 2-10 record, UNT signed nine 3-star players largely fuelled by their efforts.  That is a great job that deserves consideration of continuing employment.
 
It appears Gandy and Peterson are being undervalued quite a bit because they happen to be great JUCO recruiters with great ties to JUCO staffs in those areas.  McCarney has stated he wants to build with four-year players.
 
I think to view their candidacy dimly through the lens of four-year recruiting is wrong thinking.

A good recruiter is someone who can close the door and land a player.  Both of these coaches have not only proven they can do that, they have proven they can do it at UNT which has not been an easy sale recently.  These guys are not just good recruiters because they have the ears and trust of certain JUCO coaches. 
 
Plus there are times when you need a JUCO guy.  Even if you want to build with four-year players, there will be times that you need a specific hole filled immediately.  When that occurs, it makes sense to have two proven ace JUCO recruiters on hand with good access to two different strong JUCO leagues.
 
McCarney retained DL coach Mike Nelson last week.  I think most UNT fans were not excited about that because Nelson has buried a lot of talented players on the bench in his time here.  I mention this because it builds a very strong argument to keep Peterson and Gandy.
 
UNT is losing both of their starting Defensive Tackles.  Nelson liked them and UNT's two undersized starting DE's KC Obi and Brandon Akpunku, but showed little trust in the rest of his defensive linemen.  Now maybe you can make an argument that Defensive Coordinator Gary DeLoach was the driving force behind the short bench on defense, but the defensive line was one of the worst areas in that regard.
 
UNT has a huge hole in the middle of their defense and was poor against the run with two all conference DTs who won't be back. With those two run anchors in the middle, UNT gave up 4.7 yards per carry for 185 rushing yards a game.

That looks like the biggest trouble spot on this roster by far.  Last year's recruiting effort for a lame-duck head coach coming off a 2-10 season suggests Gandy and Peterson can bring in quality JUCO players to patch that hole.

Plus, they are good position coaches. Gandy has been a more than competent running back coach developing several 1000-yard rushers. (Athough I think you could do better for a special teams coach, I should note that special teams improved dramatically under Gandy in the second half of this season and were above average in that span.)

Peterson is a more than competent safety coach and has also run very successful rushing offenses in the past. UNT has needed a QB coach for years and Peterson is actually quite accomplished in that area himself.

When is a five-year contract not a five-year deal?  In coaching.

Coach McCarney has said that he wants to rebuild with freshmen.  It is not an uncommon stance for a coach who realizes he has a good four-year cushion based on his salary.  With the situation UNT has on the defensive line that kind of position is like writing off next season.
 
This team played well down the stretch to finish 3-9. They return 24 seniors, some like Lance Dunbar, Brandon Akpunku, Tyler Stradford, Ryan Downing, Brad Graham, Stephen Ford and a few others have shots to be among the best players in the Sun Belt.  Four to five wins appears likely.

The play of the defensive line will determine the success of this team next season.  If solid defensive line play can be achieved, bowl eligibility seems a reasonable and attainable goal.
 
More to the point, most UNT fans think that now that we have a big money, proven BCS-conference head coach running the show instead of Todd Dodge, a .500 record should be very attainable next season with Lance Dunbar and company returning.
 
If UNT is going to focus on recruiting four-year players, there is a good chance next year will be UNT's best chance at breaking .500 in the next three seasons.

If McCarney effectively writes off next season in favor of investing in freshman players who will play in 2013, he will have a lot of people screaming for his head when Lance Dunbar is gone and UNT still hasn't broken .500.

"Is this really the best coach $500K can buy UNT?" they'll say.

Like Todd Dodge, McCarney may spend his second year onward trying to build a team with an increasingly hostile local fanbase.
 
If McCarney can break .500 next season, he will not only buy himself a ton of support and patience from the UNT fan base, he will teach his roster what it takes to win—and that will dramatically enhance his ability to stick around.
 
To break .500, UNT probably needs three to four ready-to-play JUCO defensive linemen—probably three defensive tackles and a strongside defensive end in the mix.  Gandy and Peterson can deliver that.

Early personnel mistakes shave years off a coaches' tenure
 
Todd Dodge let go of Eric Russell, one of the best special teams coaches in America on his way in the door. Special teams were an Achilles' heel for Dodge at UNT.  He had the worst units in the nation for most of his tenure here.  Mistakes by those units actively cost him wins at least six times at UNT.

It logically makes sense that if he had retained one of the best special teams coaches at the FBS level that UNT's special teams units might have stolen an equal number of games.

How would Todd Dodge have looked if his record was, say, 15-21 instead of 5-31 at the end of last year? 15-21 isn't ideal for UNT fans, but it isn't a trainwreck when you consider Dodge was coach during the worst possible time to be a UNT head coach in the last 30 years.

Would AD Rick Villareal have been under siege by the fans to dump Dodge if the team was 15-21, playing hard most weeks, and occasionally stealing games?  Without that pressure, would there have been the argument that lead to the seven-win ultimatum this year?

Who can say?

What is clear is that Dodge didn't increase his chances of seeing the end of his contract when he passed on Russell to bring in one of his guys.

And you can see this in most coaches who get fired early. Former Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels put a lot of his credibility on the line when he ran out Jay Cutler in Denver.  Cutler has been more on than off this year in Chicago leading the Bears towards the playoffs and that further undercut McDaniel's credibility with the fans and his employer. 

If McDaniels didn't run off Cutler, most Broncos fans think the Broncos would be a lot better.  They saw McDaniels as a guy who couldn't park his ego, so he dumped a franchise QB for someone he got along with better.  So McDaniels is gone after two years, despite his resume.

Players, coaches...it is the same thing.  If you let talented people go, you have to deal with all the talk when they succeed elsewhere.  Especially if their replacements aren't as good.

When a coach comes in and brings in their guys, they mortgage some of their credibility. When they do not retain a known good coach, they are mortgaging a little bit of that with the administration and the fans.  Then they have to prove they didn't blow that decision or that mortgage on their credibilty gets cashed in and some people turn on the coach.

If a coach can make it work with a talented assistant, like McCarney did with the Canales move, he can avoid a lot of that potential backlash.

If McCarney lets Peterson and Gandy go, the move has a real chance to haunt McCarney.  Like with Dodge it could effectively cut a year or even two off his grace period with the fans and the boosters.  Given his preference to building with freshmen, fans getting mad a year or two earlier could break McCarney here.
 
A coach coming in in Coach McCarney's situation might be lead to think that his five-year contract is rock solid given the salary and the fact UNT is not used to buying out contracts of that amount.  Hopefully Hayden Fry has stressed to Coach McCarney that this is a very impatient fan base after six straight losing seasons. 

UNT may generally be a losing program over the last 30 years, but this is a long stretch even for UNT.

If UNT doesn't win next year, why should fans expect to win when we are breaking in freshmen and sophomore starters in 2012 and 2013?  At that point UNT would be looking at 8-9 straight losing seasons.

It's a lot to ask of fans anywhere to keep attending games entering 8-9 straight losing seasons. I hate to be fatalistic, but if UNT hasn't had a winning season and is predictably drawing less than 15,000 most games to the new stadium in 2013, Coach McCarney's salary will not provide as much protection as his advisers may be telling him.

It is unpleasant to do so, but one should remember it was reported that Todd Dodge was promised by the AD and the President that he'd coach in the new stadium.  I don't say this to beat up on them—it is simply the nature of the coaching profession that plans change when the fans get restless.

Being one of Hayden Fry's litter will buy Coach McCarney a ton of goodwill, but it doesn't change the fact that it is a long time since UNT has seen .500.

It is far better for a coach to do whatever little things he can to enhance his chances of seeing year five rather than assuming he will.  It is playing the odds.

Letting good proven coaches go is risky.

Ultimately all three coaches have shown they are more than just competent position coaches.  They offer attributes that are hard to find on a UNT budget.

I wrote this article because this move would likely help UNT and Coach McCarney and I felt like these coaches earned my advocacy as a fan.  No one else wrote this article and I think someone should have.  These guys earned that kind of support from the UNT fanbase.

Additionally, I have been following these soon-to-be-seniors for years now. Considering they came to UNT when the school was at its lowest point in recent memory to try and turn things around, I think they deserve the defensive line help to give them the best shot possible to go out winners next year.

Why not take the aces of last year's staff in for a year and see what they have?  I don't think Coach McCarney will regret it if he does.

Welcome to the 12th entry in a series of weekly articles that pose the big questions facing the University of North Texas football team.

UNT's defense collapsed in the second half last week, giving up three straight TD drives (47 yards and then two 71-yard drives) as the Mean Green fell to the University of Louisiana-Monroe, 49-37. The defense was fed the turf for the second year in a row as the Warhawks, who had entered the game averaging a Sun Belt worst 2.7 yards per carry, ran 51 times for 233 yards in the game.

The whole team didn't roll over vs. ULM as they did in 2009 though. They actually held a 27-21 lead at the half and fought back to within five, 42-37, with seven minutes to go in front of a hostile crowd of 8,905.

The final game of the year and the last UNT football game of all time at Fouts Field will feature UNT against Kansas State. The last big question is:

Will the Seniors Mail in Their Last Game in a Lost Season?

It is easy to imagine a scenario where they do.  UNT is likely to have another poor turnout game unless Kansas State has a significant fanbase in the area and deems a game against UNT to be worth seeing.  UNT's student body has been showing up in good numbers this year, keeping the turnout numbers from being atrocious, but they may not for this game.  Even with a decent Kansas State crowd, it would not be surprising to see a turnout of 15,000 or so fans, with many of them arriving late.

Additionally, Fouts is a lousy place to watch a game and limits the fan noise.  The Mean Green could again come out flat at home and get rolled again.

My gut feeling is they won't get rolled though.  Under Coach Canales, this team is playing with a lot of guts and passion that frankly wasn't there under Dodge.  Additionally, UNT plays better coming off losses where the Mean Green feel they have something to prove than they do coming off wins.

Plus, Kansas State may just look at UNT's record and take this game for granted.

The Matchups

Statistically both teams are eerie mirrors of each other, although Kansas State has won six games as a member of one of the better BCS AQ conferences, and UNT has won three as a member of the worst FBS conference.

Still, things are looking up for UNT.  Since Canales took over, the Mean Green offense has averaged 32 ppg.  Overall UNT is 24th in the nation in rushing at 193.5 yards per game, and despite being something of a finesse team, the Mean Green control the clock for a very respectable 32:13 minutes per game.  Additionally UNT has turned the ball over only 16 times this year, second-fewest in the Sun Belt.

Although limited by injuries, Riley Dodge has emerged as the kind of QB a lot of folks thought he might be at UNT. Dodge has thrown 10 TD with only four INT this year while proving to be the tough, gutty competitor he was in high school.

UNT is giving up 27.9 ppg. For the Sun Belt that might qualify as an elite defense, but in the rest of the FBS world that is slightly below average.  UNT is 73rd out of the 120 FBS teams in spite of UNT's success controlling the clock and avoiding turnovers.

The Mean Green defense is tied for 78th in the nation in sacks despite having a defense that sells out the run to get more speed on the field in the pass rush. They surrender 4.5 yards per carry.

Kansas State's offense averages 4.6 yards per carry and is the nation's 26th ranked rushing offense. The Wildcats' passing offense is more than competent, completing 65 percent of their passes for 181 yards per game with 13 TDs and eight interceptions.

Kansas State won't give this game away, but an inspired bounceback game vs. the run by UNT's star defensive tackles Shavod Atkinson and Kelvin Jackson and the rest of the front seven could give the Mean Green a chance in this game.

Kansas State has already clinched bowl eligibility and has not been closing out its games as of late.  While the Wildcats are competitive each week, their only win in their last five games is over a Texas team that is playing lousy, Sun Belt caliber football.

Despite being a matchup of two running teams, this game has the look of a track meet.  Given that Kansas State has to travel and that UNT may be closing better, the Mean Green has a shot.

Welcome to the 11th entry in a series of weekly articles that pose the big questions facing the University of North Texas.

Having knocked off Middle Tennessee, the second most dominant team in the Sun Belt over the last few years, on the road last week 23-17 and losing narrowly to the Sun Belt's 800-lb gorilla (Troy) the week prior 41-35 (and then likely only due to a late penalty), The Mean Green have to be feeling pretty good about themselves.

That has been a recipe for disaster for North Texas over the last few years and leads us to this week's question.

Will the Mean Green bring a winner's edge into this game?

You can come into a game with a good deal of enthusiasm, but if you lack the focus and attention to details, you can give the game away with penalties and turnovers.  UNT fans have seen that a lot.

You can also just come out flat and get smoked.  We saw that last year against ULM when they fed the Mean Green the Fouts Field turf in a 33-6 non-competitive ball control asskicking in front of the Mean Green faithful.

ULM is a much better team that a lot of people expected this year. While they are statistically lousy, they are 4-6. They are a perfect example of why it is so important to reach that middle of the pack competitiveness level.  ULM has been a middle of the pack Sun Belt school for years, and their players know they can beat bad teams. 

Remember this is the team that crushed Troy and destroyed their confidence.

They are more than capable of beating UNT.  UNT will have to avoid mistakes and will likely need to match the level of play that they have delivered in the last two weeks to win this game.

This is a hugely important game for UNT. If UNT loses, they remain a bottom of the Sun Belt team and have to consider that fact the entire off season.  If they win it and finish with a 4-4 record in conference, it means they have climbed into the middle of the pack.  It sets this team up with a lot of confidence heading into next year where they can take the next step. 

Also if they lose this game, they won't enter next season knowing that they can string together consecutive wins.

This is a huge game for UNT.

The matchups

On paper, the statistics favor UNT.  The difference in the two teams' abilities to close out games narrows the gap.

Defensively ULM gives up 32.9 ppg. They give up 4.4 yards per carry, but their pass coverage suggests ULM's defense is better than one suspects.  ULM is fourth in the Sun Belt in defensive pass efficiency and hold their opponents to a 55.2% completion percentage.  They have yielded 17 TDs, but they also have collected 10 INTs (tied for 2nd best in the Sun Belt) while recording 22 sacks.

Their stats do suggest the ULM defense wears down and loses focus as a team gets into their red zone. (30 TDs yielded on 46 trips to the red zone.)

It would make sense for UNT to protect Riley Dodge and pass less than they have the last few weeks, but go for it once they clear the 35 yard line.

UNT has the Sun Belt's #1 run offense (196 yards per game) and are also #1 in time of possession (32:58 per game).

ULM's big issues appear to be offensive ones.  They average a Sun Belt worst 17.9 ppg. 

Their passing offense is more than respectable completing 62.2% of their passes for 6.8 yards per attempt with 12 TDs and 12 INTs. Their running game, however, has been a season long problem: ULM gains only 2.7 yards per carry.  (It should be noted that they have had a couple of good games from their running backs this year — notably against Troy- so inconsistency should be the seen as the main problem with the ULM running game.)

In spite of the poor ground game, ULM does a pretty good job of controlling the clock.  The scheme is good, but the execution and talent has not been consistent.

ULM has only marginal success in the red zone, scoring 13 TDs in 25 trips. That factor also again speaks to execution and the running game.

ULM is -7 in the turnover margin, UNT is -1.

With luck the focus will be there and UNT will pay the Warhawks back with their own ball control ass whipping in front of their home crowd.  We will see.

Welcome to the 10th entry in a series of weekly articles that pose the big questions facing the University of North Texas.

UNT played a tremendous game against Troy last week, and by all reports entered this week's practices with renewed focus and enthusiasm.

Does that mean UNT should beat Middle Tennessee?  Who can say? While curiously UNT has had both of its victories on the road this year (away from a pessimistic and subdued home crowd?) they also totally imploded on the road after the emotional loss of a QB (QB No. 2 Derek Thompson).  A no-show appears unlikely, but is totally possible.

If UNT shows up, like it generally has on the road and as it has since Canales took over, this is a game UNT could very well steal.  Call them a live dog.

Will UNT Make the Deciding Factor of the Game Be Their Defensive Core?

UNT has the assets to be able to dictate how this game rolls out.

MTSU has not been the same kind of dominant offense that they have been in previous years.  They have actually surrendered 28 turnovers this year (12 fumbles and 16 INTs), by far the worst in the Sun Belt.

Perhaps they straightened out the problems in their bye week.  Maybe not.

That said, it very well may not matter if Dasher runs for 75 yards and two touchdowns again this year against UNT.  If this season is any indication, MTSU might struggle not to be somewhat one dimensional vs. UNT.

Could UNT's pass defense do alright vs. MTSU?  MTSU has not thrown that well against anyone else, why not against UNT too?

However, any problems MTSU may have throwing the ball will be irrelevant if MTSU can once again regularly count on Dasher to run for first downs on 3rd-and-long.

I am of the mindset that a top running QB combined with a strong running games is two dimensions.  Their scoring average would seem to support that.

If UNT allows Dasher's running on passing downs to consistently move the chains again this year, winning will be difficult.  This would be a great game for the linebackers to take their play up a notch and play more disciplined ball and tackle more securely in space.

If UNT's LBs and safeties can help keep Dasher's feet under control (and the Mean Green do not relapse into the late hitting knuckle heads they were earlier in the year—something that has noticeably diminished under Canales), the game could come down to MTSU vs. the best pair of defensive tackles in the conference and two MLBs playing their best ball of the season.

That is a matchup UNT would likely win.

The Numbers

MTSU averages 26.6 ppg. UNT gives up 26.8 ppg.

MTSU can run run the ball, gaining 4.3 yards a carry on their way to 179 yards per game on the ground.  They are tied for the most rushing TDs in the sun belt with 20. They have scored 18 TDs in 28 trips to the end zone (64 percent).  Sixteen of those (57 percent) have been rushing TDs. This is still a veteran winning team that smells blood in the red zone and will try to pound it in.

QB Dasher is an elite rushing threat and UNT's defense under Gary DeLoach the last few years has historically struggled with running QBs.  UNT's defense yields 4.4 yards per carry and is one of the better defenses in the Sun Belt about yielding rushing TDs only surrendering 14.

MTSU's passing offense has been quite inconsistent this year with all the problems that have faced their QB.  As a team MTSU has completed 58.6 percent of their passes with six TDs and 14 INTs and is dead last in pass efficiency in the Sun Belt with a 106.9 efficiency rating. 

While UNT should not jump at every pass, it should be prepared.  There will probably be safe opportunities for interceptions against MTSU.

It speaks volumes that even with the second-best rushing offense in the conference, MTSU has the worst time of possession at 26:17 per game. 

UNT's pass defense is giving up completions at a 56.3 percent rate and has yielded 14 touchdowns this year already (about average for the Sun Belt).

MTSU gives up 30 ppg. UNT scores 20.7 ppg, but has scored 33 and 35 points in the last two weeks respectively and appears to be rediscovering its ability to put points up on the board.  UNT's offense averages a Sun Belt-best 4.6 yards per carry.  MTSU yields 4.1 yards per carry.

Riley Dodge and the UNT passing game had one of their best efforts all season vs. Troy last week. UNT should be able to have some success if they execute well.

MTSU is surrendering completions at a rate of only 55.6 percent and has only surrendered 13 TDs this year, but on the same token they are not a ball-hawking team either.  MTSU is tied with UNT as the conference's worst at making interceptions with only five all year.

MTSU's defense has tallied a Sun Belt-worst nine turnovers this year.  Canales should be aggressive again this week and UNT may be able to get away with a untimely pass here or there.

This game lays out as one where UNT should be able to control the clock, keep tits defense fresh and win the game.  Does that actually happen?  Who can say?

MTSU has to see that and will likely try to shuffle the cards. After all, the Blue Raiders have an aggressive Head Coach too.

You could see trick plays from MTSU, especially on special teams where UNT has played well as of late, but is usually very predictable and sometimes marginally prepared.

MTSU has kicked three onside kicks this year, recovering one.   They will probably want to steal a possession against UNT.  It would be sensible to be aware of that and coach the return crews to secure the ball and get down on onside kicks.

MTSU also leads the conference in fourth down conversions, completing five-of-eight successfully.  Fake punts and field goals should also be kept in mind.

Mike Canales and UNT's players treated the Mean Green fanbase of 14,289 fans to something they haven't seen in years last night: 60 minutes of a football slugfest against Troy.

While UNT did not win this game, they probably should have, and that is not something we can say about a game against Troy in quite a while.

This is the kind of game against a strong Sun Belt team we expected from this team entering the year and that suggests they are starting to play to their potential.

The last few years UNT's players would enter the Troy game already mentally conceding it.  They didn't yesterday.  They fought them tooth and nail for 60 minutes.  This was an important step for this team.

If the Mean Green have either a similar close loss or actually defeat MTSU, UNT will enter next year with no Sun Belt team owning their heads.  That is an important step for a team in becoming a contender.

Mike Canales is doing a great job of focusing the players and setting up the team for a good season next year.  He is coaching himself on to the front runners list for the head coaching job next year.

Still it wasn't all roses...UNT's defense was again slow out of the gate

It has been the story all season.  UNT surrenders a TD on the first drive and sleepwalks through the first half, assuring the team has to play from behind in the second.   UNT has surrendered on average 18.2 points in the first half of games (hell, if you eliminate the WKU game, the only game all year where UNT's defense played tough from start to finish, UNT is giving up 20.1 points each game in the first half).

UNT was down 24-14 at the half Saturday.  They surrendered 252 yards passing on 13-of-20 with 3 TD and 1 INT and an added 35 yards rushing. 

They were on pace to give up 48 points and surrender 574 yards with the best clock control offense in the Sun Belt helping them?  This is good defense?

This Troy unit has rolled up big yards all season but has self destructed at key moments.  With that in mind, UNT didn't do anything all that amazing as a unit all game.

I love the players, but UNT has the most overrated defensive unit in the Sun Belt.  Surrendering 26.7 points per game is a vast improvement over previous years, but lets be honest—how much of that success is actually a reflection of the fact UNT's offense is at the top of the Sun Belt in time of possession and rushing yardage (ranked 30th at the FBS level)? 

UNT's offense does a lot to cool down an opposing offense and they do it just about every week.

UNT surrendered 41 points to Troy.  Only one team surrendered more points to Troy all season. 

There are a number of ways you can look at this. Perhaps Troy was very sharp after an embarrassing loss. Sure, that is reasonable.  Is it reasonable to think Troy gave their best effort of the year against an historic doormat?  That is much less so. 

Lets looks at it from a pessimistic angle. Perhaps UNT has the second worst players Troy has played all year or other defensive coaching staffs did a better job preparing their players than UNT's defensive staff did.

The answer is proabably in there somewhere.

UNT yielded nine points MORE than Troy's season average. It was not like UNT's offense kept turning the ball over in scoring position.  There were no UNT turnovers.  UNT's defense was constantly put in pretty good situations.

To read a lot of local content, the conventional wisdom is this is a great defense.

Really?

This to me is not on the defensive players.  There was good effort overall against good talent.  Plus there were a ton of great individual efforts last night.

While I do acknowledge that this coaching staff does a great job at making halftime adjustments, this season does seem to imply they are pretty lousy at coming up with a defensive game plan that anticipates what their opponent will do.  If this doesn't change, the defense's performance has to be weighed impartially in the off-season.

Has UNT progressed as far as today's Gary DeLoach can take them?  It is a harsh question, but the defense has been at this level for over a season now.  When will they consistently take the next step?

It is not good enough to be one of the better defenses in a conference where no one plays good defense. 

What is the difference between allowing 26.7 points per game partnered with the conference's best running game and the conference's best ball control attack vs. giving up 29.7 ppg like Arkansas State's defense which is partnered with the league's second worst ball control attack?  Is there a difference?

I think in terms of talent, there certainly is.

If the defense continue at this level, whether coaching was a problem is a question that seems likely to be asked following the season.

Taking a very granular look, in my opinion, with the talent on hand this should not be the second worst defense Troy played all season.  Do you disagree?

But the players did well

The players showed a ton of heart.  They do most weeks, so just showing heart may be seen as nothing out of the ordinary there.

What was out of the ordinary was that they showed it against the league powerhouse.  They showed up and didn't quit all night.  That is the kind of maturity in their play that frankly Dodge never was able to extract.   It is the kind of good play regardless of opponent that could dramatically increase the team's chances of success next year.

If you want to call it maturity or even courage or guts, that is fine.  Whatever you want to call it, they showed it.

Riley Dodge stepped up and played his best game in forever.  He kept grinding away until he hit three or four big passes.  He ended the night 17-of-29 for 269 yards with 3 TD and no turnovers despite the fact that he was wearing Troy DE J. Massaquoi all night (three sacks).

Dodge is really owning the QB job.  I think at this point it looks like he may be the starter next year.  He is playing with fire and guts and IMO it appears to be inspiring the whole team.  This week he took his game up a notch, topping past efforts with effective mid-ranged passing to the wide receivers.

Canales, for his part, has been calling inspired ball since he landed the head coaching position.  He was certainly pretty good before, but he has risen to the occasion, amped up his aggressiveness, and is keeping opponents guessing and the chains moving.  Hopefully the UNT passing game will continue along on this path of recent improvement.

It was particularly encouraging to see UNT throw the ball up field more and to see Canales clear out some space for Dunbar to work on the TD pass.  Jamaal Jackson was sent down field.  The very reliable Alex Lott was thrown the ball.

Dunbar is only half the player he could be because UNT does very little to throw Dunbar the ball in space.  It bodes well for the future production of UNT's offense if Mike Canales is now starting to utilize this talent better.

Lance Dunbar will take some heat for the penalty that killed what should have been the game winning drive, but he deserves a little bit of a flier.  Dunbar played one of his best games ever against a good defense and left it all on the field.  He had to get help from the trainers for cramps to get off the field on the play he was flagged.

The kid carried UNT's offense all game long and he is such a competitor that you know he will feel a need to make it up to the team next week.  Fans should lay off him.

The offensive line suffered injuries to Kelvin Drake and Matt Tomlinson and kept hitting people.

Brelan Chancellor and Zack Olen have played a big part in turning UNT's special teams from below average to quite good over the last few weeks.  Chancellor was terrific last night averaging 26 yards per carry on kickoff returns and playing well on coverage.

Olen may have narrowly missed a 42 yarder last night, but the quick height on his kicks assured that there was no risk of a block.  His kickoffs could be deeper, but looked pretty solid to me.  I think there is a gain in placement.

DEs Brandon Akpunku and Brandon McCoy had sacks. Kelvin Jackson and Shavod Atkinson played well again at DT.

MLBs AJ Penson and Zack Orr both continued to ramp their games.  Orr had 8 tackles and a break up; Penson had an Interception.

Craig Robertson had another good game with a team leading 14 tackles.  Jason Phillips had a pretty good game too.

Royce Hill had some really nice moments and a nice break up.

UNT's big interception to set up what should have been the game winning score was made by one of this year's three star recruits who had been glued to the bench for most of the year (just saying).

It was a great read and a great play.

Heart and maturity.  Hopefully Mike Canales will be able to continue to help the players see and play to their potential. 

Canales is proving to be the kind of snake oil salesman UNT fans have long felt the program needed at the top

There has been a belief for years that UNT needs a used car salesman in charge.  Someone who can sell the university even when there is nothing much there to sell. There is growing evidence that Canales fits that bill.

It goes without saying that UNT Athletic Director Rick Villareal is somewhat intrigued by him (otherwise why do you fire Dodge early and why do you give Canales the interim job over DeLoach?).

He has charmed the local media better than any snake charmer could soothe a pit of cobras.

The players appear to have bought into what he is selling and are giving great effort each week.

And his machine gun fire responses of sensible football chat on his radio appearances have the fans thinking, "This guy could be the real deal.  Maybe we shouldn't rush out to land someone else."

Where Todd Dodge may have at times assumed his resume would carry him, Canales is working hard to win one convert at a time.

A final note on attendance

Attendance is short hand for the size of a schools fan base and the simple reality is that UNT will have crappy attendance numbers in both revenue sports this year.

Coming off a win and pulling the largest Sun Belt traveling fan base all season long, UNT drew 14,289 last night dropping their season average to 16,870 (for the season, UNT has drawn 84,354 fans to the piece of crap with a track that is Fouts Field).

Attendance is one of the few hard numbers conferences have to look at.  This total would be one of the lowest numbers in CUSA.

The schedule in basketball is loaded with games that are irrelevant to UNT fans, so in spite of a great returning team with legitimate NCAA tourney-run aspirations, basketball attendance is likely to lag again this year as well.

I mention this because Mean Green fans need to think about what this says about UNT.

If UNT has another dog football turnout and then draws poorly in basketball, at best it says UNT fans will only support the football team if it is winning and that they won't support basketball at all. 

Is there anything in the last 3 decades that suggests that CUSA should anticipate UNT being a winning football program in their conference? They have to assume UNT will be a losing school in CUSA and UNT fans won't show up or watch the games on TV.

The interpretation that schools hostile to UNT will push is that UNT fans just don't support either of their revenue sports.

UNT's poor turnouts will certainly reduce the attractiveness of UNT to CUSA and give added weight to anything bad SMU may want to say about UNT.

If UNT's fans don't want to show up, they really shouldn't bother talking about CUSA, because barring a series of highly improbable tumblers, it ain't happening.

I mean come on! Old Dominion started playing football two years ago at the freaking FCS level and they have a significantly better per game turnout in football AND basketball and they have a pretty good market to boot.  It can be argued they are a better candidate for CUSA and perhaps even a more likely one should they decide to move up!

If you are going to talk about CUSA and dreamily knit your CUSA sweaters—at least go to the freaking games.

If not, you'd better be prepared for a long Sun Belt future.

Welcome to the ninth entry in a series of weekly articles that pose the big questions facing the University of North Texas.

Coming off a big road 33-6 upset demolition of Western Kentucky, UNT faces the team that most would agree has been their kryptonite—the Troy Trojans.

Before we talk about the big question we should take a quick peak back at last week.

The WKU game was a good win, but let's not erect statues of interim coach Mike Canales yet.

I think there are legitimately some great things to take out of the game.

Special teams won that component of the game.

The defense actually dominated an opponent like good defenses do fairly frequently.

OK, that is enough praise.  Time for some perspective.

Lets remember that WKU was coming off not only their first conference win, but a landslide victory.  Let's remember WKU is a young team.  Although no one thought it entering the game, they proved just as incapable of UNT of knowing how to manage success.

And WKU does not have the most explosive weapons at the receiver spots to start and was missing their best TE.

And their defense is pretty marginal.

It can easily be seen as a game where UNT's superior talent overwhelmed a less talented and less focused team.

Still I don't want to take too much away from UNT or the Mean Green defense.   This is the first time all season they stepped on a team's throat and didn't let up.  That is a hugely important first step to becoming a good team. Good job Boys!

And now the question of the week...

Will UNT concede the game on Wednesday or Thursday or will they go out and play on Saturday with the intent of stealing this game?

I am not going to sugar coat.  UNT has conceded the game to Troy before the initial snap the last few years.

This is a game UNT could win if they play like they believe they can.

This is not the same Troy team that dominated the conference the last few years.  They are still one of the two best teams in the conference, but they have some weak areas that UNT can attack.

The talent differential is not that pronounced at all this year.

If UNT plays hard every snap they can be in this game.  If they play with the idea of winning they can actually win it.

If they are still the team they have been they will lose in a landslide.  Has this team really matured?  We will see.

The Nitty Gritty

Troy is still the best offense in the league.  In the Sun Belt you have five teams that can run the ball and four teams that can't.   Troy can run the ball.  They are averaging a 4.3 yards a carry.

Their passing offense is the best in the league completing 62% of their passes for 284 yards a game.

UNT is giving up 4.4 yards a carry, but is allowing only 53% of their passes to be completed.

Did UNT's defense come of age last week, or was that just a match-up win?  We will see.

Troy is not great at scoring TDs this year.  Their offense may still be capable of moving the ball, but they can be forced into FGs.  They have scored on 73.5% of their trips to the red zone, but only 16/34 trips have resulted in TDs (47%)

Troy is a little sloppy this year, giving up the most penalty yards in the league.  That is the MO of the kind of team that can be upset by a disciplined effort by a competent ball control team with a good defense.

Troy's defense is still good, but it is not at the level of past squads.  When you consider UNT TODAY is starting all but one player (JJ Johnson) off the offense UNT thought last year it would have in 2010, it seems reasonable that UNT could score enough to be in the game.

Are the Mean Green disciplined and mentally tough enough to beat a more talented team?  Can they avoid the stupid penalties?  Can they refuse to surrender the game?

This is another step towards being a good team. Can they take it?

Welcome to the eighth entry in a series of weekly articles that pose the big questions facing the University of North Texas.

This week, UNT is coming off a bye that saw them lose their coach, Todd Dodge, and will face a Western Kentucky team that is coming off a 54-21 demolition of University of Louisiana-Lafayette. 

The question is pretty simple this week.

Will UNT's defense be able to hold WKU's one-two punch of Kawaun Jakes and Bobby Rainey under 20 points?

The fact that WKU scored at will against UL-L is irrelevant. UL-L looked like the wheels were close to falling off after Kevis Streeter went down early against UNT. They had a fumble and an interception returned for touchdowns against WKU. 

UNT has the talent to hold WKU under 20 points, regardless of the fact that QB Jakes and RB Rainey are among the best in the Sun Belt at their positions. Actually pulling it off would be a big accomplishment for UNT.

WKU is a dangerous team because they are set at those two key spots and are well-coached on properly utilizing the strong tandem.

Rainey is the leading rusher in the Sun Belt with 119.7 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. Jakes has been inconsistent in his sophomore year, but is fifth in the Sun Belt in passing efficiency with 14 passing TDs and seven interceptions.

The Matchups

Western Kentucky gives up a Sun Belt-worst 5.1 yards per carry. UNT leads the Sun Belt in total rushing yards (1,214), and average time of possession (33:09). Regardless of the scoring, UNT's offense is likely to put their defense in a good position.

Western Kentucky allows an atrocious 65 percent completion rate and has the second worst efficiency rating in the Sun Belt. If Riley Dodge is able to start, it could be another shootout.

UNT's offense should be able to control the clock, and with Zack Olen, they should be able to pile up field goals at the very least.

The question is the UNT defense. Western Kentucky is great in the red zone. In 20 trips to the red zone, they have scored 17 times (85 percent), with 14 coming on touchdowns (70 percent).

UNT has allowed 21 scores in 26 red zone opportunities (81 percent) and 14 touchdowns (54 percent).

If WKU can score touchdowns while UNT is kicking field goals, UNT's odds of winning are slim.

WKU lacks quality depth on defense, but overall, they are well-coached and don't beat themselves. 

WKU is tied for second in the Sun Belt with a 0 turnover margin (UNT is second-to-last with a -6 ratio). WKU is second in penalties, surrendering only 46 yards and getting their opponents to commit 62 yards of penalties a game—which is good for +16 yards. UNT, on the other hand, incurs 11 more yards of penalties than their opponents.

Western Kentucky also has home field advantage and thinks they owe UNT a loss.

Western Kentucky does not have the talent yet to be considered an upper echelon team, but they will compete by forcing their opponents to beat them.

At the start of the season, most UNT fans had this game penciled in as a win. Today it should be considered an upset if UNT wins.

Let's see if UNT defensive coordinator Gary DeLoach can deliver.