North Texas Mean Green Football

I try to be a positive writer.  I look for positives in defeat because defeat can teach you more then winning if you are willing to play attention.  Plus, if you cannot find positives on which to improve, losses are devistating. 

UNT has has a number of "learning opportunities" this season.  While even in this loss there were positives, sometimes your team just gets their butt kicked and that demands to be addressed.

I have said many times this season that I am not as taken with Troy as most.  I still am not.

Sure, they may run the table in the tissue paper weak sunbelt and may beat CUSA's #5 team in the Sunbelt's lone bowl game, but what does that really mean?  They are the 70th best team in the country? The 50th?

I mean the Associated Press doesn't even know what conference Troy plays in!  Check it out:

"TROY, Ala. -- Levi Brown threw for a school-record 469 yards as Troy remained unbeaten in Sun Belt Conference play with a 50-26 win over North Texas on Saturday.

Brown, who has been the Big South player of the week three of the past four weeks..."

Big South? You mean the FCS conference,The Big South?

Feh.

Still, you have to give Trojans credit for this win.  They played mistake free ball and unlike every other team UNT has faced this season (outside of #1 Alabama) Troy refused to let UNT into this game.

Troy has the best defense in the sunbelt and a good solid sunbelt offense with a good offensive line.  All game long the Troy offense rolled over the UNT defense like a tank grinding out 3-6 yards a play.

They pushed UNT's defense down the feild like a push broom moves dust.

You can come up with a million disturbing anolgies for UNT's defensive performance.

UNT's defense in many ways is a bend not break defense.  They expect an opponent to make mistakes and kill their drives.  The plain facts of the matter is the Troy starters played very disciplined ball and didn't make a mistake all day long.

Troy played an excellent game.

UNT was never in this game. 

Troy throughly dismantantled UNT. I may not think Troy is a great team, but there is no denying they destroyed UNT.

To me, as a Mean Green fan, this was the worst loss of the season.  Not because UNT was dominated.  It is because UNT was dominated by a team that in the grand scheme of things isn't dominant.

Enough dwelling on the loss, where are the positives?

After losses like this, sometimes despiration ploys to climb back into a game reveal golden facets of players' games.  That was the case today.

UNT found a top level kick returner.  I wish I had thought of it before, because it makes a world of sense, but Jamaal Jackson was dynamite on kickoff returns.  Jackson, UNT's most elusive and fastest WR, has been the biggest threat in the UNT passing game for most of the season.

He is very capable of making one or even a couple defenders miss, but has a bad habit of east/west running.

As a kick returner, Jackson is in full gear running north/south with his team best 4.4 speed before he hits the opposition.  If this experiment continues, he may end up being the best in the sunbelt.

Additionally, playing him as a kick returner likely will only make him a better runner as a receiver.

On the negative side UNT also rolled him out as a punt returner.  I am a lot less enthusiastic about that. That does not look like it will work.  I'd stick with CB Royce Hill or WR Darius Carey in that role.

Several offensive players had good games. 

Michael Outlaw was one of the few UNT players who delivered when hopes of making this a game existed.   He was the primary reason UNT scored in the first half.  He also caught a 4th quarter TD.

I have been probably more critical of Outlaw than any other member of this team, but when UNT faced their best potentially beatable opponent this season, Outlaw came to play and took his game up a notch.  Good on him.

Nathan Tune's second quarter interception may have put the nail in the coffin for UNT this game, but Tune played a very solid game completing 22/33 for 267 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT.

The Troy defense shut down the UNT OL and as such bottled up 202 lb scatback Lance Dunbar until the third quarter when Troy was up by 34 points.  Once Troy started substituting liberally, gaps began opening and Dunbar came to life.   Dunbar ended the game with great stats --- 114 yards and 2 rushing TDs on only 14 carries and another 90 receiving yards on 4 catches for another TD, but was a non-factor when the game was in question.

UNT won fourth quarter 13-0.  That may not mean a whole lot to most reporters.  It may not mean a whole lot to a lot of fans as Troy had their backups in and was more than willing to trade points for time, but it is a positive for UNT and a real one.

Teams develop habits.  UNT's habit has been not to score in the fourth quarter this season and has lost a number of games over 4th quarter collapses.  They are much better about that lately. 

They tied FAU 7-7 in the fourth last week and regardless of the circumstances won the fourth this week.  If UNT makes this a point to focus on and it becomes a trend, it may very well help them win some close games in the season's second half.

Any Defensive positives?

Well, not really. But sometimes that in itself is a positive.

In the last two games UNT has given up 94 points.  In this game UNT surrendered just under 700 yards.

To put this in perspective, UNT's defense that was by far the worst in the nation last year only gave up 45 to Troy.

The Mean Green defense forced 1 punt in Troy's first 10 drives.  The only other stop the Mean Green had against the Troy starters in those 10 drives was a 4th and 1 stop at the UNT 1 yard line ---sadly that was after an 11 play 79 yard march down the field by Troy.  Every other drive resulted in points.

Troy used this defense like toilet paper.

Sometimes that is what it takes to deliver a wakeup call to the head coach and defensive coordinator that changes are needed.

This defensive philosophy may work next season when every defensive lineman has added 10 lbs of muscle, but it is garbage for this year's personnel.

Dodge and his staff assume that they will score 30-40 points a game minimum.  Their defensive philosophy is based on the idea that teams will be forced to play catchup with UNT and will become one dimensional, allowing UNT's DL to tee off on the pass rush.

The back seven was selected to cover, read, and tackle.  When pressure from the pass rush disrupts timing, UNT's back seven can make plays and generate turnovers.

None of that is happening.

UNT is not running out to big leads.

UNT's defense doesn't play like they believe they can make stops. 

One may argue that Tobe Nwigwe could have dramatically changed the game, but does anyone really beleive that?  As good as he is, this defense has played with a little less confidence every week.

UNT cannot mount a pass rush.  While the back 7 is pretty decent in coverage in most games, it has few playmakers.

And the team is vulnerable vs. the run.

Very few defenses can stop the pass and the run.  A competent defense usually stops one or the other and count on a one-dimensional offense to make mistakes on long drives.

UNT has sacrificed their run defense to sell out on the pass.

It isn't working.

UNT has to win out to finish a bowl eligible 6-6.  Every remeaining game is winnable, but they have no margin of error. 

They won't go even 3-3 if the defense continues to surrender 40+ points a game.

If UNT hopes to pull this season out of the toilet it needs to develop defensive confidence that they can stop SOMETHING.

They have already proven in their minds that they cannot rush the passer and as such they cannot stop the pass. 

Why not sell out to stop the run? 

This team has the talent to do it.

It is time to put in some run stuffing defensive ends in.   It is time to sit true freshmen DE KC Obi.  It is time to end the Eddrick Gillmore to DT experiment.  It is time to look at moving Draylen Ross back to his high school position of Defensive End.  It is time to give Tevinn Cantly more time at DE and put more pressure on him to produce.  It is time to consider moving Kyle White into the DT rotation.

Why not look for playmakers?  I'd love to see more of S John Shorter and LBs Daniel Prior and Jeremy Phillips.

Coaching and the Athletic Director

When you get spanked like this, you open the door for a lot of second guessing from the fans.  That could ultimately be good too.

Last week, I laid out the reasons why it would be foolish to fire Dodge, but I think it may very well be high time for the AD Rick Villarreal to pull Dodge in for a "come to Jesus".

I think it was pretty likely that the AD worked with Dodge over the off-season to come up with strategies to overcome team and coaching weaknesses last year.

It may be time for him to offer pointed advice to Dodge like, "Stop freaking running out of the shotgun in short yardage situations!"

Dumb stuff like that only incites all of the UNT fan base.  Considering the protection Villarreal has provided Dodge over the years, It probably is not too much for Villarreal to ask Dodge to return the favor and take that out of his playbook.

I never thought I would say this, but man what I wouldn't give to see a QB sneak!

Hell, put your 5 biggest strongest linemen out there with Draylen Ross at TE (He played TE in high school too).  If you feel a need to protect your top 2 QBs, have 6-4 225 lb backup QB Derek Thomspon, your biggest QB, run the sneak.  Hell have Micah Mosely take the snap and stick his head into the line if you have to, but jeez --- figure out a way to run a successful sneak!

You can't continue to play an undersized OL to nurse Riley through the season.  Riley will be a great player as a Junior or Senior, but as a redshirt freshman, he is only marginally better than Nathan Tune.

You cannot gut your short yardage running game just to allow Riley to take snaps.  It simply is a losing proposition. 

We can all make that argument, but it may need to come from Villareal for Dodge to really consider mid-season changes.

Hopefully this game leads to big changes by Dodge and his staff.  They are needed.

Can they do it?

Maybe.

UNT has shown an ability to hang with every team they have played this year with the exception of Alabama.

Game 1: Beat Ball State triggering a collapse in confidence for the Cardinals.

Game 2: Dominated 5-2 Ohio for 3 most of the game.  QB Riley Dodge is knocked out of the game and QB Nathan Tune is picked off for a TD in his first playing time of the season. Regulation play ends in a tie.  UNT dropped 2 well thrown TD passes from backup QB Nathan Tune late to lose in double OT by 1.

Game 3: Lost 53-7 to the now #1 team in America, 7-0 Alabama.  Alabama was coming off a weak showing vs. FIU and was feeling heat from their fans.  UNT took their A game and scored a TD even though backup QB Nathan Tune had to start and UNT had some other key players out.

Game 4: UNT played 3-3 MTSU fairly even through the first quarter and then fell asleep in the second playing horribly on both sides of the ball and spotting the Blue Raiders a 30-7 halftime lead.  UNT came raging back in the third dominating the Blue Raiders and cutting the lead to 9.  Then disaster struck.  UNT forced a potentially game changing fumble but didn't recover it, tipping off a meltdown.  Their leader Tobe Nwigwe got called for unsportsman-like conduct.  The team emotionally collapses and allows a MTSU TD on the next play.   UNT never emotionally recovers and loses 37-21.

Game 5: Riley Dodge throws 2 INTs that are turned into 10 pts. The Mean Green suffer a blocked punt for another TD.  In spite of giving 4-2 ULL 17 first half points, UNT dominates the first half going in to the locker room tied 24-24.  In the third quarter UNT comes out and and takes a commanding 34-24 lead.  Lulled to sleep, the defense allowed ULL to mount a rare drive for a TD to cut the lead to 34-31. UNT's punter boots a 10 yard Punt and ULL takes it in on a short field for a TD.  A shocked UNT loses 38-34.

Game 6: UNT's defense is a no show but UNT still has a chance to win against one of the sunbelt pre-season favorities 1-5 FAU. Dodge is again knocked out, but Tune leads a comback to take the lead 40-37.  UNT foregoes a FG to potentially take a 6 point lead and goes for it on 4th and 3. They are stopped. FAU capitializes on the momentum shift and goes in for the winning score.  Without the FG, UNT was down 44-40 instead of 44-43 and they needed to drive the length of the field for a TD. A stunned Mean Green team was unable to put that kind drive together.

This UNT team is 3 plays away from being 4-2 and arguably could be 5-1.  They have dominated winning teams like Ohio and ULL for most of those games and have dominated talented teams like MTSU and FAU for a couple quarters.

But they haven't put together 4 good quarters all season.

UNT has only scored in the fourth quarter in two games.  They won the fourth quarter vs. Ball State and played FAU to a 7-7 draw last week.

Eventually, UNT will probably put 4 good quarters together and will win the fourth quarter.  When that happens they will beat whoever they are playing that week.

Could it be Troy?

Maybe.

Troy is a good team that most sunbelt teams are conditioned to lose to, but UNT has been condidtioned to lose to EVERY sunbelt team but Western Kentucky over the last few years.  UNT has still been in every sunbelt game this season.  Troy's mental edge may not be as strong this week as it normally is.

UNT has dominated good teams for periods all season long. 

Tune has played very well this season, has a live arm, and has faced the nation's best defense AND put a TD Drive together on them. With all due respect to Riley Dodge who may end up being a mobile Ty Detemer by his senior year and the best QB to ever play at UNT, Tune is not likely to give Troy 4 or 5 turnovers.

UNT has one of the best OLs in the conference and talent at the skill spots. 

UNT's defense can force 3 and outs with consistency when they are focused.  (The focus just hasn't been there lately.)

UNT will have moments vs. Troy.  Can they do it for most of the game?

Maybe.

Additionally, this Troy team has shown some dog this year.  Could they take UNT a little lightly?

Maybe.

One of their reporters was quoted in the Denton paper saying Troy should win easily.  That certainly implies at least the media thinks this will be a cakewalk for Troy.

Certainly they could be right.

But I think all football players have pride.  UNT has suffered a pair of self inflicted defeats, endured a week of fans calling for their coach's head, and then had to read about how they weren't talented enough to play with Troy and how Troy would win easily.

I said earlier this season that this UNT has a little uppityness that hasn't been seen around here in a while.

I think it comes out this week.

UNT's upperclassmen called the team together this week.  It is easy to blow off "players only meetings" as the despirate act of collapsing teams. 

Generally they are.

Usually the teams simply lack the talent to win, so player's only meetings don't do much.

The thing is, in spite of tons of mistakes, this team is playing well enough to win every week.  The game plans are usually solid.  The coaching is there.  The effort is there. They have just lacked the leadership from upperclassmen to close the deal.

If that leadership is asserting itself...If that leadership stops the lack of focus the leads to long drives and eliminates ill-timed penalties... If they quicly rally their teammates after each Troy score,  UNT may be able to take every punch Troy gives out.

If that happens UNT might very well win this game --- regardless of how Troy plays.

No maybes about it.

A lot of North Texas fans want Todd Dodge's head today. I think they need to back up and look at things logically rather than emotionally.

UNT's AD has said that if Dodge's team is competitive this season Dodge will be retained for next season. That is the stated criteria on which Dodge will be judged. Changing the criteria and firing Dodge would only make this job appear less stable and the administration appear less honest for incoming coaching candidates.

Based off that alone, Dodge will probably be back. His team has been competitive, probably nothing any fans or alumni do will change the criteria.

To me, it is not enough that fans begrudgingly accept the likely status quo while calling for Dodge's head on every forum.

This kind of behavior can do a lot of additional harm to the program and for that reason, I think they should stop.

I think that they should forget that his record record is the worst all-time record at UNT. They should stop throwing out the "he hasn't earned more time" and the "his record is worst than X coach we fired" arguments.

Not because those arguments aren't true or valid.

They are.

Rather, they should stop because those arguments hurt this team's chances to win this year, hurt the team's potential in recruiting in the upcoming offseason, and most importantly, are trumped by bigger issues.

Current Year

This team is trying to move from being a team that is competitive to a team that can win every game. That's hard enough for a team with few seniors to do. They don't need the in-season distractions of alumni calling for their coach's head.

Postseason Recruiting

Obviously it hurts the team to have public calls for Dodge's head while the team is chasing recruits. Every three-star recruit that Dodge might lose hurts UNT over the next four years—even if Dodge is not here. That is something that really needs to be understood.

"I can't complain in season or after the season? Forget that!" Certainly you can complain. I am just encouraging you to do it in a way that it doesn't hurt the university. Write the president or the AD and voice your concerns—just don't be lazy about it and complain in forums that potential recruits or current players may read.

Complain all you want, just don't do it in a way that hurts UNT.

The Bigger Issues That May Lead You To Reconsider Complaining

There are a lot of factors that make a coaching changes something likely to set back the football program several more years.

UNT Needs a Big Name Recruiter To Outweigh All of the Other Issues at the School

The last coach was fired because his recruiting classes had fallen off a cliff.

Like him or not, most would agree Dodge is flat out a very good to great recruiter, especially in this area of the country. The fact this team had the worst defensive unit and special teams unit in the country last season on it's way to being the second worst team in FBS last year should have killed recruiting this season. That team was totally non-competitive.

In spite of that, Dodge brought in very promising players like Shavod Atkinson, Kelvin Jackson, Jamaal Jackson, Michael Outlaw, Kyle White, Hilbert Jackson, Tyler Statford, KC Obi, LaChris Anyiam, Daniel Prior, John Webber, Will Atterberry, and DeWayne Baziel.

Off the 2008 season, there is no way UNT should have been able to pull that kind of talent. That may be the best class UNT has had since the big class that ran off the titles in the early years.

And it isn't like UNT has recruited poorly over the other years of the Dodge run either, in spite of the record, the lack of stadium, the lack of TV exposure, and the lousy athletic budget. His classes have generally had a lot more talent than the classes of previous UNT coaches.

Maybe most importantly, Dodge and his staff have clearly gotten a lot better at targeting the right guys lately. They find guys who show the ability to play at the FBS level at some time in their UNT career and who UNT has a legit shot at landing.

The Riley Dodge Factor

If you run off Todd Dodge, you lose Riley Dodge.

I know a ton of fans would think that is perfectly acceptable considering the fragile flower Riley Dodge is today, but consider the fact that the younger Dodge added 10 lbs of muscle in the last year. If he can come close to that over the next two offseasons, he is going to be a much stronger and more durable player.

His mechanics and decision making vs. FBS speed will only improve. By next season he may have sufficient arm strength and timing to hit the deep ball.

In this system, by his senior year he may be a more mobile version of Ty Detemer. UNT has NEVER had that kind of player.

He could be the kind of player who gets UNT into a BCS bowl.

This Team Is Close to Breaking Through

The Mean Green aren't playing consistently well in a number of areas, but they are still about three plays away from being 4-2.

I'd argue even the Middle Tennessee game was there for them if they had stopped the Blue Raiders on that drive at the start of the fourth quarter. With a couple of breaks they could be 5-1 this year, even though they really haven't come close to playing their best full game yet.

If this team puts it together on both sides of the line for four quarters, they can hang with anyone in this conference.

This team is in the game every week. They just haven't learned to close yet.

That really has very little to do with coaching.

Learning to close games is a process that every team that doesn't have a senior dominated starting lineup has to go through. This Mean Green team is getting there.

You can see the progress. In past years, this team didn't think it belonged on the field with teams like Florida Atlantic; now they know they do.

This team has lost two fourth quarter dogfights in a row.

The FAU game is the first game since the Ball State game where UNT competed in the fourth quarter. If this is the start of a run of strong fourth quarters, this team will win this year.

Keeping Dodge vs. Starting Another Four-Year Rebuilding Program

Finally, one of the biggest issues is if you fire Dodge, you start over. That is almost always the case with a coaching change at a losing school.

New coaches force starters from the old regime to earn their playing time. A lot of players don't like that and quit or de-prioritize football.

Some good players will leave.

Players who have bought into the current offensive and defensive schemes may not buy into the new coach's schemes.

Underclassmen and committed recruits with talent who were recruited specifically for these schemes will likely bail for greener pastures. Are you prepared for the possibility of losing guys like Darius Carey, Lance Dunbar, Jeremy Mathis, Royce Hill, Riley Dodge, and others because the new coach wants to build with his guys?

Are you prepared to restart the clock on another four-year rebuilding plan?

The Pay Sucks, the Conference Sucks, the Job Sucks

UNT pays Dodge $265,000 a year to coach the worst team in the worst FBS conference in America.

Like all Sunbelt teams, the team is rarely on TV, hurting recruiting.

Like all Sunbelt teams, the travel costs are ridiculous, forcing member schools to play body bag games against the elites of the SEC to cover budgetary shortfalls. Injuries sustained and "emotional trauma" suffered in those games usually take 2-3 games to recover.

UNT fans don't have any emotional ties to the teams of the Sunbelt, stunting attendance at home games and bleeding potential operating revenue out of the program.

The team won't have it's new stadium until 2011, so if UNT were to fire Dodge and hire a new coach for next season, the new coach would have at least a year of dealing with the same recruiting kick in the balls Dodge has dealt with for his entire run.

The athletic budget is small and (looking at the history of the program) the alumni that graduate from this music school are largely disinterested in making regular or sizeable financial contributions to the football programs.

Fans and alumni may complain a lot, but even with 12,000+ students regularly in the stadium on game day the team rarely tops 22,000 in attendance—even though the majority of the school's 600,000-700,000+ alumni live in the Metroplex. The alumni have high expectations, but they really don't do much to help the university compete.

Really if we are honest about it, the students do just about everything that helps UNT compete.

Fifteen years from now, when the new stadium is built and the per student athletic fee has risen to something near the state maximum of $20 per class hour (bringing the athletic budget up to the levels of the top schools of the MWC), this will be a great job. At that point UNT will be targeted by the western Conference USA schools as a team they need in conference.

At that point the university will have great in-conference draws to a stadium that is designed to promote attendance. 28-30K a game may be likely then.

Today, with neither the stadium nor the large athletic budget in place, this is a lousy job.

That is just a reality UNT fans need to accept.

No Other Name Coaches Want This Job

Who is the name coach for UNT who will be able to recruit at the level Dodge has vs. tough competition for recruits from TCU's Gary Patterson and SMU's June Jones? Who do fans think will come here?

A name thrown around by Mean Green fans as an alternative to Dodge is Turner Gill. Gill is reportedly one of the highest paid coaches in the MAC now. Do you really think Gill would take a pay cut to take this job at $265K a year? Presently that is what UNT can offer.

Gill is on the radar of every athletic director in the Big 12 and all of the AD's in the western part of C-USA. All of those jobs pay a ton better and offer easier recruiting.

Why jump into the fire at UNT when he can sit patiently and be the next coach at Iowa State or Colorado?

There Are Better Arguments To Retain Dodge Than To Replace Him

Dodge is the best coach, the biggest name, and the best recruiter the university can afford today.

The team's increased competitiveness suggests Dodge has the program pointed in the right direction. The starting lineup is loaded with juniors and sophomores and is in every game vs. non-BCS schools, which suggest next season should be a great season for the team if we don't change coaches.

If he wanted to, Dodge could probably be an offensive coordinator at a Big 12 school making more money than he makes at UNT as the head coach. He was considered and possibly offered other FBS head coaching jobs (the news reports are fuzzy there) that paid more.

It seems very probable that UNT's former offensive coach cut the school a discount and took the job when the university's football program was at an all-time low point in talent with little chance to recover, simply to help out his friends in the administration at UNT.

He has out-recruited a bad situation and rebuilt the talent level that matter so much in college.

He was the face of the potential of the program that helped in landing the new stadium.

He has been loyal to the university. He has shut his mouth and worked even though the stadium he was promised by the University President and the Athletic Director to help him recruit won't be up until 2011. It was supposed to be here three years earlier.

Even though the job is a tough one, he may be the only name coach who wants to be here now—while it is a crappy job.

Let's Not Meddle

As fans of pro football, we hate Jerry Jones for his constant meddling that undercuts the coach and the team. Why are we doing the same to UNT?

Some alumni and fans have an axe to grind with the AD over the dismissal of the last coach and as such have had it in for Dodge. Some think Dodge is arrogant. Some just hate losing.

Regardless of the camp you are in, it is time to step back and make sure you are viewing things in perspective.

It is time to swallow bruised alumni pride and park our egos as fans at the door.

Logic suggests that Dodge gives this program the best chance to succeed over the next 18 months. If he can't win next year with a full assembly of his talent, a more physically mature and experienced Riley Dodge, then sure, fire him.

Kick off the new stadium in 2011 with a new coach. (After all, the coach UNT would be able to hire in 2011 with a stadium in hand would be a lot better caliber than the guys the university could chose from in 2010 without a stadium.)

Start over with a new coach when the new coach won't be compromised in his first year.

I personally think we owe it to Dodge to keep him around at least until next season, and if the team does well, beyond that due to his loyalty to UNT. Regardless of whether you agree with that, don't we owe it to the players to let them have their best shot to win? Especially this group that has been through so much losing; bearing the banner of the university we love.

Universities are always for the students first. The alumni have had their day. Fans can cheer, but we just get to share in the joy of the university's success.

Fans and alumni meddling won't make things better, so there is no good reason to meddle at this point.

Lost in the fury of UNT fans over a now 14 game conference losing streak is the fact that UNT DID show improvement in a lot of areas in this week's loss to Howard Schnellenberger's Florida Atlantic Owls.

Todd Dodge and his offensive coaching staff has played a lot of lip service to taking what the defense gives, but has done the same things all season long—plenty of dinks to Jamaal Jackson and Michael Outlaw, with the occasional running play mixed in.

This week, they clearly saw the opportunity to run on FAU and produced a totally unique and effective ground based gameplan.  Frankly, as a Mean Green fan, I was glad to see a pronounced, distinct gameplan tailored specifically for an opponent.

And it worked.  In the first series, UNT ran seven times and passed twice and went right down the field for a TD.  The defense forced a three and out by the Owls and UNT's offense did it again, this time running nine out of 11 times and scoring a second TD to take a 13-0 lead.

Then things fell apart.

As has been the habit of the team throughout the season, the Mean Green lack a killer instinct.  Any lead of over 10 points triggers a noticeable loss of focus on defense.

FAU put together a bazillion play drive from their 12 yard line to cut the score to 13-7.

UNT offense led by Riley Dodge to it's credit was able to do what good offensives do and quickly answer the score taking only 1 play to get Jamaal Jackson loose on a 69 yard TD pass.  (The extra point was blocked.)

Hammering away at FAU on the ground loosened up coverage on the receivers setting up the big play in the passing game.  It isn't something that has been seen by Mean Green fans all year as the coaching staff has favored the dink pass over all else. 

All the credit in the world is owed to the UNT offensive staff for recognizing an opportunity to rectify that and coming up with a great offensive game plan.

Sadly, the Mean Green defense continued to wilt.

An unsportsman-like conduct call gave the Owls a short field and it only took Howard Schellenberger's team 3 minutes and 4 seconds to drive from their 45 to the end zone to bring the game to 19-14.

The Mean Green drove to the FAU 44 after the kickoff, but Riley Dodge was sacked on a third and long and forced out of the game.  UNT was forced to punt. 

Following a touchback, the Owls took only two minutes and 59 seconds to drive 80 yards for another TD to take their first lead of the game 21-19.

Starting safety Ira Smith fumbled the ensuing kickoff at the Mean Green 41.  FAU QB Rusty Smith took only two plays and 44 seconds to score another TD putting the Owls up 27-19. (The extra point was blocked.)

UNT started their next series at the Mean Green 39.  Strong armed backup QB Nathan Tune hit electric freshman receiving sensation Darius Carey twice to get the team to a first down at the FAU 48.

Then UNT fumbled the ball over to FAU.

FAU added another FG to take a 30-19 lead into halftime.

The second quarter was a mirror image of UNT's second quarter collapse in the Middle Tennessee game and left every UNT fan at the stadium and following on line sick to their stomachs.

The team bounces back in the second half

Things looked bleak coming out of halftime.

FAU continued their strong play for the first drive of the second half, taking the ball nine plays in three minutes and 59 seconds for another TD and a 37-19 lead.  Starting CB Royce hill fumbled the football on the return, but little used senior TE Bryant Siedle prevented a total collapse by recovering the ball at the UNT 43 yard line.

Down by 18, UNT's offensive staff was forced to abandon the "run and run some more" game plan. 

Backup QB Tune was up to the task driving the team the length of the field and hitting "Mr. Electricity" Darius Carey for a 19 yard TD to get the team within 11, 37-26.

At this point there seemed a noticeable change in focus for UNT.  The Mean Green played like they believed they could play with FAU and more—that they should be beating them! 

An inspired UNT Defense forced a rare (for this game) three and out giving the ball back to UNT at the 29 yard line.

RB Lance Dunbar, who in two weeks has emerged from his previous stature as a forgettable change of pace back into the most dangerous offensive weapon on the team, took only three running plays to take the team 71 yards for another Mean Green TD to cut the FAU lead to 37-33.

The game was on again.

UNT's defense forced another three and out and Tune, Dunbar and the UNT offense got the ball back at their own 11.  They drove it to the UNT 41 before the Owls' defense forced a punt for a touchback.

In the fourth quarter, Owl RB Alfred Morris powered the Owls down the field until the Mean green defense came up big, stopping Owl QB Rusty Smith three straight times, including a fourth down play. 

This was one of the few stops of an opponent's momentum by UNT's defense in the fourth quarter all season and was the one of the few times this season that UNT stopped an opponent on a fourth down without drawing a flag.

UNT's offense and offensive coaching staff responded, feeding off the defensive success.  It is usually a good idea to immediately attack an opponent aggressively after a big stop and UNT's staff has shown repeatedly over this season that they believe in that philosophy. 

Tune hit WR Michael Outlaw for 46 yards and Lance Dunbar ran it nine yards for the go ahead TD to go up 40-37.

FAU got the ball back at their 28 following the kickoff, but UNT's defense smelled blood and shut down Morris and Smith, forcing a three and out.  On fourth down, FAU's punter Mickey Groody had a horrific six-yard punt that mirrored UNT's Will Atterrbury's infamous last punt last week.

Taking over at the FAU 36 with major momentum on UNT's side and being at home, the Mean Green should have been able to score at least a FG and probably a TD.  FAU had not shown any ability to control Lance Dunbar.  There was nothing there to suggest that the Owls could stop Dunbar from gaining the 10 yards in three plays.

At the end of the game vs. Ball State, Todd Dodge showed he understood how to properly ground out a win in the fourth quarter.  In this game, perhaps due to fact there was still 10 minutes left, Dodge didn't do everything he could to put the ball into his running back's hands.

Tune ran for five yards on first down and then was thrown for a five yard loss on second down.  On third down, Tune hit Jamaal Jackson for seven yards to get to the 29. 

With a 4th-and-3 at the 29, Dodge and his staff decided to go for it.  Tune's pass fell incomplete and the Owls took over after a big momentum changing stop.

It was a gutsy call and a very debatable one. If UNT had completed the pass they might have scored a TD.  With a 10-point lead and all the momentum, they probably would have won the game.  A win here might very well have changed the trajectory of the season.

On the flip side, kicking the FG would have only put UNT up by six, but it would have not resulted in nearly as big of a swing in momentum as getting stopped without points.  UNT still would have stopped FAU on the last four drives and would have scored on FAU on four of the last five drives.

Ignoring hindsight, considering the emotional volatility and inexperience of this UNT team, it probably made more sense to kick the FG.  Even if FAU scored a TD all UNT would need to do is use the last four minutes or so to get into FG range—but Dodge's choice was understandable. 

He wanted to show his team that he had confidence in them and and to really back them up.  He wanted to make the swaggering call that would give the team confidence for the stretch run, not to make the safe pick that might result in a one-point loss.

He risked taking it on the chin to help his players over the hump.  That in itself is very respectable and very defendable.

If the hope is that Dodge becomes a winning coach, most fans would hope he would be an aggressive good coach like Jimmy Johnson or Mike Leach rather than a good coach who plays it safe, like Marty Schottenheimer or Wade Phillips.

Clearly this decision does show he has a lot more Leach in him than Phillips.  That is at least something.

Sadly for UNT fans, the attempt failed. FAU's stop lead to a major swing in momentum was all Rusty Smith and FAU needed.  They took the ball right down field and scored a TD to take a 44-40 lead.

UNT had another shot to win the game, but after the emotional kick in the crotch of the FAU TD, Tune, Dunbar and the rest of the offense could not get it together to go the length of the field to score a TD.

Schnellenberger won again and UNT fans were once more left to dream of next season.

North Texas played tough enough on the road for three quarters to win vs. UL Lafayette's Ragin' Cajuns, but unfortunately for Mean Green fans, they could not overcome early mistakes, and once more lost the fourth quarter as the team returned to dead least in the conference.

Redshirt freshmen Riley Dodge showed his inexperience throwing an interception that was returned for a TD, and a second one that lead to a field goal. The Mean Green also allowed a blocked punt for a touchdown as they spotted the Ragin' Cajuns 17 first half points.

UNT hung tough behind Dodge in the first half, playing to a 24-24 tie at the half. UNT continued their tough play on both sides of the ball, and eliminated the mistakes in the third quarter to take a 10 point lead, but the inexperienced Mean Green could not hold on to the lead, and were again outplayed in the fourth quarter.

Mid-season overview

UNT has flashed a lot on both sides of the ball. If the Alabama game is eliminated from the team's stats, UNT has scored 28.4 points per game, and allowed 29 points per game vs. non-BCS FBS opponents of varying talent levels. The team plays similar caliber teams in the season's second half, so the team should be competitive.

Offensive inconsistency

Coach Todd Dodge has a well conceived spread offense.  Regardless of personnel, UNT under Dodge has moved the ball between the 20's and scored at a pretty good clip.

Still this year was supposed to be a bit of a breakout year with an experienced proven OL and quality talent and depth all recruited for this offense. QB Riley Dodge, the most highly decorated recruit in UNT's recent memory was supposed to use his familiarity with the scheme to transform this offense into a juggernaut.

Well, that just hasn't occurred.

The coaching staff went with a lighter more athletic offensive line to protect the still undersized and fragile Riley Dodge.

It was a very defensible decision, but the results suggest it has hurt the team in those short yardage situations that are so necessary to win games.  The coaching staff (and I think the players) lack confidence in their ability to consistently pick up short yardage by running up the middle.  They lack the swagger of top offenses.

Todd Dodge may very well need to consider developing a rotation of personnel designed specifically to give the team the best shot in situations where they need less than 3 yards. They have the depth and are not likely to run slow developing passing plays on 3rd and shorts and 4th and shorts, so why not? 

Good coaching staffs put their teams in situations where they have a better chance to succeed.  Dodge and his staff have improved a lot in that regard this season, but this is an area where more improvement is possible with help from the staff.

Riley Dodge has struggled at times with the speed of the game (regardless of his father's claims to the contrary) and the weaknesses of the scheme (one of the disadvantages of the Dodge scheme vs. a run and shoot is the fact that it is easier to read a QB and jump the passes because the QB and receiver are not reading and reacting to the DB).

In high school where your opponents are a step slower, you can throw a rainbow deep and not worry about the safety having the speed to make a play on the ball (as happened vs. Ohio).  In High School you can get away with telegraphing your passes, but at the FBS level those passes are at risk (as happened vs. Ohio and ULL.)

It is entirely possible that if Todd Dodge is around for Riley Dodge's senior year, Riley may become the mobile version of Ty Detemer that many feel he has the potential to become.

This year, he is still just a promising underclassman starting his first year as a QB at the FBS level.  In many ways UNT's struggles are no different from the struggles teams like ULL have with their new QBs.

Riley Dodge and the offense have given up turnovers that have turned games. 

The Middle Tennessee game was a close game until Riley Dodge threw an interception that was returned to the six yard line, that tipped off 17 straight MTSU points.

The Ohio game partially turned on a Nathan Tune interception that was returned for a TD.

The ULL game would likely have been a UNT win, if not for Dodge's two interceptions early.

Probably the best way to look at the issue of interceptions is that more precision is needed from Riley Dodge and his receivers to prevent interceptions.

Defensive Lack of Consistent Focus and Intensity

The offense is not solely to blame. When these backbreaking turnovers occur, UNT's defense responds like the inexperienced unit it is. They don't generally elevate their individual games in those situations, and stuff the opposition to reclaim momentum, they allow their emotions to rule them and yield TDs.

Without question one can look at UNT's Defense and see major improvement, but there simply has not been enough improvement to overcome the problems the offense is having transitioning to Riley Dodge, and all the new personnel.  UNT boasts one of the most talented back 7's in the conference and has a lot of quality defensive linemen.  They are lead by one of the best defensive coordinators in the conference.

This is a unit that should not be yielding almost 30 points a game to non-BCS opponents.  It is far too talented for that.

Players like alleged shut down sophomore CB Royce Hill, former all-conference junior LB Craig Robertson, senior DE turned DT Eddrick Gilmore, last year's leading tackler senior S turned LB Kylie Hill, junior DE Sam Owusu-Hemeng, and former JUCO DTs Shavod Atkinson, and Kelvin Jackson need to start regularly making game changing plays.  Waiting for the emotional volcano that is senior MLB Tobe Nwigwe to make the big play is simply not good enough.

These guys have been in place long enough to know what they need to do. Watch the films and start making some plays already.

Fourth Quarter Nightmares

For the season, UNT has outscored their opponents in the fourth quarter only once, in their only win of the season vs. Ball State, 10-7. 

Versus Ohio, the Mean Green lost the fourth quarter 3-7.

In the throwaway game vs. Alabama, UNT lost the fourth quarter 0-9.

Versus Middle Tennessee, UNT lost the fourth quarter 0-7.

Versus ULL the final period went to the Ragin' Cajuns 0-14.

In the last four games, UNT hasn't scored a TD in the fourth quarter, and has yielded at least seven points. It appears the team is confident that they have the ability to compete in each game, but the team lacks the leadership from upperclassmen, and key performers, to suck it up, and make plays at the end of games.

Howard Schnellenberger Comes to Town.

Schenellenberger has owned UNT. Only the fact that FAU has played so badly this year makes this game winnable for UNT.

UNT has a shot to turn around recent history vs. FAU, and turn around the Mean Green's season this week, but they have to believe they can win. This was probably a game in which the Mean Green assumed they would not be able to compete prior to the season. 

What UNT believes will determine the outcome of this game. If that pre-season belief remains, UNT will lose this game.

It seems likely this game could turn around one of these team's fortunes.

The bye week has come and gone for the UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns and the North Texas Mean Green, restoring both teams to near full strength and now the fans of both teams are chomping at the bit for the coin-flip.

ULL

ULL has a decent offense, but their ability to score is questionable.  ULL lacks the playmakers of a team like MTSU to whom UNT yielded 37 points. 

(One can make the argument the game was played in Denton, but I'd argue that UNT played their worst quarter of the season vs. MTSU giving away 20 points in a quarter while being totally incompetent on offense, so at worst it is a wash.)

ULL has a good veteran OL, a solid senior RB, and a promising QB, but the receiving corps is not reliable or explosive as MTSU's.  That will hurt vs. UNT's strong pass coverage which is allowing a conference low 54 percent completion rate despite a weak pass rush.

While I think the top notch competition ULL has faced paints a misleading picture of the competence of the Cajun offense, I have a hard time seeing ULL's offense scoring more than 28-31 points at the high end—with a UNT gift TD.

UNT's defense generally plays well for three quarters of the game.  There is usually a quarter where they give up 80 yard drives and generally look like last year's team.

For the rest of the game UNT's defense plays very well.  They are very focused on three and outs as evidenced by the fact that they are first in the sunbelt in stopping opponents on third down, allowing successful conversions only 34 percent of the time.

ULL for their part is the conference's best at converting third downs, completing just under 43 percent of their plays.

It is highly probable that UNT will force a number of ULL punts.  It is also very likely they will allow ULL to run run the length of the field and run off two to three TDs at some point in the game.

UNT's week off

UNT spent their off week working on a number of trouble areas, the most relevant to this game being their ability to convert short yardage and long passing plays.

UNT has the talent to move people out in short yardage situations, but has opted to go with a lighter more athletic OL to better protect the brittle Riley Dodge.  I think for UNT to convert short yardage situations they will need to platoon in bigger stronger linemen in for those situations.

I don't think Coach Todd Dodge has arrived at that conclusion yet, so I doubt that happens in this game.  If short yardage plays amount to UNT's starting line trying to go outside vs. ULL's DL and their great linebackers, I think UNT may struggle in that regard.  And I cannot see UNT's starting OL opening holes up the middle vs. ULL's front seven.

Now, the deep passing may be a factor.  If UNT has made an effort to get more than Micheal Outlaw involved in deep passing attempts and the coaching staff has ironed out Riley Dodge's slow release on those plays, UNT might have a shot to complete a few 20-30 yard passes against a young and fairly ordinary ULL secondary.

Ultimately I think the game boils down to whether ULL is able to tackle well enough to control big plays.  Todd Dodge's offense is a very low risk offense that generally doesn't attack downfield too often.  Like the west coast offense, the Dodge offense throws to receivers short and hopes the receivers can evade the first tackler and go on a big run.

ULL has allowed opponents to complete an astounding 62.9 percent of their passes.  UNT QB Riley Dodge has completed 65.4 percent of his passes in the UNT dinkathon offense.

UNT's offense has averaged 38 passes a game.  As ULL has allowed such a high completion percentage and has no pass rush, it would be very in character for Dodge to throw the ball even more this week.  If UNT throws 45 passes and completes a conservative 65 percent, ULL will need to not blow 29 tackles in their secondary.

For a team that misses tackles like ULL, this will be a tough test.

IF ULL tackles well

If ULL tackles well, the mean green will not break more than one to two big plays and the odds of UNT scoring TDs drops dramatically, greatly increasing the chance of ULL being able to score enough points to win.

Compounding the ULL pass defense issue, ULL has also allowed opponents to convert 47 percent of third-down plays.  Now certainly the level of competition they have faced has swelled this number.  Their run defense is better than the stats suggest.  They have simply been facing bigger stronger lines..

This stat still has big ramifications.

While UNT may be fairly low in their third down completion rate at 30 percent, it should be noted that UNT has only had 17 third down conversions (third fewest in the Sunbelt), in spite having 78 first downs (middle of the pack).  UNT doesn't get into a lot of third down situations.

UNT should be able to move into FG range repeatedly.

On the flipside, if UNT throws that much, ULL should also be able to pick off Riley Dodge a couple of times.

If ULL can do that and hold UNT to one TD and say six field goals—25 points or less, ULL has a great shot to win.

IF ULL misses some tackles allowing big plays

UNT is very likely to have a number of FGs in this game.

If UNT's big play guys, RBs Cam Montgomery and Lance Dunbar and WRs Darius Carey, BJ Lewis, and Jamaal Jackson get by some tacklers for breakaway TDs or escape coverage for a long TD pass, UNT's point total would likely exceed what the Ragin' Cajuns offense can generate vs. UNT's defense.

As much as I'd like to see the latter, I think ULL is the more mature and focused team with the coaching staff more focused on winning now at this point. 

ULL 28, UNT 22

The North Texas Mean Green has the week off to get healthy, work on problem areas, and prepare for a tough road game against UL-Lafayette.  I have come up with a list of things I'd like to see the Mean Green work on.

1) More use of game day production as the criteria in determining WR receiving opportunities in games

In the first two games UNT rightly based their passing efforts based off what the coaches saw in practice.  JUCO receivers Jamaal Jackson and Michael Outlaw were recruited to play immediately and both played well in practice.  Freshman Darius Carey flashed a lot and was given a few opportunites to prove he belonged in games.

It made sense to make either Jackson or Outlaw the primary receiving options on most plays.

Now you have 4 games of footage to see what you have.

It seems quite clear that Carey and Jackson are your two best receivers and last game the finally healthy BJ Lewis made a strong claim with his play that the team has 3 good starting caliber recievers.

Micheal Outlaw does not appear to be a player of that level yet.  He has the talent, but he seems very raw.  He doesn't run good routes.  He doesn't sell his cuts. He frequently overextends for balls and mistimes his jumps, making the easy catch into a hard one.  He has to be leading this team in drops by a good margin.

On top of that his two TD drops vs. Ohio appear to have gotten in his head.  Vs. MTSU the last UNT interception was a deep pass to Outlaw.  Outlaw ran a bad route, realized he hadn't shaken his man and he appeared to quit on the route in frustration.  A MTSU defensive back hustled accross the field and dove to make the goal line INT.

If Outlaw had run a strong route and not given up on the pass it is entirely possible he might have at least broken up that play if not caught the touchdown.

I am certainly not saying the team should not give the guy a chance to play his way out of his crises of confidence, but I am saying there may be receivers more deserving of playing in that 4th starting role at this point of the season where the games are very winnable and there is a real need to win some games now.

Alex Lott is the leading receiver returning from last year's squad.  He had a pretty good game a couple weeks ago and is a very sound and solid starting caliber slot receiver, but has pretty obvious maturity problems on the field. 

He wants to taunt his opponent after every catch.  He is an unsportmanlike conduct penalty waiting to happen.  If he can get his head straight he would be a very good addition to the starting lineup.  If he can't, he should stay in his current role.

I personally am rooting for Senior Kevin Dickerson to get more PT.  He clearly knows how to play the position.  His catches last week were textbook plays and he seems to not have the nonsensical baggage that Lott carries on to the field.  He doesn't have great speed, but he is a very functional receiver who runs good routes and has soft, reliable hands.

As the season progresses, I'd like to see less of Freshman WR Forrest Rucker in relief and more of Junior Breece Johnson.  Johnson flashed a little in practice over the off-season (possibly putting himself in line for an opportunity with this coaching staff) and was just a monster in high school.  Check out his 2006 high school stat line:

2006  88 receptions 1343 yards 15.2 yards per catch 19 TDs

That was at a 5A school (top level of competition in Texas).

He has by FAR the best high school resume of any of UNT's receivers.  I would like to see the UNT staff give him a series or two as a primary receiving option in the next few games and see how responds --- ala BJ Lewis vs. MTSU. 

If the team can tap the talent Johnson showed in High school the Mean green would have a good starting foursome with good depth and team's receiveing woes would likely be over.

2) Harshly critique the play of members of the defensive Line

There is no doubt that the defensive line is vastly improved over last season, but at various times the defensive line has sprung major leaks vs. the run.   I thought maybe it was a focus issue, but honestly it looks like those instances may have been more due to personnel substitution issues.

I have seen 3 of the four UNT games (I opted out on the Alabama game) and have opinions on what may need to occur, but they are based off what I have seen without the advantage of game film featuring the line exclusively as the coaches possess.

The films of these run defense breakdowns need to be thoroughly studied. Hopefully the coaches will see a need to do a play by play evaluation of the lineups. 

The impressions I have are that the team is quite good at stuffing the run when both the big JUCO DTs (Kelvin Jackson and Shavod Atkinson) are in, but is much less successful at it when either is out. 

Atkinson and Jackson seem to keep the line of scrimage straight when they play together.  When they are both in the interior of of the line is mostly even, creating running lanes that tend to go more outside, allowing the defensive ends more opportunity to escape their blockers and recover.

When they are paired with another DT, that DT tends to get sealed and lose a yard or two.  The running lanes are wider and the defensive ends cannot recover.

It appears that opponents get a little more movement on the team's other DTs and in combination with the undersized DEs that creates signifigant gaps to run through.

That does not mean that I am suggesting players like backup DT Jesse DeSoto should not play.  Quite the contrary.  Atkinson and Jackson are guys probably carrying about 5 lbs too much weight each and they do need breaks. 

What I am suggesting is that it might make a lot of sense to pair an undersized defensive tackle with a larger defensive end when a player like Desoto goes in.

It also might make sense to sit both Jackson and Atkinson at the same time.  Keeping one in tends to create more pronounced gaps.  It is certainly counterintuitive, but playing two defensive tackles who might both lose a yard or even two would keep the line more level and possibly open fewer running lanes.

If the backups were paired with two oversized ends who could better hold their position and slide to close the running lanes, that usage could be solid.

(Obviously, that logic could be dead wrong.  If the backup DTs give up more yards than that or end up getting blown backwards into our linebackers like last year, that won't work. )

Additionally, I think the law of diminishing returns is occuring with regards to the team's defensive ends.  Akpunku and Owusu-Hemeng are both good pass rushers, but appear to be getting a bit worn down trying to hold their position vs. the run for most of the snaps.

They are not as crisp off the ball or as fast in closing in passing downs as they should be and that ultimately is hurting our defensive backs by making them hold their coverage too long.

As much as the coaching staff likes the competitiveness both players have shown, it might be time to start protecting them a bit more.  I am advocating keeping them fresh for passing downs by making both situational pass rushers.

On first and second downs I think this team can live with slightly lesser pass rushers who squeeze the pocket as long as the pass rush can be cranked up a notch with fresher and faster DEs on 3rd and long.

285 lb Redshirt Freshman Tevinn Cantly played a bit last week at defensive end. The return of 270 lb JUCO transfer DE John Weber from injury will help a bit, but I think it might be time to look at moving a player from DT to DE to eat some plays. 

There are two square pegs at DT that the coaching staff are trying to hammer into round holes.

The obvious choice is to move 265 lb Senior Eddrick Gilmore back to DE.  He has been a non-factor at defensive tackle and was a solid player and the team's leading sacker at defensive end last season. 

He was the team's best defensive lineman last year. Arguably, he was a better player at DE last year than either of our starting DE's are this year.  He was able to stop the run, hold his position, and rush the passer.

Thus far his senior year has being wasted by this coaching staff.   That is not what they should want this junior class to see.

Junior DT Draylen Ross is another possibility.  He seems to be the teams 3rd tackle, but he also seems to be the guy who is in when the opponents gouge us vs. the run.  He is a great looking athlete, but I question whether he is physically built to play DT.

At 6'4" 292 he is built like a tall muscular DE.  I think he is being misused at DT.  He seems to constantly lose leverage and yardage vs. shorter interior offensive linemen, creating gaps and angles in the running game.

Ross was a pretty good defensive end in high school, recording 6 sacks one year.  He may need to move back to that position to get production to his level of talent out of him.

There was talk that 309 lb freshman DT Kyle White's redshirt status was burned as the team was forced to play him vs. Alabama.  If that is the case, he and Desoto should take the plays that would be freed up in the DT rotation.

3) Work on professionalism and sportsmanship

"Sportsmanship"? Really?  Yes, really. It is a problem.

This team is too inexperienced to endure unsportsmanlike conduct penalties.

This team cannot afford any more meltdowns like they had in the fourth quarter vs. MTSU.

Senior MLB Tobe Nwigwe has to realize that he is the heart of this defense.  If he looses his cool, the defense will collapse, just like it did vs. MTSU.  He is the leader of the defense and has to start understanding what that means they need from him emotionally.

Guys like WR Lott also need to outgrow the taunting.

4) Work on the deep pass

This team need to stretch the defense downfield a bit more.

Riley Dodge at this point in his career has a rag arm.   If this team is going to throw deep, they need to really sell their routes and Dodge has got to get the ball away quicker.

He is holding the ball too long on his deep rainbows. With as much hang time as they have, every deep pass looks to be an interception risk.  He has to get those off quicker to avoid the safety help.

Additionally the team has almost exclusively thrown deep to Michael Outlaw. With guys like WRs Carey (4.5 speed), Jackson (4.4), and Lewis (umm...fast.) they really should work on throwing deep to other, faster, more developed route runners.

5) Work on short yardage situations

The failed 4th and one attempt vs. MTSU underscored a recurring problem for the Dodge offense --- converting on very short yardage situations.

This team has the talent to score 40 a game, but won't acheive it as long as it believes it cannot convert short yardage plays.  To become a top offense you have to have a swagger that comes from a belief that you cannot be stopped.

On the fouth down play in question, Riley Dodge took the snap from under the center, but rather than running a QB sneak or handing the ball off to a running back barrelling straight ahead, the team rolled Dodge out on a bootleg and he was stuffed for no gain.

For a UNT fan that play brought back up a number of thoughts. Head Coach Todd Dodge has been reluctant to have any plays run from under the center and appeared to only added the formation to his play book this year due to intense pressure from the fans (although the players, the other coaches, and the AD may have also had roles in that decision).

Does Coach Dodge have any confidence in using the obvious plays from this set?  There is not much use for the set if you are unable to use it effectively --- making defenses have to defend the dives and QB sneaks.

Did they consider it too dangerous to have Riley Dodge run a QB sneak and dive into the pile? Did they have no confidence in the OL in generating the gap needed for the QB?

Did the coaching staff doubt that the inerior of UNT's line could open the gap to gain 1 yard? Did they doubt UNT's running backs could convert?

All of these are troubling thoughts that play puts into the heads of not only the fans, but also the offensive players when the coaching staff decides not to power your way straight ahead to a first down.

JJ Johnson is beloved for his heady play at center, but he is a sophomore who took over the job as an injury replacement for Kelvin Drake as a freshman last year.  It is possible that the coaching staff considers him not strong enough to create that gap.

Drake on the other hand is a Junior and was a three year letter winner on his high school power lifting team --- odds are he is strong enough to create a gap if Johnson is not.

Senior guard Gabe Hollivay is massive at 328 lbs and he held on to his starting job until the final week of the pre-season when Drake diplaced him.  He's obviously pretty good too and it never hurts to have more size on the field in short yardage situations.

HB Cam Montgomery or Micah Mosley have the size and strength to break tackles if the coaching staff decided on a dive over a sneak. 

Montgomery is a tall upright runner who fights for every yard, but as that is his running style, he will occasionally fumble.

Mosley is the better body for this kind of use, but needs reps in practice and games if he is going to regain the confidence to return to his high school form (2006: 297 rushes 2,403 yards 29 touchdowns).  He runs tenatively now tiptoeing around his linemen instead attacking the line with a head of steam and barrelling over opponents and, if needed, blockers alike.

Even if the team needs to substitute personnel, they should feel confident in their ability to power over the opposition for a first down through a QB sneak or a dive.

The QB sneak may not be natural to Riley Dodge.  He may not have run it a lot in his life.  If he is not good at it, let QBs Nathan Tune or Chase Baine run it. 

If you want to run outside perhaps using a converted TE like Ross as a short yardage TE would be helpful, although Bryant Seidle is a well regarded blocker.

Regardless of the plan of attack and the personnel changes they chose to implement -- if any -- this team needs to work on it's short yardage offense and gain confidence in their ability to convert.

Middle Tennessee State proved again why they should be mentioned as one of the early favorites for the Sunbelt title in crushing the North Texas Mean Green 37-21 in Denton.

Strong QB play? Dwight Dasher gashed the UNT defense for rushing first downs regularly throughout the game.  His passing was far less impressive, but he did throw for 269 yards with 2 TDs and no interceptions.

Solid running game? The Blue Raiders rolled up 187 yards on the ground at 4.2 yards per carry.  Dasher only accounted for 75 of those yards.

Great offensive line play? MTSU controlled UNT's pass rush all game and opened up holes regularly in what proved to be the decisive second quarter. UNT's pass rush is largely predicated on giving the opponent's offensive line fits by rotating in and out defensive linemen.  UNT's rotations did not bother MTSU; MTSU's offensive line blocked everyone they faced.

Great Defense?  MTSU played it for much of the game.  They totally made UNT RB Cam Montgomery a non-factor. The MTSU defenders hustled to make plays all game long. Even in the last minute when UNT hoped to score a meaningless TD to build momentum for the next game, a Blue Raider defender, Jeremy Kellem, made a diving interception at the goal line to deny UNT even that.

Solid Special teams? Well... a mixed bag here. UNT CB Royce Hill had a 75-yard kickoff return on the opening kickoff and UNT WR Darius Carey had long punt return for a TD called back on a penalty.  The Blue Raiders did block a FG. The Blue Raider punter David DeFatta had a fairly good game. He shanked one punt off the side of his foot, but for the most part consistently launched high unreturnable punts.  He averaged a very respectable 41 yards per punt for the game.

Maturity in the face of adversity?  Absolutely.  At several points in the game the emotional rollercoaster that is this year's North Texas Mean Green calmed down and focused and were on the verge of making it a game and the Blue Raiders stepped on the throats every time. Each time MTSU had to make a play, they did. That is how championship teams respond.

With all that said, one would think UNT was absolutely destroyed.  Not the case.

What of UNT?

UNT was absolutely wretched in the second quarter and fourth quarter, but looked decent in the first quarter and quite strong in the third when they pulled the game to 30-21.

1st half

For the second week in a row UNT opened the game with a big play on which their offense could not capitalize.  UNT's Hill took the ball 75 yards but went down at the 23. 

The UNT offense had another cold start and could not get a first down.  UNT's kicker Jeremy Knott's FG was blocked on fourth down and UNT came out with no points.

MTSU quickly took it down the field with Dasher connecting with Benjamin Cunningham on a 50 yard TD.

For much of the rest of the first half, UNT seemed in shock and out of sync, almost like they felt they were still playing Alabama.

On UNT's second play after the Blue Raider TD, UNT WR Jamaal Jackson fumbled after a 3 yard reception.  After several incomplete passes by Dasher, the Blue Raiders kicked a FG to go up 10-0.

The teams traded three and outs twice and on the second Blue Raider punt Mean Green WR Carey took the ball downfield for an apparent long return touchdown to cut the play to 10-7.

A flag on the play wiped out the return, but two plays later UNT's elusive backup RB Lance Dunbar took the handoff 66 yards for the TD.

Dasher responded taking the Blue Raiders down the field before the UNT defense responded in the red zone and forced MTSU to kick another FG to go up 13-7.

The next drive for UNT was a carnival of incompetence.  Sophomore Tackle Matt Tomlinson, making his second difficult start in a row in place of the injured Victor Gill vs. a team with top DEs, was flagged as an ineligible receiver downfield wiping out a nice gain.

On first and 15, UNT QB Riley Dodge threw an incompletion.  On 2nd and 15, the offense was in total disarray and the Mean Green had to call a timeout to prevent a delay of game. Once play resumed, Dodge promptly threw an interception that was returned to the 6 yard line.

Three plays later, Dasher ran it in for a TD to put MTSU up 20-7.

The next drive opened with a false start by Tomlinson.  UNT was able to get a first down but was then forced to punt.

The teams traded three-and-out series.  After an excellent UNT punt fell dead at the MTSU 2 yard line, Dasher put together a 98-yard TD drive built off numerous big runs by MTSU runners to go up 27-7. 

UNT's defense looked a lot like last year's incarnation on this drive: incapable of holding the line of scrimmage or very bad at tackling.

UNT took over after the touchdown and Dodge hit Carey for a first down.  Then Tomlinson got hit for an offsides penalty to make it first and 15. Dodge hit two straight passes and then was stopped a yard short on third and one. 

The team called a timeout and decided to go for it on fourth down.  The team decided not to risk Dodge on a QB sneak and rolled him out where he was stuffed for no gain.

Dasher drove the Blue Raiders to the UNT 31 on a lethargic defense before inaccuracy again forced another FG, putting the Blue Raiders up 30-7.

Time ran out on the Mean Green's two-minute offense and that was the score at the half.

With UNT's defense looking absolutely awful and the offense looking little better, flashbacks to last year's team without a defense entered the minds of the fans, and probably a quarter to a third of the 22,000 fans left.

If only they knew what awaited them in the third quarter...

Second half

Following what was almost certainly a severe tongue-lashing from the coaches, UNT emerged from half time with much better intensity on the defensive side of the ball, although the offense still looked very much out of sync.

Both teams faced renewed defenses after the half and opened by trading 3 and outs. In the UNT series, Dodge took a hit and QB Nathan Tune started warming up on the sidelines after the punt. 

UNT's defense again forced MTSU into a three-and-out and after a Blue Raider punt the UNT offense took over at the UNT 38.

A focused Dodge re-entered the game and level of play dramatically improved.  Dodge mixed handoffs to his running backs and passes to B.J. Lewis to drive the team down the field.  Dodge himself ran it up the gut on a delayed run for a 4 yard TD closing the game to 30-14.

The Mean Green defense forced another three-and-out and the Blue Raider punter shanked a 28 yard punt off the side of his foot. UNT WR Carey was caught for a 9 yard loss on the return and then UNT got tagged with a 19-yard penalty for an illegal block.

Dodge ran and passed the team down the field to a first down at the MTSU 11.  Then disaster struck and Dodge fumbled on a six-yard run.

The Blue Raiders were able to get another first down before the UNT defense forced another punt.

Dodge went back to work and quickly drove the team down the feild on a drive capped by Dunbar's second TD run of the day, an 18 yarder, to make the score 30-21.

The teams traded three-and-outs to start the fourth quarter.

With 12:38 to go in the game, MTSU started at the UNT 49.  Bennie Cunningham was stopped after a three-yard gain. Dasher was forced into an incomplete pass on second down.  Facing third and 7, MTSU's Wes Caldwell beat UNT safety Darien Williams, who then compounded his error by missing the tackle, allowing Caldwell to gain 23 yards to the UNT 23-yard line.

UNT got a momentary reprieve when MTSU got hit with a 16-yard unsportmanlike conduct pushing the Blue Raiders back to the UNT 39.  On 1st and 10 UNT's defense sacked Dasher and forced a fumble that MTSU recovered. 

The heart of UNT's defense, emotional MLB Tobe Nwigwe, lost his cool at the most inoppotune time possible drawing a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct flag.  (Or maybe he drew the flag and then pitched the fit. It was hard to say.) Nwigwe was totally out of control and the coaching staff had to call Nwigwe off the field and replace him.

Facing a first-and-10 at the 24 without their defensive leader, a deflated UNT defense allowed an immediate uncontested TD pass to WR Desmond Gee.

This play was particularly disheartening to UNT fans due to the fact that UNT's best cover man Royce Hill was the player roundly beaten on that play.

With the TD, MTSU took a commanding 16 point lead.

Both the UNT offense and defense seemed to lose a lot of steam after that.   The UNT defense did not force any more three-and-outs, and the offense returned to its out of sync ways until the game ended...in spite of MTSU being willing to trade yardage for clock time.

Post game thoughts

It was a game very much worth watching in what it said about both teams.

The Blue Raiders are not a dominant team, but they are a VERY good one.  They play with maturity and don't panic under pressure.  They have the knack for making plays when they have to that all champions have. 

Their defense is a little better than I thought prior to the game.  They keyed heavily on Montgomery and made him a total non-factor in the game.  That was very impressive and unexpected.  

With the exception of their QB, who I still think is a little overrated, their offense is more explosive than I thought as well.

Mostly though, I was impressed with their composure.  This is a mentally tough team.

As for UNT, this year the Mean Green has the talent to beat good teams in the Sunbelt.  This game proves it.  In spite of enduring multiple emotional punches to the gut in the first half, including a blocked FG, a punt return for a TD being wiped out, the defense either losing focus for a quarter off vs. a conference front-runner or the wrong players playing (however one wants to interpret the second quarter), getting stuffed on 4th and 1, two turnovers, AND a 23 point halftime deficit, UNT had the momentum and was very much in this game down 21-30 at the start of the fourth.

That said, this team has to grow up and quickly.  If UNT had the maturity of the Blue Riders they might have won this game and would have won the Ohio game.  A team like the Blue Raiders doesn't win games just on some talent edge;  They win games because they understanding of how not to give wins away.

In this game and in every game this year the defense has lost focus and taken drives and even quarters off.  The offense needs to eliminate the silly mistakes and to execute even when they feel like they may be out of the game.  This team is too talented to wait for a coach to yell at them to play up to their abilities.

UNT may not be the undertalented losers of last year, but they still have a lot of that team's bad habits. They haven't learned how to avoid game losing mistakes and the losses of focus.  They haven't learned how to maintain their composure in tough moments. If the team does not improve in this area, this will cost UNT many more wins this year.

Middle Tenn (-6.5) 28 NORTH TEXAS 26

I'm not really impressive with Middle Tennessee's wins over Memphis and Maryland, as Memphis has been out-gained 4.6 yards per play to 6.2 yppl by a schedule of teams that is about 7 points worse than average while Maryland has been out-gained 5.3 yppl to 6.9 yppl by an average schedule of teams.

The Blue Raiders certainly don't appear good enough to be favored by nearly a touchdown on the road against an improved North Texas team that is decent offensively and likely to get starting quarterback Riley Dodge back from a 1 1/2 game absence. Dodge was a top 10 recruited quarterback out of high school and came to North Texas to play for his Dad, whom he also played for in high school.

Dodge and backup Nathan Tune, who has been perhaps even better so far this season, have both completed 66% of their passes while RB Cam Montgomery has averaged 5.3 ypr. Middle Tennessee is led by dual threat quarterback Dwight Dasher, who had proven so far this season that he can be more than just a good runner.

Dasher has averaged only 5.7 yards per pass play, but he's performed well the last two weeks against weaker pass defenses. These teams both rate at about 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively and Middle Tennessee is only slightly better than North Texas on defense.

The Mean Green do have horrible special teams that have been known to cost them games, but I think this game should be pretty evenly fought and Middle Tennessee applies to a negative 23-68-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week's upset win at Maryland.

I'd consider North Texas a Strong Opinion at +7 or more.

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The world loves Middle Tennessee State University this week.

They have beaten a Conference USA school and an ACC school in their offseason slate and come to Denton to face a team they destroyed, 52-13, last year and, 48-28, the year before.

The University of North Texas is coming off an absolute demolition by No. 4 Alabama, 53-7. UNT didn't have any real catastrophic breakdowns and they still were never in that game.

I am calling the upset.

The Blue Raiders are a very good and sound squad and I fully expect them to challenge for the league title, but they are riding high and, from their perspective, they have owned UNT coach Todd Dodge.

They will probably underestimate North Texas.

UNT, on the flipside, has a lot to prove after the Alabama game. Alabama made them look impotent. A team that enters a season with a better squad and on a mission to prove that they have improved usually bounces back strongly from those kinds of games.

UNT is that kind of team.

The emotional position for each team is right for a possible upset.

Last year's game featured MTSU being essentially spotted 35 points by UNT's awful defensive line. The year prior, UNT hung around. This UNT team is miles better than either of the two squads, while this MTSU team is may only prove qualitatively equal to their past two editions.

And like the closer of the past two matchups, this game is in Denton.  The crowd should be a strong one even though Dentonites doen't really feel much of a rivalry with any Sunbelt opponents beyond maybe UNT's closest competitor Arkansas State.  UNT was primed for a very strong crowd for the home opener vs. Ohio until a 24 hour rainstorm that lasted throughout the double overtime affair skunked attendence.

Don't be suprised if the attendance number is as much as 23,000 this week and if the crowd allows UNT a real home filed advantage.  That would be quite a strong crowd for as lousy of a stadium as Fouts Field.

I don't think the Alabama game have dulled the excitement this team is generating among the Mean Green faithful.  This game will in effect be the home opener for a lot of folks.

Both teams have been well-coached this season. MTSU is by far the more confident and composed team. They have a very good head coach and a good offensive scheme.

UNT's offense is capable of rolling up yards on just about anyone, but is a little less capable in the red zone. Defensive Coordinator Gary DeLoach may be the best in the Sunbelt Conference.

The Blue Raiders are missing senior running back Phillip Tanner. Last year, when UNT was the worst team in the country against the run, Tanner scored five touchdowns against the Mean Green, averaging 11.4 yards per carry.

The runners that replaced Tanner last week, and will again this week, were RB D.D. Kyles (a 190-pound sophomore) and WR Desmond Gee (a 5'8'', 160-pound senior). They are not exactly threats to break arm tackles (the frequency of arm tackling is still a UNT defensive weakness).

MTSU may have to rely on QB Dwight Dasher to generate rushing yardage.

That again plays to UNT's strengths. UNT's defense faces an offense in practice that features repeated runs by the quarterback. This defense is actually fairly good at keeping an eye on running quarterbacks.

MTSU may very well be forced to totally rely on its passing game, which would put them right in the teeth of the UNT defense.

UNT's defense features two safeties that can cover, a former safety at one linebacker spot, a 2-3 deep defensive line rotation to keep the pressure up, and three very good coverage cornerbacks (even without senior CB Antoine Bush, who will not play this game).

In spite of the fact MTSU has four very good receivers, UNT has enough coverage to challenge them on every play, all game long.

Look for sophomore CB Royce Hill to get on the Sunbelt All-Conference Team radar this week and for UNT to have its best sack day of the young season.

I would not be shocked to see the Blue Raiders' offense get shut down for long spans of this game. While Dasher is a talented quarterback, I don't know if he is accurate enough to match his first few games' production in the face of what he'll see from UNT's defense, which is built to stymie spread sets and pass heavy offenses.

Offensively, UNT should be able to move the ball on MTSU. Quarterback Riley Dodge will play, as will veteran left tackle Victor Gill. UNT has one of the better offensive lines in the Sunbelt, so they should give the cool Dodge plenty of time to work through his progressions.

UNT has three solid receivers in true freshman Darius Carey and Juco imports Jamaal Jackson and Michael Outlaw.

Carey, in particular, should be fun to watch this week. After catching five passes against Alabama, I think the coaching staff may be affording a little more trust to him. Don't be surprised if he breaks a very big play this week. 

I also wouldn't be surprised to see either Carey or Jackson (or possibly both) be the first UNT receivers to have a 100-yard game this season.

A wild card in the equation is wide receiver BJ Lewis.

Lewis was a high school star who showed some breakaway speed and a nose for the end zone in the final fall scrimmage, but has been an injury scratch for the season. If he is healthy, Lewis could be another surprise that MTSU may not have tape or an answer for. 

It should also be noted that MTSU did not exactly control Cam Montgomery last year. Montgomery ran for 77 yards—averaging 6.4 yards per carry—and a touchdown. If the Mean Green hadn't been down by so much and been forced to totally abandon the run, he could have had a very good game.

Look for at least 150 yards and two touchdowns from Montgomery this year.

Really, this game breaks down like a UNT romp. But the Mean Green is a young team that hasn't proven they can handle success well, or that they can hold onto leads (see the Ohio game). Like Ohio, MTSU is a tough team with no quit in them.

I am expecting UNT to again run out to a fairly good lead by the third quarter—say 31-16—and then MTSU to come battling back and make the game a nail biter.

38-36, UNT.