LSU Basketball

The NCAA Tournament South Regional First Round

No. 9 Butler (26-5) vs. No. 8 Louisiana State (26-7)

The Line: LSU -2 1/2

Thursday, March 19, 2009—12:20 PM EST

The first game of the NCAA tournament this year is one of the better first round matchups. This game features the regular season champs from the Horizon League, the Butler Bulldogs, against the regular season champs from the SEC, the LSU Tigers.

I was on Brian Scott's radio show in Baton Rouge on Monday this week talking about this game, the tournament in general, and our Free NCAA Tournament Bracket Contest with a $250 cash first prize, and I got the strong feeling that the people on the Bayou felt shafted by their seed and draw in the dance.

While winning the tourney and even getting to the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, or Final Four takes some incredible breaks, they feel that a probable second round matchup with the North Carolina Tar Heels was hardly a proper reward for a solid season. Such is life in NCAA hoops when you lose three of your last four.

Butler played well most of the season but was unable to close the deal in the Horizon League Tournament as well, losing to Cleveland State. The Bulldogs had a two-game lapse fairly late in the season and rebounded nicely beating Davidson on BracketBuster Saturday.

Butler put themselves in position to win their conference tourney by just having to win two games but couldn't get it done, and it may have cost them four positions or more in the seedings.

It's pretty clear that either of these teams could have been higher seeds and no one would have complained.

See this and all free NCAA Tournament picks against the spread.

The regular-season SEC champion LSU Tigers have a tough road in the NCAA Tournament. They are starting out playing a very good Butler team.

If they are able to make it past the first round, they will probably play North Carolina, the regular-season champs from the ACC.

But before the boys from the bayou can concern themselves with Tar Heels, they must worry about the Bulldogs. There are some key matchups that LSU must be aware of to have the best chance to win.

Firstly, there's Tasmin Mitchell against Matt Howard. These are two physical players who are very active down low. Howard is Butler's leading scorer, which makes it particularly important that Tasmin sticks him.

I'll give the advantage to Mitchell for now because of the way he can stretch the defense with his outside-shooting abilities.

The next big pairing is Chris Johnson against Willie Veasley. This will be significant, as both can ball despite a lack of size.

LSU has the upper hand here as well, as Chris is much taller and a better shooter than Willie.

I could see coach Trent Johnson switching his players in these two duels due to height disparity; Howard is 6'8", Willie just 6'3".

Also take a look at Garrett Temple against Gordon Hayward. Gordon is Butler's best three-point shooter so if you're a Tigers fan, you have to hope Garrett slows him down.

This battle could come out in a tie. Even though Temple is a great defender, he still isn't the best shooter.

That being said, if he's on, LSU will have the luxury of an additional weapon.

Now consider Marcus Thornton against Shelvin Mack. Mack is second on his team in three-pointers, but Marcus is a great defender, like Temple.

The nod goes to Marcus; he'll be too much Mack to handle on both ends.

Finally, peek Bo Spencer against Ronald Nored. In my mind, there is no need for explanation here; Bo is a great defender, a deadly shooter, and is taller than Nored.

If you're looking for a game-changer, Bo will ultimately be that guy, based on his ability to shoot from very far out.

If Terry Martin and Quinton Thornton are able to come off the bench and man-up defensively on Butler's players, there is no way the Bulldogs will win this game. We know they'll be solid on offense, as Terry can shoot the three ball while Quinton will rough you up down low with his strength.

Still, LSU has a fair number of "ifs" going into this contest.

If LSU plays UNC in the second round, then they'll have to find a way to stop Tyler Hansbrough to have a chance. The Tigers should have Ty Lawson, Danny Green, and Wayne Ellington held in check by Bo Spencer, Marcus Thornton, and Garrett Temple.

The question is where to put Chris and Tasmin. Chris is too light to go up against Hansbrough, and Tasmin too short. The only other option would be to put Quinton on "Psycho T" to slow him. In that case, either Chris or Tasmin would rotate to Deon Thompson.

Only time will tell if LSU can pull it off and make it to the Sweet Sixteen, where they would probably play either Gonzaga or Illinois. For now, LSU needs to focus on the game at hand.

The LSU Tigers ended the regular season on a two-game losing streak.

They have not been able to win those games because they have failed at doing what they usually do that helps them win games.

The first thing is the fact they have not been able to have consistent shooting.

LSU has had many open shots, but they just are not knocking them down. In the Tiger's last two games, they have averaged a shooting percentage of 34 percent, which does not help win games. 

They have that horrible percentage because they have been shooting really bad shots. Along with shots that should go in nine out 10 times, but just are not falling. Like most of the three pointers they have shot.

It also does not help that they have scored 67 and 53 points in their last two games.

The second thing is that they have been missing free throws.

In their last games, LSU has missed nine free throws in each. If they could have made those free throws, those games could have gone their way.

Free throws are easy points, so you should make them because they help your team have a better chance to win games. It is essential for LSU to capitolize on those opportunities to get our of their current slump.

The final thing is that they have not been causing enough turnovers. Instead, they are turning over the ball too much, leading to easy shots for the other team.

If LSU wants to have a chance to make a run in the NCAA tournament, they must cause turnovers that will help them build a lead as well as score some easy points.

If you look at past champions, they have been able to cause turnovers, which would help them score more points giving them a better chance to win. The 2006 Tigers did this, and they made it to the final four without surrendering more than 70 points to any team.

If LSU can improve on these things, they should be a major contender for a team to make a run at a title. They have the SEC coach of the year, Trent Johnson, as well as the SEC player of the year, Marcus Thornton, on their team.

I believe they have the coaching and leadership from all of the veteran players on that team to do something great.

LSU will play either Kentucky or Ole Miss Friday, March 13 at 12:00 p.m. CT.

This will show how LSU responds to its second two-game losing streak of the season. 

The LSU Tigers clinched the SEC regular season title with their win in Rupp Arena on Saturday. LSU also broke an 11-game losing streak to Kentucky on the road.

The loss was the second of the week for the Wildcats who were blown out by South Carolina on Wednesday. The Gamecocks, however, couldn't keep up the momentum, as they lost at Vanderbilt this past weekend.

The teams that helped themselves the most this week both have a distinct flair of orange in their school colors. Both Tennessee and Auburn were 2-0 this week with big road victories to boot.

Team of the Week: LSU Tigers

NCAA Tournament Teams (In): LSU, South Carolina

NCAA Bubble Teams: Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky, Auburn

1. LSU

This team is for real in the SEC. I am interested to see what they can do in the NCAA Tournament, because they have dominated the conference but struggled in non-conference games.

2. South Carolina

Gamecocks could not keep the ball rolling after their big win over UK. A home date with Tennessee will give the winner the SEC East lead.

3. Tennessee

Bruce Pearl had his club ready to play in Gainesville as he continues his domination of Billy Donovan.

4. Auburn

Jeff Lebo's club has snuck up on most everyone this year and sits at 8-6 in the SEC. If this team gets to 10 conference wins, then they are in the NCAA Tournament.

5. Florida

Looks like it is going to be another nail bitter on Selection Sunday. If the Gators are left out, it would be two years in a row after winning back-to-back national titles in '06 and '07.

6. Kentucky

The Wildcats have serious work to do if they are to make it to March Madness with two losses this week. The game at Gainesville this weekend may be for a tourney berth.

7. Mississippi State

The Bulldogs looked like they were set to make a move on second place in the West, but two losses this week knock them out of serious NCAA contention.

8. Vanderbilt

That odd configuration at Memorial Gym proves deadly once again with a big win over South Carolina.

9. Alabama

Is it Spring Practice Yet? Saban is getting restless just watching the "voluntary workouts."

10. Ole Miss

Is it Spring Practice Yet? The Right Reverend can take us to the promise land this year.

11. Arkansas

The Razorbacks won the battle of the bottom by pounding Georgia on Sunday.

12. Georgia

Hey, you got your second SEC win of the season by a team that went out and defeated South Carolina!

Top Games this week:

Florida at Miss State Wed
Georgia at Kentucky Wed
Tennessee at South Carolina Thu
Kentucky at Florida Sat

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The West Division Champion LSU Tigers travel to Lexington to face a Kentucky team hungry to bounce back from a bad loss this week to South Carolina.

This is the first meeting between the two teams this season. The Wildcats really need this one to improve their NCAA Tournament chances.

Records:

LSU 24-4, 12-1, 5-2 (away), RPI #29
Kentucky 19-9, 8-5, 12-4 (home), RPI #61

Series:

Kentucky has won eight of the last 10
Kentucky has won the last 11 at Rupp Arena

What Kentucky Must Do To Win...

1. Take Care of the Rock
The Wildcats had 20 turnovers in the loss to South Carolina on Wednesday. UK is averaging 17 turnovers per game on the season but good news for Kentucky fans is that LSU is forcing just under 14 per game.

2. Shoot Better
Kentucky is a pretty good shooting team on average hitting just under 49 percent on the season, but that fell to 34 percent against South Carolina. Contrast that figure against a 60 percent game in a win versus Tennessee last weekend.

3. Punch LSU In the Mouth Early
The Tigers are winners of 12 straight and have not lost in over a month. I think UK needs to deliver an early punch and get the home crowd involved. This will be the toughest road game LSU has had in a while. We are not really sure how LSU will react to being down on the road because they have not been in so long.

What LSU Must Do To Win...

1. Pressure UK Point Guards
We saw on Wednesday what happens when you put pressure on Kentucky ball handlers full court. LSU has the athleticism in the back court to pressure the Wildcats and try to force turnovers.

2. Get Up Early
Kentucky has been like a snow ball at home this year because when they get up they have rarely given up the lead. Only South Carolina came from behind to win and the game was back and forth many times.

3. Get to the Offensive Glass
In addition to turnovers, Kentucky has struggled rebounding the ball this season. LSU averages 14 offensive rebounds per game. UK is giving up 12.5 per game The Wildcats are not a running team so the Tigers should not be afraid of crashing the offensive boards.

Prediction

It was hard to find things wrong with LSU because they haven't lost in so long. But Kentucky is a different team at home this year. The team that shoots the ball better will win this game. I think LSU is the better team, but not at Rupp—which has been a house of horrors for the Tigers (11 straight losses).

I will take Kentucky in a close game.

Kentucky wins by 2-8 points

Season: 19-18 SU through 2/24

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As the weeks until Selection Sunday become fewer, the SEC is making a stronger case for getting more than the four teams many pundits are saying they will get into the Tournament.

LSU could finish the SEC season 13-3 or even 14-2! The next three are all good teams and haven't done a whole to separate themselves from each other, but I give the nod to South Carolina this week. Stay tuned.

1. LSU

The Tigers have won eight in a row. Two huge games this week, though, will shape their NCAA seed a lot.

2. South Carolina

I wavered a little bit on putting the Gamecocks here because of their close wins of late, but they have won them all, which is more than most teams can say.

3. Kentucky

UK looked dominant against Tennessee on Saturday. If they stay healthy and get that kind of team production (i.e., outside of Meeks and Patterson) watch out in the NCAA Tournament.

4. Florida

The Gators season comes down to the next four games, and they are all winnable or all losable.

5. Mississippi State

6. Ole Miss

Andy Kennedy has done a fine job this year even with all the injuries, altercations with cabbies, and lack of sex.

7. Auburn

Don't look now, but Auburn is 6-6 in the SEC and you never know in the conference tournament.

8. Tennessee

This team needs a serious run to make the NCAA Tournament now, even with that tough schedule in their favor.

9. Vanderbilt

10. Alabama

11. Arkansas

12. Georgia

Still can't believe they beat Florida.

Top Games This Week:

Florida at LSU Tue
Kentucky at South Carolina Wed
LSU at Kentucky Sat

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Once again LSU just finds a way to win a game they probably shouldn't have won.

LSU came from 18 down with six minutes left to go in the first half at Arkansas to win the game 72-69. The Tigers shot terribly in the first half, but turned it around in the second to escape Fayetteville with a win.

This is LSU's 10th straight victory in the SEC and seventh overall.

How good is LSU?

Well, they have not lost a game in almost a month. The Tigers have a three game lead in the SEC ( that's right folks, the SEC, meaning they have a three game lead on teams like Kentucky, Florida, and Tennessee).

The Bayou Bengals are just so mentally tough under first year head coach Trent Johnson (who has my vote for SEC coach of the year). They have played without starting point guard Bo Spencer for the last two games.

Both games have been come from behind wins against decent opponents.

What can we expect from LSU the rest of the way? 

Well, with the win at Arkansas, LSU has locked up a first round bye in the SEC tournament. The magic number for LSU to clench the West is two.

As for the SEC Championship its variable at this point, at most its three but can be two if both of the wins are Florida and Tennessee.

That first round bye is critical for seeding purposes for the Tigers, because it means three games in three days instead of four in four. Which is important because the Tigers are not very deep.

As for the NCAA tournament, only time will tell, LSU has shown the ability to hang with any team on any given night so could be very dangerous come March, as long as they can stay healthy.

It’s Mardi Gras season in Louisiana and the good times have definitely been rolling for the LSU men’s basketball team.

On Monday, the team and its fans finally got what they all have been waiting for: The Tigers broke into the top 25 in both polls this week, No. 23 in the Associated Press and No. 24 in the coaches’ poll.

First-year head coach Trent Johnson has done a brilliant job coaching this veteran group to a sparkling 21-4 record. After opening SEC play with a loss at Alabama, the Tigers have rattled off nine straight wins and have a conference regular-season title in their sights.

But, do Johnson and this team have what it takes to finish the season strong and be a factor when March Madness comes around?

Here are some major questions the Tigers will have to answer if they want to have a chance in the NCAA tournament.

Can Johnson Find Any Production Off the Bench?

Saturday night’s comeback win over Ole Miss was a real gut check for the Tigers. It was nice to see that the team could overcome a relatively poor performance to get another win.

The problem with the win is that the bench only scored two of the 73 points put up by LSU. Alex Farrer’s two late free throws started and finished the bench scoring for the Tigers. In 40 combined minutes between five bench players, Delwan Graham took the only two shots.

If LSU is going to continue to be successful, the bench must produce positive minutes.

Quintin Thornton must play tough low post defense and rebound the basketball. Chris Bass must step up and spell Bo Spencer and Garrett Temple at the point guard position. Storm Warren must score five to seven points a game to keep some of the scoring load off the starters.

Will the Tigers Stay Healthy?

With very little production from the bench, LSU must stay healthy to maintain the level of success it has achieved of late.

Spencer suffered an ankle injury in the Mississippi State game. He accounts for 12 points per game, makes 43 percent of his three-pointers, dishes out three assists per game, and keeps the Tigers in their offensive game plan from his point guard position.

Without him, Johnson had to use his best bench threat, Terry Martin, in the starting lineup. If Tasmin Mitchell or Marcus Thornton went down, the Tigers would be hard pressed to score. If Chris Johnson got injured, how would LSU adjust defensively in the paint? Hopefully, none of these questions have to be answered.

Where Will the Tigers Be Seeded For the NCAA Tournament?

According to the latest Bracketology projections on ESPN.com, LSU would be a No. 7 seed in the East Regional, playing in Minneapolis. For a conference front-runner and a team with a 21-4 record, this seems low.

Three double-digit losses in non-conference play are not helping LSU’s argument for a higher seed.

The poor perception of the SEC plays a major role in this as well. Obviously, the conference is down this season with many schools playing with extremely young rosters due to graduation and departures to the NBA.

Two schools have fired coaches during the season.

But looking at those same bracket projections, the SEC has five schools in the field. The Tigers will need to win at least 13 league games, as well as win a game or two in the SEC tournament, to increase their seed. If they accomplish this, I feel LSU will receive a top-five seed and get a favorable matchup in the first round.

Hopefully, the Tigers won’t have to travel all the way to Minnesota to play, either.

Can LSU Sustain Its Strong Defense?

The Tigers have played tremendous defense this season under Trent Johnson. LSU has held opponents to just 64 points, 39 percent field goal percentage, and held a plus-seven rebounding edge per game. The Tigers also block six shots and get eight steals per game.

This kind of effort will be needed night in and night out to finish off this season successfully. Games against high-scoring teams like Florida and Kentucky will help LSU come tournament time. Guarding the likes of Jodie Meeks and Nick Calathes in big games will give the Tigers the experience necessary to win games in the NCAA tournament.

Also, LSU has had a tendency to go on long scoring droughts in its games. Stiff defense and rebounding can keep LSU in games when these droughts happen.

After a great game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, the Louisiana State University Tigers are 20-4 overall with an 8-1 conference record.

They have been able to achieve this by executing the fundamentals—a lost art indeed.

Going into the game against Ole Miss, LSU will be without Bo Spencer due to injury.

Even though Spencer has a sprained ankle, LSU should handle the Ole Miss Rebels with ease on Saturday. LSU should hold Spencer out of the Arkansas game just for precautionary reasons as well.

LSU could win the game with ease because Arkansas' point guard Courtney Fortson is suspended indefinitely—so LSU should be fine.

In the upcoming month, LSU will still have its team chemistry with Spencer coming back when Auburn comes to Baton Rouge. Though his injury might throw his timing off a bit with his teammates, he will do just fine.

With Spencer out, LSU is missing a proven point guard who is dead-eye from three point territory. Garrett Temple will do fine as point guard in Spencer's absence because he has played that position for the past two years.

For LSU, the next month will prove to the nation if they are for real or not. During this month, they must go up against powerhouse Florida and two teams on the rise—Auburn and Kentucky.

If LSU can sweep those games they will be just fine going into March—if they can continue to do the following things the way they have:

LSU needs to have consistent shooting. If LSU wants to make a strong run at a national title, they must make their shots. This will help them put more pressure on the opposition and make the game come to them.

The two players that must shoot consistently are Chris Johnson and Garrett Temple. If they can make their shots, then it will leave Tasmin Mitchell, Marcus Thornton, and Spencer open for shots.

Second, LSU needs to control the game from the opening tip to the final whistle. If they can do this, it will help them execute their plays to perfection. If they don't, then they are going to get a repeat dosage of what happened to them at Utah.

If they want to keep the game at their own pace, then they don't need to take shots early in the shot clock.

Thirdly, they need to play excellent defense. If they play well on defense, then they can get easy buckets on offense which will help build momentum.

Also, they really can't give up easy shots. If that starts to happen, then the opponent will run the same play over and over because LSU can't find an answer.

As most people have seen in recent games, Johnson has been attacked by the opposition. He needs to learn how to stand his ground and not get back downed to the hoop, which is what players have been doing to him just about every game.

Fourth, they need to keep the fouls to a minimum. LSU can't expect to win every game by fouling excessively. As you foul, the opposition has a better chance at making free throws than a well-contested shot.

In the last game LSU had four players foul out. LSU could have easily lost that game because they fouled enough to enable Mississippi State to shoot 52 free throws. Trent Johnson needs to work with his team on not fouling.

The final thing LSU must do is make their free throws. If they can make their free throws, then they will have a better chance of winning close games. There have been games won and lost on free throws.

If LSU can do all of these things, they will do fine come March Madness and they will hopefully bring home the school's second national title.

There have been questions on LSU's potential such as: "Is LSU good or do they just play in a bad conference?", and have been called "the worst 20-4 team in the nation." Well, you tell me this, if LSU would have played Xavier, Texas A&M, and Utah the way they are playing now do you think LSU would beat them?

When LSU played them, they had a poor night of shooting and we weren't playing LSU basketball. I can guarantee that if they play any of those teams again, they will beat them handily.

Also, isn't conference play harder than non-conference play? All the LSU haters—think about that.

LSU is as good as any team in the nation and will prove that come tournament time.

Junior forward Tasmin Mitchell scored a career-high 41 points in Starkville to lead LSU to a 97-94 win over Miss. State in double OT.  LSU is now 20-4 on the season and 8-1 in the SEC.

As March Madness approaches, who are these guys, and what do they have to do to make a run in the postseason?

1. What team leads the SEC conference?

The LSU Tigers with an 8-1 record lead the conference.  There are five teams with a 5-3 record: Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Miss. State.  LSU has yet to play Florida, nor have they played Kentucky, but has pinned losses on South Carolina and at Tennessee and beaten Miss. State twice.

2. Who?

Yes, it's true.  LSU, led by first year coach Trent Johnson, the scoring of senior guard Marcus Thornton (20 ppg), and the all-around play of Tasmin Mitchell (16 ppg and 7 rpg) have come out of nowhere to take the midseason SEC lead.

3. Is it legit?  Is this a team that can win the SEC?

The overall schedule LSU has faced is not great.  The non-conference schedule is rated 240th out of the 343 D-I teams, and LSU's RPI is 50 (heading into the game v. Miss State on Feb. 11).  Further, many analysts proclaim this is a down year for the SEC in general.

That said, LSU is an experienced team.  There are five seniors who contribute on the squad, and Mitchell is a fourth-year junior.  Mitchell was a major contributor on the Final Four team only a few years ago.  The team plays very good defense, can shoot the ball from the perimeter, rebounds well, and blocks shots, and Mitchell can score inside when necessary.

So yes, LSU can win the SEC.

4. Wait a moment, I just looked at the Top 25 rankings; LSU is nowhere to be found...?

Again, this is true—at the moment anyway.  If LSU beats Ole Miss at home this weekend, I am nearly certain LSU will be ranked next week.

That said, your point is a good one: How can a 20-4 team leading a big six conference by two games not be ranked?

5. Is this an NCAA tourney team?

In a word, yes.  LSU is now playing for seeding.  Seven games remain in the regular season plus the SEC Tourney.  Should LSU go 5-2 and win a couple of SEC tournament games and finish with a 27-7 or so record, LSU could be seeded as high as 4.

6. Is a March Madness run in the cards?

So much depends on the seeding and the matchups.  LSU's first six players—Thornton, Mitchell, senior guard Garrett Temple, senior center Chris Johnson, sophomore guard Bo Spencer and senior sixth man/guard Terry Martin—can play with anyone in the nation.

Experience, good coaching, hot shooting, solid defense, and rebounding can take this team a long way.

LSU's weakness is in the low post.  Chris Johnson is a dynamic shot blocker in the post, but he is undersized.  Teams with a low post scorer with some bulk have given LSU problems all year.

LSU's run in March Madness can be a special one IF Marcus Thornton keeps shooting well and finding ways to score, and IF Tasmin Mitchell plays, well, like he has the past couple of weeks.

7. How about a prediction?

LSU finishes the regular season with a 25-6 record.  13-3 in the SEC.  Gets to the SEC Tourney final.  Is awarded a 4 seed and does not disappoint, and the team makes it to the Sweet 16.