Not with a bang, but with a whimper. That is how Lance Armstrong’s Tour de France career is destined to come to a close thanks to a litany of challenges and mishaps that have destroyed his chances for that one final victory.
The idea of a comeback after four years of sitting around eating burgers and drinking beer was going to be a difficult task. Yet against all odds and even despite a fierce battle with then-teammate Alberto Contador, Armstrong pulled it off in 2009 with an unexpected podium finish.
Most pundits would suggest that Armstrong overachieved in 2009, particularly given that he was stuck in the middle of the divided and dysfunctional team Astana, and in open warfare with his team leader, Contador.
Armstrong was blessed with incredible luck during his record-breaking run of Tour victories, good fortune that would continue through 2009. He was even the recipient of the odd episode of individual sportsmanship, such as when Jan Ullrich waited for him when he was pulled off his bike by a spectator’s bag when climbing the hors categorie (beyond categorisation, i.e. really steep!) Luz Ardiden in 2003.
2010 has seen Armstrong’s luck evaporate. He has started out under intense scrutiny, thanks to Floyd Landis’ scatter-gun accusations of doping and the rumours of a US Anti-Doping Agency probe. Despite that he started the race in good form and singular focus, it lasted only one stage.
Silly falls on stage two, a badly timed puncture on stage three, and numerous more silly falls on stage eight—immediately before some massive climbs—have combined to make his obstacles to the title almost insurmountable.
Down by over 13 minutes against a field of this quality is too much and would require a Landis like recovery—and we all know how that happened and how it turned out. It is even too big a task for what, on paper, appears to be one of the strongest teams in this year’s Tour.
Armstrong looked like a beaten man by the end of the climb to Morzine-Avoriaz. Obviously in pain, he even sounded resigned to the fact that his story was not going to get the fairy tale ending that many—himself included—had hoped for.
It was interesting to see that the truce that was called on stage two, when Andy Schleck had a heavy fall, was not repeated when Armstrong had gone down. Maybe it was because Cancellara was even further back than Armstrong, but the sympathy at the front was certainly not there.
The leaders attacked when Armstrong was most vulnerable, showing a ruthlessness borne out of a desire to beat the best. In a sport with a kill-or-be-killed ethos, it doesn’t pay to be the wounded beast.
But Armstrong’s return was never about winning more Tour yellow jerseys. Its not that he wasn’t out there to win—you just can’t kill off that competitive spirit—but there were bigger ideals in play.
Armstrong’s return to cycling was always about providing a vehicle to promote his Livestrong foundation and to inspire people living with cancer.
No matter what you might think of him as a person or even as a cyclist, there can be no doubting that Livestrong is a noble cause. His return to cycling has taken it to an even bigger audience.
The way that Armstrong approaches the rest of the Tour will help shape, in part, his legacy. Tackling the gruelling ride that is the Tour de France is difficult enough at the best of times. Facing the next two weeks, knowing that he has no chance of even a podium finish, will provide a serious test of his commitment.
It is difficult to imagine that Armstrong will fade into the background of champions past, but whether he will turn himself into a faithful domestique in support of RadioShack’s best placed rider, Levi Leipheimer, is another matter. For the man to live up to the myth, he has little choice but to finish with dignity.
It will be very surprising if he doesn’t. He's already proven that being a quitter is not in his character.