Junior Middleweight

It would be an earthquake if Floyd Mayweather loses to Saul "Canelo" Alvarez.

That’s what former HBO boxing announcer and analyst Larry Merchant said, per BoxingNewsOnline.net, when asked about how big of a surprise a Canelo upset over Mayweather would be on September 14.

The verdict is in: Experts are almost unanimously predicting Mayweather to defeat Alvarez. But that shouldn’t surprise you. Does it?

Mayweather has reigned as king in the ring—and on the promotional circuit—for as long as any of us can remember. Despite a strong inclination to support his opponents in the past, mainstream and expert opinions are collectively warming to the idea that the champ might just be unbeatable.

While that’s a bit of hyperbole—anyone is beatable if the stars align—it might not be too far from the truth. Well, unless "Money" continues boxing past his prime and gets surprised by a young up-and-coming fighter...like Canelo.

Let’s take it to the experts before we get ahead of ourselves. Below you’ll find a few picks and the reasoning behind them.

ESPN boxing writer Dan Rafael: Mayweather

Longtime boxing analyst Dan Rafael created a lengthy and deep preview and prediction for this long-awaited title bout. In it, he broke down the fighters by category, giving the edge to Mayweather in experience, speed, defense and stamina while giving Alvarez the nod in power. He gave both a tie in durability given their ability to stay upright throughout their careers.

Mayweather has officially been knocked down just once, and Alvarez has yet to taste the canvas.

In the end, Rafael left the chance for an upset if Alvarez can land a “devastating blow” but tabbed Mayweather as the eventual winner thanks to his speed and defensive acumen.

ESPN boxing editor Brian Campbell: Mayweather

Like his colleague, Campbell addressed Mayweather’s strengths as all-encompassing.

“One would be hard-pressed, however, to find someone who predicts an Alvarez victory, which is understandable considering 'Money' Mayweather's advantages in speed, skill and experience,” Campbell wrote.

The theme of experience may be the overarching advantage for Mayweather heading in, but Campbell didn't predict the pound-for-pound king to come away unscathed in Las Vegas. His prediction was bold, but it just might happen on Saturday night.

“Floyd will make the adjustments to win a clean decision, but it won’t be without drama thanks to a knockdown and the constant threat of Canelo’s power in the aftermath."

HBO boxing analyst and RING super middleweight champion Andre Ward: Mayweather

Again, experience is the overlying basis for another prediction in Mayweather’s favor. Ward said the junior middleweight champion’s competition hasn’t been up to par with Money’s heading into the bout, according to Lem Satterfield of The Ring:

I think that you've got to go with Floyd Mayweather. Even though Canelo has a lot of fights, he's really got a lot of...really there's just one guy that jumps out that is a top-level fighter, and that's Austin Trout. Baldomir was older.

Like Campbell and Rafael, Ward did leave the possibility for a stunning knockout by Canelo, but he also said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if Mayweather ended up scoring a knockout victory instead.

Former boxing great George Foreman: Alvarez

Perhaps it's wishful thinking—drawing back to when he failed to defend his title against an older Muhammad Ali—but George Foreman believes Alvarez is not only capable but will knock out Mayweather on September 14.

Speaking on ATG Radio (h/t BoxingScene.com), the former champion had this to say:

Alvarez, this is his fight to lose. I'll put it to you like this—He's younger, he's a harder puncher, he has a greater future, he has nothing to lose. He can win this fight. Mayweather on the other hand can't hurt anybody. So, the other guy has no chance of being hurt. The only fella that Mayweather ever hurt was his own hand, Mayweather's right hand. He's no danger in hurting Alvarez. Alvarez can punch. If he paces himself, he can knock [Mayweather out] by the ninth round. This is a competitive fight, unheard of - a great fighter with so much potential to take on such an experienced fighter like Mayweather.

Foreman’s robust support for Alvarez isn’t crazy, especially considering the previous analysis from other experts. But his willingness to heavily get behind that idea stands out from the others.

Perhaps he’s onto something and is one of the few willing to throw his contrary opinion out there. If he’s right, he’ll get notoriety for predicting the fall of one of the best boxers of our era.

When arguably two of the best fighters in the world meet, there is cause for attention and fanfare. When one of the fighters' names is Floyd "Money" Mayweather (44-0, 26 KO), the hype is amplified.

Mayweather is boxing's version of legendary stock brokerage firm, E.F. Hutton. The famous campaign for the firm used to say, "When E.F. Hutton speaks, people listen."

Well, when Mayweather fights, people watch, and taking on a young, undefeated fighter with a tremendous following like Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KO) makes the Sept. 14 bout a certified mega sports event.

Mayweather's WBA Super light middleweight title and Alvarez's WBC crown will be on the line.

Money is guaranteed to earn $41.5 million for his night's work, a record for any boxer in the sport, per Mitch Abramson of the New York Daily News. Stars from the sports and entertainment world will converge upon the MGM Grand in Las Vegas for the event billed as The One.

Here's how you can watch.

The Showdown

The Book on Mayweather

Mayweather's humongous promotional deal with Showtime/CBS, per Dan Rafael of ESPN, could ideally set him up to take on the best fighters in his weight region and walk away from the sport undefeated. If he completes this deal unscathed and calls it a career, it would be hard not to call him the greatest of all time.

A masterful performance against underrated contender Robert "The Ghost" Guerrero showed that even at 36 years old Mayweather hadn't lost a step. With his father back in his corner, the defensive brilliance that had been the hallmark of his career has returned. 

This approach puts Mayweather in the best position to accomplish his goal and remain dominant.

The Book on Alvarez

At 23 years old, Alvarez has already won 42 fights. Though he hasn't faced anyone close to Mayweather's caliber, he has fought and defeated the likes of Austin "No Doubt" Trout and an over-the-hill "Sugar" Shane Mosley.

Despite his quiet demeanor, Alvarez has become arguably the most popular Mexican fighter in the world. Amongst such a boxing-rich community, that designation gives him a formidable following that should generate a large contingent of fans at the MGM Grand on Saturday.

Prediction

Quite frankly, if Mayweather is in the same form he was in for the Guerrero fight, Canelo has almost no chance to win. The speed, agility and conditioning advantages would all favor Mayweather in this scenario and Money would glide to an easy decision win—or possibly even stop Alvarez late.

Because Alvarez is a good puncher, he has that element as a potential equalizer. However, if he is going to catch Mayweather, he has to do it early. Mayweather is the best in the sport at making in-ring adjustments.

The longer the fight goes, the more dominant Mayweather will become. There is cause for more concern in this fight than was the case against Guerrero. Alvarez is younger and stronger, but he's also never been on a stage this big. 

In the end, talent and experience will prevail and Mayweather will remain undefeated. Look for a ninth-round stoppage and the talks of a Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao fight start to heat up yet again.

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Next Saturday night, Canelo Alvarez will take on pound-for-pound kingpin Floyd Mayweather in a Jr. Middleweight championship bout. While much fanfare is being made about the fight, the question has to be asked: Does Canelo have a chance to pull off the upset? 

Canelo's Power

Anytime you have a fighter with legitimate one-punch knockout power, they've got a shot to pull off the victory. Canelo has shown throughout his career that he can get any fighter out of there at any time. Three years ago, a 20-year-old Alvarez scored a phenomenal one-punch KO over the iron chinned Carlos Baldomir. 

He was the first man ever to knock down Austin Trout, and he showed tremendous combination power punching last year against Josesito Lopez. 

So clearly, he's got the power. Can he connect on Mayweather? 

Canelo's Combinations

Although he didn't show it all that much against Trout, Canelo, as previously mentioned, is an outstanding combination puncher. Canelo unleashes eight-punch combinations with vicious fury and bad intentions.

This will be absolutely critical. Mayweather's defensive ability stifles his opponents offense, often leading them to severely reduce their punch output. Canelo can't fall into this trap. Canelo has to force himself on Mayweather to keep his output up and keep that jab pumping. 

If Canelo is reduced to throwing 30 to 35 punches a round, which is entirely possible, he'll have no chance in this fight. If he is only throwing one punch at a time, Mayweather will just pick him apart and potshot his way to an easy victory. 

Canelo needs to be throwing hard combinations to the body to try and wear Mayweather down. If he can do this, he'll have a shot. 

Worth the Weight? 

Forgive the bad pun that you've probably seen a million times about this fight, but as we all know, Canelo has to get down to 152 pounds at the Sept. 13 weigh-in. Canelo weighed in at 153.5 for his last fight against Trout, so he only needs to drop 1.5 pounds more. 

Personally, I don't think it's a problem. Yes, Canelo is big for the 154-pound weight class and is probably going to be a middleweight sooner rather than later, but getting down to 152 isn't going to make any difference in this fight. 

With the nutritionists that fighters have nowadays, cutting weight is more of a science than it used to be, and Canelo will be able to make weight and then bulk back up to 170-plus pounds. 

The Bottom Line

What it all comes down to in this fight is if Canelo can keep the pressure on Floyd and deliver powerful combinations and keep his work rate up, as well as using his strength and size. 

One more small thing. Everyone who fights Mayweather tries to knock him out by hitting him on the chin.

It's not going to work.

Canelo needs to aim higher on Mayweather's head, not at his chin. No one seems to have understood that and fighters keep trying to hit his chin and wind up hitting his shoulder instead due to his shoulder roll defense. 

Hopefully for Canelo fans, he and his team will realize this and make the adjustment. After he throws the jab, he needs to come over the top with a right hand aimed for the temple, not the chin. If he does this, he might just pull off the upset. 

On Sept. 14, Floyd “Money” Mayweather (44-0, 26 KOs) faces Saul “El Canelo” Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KOs) at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

The latest installment of Showtime’s All Access documents every stirring moment in advance of the most anticipated pay-per-view fight since Mayweather snatched the WBC light middleweight title from the President of Golden Boy Promotions, Oscar De La Hoya, in 2007.

In the clip above, De La Hoya admits to an interminable bitterness towards Mayweather, even six years after their fight.

“There’s still this little thorn in me… that I still haven’t taken out,” says De La Hoya when referring to the animosity he and Mayweather share.

Mayweather, never shy to employ his brand of mind games—during the promotional tour—mocks De La Hoya’s notion of Alvarez being “boxing’s biggest star” and goes as far as suggesting that he might as well be called the “Golden Boy” on account of his success against fighters on the Golden Boy roster, defeating five of them since 2007.

As of late, Mayweather’s victories have come on the back of his aura of invincibility. He defeats many opponents before the opening bell even sounds. 

This last May, he even managed to draw the usually humble Robert Guerrero into exchange after exchange of trash-talking banter. Whether or not Mayweather’s opposition wholeheartedly believes they’ve won these verbal conflicts with him, does not matter. 

Their participation in the first place, positions them right where Mayweather wants them and gives him the upper hand.

So far, De La Hoya hasn't backed down from this provocation and is doing enough talking for him and Alvarez.

“But one thing Mayweather has to understand is that my fighter’s going to kick your ass,” says an unflinching De La Hoya.

To that end, no matter the residual animosity between the two, it won’t be the six-division world champion De La Hoya stepping into the ring with Mayweather. It’s going to be the Mexican phenom they call “El Canelo.”

So where is Alvarez through all of this? Behind all of the verbal jabs, El Canelo waits—quietly, but self-assured.

“I’m not intimidated by anyone,” Alvarez tells a rabid crowd in San Antonio, Texas, ready to give Mayweather the biggest test of his career. 

Alvarez has been pegged as the future of the sport, Mayweather says he is the sport and All Access: Mayweather-Canelo gives the fans an intimate look inside the lives of both combatants.

All Access debuts tonight at 10 p.m. ET/ 7 p.m. PT on Showtime.

Newly crowned IBF light middleweight champion Ishe "Sugar Shay" Smith (25-5, 11 KO) couldn't be in a much better position. His first title defense will take place on the undercard of the Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Canelo Alvarez superfight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas—Smith's hometown—on Sept. 14.

The 35-year-old Smith will take on veteran Carlos "King" Molina (21-5-2, 6 KO) as part of a stellar pay-per-view event that will also feature Lucas Matthysse challenging WBA and WBC light welterweight champion Danny Garcia.

The Garcia vs. Matthysse bout could headline a major card on a cable network. For it to be included in the Mayweather vs. Canelo card is great. Because of the appeal of the top-two fights, the pay-per-view buys should be impressive.

That dynamic will create a sizable audience for every fighter scheduled to compete. 

Despite his world champion status, Smith isn't a household name by any stretch. An impressive performance against Molina could raise his level of appeal with boxing fans. He has proved to be a good technical boxer with a solid chin.

Smith has been in the ring with big punchers like Randall Bailey and Danny Jacobs, but he hasn't been floored in his career.

Though he's rugged, Smith doesn't have a ton of power, as evidenced by his 11 KO wins in 30 fights.

That's part of the reason he hasn't established himself as a bigger name in the sport—despite winning a world title. 

His opponent isn't a powerful puncher either. Molina has stopped only six opponents in his career. He brings a similar toughness, having never been stopped, but Smith has the edge in quickness and a slight reach advantage.

Molina's defense isn't exceptional, and his style should create opportunities for Smith to land big shots on the challenger. This fight shapes up as a potential showcase for Smith on one of the biggest stages he'll perform on his career.

Signing with The Money Team, Mayweather's promotional group, was a great move for Smith. He's already seen his notoriety and success grow since joining the power group.

At 35 years old, he must take advantage of the opportunities he's getting. All signs point to a shining performance from him in his hometown.

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Floyd "Money" Mayweather is easily one of the best athletes in the world. He's become one of boxing's biggest stars and, boasting a perfect record of 44-0, has proved that he can't be bested in the ring. 

That could all change on September 14. 

On September 14 Mayweather will head to the ring at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas to do battle with Saul "Canelo" Alvarez as they aim to unify their junior middleweight titles. Alvarez will not only give Money a good fight, but he'll give him one of the toughest challenges of his career. 

Alvarez, like Mayweather, is undefeated with a record of 42-0-1, with a draw coming against Jorge Juarez in just the fifth fight of his career all the way back in 2006. Since then, Alvarez has been unstoppable. 31 of Alvarez's 43 wins have come by way of knockout.

That's five more than Mayweather's 26 knockouts in his 44 fights.

Alvarez brings a ton of power into his meeting with Mayweather, but he also brings something else that Mayweather hasn't seen in an opponent since his 2007 battle with Ricky Hatton; an undefeated record. Mayweather has been fighting some of boxing's best, but he's fighting guys who have already been broken. Alvarez has not. 

Another thing going against Mayweather in this one is Alvarez's latest fight. This will be Alvarez's second consecutive fight against an undefeated opponent. Back in April Alvarez took down the previously undefeated Austin Trout by unanimous decision to stay undefeated and retain his WBC Light Middleweight Championship. 

While it may seem like the odds are stacked against Mayweather, let's not forget one thing he has that Alvarez doesn't; his name. He's Floyd "Money" Mayweather. Even Mike Tyson, the "Baddest Man on the Planet" sees it:

Money is just that—money. He's one of the best boxers in the history of the sport and he simply can't be touched. While Alvarez has been keeping pace by winning all of his fights, he hasn't been fighting the competition that Mayweather has matched up with. Money's last five victories came against some impressive opponents, including: Robert Guerrero, Miguel Cotto, Victor Ortiz, Shane Mosley and Juan Manuel Marquez. 

Mayweather will also have home-field advantage of sorts, fighting his eighth consecutive fight in the friendly confines of the MGM Grand in Vegas. 

Alvarez is a great competitor, but even fighting at the top of his game just might not be enough to topple Mayweather, but one thing is for sure: This is going to be one heck of a fight. According to Boxing expert Dan Rafael at ESPN.com, this fight is already breaking records, setting the all-time live gate record for boxing, selling out just 24 hours after tickets went on sale. 

Mayweather is one of the best to ever do battle in the squared circle, and while there might not be a man on the planet who can take him down, Canelo Alvarez certainly has the best shot at it. He's coming off of a huge victory against an unbeaten opponent and has nothing to lose going into the September 14 meeting with Money. 

If Floyd "Money" Mayweather defeats Saul "Canelo" Alvarez on Sept. 14, it would be the pinnacle of an already Hall of Fame career. Canelo Alvarez is a very good fighter, but he isn't the best Money has ever faced. While smart money is on Mayweather to win by decision, a stoppage would make a huge statement.

Most expect Money's quickness, agility, guile and tremendous boxing I.Q. to lead to a decision win. But if Mayweather can parlay all those advantages into a KO/TKO win, he will have asserted his dominance over the best young, realistic challenger to his crown of best pound-for-pound fighter in the world.

To accomplish this over a man 13 years his junior would be amazing. When Mayweather won his first world title, Alvarez was just eight years old. Those types of facts are impressive to read, but despite the aberrational success Bernard Hopkins has sustained, boxing is still a young man's game.

It would be impressive if Money, with 13 more years of wear on his tires, can beat Alvarez. If he stops him it would be an awe-inspiring and mouth-shutting performance for Mayweather's admirers and haters, respectively.

Anyone who has followed Mayweather's career knows he's not a KO fighter.

While 26 KO wins in 44 bouts produces a respectable KO percentage of 59.09, Money is perhaps a medium between Paulie Malignaggi's meager 18.92-percent mark and Pipino Cuevas' ferocious 88-percent KO rate.

Alvarez has not only never been stopped or beaten, and he's only been visibly stunned once by most accounts. Those facts would only add to the accomplishment if Mayweather is able to end Alvarez's night early.

While the numbers and specifics may make this result seem unlikely, it is possible. 

Mayweather is all about making statements at this point in his career. With the end of his time in the ring drawing near, he is fighting with his legacy at the forefront of his mind. He's ultra competitive and he's driven by being known as the best.

If he follows a game plan and makes the adjustments accordingly, he should have the opportunity to break his young foe late in the fight. That is assuming Alvarez doesn't land something night-changing before the fight takes its natural course.

Stamina has always been an issue for Alvarez and that could get him into trouble against Money. Don't be shocked if Canelo's corner makes an executive decision to halt the bout late if their fighter is battered, beaten and exhausted.

He'll only be 23 years old at the time of the fight. His image can be rebuilt, but the effects from a punishing KO would take more time to heal. Any legitimate win for Mayweather would continue his dominance, but a KO/TKO win would be hard to top moving forward.

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On Monday, Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Canelo Alvarez will begin a rare—if not unprecedented—11-city tour to promote their Sept. 14 bout, per Ring Magazine.

A promotional strategy this big is uncommon—even for a Mayweather fight—but if there is a fighter in the world who can handle the hype, it's Money. In contrast, if there is a fighter whose makeup would suggest that the massive hoopla could distract them, it may be Canelo Alvarez.

The 22-year-old super middleweight champion is quiet, reserved and seemingly quite shy in nature. It is easy to see how these events could put him in an uncomfortable space.

Mayweather will use every opportunity to gain a mental edge over Canelo. You never know when Mayweather will turn on the bravado, or hit you with the more introspective and softer-spoken Money we've seen more and more as he's gotten older.

In any case, Mayweather keeps his opponents off balance before fights about as much as he has during fights over his legendary career.

The tour is set to end on July 2, with stops in Phoenix and L.A. It is nearly two-and-a-half months before the men are set to meet in the ring, but in such a big fight, one has to wonder how an unorthodox event during fight preparations could affect the participants.

There are even more reasons beyond his introverted demeanor that would suggest Canelo may be adversely affected by the tour.

Not only is Mayweather the older, more experienced fighter in major fights, but he's also in the more comfortable position of having to add weight to meet the 152-pound weight limit.

Alvarez is already a bigger man naturally, but now he has to come down—albeit just two pounds—to make weight. It is yet another adjustment in the process of preparation.

At such a high level, every little edge counts. Against the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world, there will be little-to-no room for error or a lack of focus. The tour equates to just another potential distraction for Alvarez en route to the biggest fight of his life.

Fighting Mayweather is as much about mental preparedness as it is about physical execution. The mind games and psychological warfare begin the moment he acknowledges an opposing fighter's presence on his radar.

It continues through the pre-fight negotiations and after the fight has been agreed to. Few can match Mayweather when it comes to trash talk. Alvarez isn't even close in that regard. This tour is only going to make that point more obvious.

Poise and patience will be a key if Alvarez is going to have a chance to best Mayweather. Money's psyche games over the course of an eight-day tour could get under Alvarez's skin and make him abandon his game plan in the ring.

Before Mayweather fought Robert Guerrero, he completely dismantled him in their face-to-face promotional meeting. Money also duped his opponent into thinking he'd slug him toe-to-toe.

This didn't happen, and while this trickery wasn't the primary reason Money destroyed Guerrero, it worked as a small piece to a masterfully assembled puzzle.

The platform this tour creates will allow Money ample time to prep the subject of his next masterpiece.

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