Boise State Football

At 3-2 with no votes in either the most recent AP or Coaches polls, it’s safe to say that the Boise State Broncos football team will not be entering the Top 10 in 2013. However, based on the personnel in the program, there is reason to believe that the Broncos have a shot at making it back to the elite ranks in the future.

That will be especially important if Boise State hopes to be a perennial contender in the playoff system that will take over following the conclusion of the current season.

But before Chris Petersen’s squad can once again make a statement as one of the best teams in the nation, steps need to be taken to become a complete team. In this article, we’ll take a look at what some of those steps are.

As a forewarning, not all of these steps can be taken this year. In fact, most of these steps will require at least the next offseason to fully accomplish. But without these steps, Boise State will have a tough time securing the one bid that the “Group of Five” conferences receives in college football’s future playoff format.

Continue to Develop Ajayi and Baltazar

It can be said time and time again that Chris Petersen likes to get things going on the ground before anything else. This season is no different, as the Broncos are third in the Mountain West in rushing yards per game and lead the conference in rushing touchdowns.

Much of the success can be attributed to sophomore running back Jay Ajayi and freshman sensation Aaron Baltazar. Ajayi, the starter, has proven himself to be the bruiser of the two backs, while Baltazar is lighting in a bottle who also appeared to put on some muscle since being recruited.

In the coming seasons, the quarterback situation at Boise State could be in flux. The 2014 season could see Grant Hedrick behind center as a senior without a ton of experience. On the other hand, Hedrick’s running ability could give the Broncos an added bonus on the ground.

After 2014, the quarterback situation becomes even cloudier. Youngsters Nick Patti, Ryan Finley and Jalen Greene will all be in the mix for the starting job at that point.

It’s too early to comment at length on those quarterbacks. But it isn’t too early to comment on the running backs that are already contributing to the current team. Ajayi and Baltazar are both the present and future of the running game and will continue to be a focal point of the offense as long as they’re healthy.

If Boise State wants to run the table in the Mountain West Conference in the coming years, it will need to continue to groom its ball carriers to become elite.

Find Another Pair of Shutdown Corners

From 2010-2012, the Boise State Broncos defense was at worst fourth best in its conference in pass defense. A big reason for that was the shutdown tandem of Jamar Taylor and Jerrell Gavins.

Taylor, an eventual second-round draft pick of the Miami Dolphins in the 2013 NFL draft, and Gavins, a consistent performer throughout his career in Boise, made it difficult for even the best quarterbacks to find open receivers.

The 2013 season has made Bronco Nation dearly miss Taylor and Gavins. Through five games, the Broncos are seventh in the conference in pass defense, and the 251.2 yards per game given up through the air accounts for more than 60 percent of the total yards the Broncos allow.

Here’s the kicker: The Broncos are second in the conference in total yards given up. Translation: Shore up the pass defense.

The Broncos are young on defense, and it isn’t all that surprising that veteran quarterbacks such as Keith Price and Derek Carr are picking apart the secondary. Looking back, it was probably foolish to assume that Taylor and Gavins would be replaced so seamlessly.

At any rate, if Boise State wants to become an elite team once again, it must first become an elite defense. From what we’ve seen this year, that starts by finding capable cornerbacks. Whether it be from somewhere on the depth chart or through future recruiting classes is negligible.

Pummel the Weak

Boise State is not in a Power Five conference. At least not yet. And until (and if) the Broncos make that move, they will have to prove to the pollsters that they are worthy of a Top 10 ranking in ways different than their power-conference counterparts.

As it did against 0-4 Southern Mississippi the previous week, Boise State will have to put on a show against the weaker competition it regularly faces in order to attract the attention of voters who can’t possibly watch every game every weekend.

Call it unfair if you want, but it’s the nature of college football. As far as perception is concerned, not much will change for the Broncos once the sport enters into the playoff era. Coaches and fans often preach about only worrying about what their own team does rather than relying on the competition (or voters) for help.

Well, the Broncos are capable of putting a beating on several Mountain West Conference foes every season. If they want to climb as high as the Top 10 in the rankings, they’ll need to do it to make a statement.

All for Naught?

When one really thinks about it, what does a Top 10 ranking mean anyway? The Broncos should have the goal of becoming an elite team. If a Top 10 ranking follows, great.

If it doesn’t?

The “Group of Five” conferences are guaranteed a spot in college football’s playoff format. Some years, a team from that collective may be a Top 10 team. But it’s not a requirement. And in the end, being an annual selection to college football’s playoff is what the ultimate goal for Boise State should be.

So if it doesn’t—oh well.

When Joe Southwick ends his career as a Boise State Bronco sometime in mid-December of this year, the greatest quarterback competition of the decade in Boise will begin. Grant Hedrick, Nick Patti, Ryan Finley, Jalen Greene…they’ll all be there.

But who’s to say that the man who emerges from the pack will actually be a step up from Southwick, considering that each of the four players mentioned has had very limited on-field experience?

For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Hedrick will be named the starter of the 2014 Boise State Broncos football team. The redshirt junior has been No. 2 on the depth chart for two seasons now, and he has looked favorable compared to redshirt freshman Patti at almost every turn.

He has also been receiving much more playing time than Patti during the 2013 season, and he has made the most of his audition time.

Take two weeks ago at Fresno State, for instance. Coming in for Southwick after the starter suffered a shoulder injury, Hedrick fired an 18-yard touchdown pass to Troy Ware.

That was his first, and last, pass attempt of the game. But unlike any of the action he or any other backup had seen up to that point this season, the touchdown actually mattered. Boise State was trailing the Bulldogs 17-10 in the second quarter at the time.

The fact that Hedrick can come in cold and produce immediately should make Broncos fans very happy. Last season, it took Southwick nearly half the season to earn enough confidence from the coaching staff that he was tasked with slinging the ball around the field. With Hedrick, the Broncos may be ready to air it out much earlier in the season than they were able to do when Southwick was a new starter.

But perhaps more importantly, Hedrick possesses a skill that Boise State fans haven’t truly seen in a starting quarterback since Jared Zabransky.

The 6’0”, 202-pound junior can run. Really run. In fact, he has 79 yards on the ground to Southwick’s 106 this season. Hedrick has six rushing attempts on the year. Southwick has 36.

To be fair, it isn’t Southwick’s job to run the ball regularly. And Hedrick’s stats are largely inflated by a 50-yard touchdown run during mop up time in the Tennessee-Martin game on September 7. But it has been noted that Hedrick is a very capable rusher dating back to his high school days.

With Jay Ajayi and Aaron Baltazar at running back, having Hedrick at quarterback could propel the Broncos into the discussion for best rushing attacks in the nation. Chris Petersen has long been known as a coach who prefers to control things with the run game first and foremost, and he would essentially have a three-headed monster with Hedrick at the helm.

Boise State has had a rapid progression at quarterback regarding running ability. Kellen Moore could escape pressure but couldn’t run. Joe Southwick can move fairly adeptly but prefers to look for receivers downfield (and still makes poor decisions from time to time as a result). Hedrick is the kind of player who Boise State hasn’t really had under the tutelage of Coach Petersen: a dual threat.

Obviously, Hedrick isn’t perfect. In the second quarter of this past Saturday’s game against Southern Mississippi, Hedrick fumbled the ball on a play that was already going to result in a loss of yards. The turnover resulted in the Golden Eagles’ only points of the game.

But then he’ll do something impressive, like completing all three of his pass attempts for 45 yards in the same game.

It may be a bit early to speculate on Boise State’s 2014 starting quarterback. Keep in mind, Patti was highly regarded when he came to Boise and both he and Hedrick have a lot of time to make their case.

For right now, though, Hedrick has a leg up. And based on the limited serving size we've gotten so far, he appears to have the legs and readiness to lead to be a step up from Southwick.

The king is dead, long live the king!

Or is he?

After Fresno State's thrilling 41-40 victory over Boise State in front of a raucous San Joaquin Valley crowd Friday night, it sure seems that the Broncos' days as the top dog of BCS busters are over.

But, as Lee Corso might say, not so fast, my friend!

Already with two losses this season, Boise State certainly seems to be rebuilding after seven straight seasons with at least 11 wins. In fact, since the BCS adopted the current format to add a BCS bowl in 2006, the Broncos have been in contention for a BCS berth every single year:

• In 2006 and 2009, they earned a BCS bid and won the Fiesta Bowl each time.
• In 2007, they lost to Hawaii in the last regular-season game and the Warriors got the BCS buster bid (then promptly got thrashed in the Sugar Bowl).
• In 2008, they finished the regular season undefeated but were relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl when Utah finished higher in the BCS standings.
• In 2010 and 2011, they were on course for a BCS buster bid when their undefeated seasons were derailed in November on a missed field goal (vs. Nevada in '10 and TCU in '11).
• In 2012, they lost the season opener at Michigan State but still had a chance for a BCS bid until a 21-19 home loss to San Diego State.

This year, it certainly looks like we don't need to wait until November to write off the Broncos. They were already only No. 37 in the simulated BCS standings coming into Friday's game, and after the loss, they'll probably be completely out of the standings, possibly for good.

Into the breach for the 2013 BCS buster bid is Fresno State, now 3-0 with a couple of harrowing escapes at home against Rutgers and Boise State. The Bulldogs' schedule now gets considerably easier as they have an open path to the Mountain West championship game. They were already the highest ranked non-BCS team going into Friday night's game (No. 32) and now they are expected to break into the top 25.

For the Bulldogs, there are two main challenges, one on the field and the other off. They must not suffer any letdowns as they'll likely have to remain undefeated to have a shot at a BCS bid. On the other hand, they have to figure out the messy business of how to reschedule the Sept. 14 game at Colorado that was postponed because of severe flooding.

Without that game, Fresno State has a much better chance of going undefeated. However, they will take a hit in the computer rankings because they will not get the benefit from the Buffs' strength of schedule component out of a very competitive Pac-12. If that game is to be made up, of course, the Bulldogs risk a BCS-killing loss in doubtlessly the toughest road game they'll play all year.

We're still in September, though, and the season is just unfolding. An upset loss by Fresno State will render all this moot, but for now, it's the best hope out of teams in conferences not possessing an automatic BCS bid.

That brings us back to Boise State, which certainly looks dead only four weeks into the season. But consider that there is now a MWC championship game and Boise State still controls its own destiny for it, and the fact that thanks to realignment, there really isn't much competition coming out of the MAC, C-USA and Sun Belt (and the WAC is gone), the Broncos are not as dead as you might think.

Suppose the Broncos right the ship and run the table the rest of the way and meet Fresno State again in the MWC title game, but this time they knock off the unbeaten Bulldogs. And also suppose that the Big 12 champ is just not up to snuff and ends up in the high teens in the final BCS standings. Both scenarios are still pretty plausible at this juncture.

In that event, all Boise State has to be is in the Top 16 of the final BCS standings to earn the buster bid in the BCS's final season. Even with two losses, it's not that far-fetched. Just remember, last year, Northern Illinois was ranked No. 26 in the BCS standings only two weeks before it surprisingly snapped up the BCS buster bid after upsetting Kent State in the MAC title game.

So resist the impulse to believe Boise State is already finished. Like the villain in a bad action movie, you can never be sure he's dead until the credits are rolling, and even then...